Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 4/6/26

2:02
Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat. I’m going to try to answer a good amount of specific player questions today, plus anything about my ‘upgrades’ article from today, plus whatever other normal chatting nonsense we get up to. But if I don’t get to your player-specific question (and especially if it’s “and how important is what we’ve seen so far”) know that my default answer is “it hasn’t been many games, nothing is real yet”

2:02
Ben: Is the Nats bullpen really as bad as it looks? I really don’t think a single one of their guys would be on a winning roster. How did this happen?

2:03
Ben Clemens: Hm…. This one, I think, might be real. I just looked at our rest-of-season WAR projections and it took me a second to find the Nats because they’re the only team behind ‘unsigned free agents’ in reliever WAR

2:03
Ben Clemens: um, ouch

2:03
Ben Clemens: I very much doubt he’s reading this, but one of my best friends went to yesterday’s game and had to leave when it was 6-1 Nats. 8-6 Dodgers, final. what the hell

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2:04
Guest: Should every hitter wear some type of glasses/contacts that helps them see the ball better? I’m sure they all have great eyesight, but wouldn’t there be an even bigger advantage to be had with additional sight aides?

2:04
Ben Clemens: I mean…. I am always wondering about this too!

2:04
Ben Clemens: To me, obviously yes. But like, also, probably to every Driveline employee, also yes? And yet we haven’t heard of a wave of this sweeping the majors. So I’m guessing it’s actually a complex issue

2:05
12 to 6: james tibbs iii mvps over/under – ten? ok, the smallest of sample sizes, but seriously; first round pick and good pedigree, dodgers development team worked with him to incorporate a justin turner-esqe timing step to his swing, he murdered the ball in spring training, and has obviously obliterated the minors so far. what did la actually find/fix here?

2:06
Ben Clemens: This is a fun one. I’ve always really liked Tibbs, and I didn’t really understand why a)the Red Sox let him go b)they traded for him if they didn’t value him highly

2:06
Ben Clemens: so I don’t know, I’m not a reliable narrator here is my point

2:07
Ben Clemens: I am like “okay yes it worked he’s a top 50 prospect” without needing to be convinced. But I guess what i’d say is that this is an interesting start to me because it agrees with a lot of my pre-conceived notions about how good his profile already looked

2:07
Ben Clemens: so take it with a grain of salt, but if you have pre-existing views and early-season results confirm them, that’s a much better sign that something is right than just looking at a random early-season result and assuming significance

2:08
matt w: Looking for a milquetoast response here. If I’m Boston, should I be worried about regression when one of my starters has an ERA under 3 but an xERA over 5?

2:08
Ben Clemens: Oh, that I can do. To me, Boston’s biggest worry is the fact that they just have a bad record now.

2:08
Ben Clemens: was really good, and I took it to heart

2:09
Ben Clemens: My thing today about upgrades, which I also take to heart because I mean, I wrote it, why wouldn’t I: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/let-me-upgrade-you-small-improvements-with…

2:09
Ben Clemens: That would say that they need to upgrade shortstop, or I suppose left-side infielder if you’re down on Durbin

2:11
Ben Clemens: I think the pitching is just fine, because I thought it was the best rotation in baseball before the season and very few games have happened since then. But I do think that the combination of a slow start and some holes (infield, basically) means that they should do something

2:11
Mom: Hi Ben

2:11
Ben Clemens: Hi mom

2:11
bosoxforlife: The Giants appear to be in trouble. The icing on the pile was Matt Chapman getting thrown out trying to steal after leading off the 9th with a single. It was as incomprehensible as Babe Ruth being thrown out to end the 1926 WS.

2:12
Ben Clemens: Yeah, that was not a great look. Chapman had a bad series overall. The Giants are like a budget version of the Red Sox situation. Their early start doesnt’ change how I view the team, but it does matter, and so they should do something about it because their chances of making the playoffs have gone down and are at risk of evaporating.

2:13
Ben Clemens: Their upgrade would be SP, or alternately a real bat, speaking of which:

2:13
clydethedog: when do you think Bryce Eldridge gets the MLB nod?

