Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 4/4/22

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat.

Ben Clemens: If I’m slow responding for a bit at the start, sorry! I’m finishing up some PPR’s for tomorrow, which is not good practice but unavoidable when pitching rankings move around so much late

Ben Clemens: Let’s talk baseball

171: Being an Orioles fan really sucks right now.

Ben Clemens: It’s not great!

Ben Clemens: I’d like to tell you that the future is bright and that you should focus on that, and honestly, that’s true

Ben Clemens: The prospect crop is quite good

Ben Clemens: But the O’s have sucked for a LONG time, and they’re not going to be good this year, and they probably won’t be good next year

Ben Clemens: I’d find it very frustrating to root for them

Ben Clemens: Deciding not to try to win any major league games for six years or whatever is just gross

Prospects Not Active: Who will end up with more AB at SS for Cleveland, Giminez or Ahmed Rosario?

Ben Clemens: I’ll go with Gimenez, though impressive work misspelling both names 🙂

Ben Clemens: I think that Amed will get traded during the season

Ben Clemens: He makes too much money and is too close to free agency. Unless the Guardians are unexpectedly in a playoff race, I think he’ll see the door

the lunch question guy: What’s for lunch?

Ben Clemens: My wife did some meal prepping yesterday, so today’s is one of those: baked tofu and veggies with rice and tahini sauce

Pablo: Hi Ben: should warm weather (and dome teams) all open up with like 10-game home stands to start the season?

Ben Clemens: I think they should have a disproportionate amount of home games, but I do think that there’s something to every team having a home opener in the first week of the season

Ben Clemens: Maybe one on, one off, three on in terms of series for warm weather teams

Robbie: Are there numbers on the relative effectiveness of six man rotations, or do the individual components make general opinions on it impossible?

Ben Clemens: Here’s one I wrote last year

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-costs-and-benefits-of-six-man-rotation…

Ben Clemens: I’m generally in favor of six man rotations

Ben Clemens: I think that if you have some transcendent pitchers at the top and not much depth, you should definitley not do it

Ben Clemens: But otherwise, the rewards are decent

Chip: Given the light return for Manaea, do you think one or two guys from the 6-10 in the Yankees system gets it done for Montas?

Ben Clemens: I don’t; the A’s have gotten their payroll SO low, and Montas has an extra year of control remaining

Ben Clemens: I think that the A’s probably needed to trade Manaea before they paid him a dime this year given what they moved him for

Ben Clemens: But Montas makes less, their salary is now lower, and he’s a better trade chip

Ben Clemens: I always thought that they’d start wildly high on Manaea and then just keep going down until they found a bid

Ben Clemens: I don’t think they’ll do that with Montas and Murphy

RJD: how does depth charts project the yankees to produce the highest war but the projected standings have them 4th best record? They are projected to finish below the jays (6+ more WAR than the jays). I get schedule plays a part, but arent the jays playing the same schedule? That feels kinda off

Ben Clemens: The WAR is what’s weird, basically; against a neutral schedule, we’re projecting the Jays for a higher winning percentage. I’m gonna look into the WAR and see what’s going on there

Ben Clemens: It’s not the schedule, in other words; we think the Jays are a higher win percentage team. I do agree it’s weird that they have more projected WAR given that, I don’t quite get why so I’ll take a look

Iso: Are you on the Jesus Luzardo hype train?

Ben Clemens: I am

Ben Clemens: Or, well, I don’t know what you mean by that, but I think he’s a great upside candidate

Ben Clemens: I don’t think he’s a lock to turn into an ace or anything but I think he has a ~40% chance at being the best of the pitchers who were on Oakland’s staff last year

Ben Clemens: Which is pretty solid given Bassitt, Montas, and Manaea

Random: What are your expectations for Aaron Ashby this season? Do you think he sticks in the rotation all season?

Ben Clemens: I don’t; I think he’ll bounce back and forth, but when he’s in relief, I think he’ll be a two-inning type

Ben Clemens: Like Hader as a rookie, that kinda thing

Iso: What should we expect from Hunter Greene this year?

