How Should St. Louis Play Their Outfield Cards?

The St. Louis Cardinals have scuffled in the early going. Even after a win against the Mariners on Sunday, their record stands at a paltry 9-13. Through the weekend, their 2.2-win dip in projected win total has been the sixth-largest decrease since the season began, and among serious contenders, their performance looks even worse: the Cards’ 22.2% decrease in divisional odds has been the league’s largest, bypassing the second-place Yankees (-19.3%), who’ve had to deal with the Rays’ historic start. Further, the Cardinals’ 18.6% drop in playoff odds is second only to the White Sox (-20.1%), who’ve played even worse at 7-15. But what’s plaguing the Redbirds?

We knew that their starting pitching was a weakness coming into the season, and it’s been even worse than advertised. We pegged their starting staff as the 20th-best during our positional power rankings, and they’re 26th in both ERA and WAR, and aren’t much better by FIP (24th), even after a stellar Sunday performance from Jack Flaherty. Though we anticipated his absence at the time, perhaps we underestimated the impact that Adam Wainwright’s early-season injury recovery would have on the staff as a whole. Nevertheless, the Cards’ pitching woes have been within our margin for error. On the other hand, their lack of outfield production has been more surprising.

Going from left to right field, we ranked the Cards 15th, eighth, and ninth in our positional power rankings. Their outfield bats have been solid if unspectacular thus far, with their 104 wRC+ tying for 13th in the league. Yet, their defense has dragged them down: by OAA, UZR, and DRS, they tie for 25th, have sole possession of 26th, and are in a four-way tie for 23rd, respectively. That all adds up to a WAR figure of just 0.3, good (or bad) for 21st in the league.

While all of the usual small sample caveats apply, especially when it comes to defensive metrics, most of the Cardinals outfield folly is due to rookie Jordan Walker, who made headlines earlier this season for starting his major league career off with a 12-game hitting streak. I hate to nitpick the performance of an exciting young player, but he had just one hit in nine of those 12 games, and he never had more than two. All told, his 101 wRC+ on the season hasn’t been enough to outweigh his poor defense. Among 63 qualified outfielders this season, his -3 OAA is tied for last, his -3.2 UZR is flat-out last, and his -5 DRS is tied for second-worst.

Walker’s 70-grade arm has flashed upside, as its strength places him third on Statcast’s leaderboard among the 48 outfielders with at least 50 throws. His max velocity is also tops among that group at 100.2 mph. But his throwing decisions and accuracy have been poor, leading to below average numbers by UZR’s ARM and DRS’ rARM components. Here’s an example of a throw that nearly granted Corbin Carroll an extra base after a double:

This play also drew my attention to another aspect of Walker’s defense that has been lagging: his jumps. On the Carroll double, Walker was headed in the right direction, but he didn’t cover much ground and in the end he got turned around. The same thing happened on another double, this one off the bat of Charlie Blackmon:

The end of the video is cutoff, but you get the gist: Walker had a slow jump and got turned around once again, but this time he had a legitimate chance to make the play. Statcast’s outfield jump leaderboards confirm my observations: among 84 qualified outfielders, Walker is tied for the ninth-worst “reaction” and the 17th-worst “burst,” but he also ties for the fourth-best route. Reaction and burst look only at the number of feet covered in the first three seconds after a ball is hit, in any direction, while route weights feet covered in the right direction more. A third baseman by trade, Walker is still tentative in the outfield with his first steps after contact; he likely wants to make sure that he’s going in the right direction. While he’s been successful in that regard, he just isn’t getting to his spots fast enough: all components considered, his jumps have cost him an estimated 1.2 feet on average.

Despite their slow start, the Cardinals are still a competitive squad. Given that, it doesn’t make much sense for Walker to work out the kinks in his defense with the major league team. Even though he has little to prove with the bat, if he doesn’t improve in the field soon, they might want to consider a demotion. But who would take over right field in his stead?