2:14
Ben Clemens: I’m pretty confused by this. I mean, they just think he isn’t ready. That’s the only explanation for them playing a Casey Schmitt/Jerar Encarnacion “platoon” at first

2:16
Ben Clemens: I just don’t know what else to say. They must just not think he’s ready. His early-season stats in AAA are not super encouraging, still a ton of swing and miss and not much power so far

2:16
Ben: What are your thoughts on the trade-offs between pushing a prospect so that you might get a draft pick versus giving them enough time to develop?  Do you think there are reverse incentives on the other-end?  Meaning if I don’t call up the prospect right away, I am going to wait till 44 days left in the season (especially if I am not in playoff race).

2:17
Ben Clemens: I think it’s contextual to each prospect’s development. I was thinking about this in regards to JJ Wetherholt. So, he basically hasn’t failed at any level. When’s the last time he was bad? Is it literally never?

2:17
Ben Clemens: So, I didn’t think they were doing a ton for him by leaving him in Triple-A to start the season. I think it would generally be useful for prospects to get exposed to something they can’t handle and learn how to adapt to that

2:17
Ben Clemens: So, incentives? Aligned

2:18
Ben Clemens: But yes, you can definitely imagine prospects who aren’t ready, but who get pushed for PPI reasons. I don’t have an example off the top of my head. And the tail-end thing definitely happens. If you’re not in the playoff race, you just do a September call-up like in the old days. But I do think that’s mostly fine. It’s likely way after Super2 deadline, and possibly after a deadline to even count for super 2, at that point

2:19
Cube Jockey: Worried about Nick Kurtz yet, or it’s April?

2:20
Ben Clemens: Definitely just April. I’d love to see him start either chasing less or attacking early more, which I think is a weakness typical of someone who storms through the minors without ever failing

2:20
Bullpen Upgrades: I was hoping to see relievers in your upgrade article today. Was it just too hard for any 1 reliever to make an impact on the playoff odds, or were they fully excluded from the exercise?

2:20
Ben Clemens: So they were fully excluded, but largely because I think that it’s too hard for any one reliever to make an impact on the playoff odds

2:21
Ben Clemens: I’m not saying it’s impossible for that to be the case in real life. But I know how OUR odds work. And the relievers just aren’t going to move them enough

2:22
Ben Clemens: Now, is there evidence that closer upgrades move playoff races a huge amount? I’ve never seen any, I guess I could look into it someday but it seems hard to measure. But our model is just a distillation of statistics to approximate reality, and if this effect exists, we definitely miss it

2:22
Jeremy: Wheeler’s velocity is way down in his rehab starts compared to pre-injury. How much should Phillies fans be sweating the possibility that Wheeler’s done as an elite starter? I mean, how much more should we be sweating, compared to before Wheeler’s rehab starts?

2:22
Ben Clemens: I t hink this is one of those ‘he has five starts to get some velo back, but boy, I wish he’d done it by now’ kinds of situations

2:22
Ben Clemens: like, you should feel a little more worried, because the odds have changed. But he’s not cooked or anything.

2:23
Big Buckston: Hey Ben, you encouraged me to go to Camden Yards to watch my Twins open the season a few weeks ago when I was feeling gloomy and down about the team, and thank you for doing that! I had a great time and it’s a beautiful park, and I even chose to go to the one game MN won!

2:23
Ben Clemens: Amazing, I’m glad to hear it. My dad was at Camden this weekend and loved it

2:23
Ben Clemens: er, last weekend? regardless

2:24
Guest: Bradish’s stuff is down a bit, but the velo is there. Any concerns from an overall optimistic outlook, or is this just one really bad start?

2:25
Ben Clemens: Yeah, I feel as good about him as I did before the year. I happen to have watched that start (I bet a lot of people did, it was Konnor Griffin’s debut) and eh, it happens. He looked fine

2:25
Petey Bienel: “But yes, you can definitely imagine prospects who aren’t ready, but who get pushed for PPI reasons. I don’t have an example off the top of my head. Dylan Crews

2:25
Ben Clemens: great one

2:26
Ben Clemens: just looked back through his gamelogs, this is what I’m talking about

2:26
Guest: Pages – might not finish with a wRC+ of 267…but seems like he’s made some swing approach changes. More A+ swings, chasing less, etc. Posed for a “breakout”?