Ben Clemens: Fastballs at 104mph, intermittent control issues, but a really fun ride

Ben Clemens: It’s too bad he cna’t hit

Ben Clemens: (he CAN hit, it’s too bad the new rules allow for a better hitter to replace him)

RTJ: Opening Day this week! What’s a storyline you’re interested to see play out over the first few weeks of the season?

Ben Clemens: I want to see how many absurd starters the Mets run out

Ben Clemens: Tylor Megill might be starting opening day!

Ben Clemens: But I also want to see Julio Rodriguez in the majors, and see what Seiya Suzuki looks like

Appa Yip Yip: Speaking of six man rotations, do you think the Jays pull a six man-lite situation given how much better Ryu and Kikuchi are with extra rest?

Ben Clemens: I think they would be well served to

Ben Clemens: Seems like it would also help Manoah

Ben Clemens: And easing everyone in seems smart

Ben Clemens: You can almost do it with just a five-man rotation in the early going, with all the off days

Ben Clemens: Though the compressed season will make it difficult on the year as a whole

Miles: Do you think the Mariners over-rewarded Julio’s spring training, or is he ready to contribute?

Ben Clemens: Absolutely not

Ben Clemens: If they want to make the playoffs this year, they need to have him on the roster from day one

Ben Clemens: He’s their best outfielder with the possible exception of Haniger

Ben Clemens: Keeping him down would be ignoring his current talent level on purpose to save some money

Ben Clemens: Now look, a majority of the teams in the league do that

Ben Clemens: If you think Oneil Cruz is down so he can work on his left field defense, I have some cryptocurrency to sell you

Ben Clemens: But no, this isn’t over-reacting to spring. It’s not a hot take that Rodriguez will probably out-hit Dylan Moore

Roctober: Are you buying into a Brendan Rodgers breakout season?

Ben Clemens: Nah, but I think he’ll be an above average regular

Ben Clemens: So is that yes?

Ben Clemens: I’m starting to think he’ll never really elevate the ball

Ben Clemens: But I think he’ll get a lot of playing time and he hits it hard

troybruno: given the moving pieces (extra weeks of contribution, % chance of 1yr service time, % chance of draft picks) — what is the “breakeven” level a prospect needs to be in order for it to be in a teams best interests to have him on the OD roster?

Ben Clemens: That’s a more complex question than I can answer in a chat — has a lot to do with the team’s position on the win curve though

Ben Clemens: I think that the most likely outcome is that if a team isn’t contending, they should just keep the guy down until July no matter what

Ben Clemens: It sucks, but if you’re profit-maximizing, that draft pick isn’t worth the service time lost

Ben Clemens: So you should just make sure they don’t accidentally win ROY by doing what the Rays did to Franco last year

Ben Clemens: and keeping them down so long they won’t even qualify for S2

Didace: Who will be the Mets’ top two starting pitchers this year? deGrom is basically finished and Scherzer has already started to feel the lolMets curse.

Ben Clemens: Basically finished??

Ben Clemens: I’ll take deGrom and Scherzer

Ben Clemens: And I’ll see you in September to settle up

Teddy: Thoughts on Cashman sounding off (again) on the ‘17 Astros? Feels strange on the eve of releasing the sealed Yankees letter.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, uh, it’s dumb?

Ben Clemens: He’s entitled to say whatever he wants, of course

Ben Clemens: But I don’t think that’s how World Series titles work

Peter: The star seems to have dimmed on Jarred Kelenic a bit. What do you see for him in 2022?

Ben Clemens: I think he’ll be a roughly average regular; not in love with the defense, think he’ll improve quite a bit with the bat though

Ben Clemens: He’ll be well served by a corner role, I think he probably will not get on base enough to really excel though

Sleaux: Do you think the Padres do anything they can to move Hosmer by the end of the midseason trade deadline? I can’t see them wanting to stomach the next couple years with how many times they’ve tried to move him.

