Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 5/15/23

May 15, 2023

2:01	Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat

2:01	Ben Clemens: I had a great week of baseball watching, my mom went to a Nats game (without me, I’m on the opposite coast) for Mother’s Day, and I’m going to Wrigley next week for the first time

2:01	Ben Clemens: Good time to be me! Let’s start chatting

2:01	Major League Bozo: Matt Mervis will turn it around, right? Right??

2:01	Ben Clemens: From here? Sure

2:02	Ben Clemens: I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he’s projected to be right around an average hitter overall, though, it’s not like he’s Lou Gehrig 2.0

2:02	RA Niekro: Thoughts on Scherzer’s start? He looked much crisper than he did recently.

2:02	Ben Clemens: With the caveat that it was against the Nats, who are bad, I’m willing to believe that pitchers who have shown they’re good in the past are good again very quickly

2:02	Ben Clemens: So yes, I’m buying that he broke out of his funk

2:02	Guest: I know it’s not the most meaningful stat out there but where can I find barisp? I checked a couple of webistes and nothing, thanks Ben

2:03	Ben Clemens: You can do it with our splits leaderboards!

2:03	Ben Clemens: there’s a split called ‘situation’, which handles baserunners

2:03	Ben Clemens: Marcus Semien leads baseball with a .513 BARISP. Jonah Heim is second at .500. Go Rangers!

2:03	Ben Clemens: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=59&spli…

2:03	Joe Randa: Have we reached the point of legitimate concern for the Padres? It does not seem like they are unlucky, both Pythag and BaseRuns have the with similar records.

2:03	Ben Clemens: I mean, they’re 19-22, it’s not like they’re the Cardinals or A’s

2:04	Ben Clemens: but yeah, I think it’s reasonable to be concerned that they’re not the class of the NL West, surprise surprise looks like it’s the Dodgers

2:04	Ben Clemens: Manny Machado hitting this poorly is very concerning

2:05	Ben Clemens: Same is true for Cruz and Carpenter

2:05	Ben Clemens: and a team built around middle infielders continues to have not much depth in non-middle-infield places, whoops

2:05	Ben Clemens: but Tatis being back and Soto being one fo the best hitters in baseball should help

2:05	Ben Clemens: Boy, it’s a good thing they signed Bogaerts!

2:05	JJ: Seems like a lot of Cronenworth’s value is being sapped by playing 1B full-time. Should the Padres explore trading Kim, moving Jake back to 2B, and picking up a RHH 1B/DH at the deadline to complement Carpenter?

2:05	Ben Clemens: I wonder about this sometimes, but I think it kinda makes sense to have all this overlap

2:06	Ben Clemens: It really helps out if anyone gets hurt, which is just an important thing to care about

2:06	Ben Clemens: I understand that it kinda saps his value, but it’s not like they have better 1B options to run out instead

2:06	Ben Clemens: now sure, if they’re capable of making 6 trades to squeeze out every last drop of value, go do it

2:06	Ben Clemens: But given the friction involved ni making trades in general, I kind of think what would happen is that they trade away Kim for prospects, then they have a worse ML team and prospects

2:06	Ben Clemens: And then, huh, we made the Padres worse

2:06	Braydon: Is Nolan Gorman’s early-season breakout sustainable?

2:07	Ben Clemens: Depends a lot on what you mean by sustainable

2:07	Ben Clemens: I don’t think he’s a 150 wRC+ hitter, i do think that he’s a guy who strikes out only slightly too much and hits for a ton of power

2:07	Ben Clemens: So I’m gonna say yes

2:07	Ben Clemens: He’s broken out now, and will be an above average major league hitter going forward

2:07	Ben Clemens: In the equivalent of nearly a full season at this point, he’s hitting .239/.320/.462, which is 20% above average

2:08	Ben Clemens: that’ll play

2:08	Izzy: Riley Greene is finally starting to heat up. His wRC+ vs righties is 114 (104 overall). Is he about to break out?