Lars Nootbaar will certainly take up one spot on the grass — after putting up 2.5 WAR in just 347 plate appearances last season, the lefty slugger is off to a blistering start this year, hitting to a 178 wRC+ in 36 plate appearances sandwiching a thumb injury, with starts across the outfield. His return from said injury is part of what makes the outfield picture in St. Louis so complex, but he also looks like their most solid option at this point. DRS, UZR, and OAA all see Nootbaar’s glove as above average, too, largely due to the strength of his arm, which tied for the third and fifth-most valuable according to rARM and ARM last year. He also ranked 19th among the 156 outfielders with at least 100 throws on the outfield arm strength leaderboard last season. So, Nootbaar can slot into right with his cannon.

Meanwhile, Tyler O’Neill is probably best suited for center field duty. His biggest strength lies in the amount of ground he can cover: according to UZR’s range component, RngR, he’s been the sixth-rangiest outfielder with 10.4 range runs above average among the 48 players with at least 2,000 innings on the grass since 2020, when O’Neill began playing regularly. That also factors in his merely average range from last year, when he was dealing with a variety of leg injuries. Now healthy, he’s primed for outfield captain duty, and while his wOBA so far his matched last year’s disappointing .307 mark, xwOBA thinks his bat is coming around as well: his .356 mark so far is 25 points better than last year’s.

As for left field, Alec Burleson has led the Cards in starts there with 12 thus far, most of which he racked up while Nootbaar sat out. A 45 FV prospect, most of Burleson’s upside hinges on his bat. This year in 66 plate appearances, he’s hit at a .343 wOBA clip, with a .350 xWOBA to boot. The verdict is still out on his glove in the outfield, however, as he’s graded out as average according to DRS and slightly below average according to UZR and OAA in his major league career. Burleson is a lefty, so if his fielding ends up below average as expected (Eric Longenhagen gave him a 30/40 grade there this offseason), the Cards should really only expect his bat to prop up his glove against right-handers. Dylan Carlson, who’s mashed lefties to the tune of a 140 wRC+ in 305 career plate appearances (compared to just an 89 wRC+ vs. righties in 968 plate appearances), seems like a logical platoon partner and fourth outfielder who can also sub in on defense given his plus glove.

Carlson hasn’t hit well this year, mustering just a 49 wRC+ through 47 plate appearances. But let’s not forget that he graduated in 2021 as a 60 FV prospect and he’s accrued 5.3 WAR over the past two seasons. Not to mention, his .301 xWOBA this year, on par with last season’s figure, paints a rosier picture of his offensive production thus far. Additionally, his plate discipline has been trending in the right direction, as he’s posted a career-best chase rate in the early going while simultaneously notching his highest rate of swings on pitches in the zone, not to mention his second-best contact rate:

If the Cardinals aren’t ready to give up on Carlson, he’s best suited to be their fourth outfielder. That said, he would probably generate considerable trade interest as a buy-low; the Cardinals could dangle him in the hopes of landing another starting pitcher. If the Redbirds do stick with Walker, it will probably be at Carlson’s expense, as he’ll be relegated to fifth outfielder status, slipping below Burleson on the depth chart. Keeping Carlson in that spot wouldn’t be in St. Louis’s best interest, as I think that he can still be productive and it would also lessen his trade value should he be shopped.

Not to mention, Burleson is in the midst of establishing himself as a quality major league bat, and forcing him to the bench won’t do him any favors either. But that’s likely where he’s headed now that Nootbaar has returned. In case you were wondering, there aren’t many DH at-bats to go around either, as another former top prospect, Nolan Gorman, failed to stick at second base but appears poised to break out offensively minus his trademark head “thwack.”

As things stand, it’s still very early in the season, and the Cardinals’ playoff odds still stand at a decent 48%. In other words, they have room to continue the Jordan Walker right fielder experiment for a little while longer. At the same time, they’re already six games back of the Brewers, not to mention 6.5 behind the upstart Pirates. Soon enough, there might be a serious rift between what’s best for Walker’s continued development and what’s best for the Cardinals’ mission to field their best team possible while Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are still productive.