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll fail to move him unless the Mets get really desperate for pitching

Ben Clemens: There’s just not much appetite for him across the league

Jeff in Jersey: What would your take have been on Dom Smith for Paddack, Pagan, and $6m of Hosmer for the next four years? I get that Hosmer’s a poison pill Paddack and Pagan have value.

Ben Clemens: I wouldn’t have done it, but I see why the Mets might have

Ben Clemens: I like Smith quite a bit, though he really is surplus given the strange construction of their roster

Ben Clemens: Basically I’m pretty low on Paddack

Ben Clemens: And if you don’t think  Paddack is much more than a fifth starter, I don’t get the trade at all. Add a guy who will probably be a pain in the clubhouse because he wants to start but is hardly playing, and add money, and actually get WORSE on offense?

Ben Clemens: All for a fifth starter and a mid-leverage reliever?

Ben Clemens: No thanks

Peter: Jay Bruce reasonable comp for Kelenic then?

Ben Clemens: Younger Jay Bruce, but I like that, yeah

Armadillofury: Do you think Dalbec can pop 40 HR?

Ben Clemens: Can? Yes

Ben Clemens: Will? No

Ben Clemens: Not this year at least

Juliooooo: J-Rod over/under 4 WAR rookie season?

Ben Clemens: I’ll take the under, but that’s just b/c I’m a loser who hews to closely to expected value

Ben Clemens: I think that a decent amount of his distribution is over; his range of outcomes is huge

Ben Clemens: It’s really hard to pinpoint his talent level b/c he just hit .362/.461/.448 in Double-A

Ben Clemens: And that’s the first time he’s played above A ball ever

Ben Clemens: What does that look like? It’s a guess

Ben Clemens: We actually have his Depth Charts projection at 4.1 WAR but ehhhhhh

Ben Clemens: That gives him a lot of credit for great defense

Ben Clemens: I wouldn’t be surprised if he puts up 5 WAR; I wouldn’t be surprised if he puts up 2

Matt (Oceanside): I understand that spring stats typically don’t mean anything, but do you think the Dodgers are worried that Betts, Muncy, J.Turner, and Bellinger are all hitting very poorly this spring. Or, maybe just worried about Bellinger? Mookie looks pretty rough to me although he did have a late start to ST? What say you?

Ben Clemens: I think they’re worried about Bellinger and Turner

Ben Clemens: Bellinger b/c uh, have you watched him?

Ben Clemens: It looks bad!

Ben Clemens: The stats aren’t hugely important, i don’t think, but his incessant tinkering and just pure “what the heck am I doing out here?” vibe is bad

Ben Clemens: Turner just because he’s getting old and was hurt at the end of last year

Ben Clemens: I’m not really worried about Mookie, like you said he got a late start

A’s: Does Montas get traded before opening day?

Ben Clemens: 10% chance

Ben Clemens: As I said above, I think that Manaea’s trade actually lowers the urgency to move Montas because of the money

Jim: What’s next for deGrom? Come back in two months and hope nothing breaks again?

Ben Clemens: Yeah basically

Ben Clemens: If it weren’t such a tight division race I think this would actually help him?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think he’s ever going to be a 200 inning guy again, sitting out the first two months is preferable to the last two

Appa Yip Yip: Montas at the deadline after a contender loses an important arm to injury?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, or even in May

Guest: At what point do the A’s stop taking pu pu platters for their best players?

Ben Clemens: I think people are too down on the Manaea return because they are too high on Manaea

Ben Clemens: A year of an above average starter is not bad, but if you’re doing some kind of surplus value calculation type deal, it’s not an earth-shattering value

Ben Clemens: The guy has a career 3.9 ERA and 4 FIP in one of the best pitcher’s parks in the game

Ben Clemens: His value is in above-average quality with bulk quantity, which is nice, but for only a year of that you’re not getting Anthony Volpe or anything

Ben Clemens: Absolutely hated the Chapman trade, but I think the issue there was similar; his recent stats have been scary

Ben Clemens: I liked the Olson return just fine

Ben Clemens: If you take for granted that the A’s are unwilling to pay a dime of money in retention on Manaea, I just don’t think they were ever going to get a haul

Adam: Playoff Odds page has 6 teams at >80% to make the playoffs: LA, Tor, Atl, Hou, NYY, Mil.  If you had to pick one of those to flame out and finish below .500, who you got?