2:08	Ben Clemens: I hope so, but I want more evidence

2:08	Ben Clemens: Using the same criteria as Gorman, in nearly a full season he’s an exactly league average hitter, and his batting line this year is very close to last year’s

2:09	Ben Clemens: Let’s wait for him to get great

2:09	New UK fan: Why don’t teams just consistently piggyback starters for 3-4IP each? (Yes I know this is an old SBF take) Seems an obvious way to balance having your best pitchers throwing the most innings vs the TTO penalty

2:09	Ben Clemens: I think the real argument against this is that it’s hard to get the personnel

2:09	Ben Clemens: Yes, it would mitigate the times through the order penalty

2:10	Ben Clemens: But if you go down to your 8th starter or whatever, that guy is a lot worse than your first starter

2:10	Ben Clemens: I’d rather have, say, Spencer Strider go as long as he can

2:10	Ben Clemens: than piggyback him with, say, Jared Schuster

2:10	Ben Clemens: Shuster*

2:11	TooDamnTall: When does an (undesirable) fastball with cut become a (desirable) cut fastball?

2:11	Ben Clemens: I’ve thought about this one a lot over the years thanks to Corbin Burnes

2:11	Ben Clemens: What I think you want to avoid is being in between

2:11	Ben Clemens: So if you have a fastball that is purely four-seam, let’s say it has 10″ of ride and moves armside by 3″

2:12	Ben Clemens: now if you cut it a little…. 8″ of ride, 1″ armside

2:12	Ben Clemens: now it’s just straighter

2:12	Ben Clemens: cut it a lot, 6″ ride, 1″ gloveside

2:12	Ben Clemens: now it’s nowhere near where the other one was

2:12	Ben Clemens: basically a little bit of cut often just means a pitch moves less like it should

2:12	Ben Clemens: but a lot of cut means it moves liek a different pitch

2:12	Ben Clemens: I’m not sure where the cutoff is, but that’s how I think about it

2:12	Mike M: Does the Dodgers taking 5 of 6 from San Diego these past two weekends change your views about the NL West?

2:13	Ben Clemens: No, but I had the Dodgers winning the west before the year, so

2:13	Oaktown Blues: Should I be worried about Shea Langeliers’ defense? He’s rated as one of the worst catchers in baseball so far, despite most of the scouting reports describing him as a strong defender. What gives?

2:14	Ben Clemens: I wouldn’t worry about it too much, at least aside from framing. Defense is noisy on a seasonal level, let alone on a one-month level. As to the framing, uh, yeah I don’t know what to say

2:14	Ben Clemens: It seems bad!

2:14	Ben Clemens: I haven’t watched enough to have a stronger take than that

2:15	Ben Clemens: The good thing is, the A’s are going to give him all the time in the world to figure it out

2:15	Chip: I know you’re a Cardinals guy and I find myself watching them quite a bit this year despite (because of?) the ineptitude. Question: Do you dislike Jim Edmonds’ commentary as much as I do? He comes across like a regional Smoltz to me.

2:15	Ben Clemens: I wouldn’t go that far, but I tire of him quickly

2:15	Ben Clemens: I like the text message bit, I guess

2:15	Winker, Taylor, Soler, Spy: Just lost Puk to IL, Chafin has been bad and is maybe losing his edge in the AZ bullpen, and Iglesias has been poor since returning from the IL. How would you rank these guys for the next 1-2 weeks: Chafin, Kimbrel, Castro, Graveman

2:15	Ben Clemens: Okay, I threw this question up here entirely because of the username

2:15	Ben Clemens: Now let’s read it!

2:17	Ben Clemens: Uh, I think I’d go Kimbrel, Castro, Graveman, Chafin? I’m worried about Chafin for sure

2:17	Esteury Ruiz Has Wheels: Is Esteury Ruiz having the breakout we were all hoping for? His plate discipline is terrible, but he’s got enough bat-to-ball skills and is so fast that, does it even matter? Can he steal 100?

2:17	Ben Clemens: Yeah!

2:17	Ben Clemens: This isn’t bad, right?

2:18	Ben Clemens: The absolute lack of power is exaxcxtly as advertised

2:18	Ben Clemens: But I think that this is the path forward for him. Walk into the very occasional home run, use your speed to beat out infield hits and turn singles into doubles, and don’t strike out much

2:18	We Appreciate The Chats: The interaction with you and your colleagues (JJ, DSzym) through chats, quick hits to supplement the deep dives of the articles, is a highlight of this site for some of us. Thank you.

2:18	Ben Clemens: Thanks

2:18	Hunter: I didn’t mean to send something that was more of a comment then a question. Tigers questions! (I know it’s early for this one) Where are best fits for E-Rod the Ace? What would a good return be? Is there a better Mustache in Baseball than Jake Rogers?