2:26
Ben Clemens: yeah I’m liking the approach. I wrote about how I like his overall plan at the plate last year

2:27
Ben Clemens: Basically, his swing is great for Dodgers stadium and has a good plan overall: pull side power. And his changes are good for that plan. That sounds good. But yeah, like…. plus hitter, not elite bat

2:27
Bobby K: Ben, I’m still kind of an amateur when it comes to fantasy. What would you say is the best metric / stat right now to focus on this early in the season when picking up and dropping players ? Right now I focus on ISO for power / XWoba & WRC + thank you

2:28
Ben Clemens: I regret to inform you that I am also an amateur when it comes to fantasy baseball. I’m just okay. I don’t have the drive to keep up with the roster churn every week when I’m already doing so much other baseball stuff for my job

2:29
Ben Clemens: but um…. I really like looking at ISO and chase/whiff/swstr stuff early in the year to get an idea of what’s really going on. bat speed/barrel/hard hit rates too, kind of get an overall picture

2:29
Ben Clemens: basically just like ‘are they hitting the ball hard’ and ‘are they swinging at bad pitches too much’

2:29
CrosbyBaseball: How worried should we be about Austin Riley seemingly entering his third straight season of just..not being the same guy that signed the extension?

2:30
Ben Clemens: yeah like, fairly worried. He’s gone from top 20 trade value to off the list entirely and I mean…. I don’t think he’s bad. But I do think the risk that he’s just a good regular, not an All Star, has gone up a ton since the extension

2:30
John: Idea: WPA, but adjusted so that it gives proportionate credit/debit to the defender/pitcher based on hit probability (per statcast), rather than just assigning it all to the pitcher. Thoughts?

2:31
Ben Clemens: I think it wouldn’t really matter enough? Though I understand what you’re saying. But like, the total WPA of an out in the situations where Adell robbed the homers just wasn’t THAT high. I think it’d require some very fancy math and a ton of assumptions, not just ‘oh split the WPA’

2:32
Ben Clemens: because it’s not so much that you turned the PA into an out. It’s that you turned the PA from a homer into an out

2:32
Ben Clemens: and unless you start doing some cooking of your own on the side and re-defining ‘outcome if not caught’ manually, you can’t get that effect right

2:32
Oddball Herrera: It’s the year 2026 and the Twins are platooning Clemens and Austin Martin as their 1 hitter.  Seriously.  Forget Robo Umps, can we just hand filling out lineup cards over to the machines?

2:32
Ben Clemens: I’m required to like Kody Clemens because we have the same last name (no relation)

2:33
Ben Clemens: but yeah… look, really nice utility player. Not an OBP guy

2:34
Ben Clemens: Now Austin Martin, on the other hand? I’d say that’s a little bit of slander. I am not saying he’s the perfect player, but the man does get on base, that’s his carrying tool

2:34
Ben Clemens: if Austin Martin works out, it’ll be as a leadoff hitter, is I guess what I’m saying

2:34
BP: Most baseball players already have elite vision and there’s no sight enhancer that would make any significant difference

2:35
Ben Clemens: sure, seems reasonable to me

2:35
Petey Bienel: The management of Dylan Crews and James Wood are great examples of the “Lerners Are Cheap” viewpoint that simmers among Nats fans. Wood arguably was held down until after the Super 2 deadline when he dominated in the Spring and early season (his oblique end of May was convenient) while Crews was rushed despite holes in order to game for the extra pick.