Ben Clemens: The Brewers. It’s for two reasons. First, I think playoff odds are weirdly high on their talent level. Dan’s doing ZiPS playoff odds for later this week, and I expect them to be meaningfully lower there

Ben Clemens: Second, it’s a lot easier to finish below .500 when you start at winning a crappy division with upper-80’s wins

Ben Clemens: I like the Brewers’ rotation a ton

Ben Clemens: But goodness gracious is their offense bad for a playoff team

Ben Clemens: And their solution was to salary dump Jackie Bradley Jr. and get Andrew McCutchen

Ben Clemens: Like, sure, but I hope there’s more to come in season

171: Can we get an update on your OOTP league?

Ben Clemens: The Dodgers won the World Series!

Ben Clemens: They didn’t win their division, but they went on a rampage and won it all

Ben Clemens: Coelho is overjoyed

Ben Clemens: The Yankees are fuming

Ben Clemens: Isaac Paredes was my best player but I just traded him for a 60 FV pitching prospect and a 55FV reliever

Ben Clemens: It was a pretty thrilling year, and we expanded the playoffs in keeping with MLB, so next year should be fun too

Dan: Should the Dodgers worry that Kimbrel has been lousy in spring training, had a bad 2nd half in 2021, wasn’t very good in 2020, wasn’t very good in 2019, and had a lousy 2nd half (and playoffs) in 2018?

Ben Clemens: Uh, yes

Ben Clemens: On the other hand, a lot of the way you end up with a good bullpen is accumulate a lot of maybe’s

Ben Clemens: And I like Kimbrel from that standpoit

Ben Clemens: He was pretty awesome in the first half last year

BettsBellingerCaruso: Dodgers not addressing the starting rotation means

1. They think (redacted) is going to play
2. They’re really bullish on Bobby Miller who apparently hit 102 mph
3. Other

Ben Clemens: I think it’s a mix of all three

Ben Clemens: It’s also a bit of ‘hey if 1 and 2 don’t happen by July we’ll go trade for Montas or something’

Ben Clemens: Why not defer your decision if you can?

BD: Padres say Blake Snell is behind in his ramp-up, and has limited innings for the first few weeks. What do you expect out of him in April, and for the year?

Ben Clemens: I’m pretty high on Snell’s rate stats this year

Ben Clemens: I’m definitely worried about the innings totals

Ben Clemens: But he was looking excellent before getting hurt last year

Ben Clemens: Highly recommend this BP article on it if you have a membershpi

Ben Clemens: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/69352/bullpen-session-…

The Real Ben Clemens: Trout/Ohtani/Rendon all being in the lineup together for 100 games. You taking the over/under?

Ben Clemens: Ooh, this is a good way to think of this question

Ben Clemens: The smart money is the under

Ben Clemens: I’ll take the over

ben simmons’ jumper: Paddack being shopped, Lance Lynn’s knee is gimpy, Paddack to CHW for Elijah Tatis?

Ben Clemens: Ah yes, because the White Sox have had such success trading Tatises to San Diego

Sean: Kepler for Darvish / Myers

Ben Clemens: Why would the Padres make this trade?

Ben Clemens: They’re out acquiring pitching still

Ben Clemens: Also, would the Twins take on that much money?

Ben Clemens: This one is a strange one

RTJ: Speaking of Kimbrel, how high are you on Graterol?

Ben Clemens: Very

Ben Clemens: I think that he’s worked out how to use his sinker in the majors, which was kinda holding him back before

Ben Clemens: Really high on his long-term relief ace potential

Adam: OK flip side: <10% playoff odds, if I told you one of these teams is winning 92 games this year, who you got?  Det, KC, Tex, Cin, CHC, Was, Oak, Pit, Ari, Col, Bal.