2:18	Ben Clemens: Ooh, two good Tigers questions

2:19	Ben Clemens: I’m a pretty big fan of Trent Grisham’s absurd mustache

2:19	Ben Clemens: as for trading E Rod, he’s an awkward trade piece because he’s partially a rental, unless he gets hurt, then he’s on your cap forever

2:19	Ben Clemens: (he has an opt out after this year)

2:20	Ben Clemens: that makes it an especially tough in-season trade; deals where opt outs get voided or pre-exercised or whatnot tend to happen in the offseason when there’s more time for all of that

2:21

Ben Clemens: With that said, I think the best fit is probably the Cardinals, but also the win-now teams with thin rotations, like the Mets and Padres. It’s hard for me to imagine them getting a huge haul for him, but if you’re St. Louis, would you trade Ivan Herrera for him? Probably, and maybe some throw ins too

2:22	Ben Clemens: I’m not really sure what the Padres have left to trade, or I’d come up with an example for them too

2:22	Shaq_drizzle: Hot take: Taylor Walls is the 2nd best SS in baseball behind Wander Franco.

2:22	Ben Clemens: Walls is a pretty amazing story this year

2:22	Ben Clemens: where did all this power come from!!!

2:22	Ben Clemens: now to be fair, he has unbelievably bad raw batted ball data for someone with a .300 ISO

2:23	Ben Clemens: But it’s a great reminder not to overreact to either cold or hot streaks

2:23	Ben Clemens: Walls had a 70 wRC+ through two seasons in the majors and then put up 110 PA of a 167

2:23	Ben Clemens: I think he’s probably a roughly average hitter, probably below because he does not have good sustainable pop, but a plus defender

2:24	Ben Clemens: I guess that puts him solidly in the top 20 shortstops in baseball, sorry to not have a spicier reaction

2:24	Appa Yip Yip: After watching both the Jays and Braves try their damnedest to lose last night, what’s your favourite “neither team deserves to win” game you’ve seen recently?

2:25	Ben Clemens: It’s this game

2:25	Ben Clemens: I am saving one thing from this game for a five things i liked article

2:25	Ben Clemens: but even excluding that, the play where matt olson dropped a pop up, but then threw out bo bichette (who hit the pop up) b/c he lazed out of the box and then inexplicably tried to stretch it to a double

2:25	Ben Clemens: Just, incredible!

2:26	Ben Clemens GPT: Can you think of another recent example of a player like Abreu, with a decade long track record of well above average performance, falling off a cliff without an injury related performance decline? Is there hope for a rebound?

2:26	Ben Clemens: Boy, I was wrong on this one, because I looked into Abreu’s 2022 in the offseason and didn’t see a lot of red flags

2:26	Ben Clemens: i think there’s hope for a rebound because he’s gone through power-light periods before and generally just hits enough line drives to make it work, but I have low confidence. If I’m the Astros, I’m looking at contingency plans

2:26	Guy Who Asks The Multiple Choice Question: On which island did the Cubs have their Spring Training from 1922 – 1951? a) Maui b) Catalina Island c) Oahu d) Bermuda

2:27	Ben Clemens: I’m gonna say Catalina, because they seem like a wine mixer kinda team

2:27	Jimmy: Any thoughts on the Rays looking to move Luis Patiño to the pen? We’ve had so much trouble there this year, as well as getting him to stick as a starter, that it feels like it ought to be an obvious solution right?

2:27	Ben Clemens: I would have moved Patino to the pen a while ago

2:27	Ben Clemens: I understand the upside play in letting him keep trying, but it just doesn’t look like it’s gonna happen

2:27	Izzy: Follow up to Greene… just saw a stat about Yelich and those big Milwaukee years being a product of the happy fun ball with a mix of Miller Park… Is non great Yelich a good comp for Greene?

2:27	Ben Clemens: Yeah, I can buy that

2:28	Ben Clemens: Green has more natural pop, I think, but less plate discipline

2:28	Sharps: Can you recommend more plays that can be used as gifs like the nut shot/tag out?

2:28	Ben Clemens: I’m here to help

2:28	Ben Clemens: If I think of any, I’ll let you know. That one was brutal

2:28	marginal utility player: Chris Stratton has a 2.80 ERA and 2.52 FIP since the Cardinals acquired him, yet the team refuses to use him in high leverage roles. What gives?