2:35
Ben Clemens: Yeah, I have heard variations on this from Nats fan friends as well

2:36
Ben Clemens: Wood being seemingly held down is one that sticks in my  mind as a bad look

2:37
War2D2: Ben! I was at the Giants game yesterday, and was struck by just how not-hard Webb throws. He’s not down in Hendricks territory, but he’s knocking on the door. I thought something was wrong but then looked at his history and he’s basically always been around 90-91 with the sinker. He was mostly 89-90 yesterday, but ramped up a couple 4-seamers to 93+ when he was in trouble. What do you think mostly separates a guy like him from the legion of guys out there that can add 3-5mph on top of what he’s throwing? I was thinking of Colin Rea, who throws harder than you’d think, but currently isn’t anything more than a nice-to-have swingman. Is it as simple as pitch shape and baseball IQ, or do you think Webb benefits more than most from having a guy like Bailey behind the plate?

2:37
Ben Clemens: Oh man, an excuse to talk about Logan Webb, well if you insist

2:38
Ben Clemens: Webb’s stuff is down this year, but the models generally like his stuff even though he throws slow. The secondaries are nasty, particularly the change, and his sinker tends to grade out well because its shape just creates a ton of grounders

2:38
Ben Clemens: but yeah, I think he benefits from a few things. Bailey, for sure, because a lot of his pitches produce takes, and he has very good command, so he’s getting the ball near the edge a lot.

2:39
Ben Clemens: Also, that elite command/elite secondaries pairing is rare. Not a lot of sinker-dominant guys walk so few batters

2:40
Ben Clemens: Rea has a career 1.1 GB/FB, Webb is at 2.54

2:40
Ben Clemens: so I think it’s like: the archetype of low-walk groundball pitcher is generally undervalued, because it’s not very flashy

2:40
Ben Clemens: and then Webb happens to be even a little bit of a weird implementation of it in that he doesn’t throw hard

2:41
Chone: Fuzzy one to answer but are we mis-applying season projections after a week or two? I can see extremes being meaningful, but I believe Joe Sheehan has made the argument that a team’s projection should (or does) have baked in various 3-6 stretches that happen to all teams over a season and that taking [current record] + [projected ROS] is not a super applicable way of thinking.

2:41
Ben Clemens: The short answer: I don’t think we are. The long answer: I don’t think we are, because Dan Szymborski just wrote an article about it and I read his article

2:41
John: Not sure I’m understanding. The Adell situation is unique, but in most cases: a ball with 90% catch probability, give 90% of the WPA to the pitcher (for creating a ball with that probability) and 10% to the defender (for closing the gap between probably caught and caught).

2:41
John: Or for one that is 90% catch probability and not caught, do the reverse: 90% debit to the defender, 10% to the pitcher, just using whatever the WPA credit/debit is there.

2:42
Ben Clemens: Oh yeah. I’m just saying that won’t actually give much wPA to home run robberies. You could totally do it though. But wouldn’t you want to do the same with the hits, then? Like if an outfielder misses a 90% catch probability ball, surely that’s his fault

2:42
Guest: Is Caleb Durbin cooked? I mean he’s obviously not gonna be this bad going forward, but you have to think that the smartest org in baseball immediately giving up on him after he ostensibly had a good season is a massive red flag

2:43
hayz11: How much of a runway do you give Caleb Durbin? He doesn’t have the physical tools to fall back on if his swing decisions/plate discipline take a step back like they have. It’s not like the Sox have a lot of great alternatives, but he looks like someone who needs a reset. I think he’ll be ok in the long run, but given their start, the Sox don’t have much time to sit and wait for him to work through it.

2:43
SadSox: Are the Red Sox offensive troubles more Cora not putting together the right lineup or the front offense not getting the guys needed to succeed in the offseason

2:43
Ben Clemens: Lots of variations on this question, sorry I haven’t gotten to them until now, but you guys just have a ton of good questions today

2:44
Ben Clemens: I mean, I don’t think you can give him that much runway on the plate discipline side. Like you said, if that’s not there, how is this working?

2:45
Ben Clemens: I don’t think you need to see any specific statistical improvement or anything like that, but c’mon, man, this is not working. His swinging strike rate is more than double last year, that’s not gonna pay the bills

2:46
Ben Clemens: It hasn’t been long enough for me to say that this is over. Like, I wouldn’t bench him now. But I’m definitely worried. THat’s one of the faster-stabilizing statistics, it’s core to how he wins at the plate, it matters if he’s suddenly much worse at avoiding strikeouts and isn’t getting hit by pitches

2:47
Sirras: Ben, it’s April. It’s too early to panic about [insert player and/or team here]. What can I panic about?