Ben Clemens: Oh, I like this one

Ben Clemens: I think I’ll take Detroit. There are a lot of young players with big error bars, and the ALC could really fall apart around them

Ben Clemens: Not something I think will happen, but I can see it working for them

Ben Clemens: In some worlds

5 Run Homer: I still have this gut feeling that Jose Ramirez is gonna end up in Toronto by opening day, or at least at the trade deadline. That’s probably wrong, right?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s not very likely, it’s one of those weird rumors where there keeps being smoke but very little evidence of any fire

beatsie boys: Best 2022 season:  Hunter Greene, Tylor Megill, or Matt Brash?

Ben Clemens: Megill for me

Ben Clemens: I think all three will be good though

Ben Clemens: But I dunno, I am a little worried about Greene’s strike throwing and Brash’s… well, yeah, strike throwing

Yankees: Who will provide the second most value of any Yankee pitcher this year?

Ben Clemens: Oh man, would be a good troll to say Gerrit Cole

Ben Clemens: But I’ll go Jordan Montgomery

Yankees: I feel like if it was Cole it would likelier be some astonishing breakout than Cole just being bad

Ben Clemens: Yeah very likely

Ben Clemens: Or Cole getting hurt in July or something

Josh: Re <10% playoff odds: I feel like the Cubs are the flipside to your Brewers answer. If Suzuki hits, and theres a Hendricks bounceback, they could be interesting. (I dont think they will make the playoffs, but it doesnt feel totally bonkers to me.)

Ben Clemens: I considered them, but wow do I hate their pitching

Ben Clemens: Like, it is REALLY bad

Fangraph’s Lurker: Is it okay to buy in to Noah Syndergaard?

Ben Clemens: Yes, so long as you include a caveat about health

Don: Am I crazy for being higher on Julio Rodriguez than Bobby Witt Jr.? I know the prospect team here has put a 65 on both of them, but Witt Jr. scares me a lot more than Rodriguez.

Ben Clemens: Nah, I don’t think so

Ben Clemens: But I also wouldn’t say you were crazy if you thought the opposite

Ben Clemens: Error bands are very wide with both

Teddy: Who of the Astros #3-6 starters are you highest on this year (Framber, Urquidy, Garcia, Odo)?

Ben Clemens: Well, I have Framber as their co-#1, so him

Todd Bonzalez: Do you think the Reds made the right move cutting bait with Akiyama?

Ben Clemens: Boy, I’m not sure

Ben Clemens: I’ve been thinking about this one a lot

Ben Clemens: Since the move was announced

Ben Clemens: I’d like it a lot more if it weren’t mostly to give Tyler Naquin and Colin Moran more at-bats

Ben Clemens: But it’s not a huge misstep or anything

Ben Clemens: He really just did not look like a difference-maker ever

Guest: How good is Soto at defense?

Ben Clemens: I think he’s an above-average defender in the corner outfield

Ben Clemens: He’s got acceptable instincts, he’s not slow, and he has a plus arm

Guest: Did you play baseball in college?

Ben Clemens: Nope

Ben Clemens: Not in high school, either

copecru: Will Steven Kwan have 450 AB this year?

Ben Clemens: Yes

Ben Clemens: I think? I dunno, but let’s say yes, more fun that way and he’d be an awesome ROY candidate

Guest: Who’s the most underrated hitter in MLB of the last decade or so? Off the top of your head.

Ben Clemens: First name I thought of was Corey Dickerson

Ben Clemens: But I can probably do better

Ben Clemens: Brandon Lowe?

Ben Clemens: Dickerson has a career 114 wRC+ and was pretty good for a number of years in a row, but I think most people couldn’t pick him out of a lineup

171: Chris Davis’ peak was pretty amazing.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, but he was properly rated then

joe: Bailey Ober’s fastball seems to have a lot of Joe Ryan in it, why the disparity in hype between the two?

Ben Clemens: No idea

Ben Clemens: I think of them as very similar

Adam: Will we get an Opening Day mega-chat this year?