2:28	Ben Clemens: I think this comes down to the fact that they have a lot of relievers they like

2:28	Ben Clemens: For all the Cards’ starting rotation woes, they have some good bullpen arms

2:28	Ben Clemens: I agree, though, Stratton seems excellent

2:29

bosoxforlife: Ben, I am confused, please help me. The Mariners recently called up a prospect named Bryce Miller who was getting lit up every time out in the minors, so what does he do, just throws 3 almost unbelievable games in the majors. I have been watching baseball for 75+ years and it always throws me another curve.

2:29	Ben Clemens: Bryce Miller fascinates me

2:29	Ben Clemens: He has one pitch

2:29	Ben Clemens: It’s a fastball

2:29	Ben Clemens: It’s just working!

2:29	Ben Clemens: Truly not sure what to say about it, I keep expecting him to crash back to earth

2:29	Shohei Fan Club: Most entertaining team for Shohei to sign with? I would say Seattle as the combo of him and Julio would be a blast to watch.

2:30	Ben Clemens: For me, it’s the Giants

2:30	Ben Clemens: I live in SF, so

2:30	Ben Clemens: But yeah, Mariners are a good one

2:30	YardGoat: Hello Ben. Are the Pirates good? The dichotomy between the April Pirates and May Pirates has me real confused

2:30	Ben Clemens: No

2:30	Ben Clemens: I mean, I hate to say it, but no

2:30	Ben Clemens: I don’t think they’re terrible or anything

2:30	Ben Clemens: But I don’t think they’re a .500 true talent team

2:31	Walla Walla Ron Washington: Over/ under Paxton starts this season: 5.5?

2:31	Ben Clemens: oof

2:31	Ben Clemens: boy that’s low

2:31	Ben Clemens: I’m gonna go over!

2:31	Appa Yip Yip: Did you know that Wilson Contreras is fixed? Had a great week doing indistinct mumbling and has the full confidence of the front office and coaching staff you love to see it.

2:32	Ben Clemens: Wait, did you see the Derrick Gould article about it??!?!

2:32	Ben Clemens: Goold, excuse me

2:32	Ben Clemens: Here is Contreras’s quote from that: “It’s all the same. I don’t think I had to change anything.”

2:33	Ben Clemens: Truly a gross moment in Cardinals franchise history, I hope their spineless move to throw a player under the bus is remembered and held against this team

2:33	Ben Clemens: I like the Cardinals a lot, obviously

2:33	Ben Clemens: THis whole situation was just gross

2:33	D: Has your opinion of the Mookie trade changed at all since it happened?

2:33	Ben Clemens: Hm, not really

2:34	Ben Clemens: I mean, I thought the Red Sox were being dumb by trading away a franchise pillar and would struggle to replace his huge contributions

2:34	Ben Clemens: and what do you know, that was all true

2:34	Mugghead: Alvarado get the bulk of saves when he returns?

2:34	Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think so

2:34	Meandthecaptain: Hey Ben, thanks for all these glorious chats. Do you have a game rec for 2 ppl who want some strategy plus 2 ppl that say they don’t care but are actually intensely competitive?

2:34	Meandthecaptain: need a little replayability since we’ll be in the outer banks for a week. Thanks!

2:34	Ben Clemens: Ooh, good question

2:34	Ben Clemens: So two different recs, but I’ll try to link the two together

2:35	Ben Clemens: My wife and I have really enjoyed Taverns of Tiefenthal as a two-player game, it does not feel competitive but we both really like winning

2:35	Ben Clemens: and you just build your own tavern and bring in guests to give beer and brandy, kinda satisfying engine

2:35	Ben Clemens: aside from that, I think my favorite replayable two player game is Tranquility

2:36	Ben Clemens: It’s cooperative, so maybe that’s not what you’re looking for, but intensely satisfying to get right

2:36	Ben Clemens: basically you have to place some numbers in a grid according to a set of rules, but you don’t get to talk to each other and both have to help fill out the grid

2:36	Ben Clemens: and if hyou do it wrong you’ll lose, which I like

2:36	Sammy So-so: So will you give us a Wrigley vs. Fenway report on which ancient stadium you prefer? I mean, they’re both great, but Fenway does it more for me.

2:36	Ben Clemens: I haven’t been to Fenway for 20 years, so that report will have to wait until I go back to Fenway

2:37	Tshabalala: Do you think we see Jordan Walker again this season?