2:47
Ben Clemens: “What can I panic about” hasn’t been a problem for me, in the broad, global sense, for quite a while now. In fact, I’d probably prefer to panic about sports even if they aren’t actually panic-worthy. So you have my permission to panic about any player at any time, as a coping mechanism

2:48
Big Buckston: Durbin was always walking on a knife’s edge last season to me. There just aren’t too many guys who can sustain above-average offense over multiple years with the close to zero power + great plate discipline + good contact ability profile. In recent vintage, it’s basically Arraez (before he started swinging at everything), Hoerner, Kwan that has made this work over multiple years. Xavier Edwards might be able to, we’ll see

2:48
Ben Clemens: Yeah, allow me to say one last thing about Durbin. I feel like I described it, either in my Brewers offseason overview or in a chat, like:

2:49
Ben Clemens: Brewers think Durbin is worth 2 arbitrary units, the Yankees trade him to the Brewers for 1 arbitrary unit.
Durbin plays like he’s worth 4 arbitrary units for a year.
Red Sox offer Brewers 4 arbitrary units for him. Brewers still think he’s worth 2 arbitrary units. Um, great, deal.

2:50
Ben Clemens: now, that’s not quite fair, but I think Durbin has the defense + blah slap hitting kind of game that is often an acceptable regular for a few years

2:50
Ben Clemens: and very rarely a star

2:50
bosoxforlife: Jo Adell’s incredible game speaks for itself, even more so because he has a reputation for being, let me be polite, a less than average defensive outfielder. The first was good, the second was better and the third was off the charts. Great defense is one of the reasons I wish the ball could be put in play more often.

2:50
Ben Clemens: Great defense is the best

2:51
Ben Clemens: I prefer the single spectacular play (gimme Denzel Clarke every day) but I can also appreciate a body-of-work game like Adell’s. and the last catch was spectacular

2:51
Yakety Sox: Patrick Bailey’s wRC+ is 1 right now. That surely will rise some, but how bad could his hitting be and still warrant being a starter given his excellence behind the plate?

2:52
Ben Clemens: I think the level he’s hit at in his career (75 wRC+ or so) is kind of a sneaky floor. Like if he falls to a 60 wRC+, then I think his playing time would plummet too

2:53
Ben Clemens: it’s not that it would make him below average. but it’d evaporate a lot of his advantage over a less-extreme catcher profile, and at that point they should rest him more, platoon him, etc.

2:53
RED ARMY: Graham Ashcraft has been awesome so far. He should be closing, right?

2:54
Ben Clemens: I’d try it if I were them

2:54
The Actor for Al Pacino: Have you caught any of Konnor Griffin live yet? Any immediate thoughts? I’m just how struck at his physicality, he looks like a linebacker.

2:54
Ben Clemens: I watched the whole debut and caught some other segments. He’s big and fast. It’s fun.

2:55
Ben Clemens: I’m excited to see whether he can hit the ground running

2:55
War2D2: Also about defense: one of the things that made my heart sing yesterday at the Giants game was a random force play where Lindor did some acrobatics behind the bag and flipped it to Semian. Just one of 27 outs, but it was great. I’m not saying that alone was worth the price of admission, but I’m not not saying it.

2:55
Ben Clemens: Lindor is so fun to watch. He’s a real acrobat. But he puts a lot of that towards making plays look easier, not harder

2:56
Ben Clemens: I was watching a nature documentary last night of a puma stalking prey and it’s like their bodies have a gyroscope to make everything stay stable. Lindor fields kind of like that.

2:57
Guest: Jordan Walker seems like he’s earned his results so far, better bat path and he’s always had elite bat speed. Small sample etc but could this be the breakout?

2:57
Wethering Holts: Please please please tell me this small sample of early season measures means that Jordan Walker has magically transformed into a batted ball god and will turn his raw bat speed into 460-foot bombs regularly from now until eternity?