Ben Clemens: Oh yes

Ben Clemens: Two sets, actually

Ben Clemens: Nothing like celebrating finishing a huge batch of power rankings by chatting

Armadillofury: Do you think great hitters with below avg raw power like Bregman and Rendon whose power played up due to the juiced ball will continue to produce at the same level now?

Ben Clemens: I do not!

Ben Clemens: I’m very very worried about Rendon’s power output

Ben Clemens: When I did some rudimentary calculations to “de-juice” the ball in 2018, Rendon would have been the biggest loser of the change

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/taking-home-runs-back-to-2015/

Ben Clemens: The top 10 was some Dodgers (Bellinger, Betts, Turner, Freeman), Rendon, Bregman, Belt, Castellanos, and J.D. Martinez

Ben Clemens: oh and Eduardo Escobar? Weird

baseball Randay: Hi Ben, is there a reasonable way to fix projections for teams like the Rays and Giants? I have no confidence that any of their positional power rankings will finish below 10-15 and yet I don’t think the Giants have one in the top 10? (maybe short stop?)

Ben Clemens: I can tell you that the Giants have a top 10 rotation projection

Ben Clemens: But eh, depends what you mean by ‘fix’ because some of that is by design, and some of it is because of computational limitations

Ben Clemens: We run our Depth Charts live during the season; playoff odds are updating all the time

Ben Clemens: Really hard to have a complex system that accounts for injury and variance and all that and then also run it all the time, though we’ve looked into it at times (with help from helpful and smart readers)

Ben Clemens: It’s something we’d love to work on in an ideal world but there are always more things to do first

Color Coordinator: Hi Ben! Thanks for the chat. If you were starting an expansion team and your only two colors choices for the team’s “main” color were Fuchsia and Teal which would you choose? What would you accent colors be?

Ben Clemens: Oh man, fuchsia would be awsome

Ben Clemens: I’d go with that, and maybe blakc and white in accent colors?

Luke: Who was/is one of your favorite players to watch? Not necessarily the best, but someone you just enjoyed watching play? Josh Hamilton was one of mine. Oddly enjoyed watching Erik Bedard pitch in Seattle too. Soft spot for soft tossing lefties, I guess.

Ben Clemens: I love Carlos Martinez

Ben Clemens: He throws all these random pitches and is fun on the mound and everything is just a blast to watch

Ben Clemens: Except when he’s scuffling, then he seems sad and it’s no fun

Bill: You had Julio’s 2021 AA slash line at .362/.461/.448 in an above answer – but it was actually .362/.461/.546… The .448 SLG you referenced was his wOBA.Dude is gonna rake – his EV’s in spring training are Giancarlo like!

Ben Clemens: Ha whoops

Ben Clemens: I didn’t proofread,  .448 would make VERY little sense as a slugging percentage

Guest: Not a question, but Josh Hamilton’s ascension and plummet was astonishing

BettsBellingerCaruso: Re: Underrated

I think of prime Choo when I hear “underrated player” of the late ’00s-early 2010s lol

Ben Clemens: Very good one too

Matt: What are you more interested to see about the Phillies…their lineup, the terrible defense, or the possibility of another terrible bullpen?

Ben Clemens: The defense by a MILE

Ben Clemens: I have a feeling that they’ll have some trainwreck games

Ben Clemens: The Phillies have actually already produced my favorite defensive viewing of the last five years when they made Vince Velasquez play left field for a game and he was pretty good

Ben Clemens: But they might top that this year

Adam: It’s getting lonely on the Franchy Train.  Any hope at all for me?

Ben Clemens: I think the train has come to a half, sadly

Ben Clemens: halt*

Ben Clemens: Alright, I need to get back to writing, and also resting my tired tired fingers. I just finished up starting rotations 1-15, and I’ll probably have some editing to do on them later, plus I think it’s time someone wrote about the atrocious decision to demote Oneil Cruz for the enrichment of Bob Nutting

Ben Clemens: Have a great few days everyone, and get ready for baseball on Thursday!!!!