2:58
Ben Clemens: I mean, it’s way too soon to say for sure, but this is obviously what you’ve always hoped walker would do. I think it’s all kind of downstream of how good of decisions he’s making? Like, he’s chasing less but swinging at pitches in the zone much more. and that means he’s taking his A swing more, and it also seems like he’s lifting more on his A swing?

2:59
Ben Clemens: anyway the underlying metrics look incredible. But the bigger issue is just that we also have a long sample of him not doing this, and it’s only 34 PA. I’m very excited, though, because I want more good hit/bad field sluggers in baseball

2:59
Ben Clemens: it’s one of my favorite archetypes and Walker and Heliot Ramos are two elite prospects for it

2:59
Ryan: A lot of mention of the Diamondbacks in your article today. Is this indicative of kind of a failed offseason by them? Like sure they could use a league-average first baseman, they should’ve known they could use one all winter and somehow landed on Carlos Santana

3:00
Ben Clemens: yeah…. look, I think that the first baseman part of that is just saying what we all kind of knew

3:00
Ben Clemens: like, Santana signed a one-year, $2 million deal. No one thought he was going to be a good solution

3:01
Ben Clemens: and I don’t kno wif you can blame them for this, but it’s easy enough to look at their rotation and go “eh, yeah, not enough arms”

3:01
Ben Clemens: maybe Soroka will change that

3:01
Ben Clemens: that’d be fun!

3:01
Ben Clemens: but we don’t project it that way right now

3:02
Jim: What would you do with the A’s bullpen?

3:02
Jasper: Were Mark Leiter Jr. and Scott Barlow really the best the A’s FO could get? That bullpen is garbo.

3:02
Ben Clemens: I think I’m with Jasper here. It’s not a great unit

3:03
Ben Clemens: Honestly, I think it’s fine? My thinking is that if the A’s look like they’re in the race in June/July, their bullpen is so bad that they can make a ubnch of cheap upgrades. But their rotation is likely bad enough that it won’t matter. So they’re trying to save some resources on the ‘pen and put them towards other, longer-term things

3:04
NY spiritually and physically: If at the end of April Martian is killing it and Grish is ugh, do the Yankees make a switch?

3:06
Ben Clemens: oof, I don’t think so but it’s not completely out of the question. I think I’d be more likely to do some kind of split plus backup playing time situation, because I think that a good Grisham is a really useful part of a lot of good Yankees playoff teams, but yeah, you can’t just sit on Dominguez forever

3:06
John: Also, I just moved to SF and would love some recommendations for fun and low-cost things to do/ see. I’ve been enjoying the parks and the museums so far.

3:08
Ben Clemens: Everything GGP-related is awesome. I play tennis at the tennis center there and it’s incredible, world class facilities and cheap. I just like walking around. La Taqueria is my favorite burrito place but there’s a nice salvadorian breakfast spot up the street that I might like even more. The Presidio is incredible and there are some cool festival type things at the presidio lawn fairly often, usually incredible deals.

3:08
Ben Clemens: I heard the new tunnel tops are great and getting a food hall, haven’t made it yet

3:08
War2D2: Matt Boyd on the IL with a “biceps strain.” This is looking increasingly like a precarious season for the Cubs. Given Dan’s article about ROS projections it sure seems like the Cubs should be in the business of overpaying for Sandy Alcantara or Joe Ryan right now, right?

3:09
Ben Clemens: I tend to think so. They were in my upgrades article as one of the teams who could use an average starter most. 10.7% increase in playoff odds from adding 3.2-WAR starter, tied for highest in the league

3:10
The Actor for Al Pacino: Taijuan Walker with a couple of very ugly starts to kick off the season. Can Phillies afford to keep trotting him out there until Wheeler is back in a few weeks? If you were them, would you bite the bullet and give a AAA arm a shot? NL East is looking tough with resurgent Atlanta/NYM and feisty Miami

3:10
Ben Clemens: I think I still prefer Taijuan to their existing options. It’s a bind! Like, if Painter is great, paying up for a fifth starter right now is bad

3:10
Ben Clemens: and you should just roll with it, at which point I think Walker is the best choice

3:11
Ben Clemens: but if you’re worried about a)Painter sustainability b)Wheeler health c)depth, then maybe you should just go trade for someone good if possible

3:11
Ben Clemens: because i agree, it’s not great right now, and it’s not clear how quickly that will improve

3:12
George: Cardinals/Nats question: Nats are going with a heavy lefty lineup against Pallante, who has careverse splits (likely because of the arm angle). Would you trust hitter splits or pitcher splits when they differ like that?

3:12
George: sorry typo on the Pallante question. I meant Career splits**

3:12
Ben Clemens: always, always, trust pitcher splits more. The pitcher has a lot more to do with the things that matter for platooning. release points, arm angles, pitch shapes, etc.

3:13
Ben Clemens: so yeah, this is not smart? Pallante has been WAY better against lefties than righties, over 1,000 lefties faced, and like, WAY better, 14% better

3:13
Big Buckston: Mookie injury is really unfortunate obviously, but it is a bit funny to me that the Dodgers, with their wealth of money and players, will be counting on Alex Freeland, Miguel Rojas, Hyeseong Kim, and Santiago Espinal to man the middle infield for the foreseeable future. Do they make a move for a middle infielder, or just roll with these guys and play the hot hand?

3:13
Ben Clemens: If I’m them, I jsut roll with it

3:14
Ben Clemens: like, you’re gonna make the playoffs. you’re gonna win the NL West. At the end of the year, you know that Betts and Edman are likely ticketed for those spots. Why spend resources running up the score on the rest of the division?

3:14
Pokey Reese: Do we just have to accept PCA’s 2025 first half as a mirage and that he will be a lifetime Jackie Bradley Jr?

3:14
Ben Clemens: no, but obviously that’s the risk in his profile

3:15
Ben Clemens: like…. he clearly needs to improve his approach if he’s going to be an elite hitter

3:15
Ben Clemens: he can be an elite player even without being an elite hitter because everything else is so good. But you just can’t swing like he does and be 35%, 40% above average offensively

3:15
Ben Clemens: the math does not work

3:15
Let Lefties Hit: I understand platoon maximization is so hot right now, but why don’t more teams let guys who rake (specifically lefties)  get more PAs against same handed? O’Hearn, Kerry Carpenter, Pavin Smith, etc. If the “normal” wRC+ drop going from platoon advantage to disadvantage is 15 points, these guys should be allowed to develop it seems. They’re all pushing 120 or better wRC+ values in given years.

3:16
Ben Clemens: I tend to agree

3:16
Ben Clemens: I guess one thing is that load management and rest are big these days

3:16
Ben Clemens: and it’s a kind of comparative advantage situation at times. Like, I know that I want 600 PA from Kerry and 150 PA from his righty backup (whoever you designate that as). Might as well give the at-bats against lefties to the righty!

3:17
Jasper: You said Kurtz should be attacking early more. Is hitting him leadoff messing with that attack plan?

3:18
Ben Clemens: interesting. That does sound possible to me. I’d have to do more investigation of that, but it’s a fun line of questioning

3:18
Ben Clemens: like, it shouldn’t. He should just try to be the best hitter possible. But it might be

3:19
Ben Clemens: Alright everyone, this was a really fun chat, and jam-packed with real baseball stuff. I didn’t even get to say what I’m having for lunch (leftovers), or have opinions about board games (we’re into Legos recently, they’re great, does that count?) or video games (StS2, yes please). But there’s some baseball to watch, and some baseball to analyze, and some lunch to eat, so I am going to call it a chat. Have a great week, let’s do it again next Monday.





Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @benclemens.

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Craig BiddleMember since 2025
2 hours ago

Is Marcel Ozuna a victim of SSS or is he really just cooked?

warpath
1 hour ago
Reply to  Craig Biddle

Have heard others mention this, but apparently he’s been pretty diminished since a midseason hip injury last year that has never really been treated.