2:37	Ben Clemens: I do

2:37	Ben Clemens: I wouldn’t hate a little more time in Triple-A to let him get back to elevating the ball but that’s not weird! He’s 21

2:37	Ben Clemens: He’s quite strong, etc.

2:37	Appa Yip Yip: Why doesn’t Jordan Romano get more love? Is this classic anti Canadian bias? Are we actually aggrieved here instead of just pretending we’re aggrieved?

2:38	Ben Clemens: I think it’s because he doesn’t strike a lot of guys out

2:38	Ben Clemens: But in general yeah I’d say he’s overlooked

2:39	Ben Clemens: 6th-lowest ERA in baseball among relievers starting in 2021

2:39	Ben Clemens: to be fair, David Bednar, Erik Swanson, Garrett Whitlock, MIchael King, and Matt Moore are the names around him on that list

2:39	Ben Clemens: so it’s not like the Jays have a monopoly on feeling aggrieved

2:39

John Olerud’s Helmet: Hello Mr Ben!! Praise thee!! I know this is partly my blind love of Mark Buehrle, but in this new pitch clock era how much better do you think he would be? He always pitched quick and now hed have the advantage of the batter not being able to step out on him constantly. Im not saying hed be a HOFer but surely he would have a slightly higher WAR right??

2:39	Ben Clemens: Hmmmmmm

2:39	Ben Clemens: I guess I could see it

2:40	Ben Clemens: I tend to think that the pitch clock doesn’t matter TOO much

2:40	Ben Clemens: but it definitely wouldn’t hurt him

2:40	Shaq_drizzle: How much of a leash are the Rays going to give Brandon Lowe before they replace his lefty bat with Manzardo’s? Move Yandy to 3rd and Walls/Paredes plays 2nd.

2:40	Ben Clemens: Probably a lot, particularly since despite his struggles this year he’s still hitting for power

2:41	Ben Clemens: and their lineup feels more starved for lefty bats than righty ones

2:42	Ben Clemens: Like reverse the situation, and there are a lot of mouths to feed who hit righty. But it’s just Lowe, Lowe, and Raley hitting lefty

2:42	Ben Clemens: Raley is the bigger question to me. Is he good enough that he just has to be played?

2:43	Kendall Roy: What are your thoughts on Brett Baty. Dude was crushing AAA, but has struggled somewhat out of the gate. Chance they send him back down?

2:43	Ben Clemens: Eh, it’s not like Escobar needs a spot right now

2:44	Ben Clemens: I think if Baty truly struggles, that’s still an option, but the team sets up kinda nicely with Escobar as a utility infielder

2:44	bosoxforlife: The pitch clock mattered in Boston on Saturday night! Jansen was lost. Quick pitching and rushing his pitches because he takes soooo long to get it up there. He looked like is heading for more trouble, a lot more trouble..

2:44	Ben Clemens: That was so strange

2:44	Ben Clemens: He just got bamboozled by Contreras

2:44	Ben Clemens: His explanation was also baffling!

2:45	Ben Clemens: He said he only looked at Contreras’s face but should have looked at his legs as well

2:45	Ben Clemens: What the heck

2:45	Ben Clemens: I will say that Kenley (and Chris Bassitt) was right at the top of my list of pitchers who would be most affected

2:45	Ben Clemens: Like if it affects anyone, he’ll be one of the first

2:45	Ben Clemens: but I still don’t quite believe it?

2:45	Guest: I haven’t watched the apple tv games yet this year, are the prediction graphics still terrible? (I would read an update to your original piece if you’re inclined to write one!)

2:46	Ben Clemens: I’ve been thinking about it

2:46	Ben Clemens: It’s a lot of data collection, but I probably will soon

2:46	Ben Clemens: Because after that it’ll be MORE data collection

2:46	Hunter: Do you think the new stealing environment might put dreams of Rickey Henderson’s record into a young player’s head, or is it too unattainable?

2:46	Ben Clemens: Too unattainable imo

2:46	Ben Clemens: Like, big round number steals seem attainable

2:46	Ben Clemens: tons of people are gonna steal 50, that’s neat

2:46	Ben Clemens: but Rickey’s records are like DiMaggio’s streak

2:47	Chewing over Wrigleyville: Should I hold on to Taillon and pray or time to let go?

2:47	Ben Clemens: I think you should hold on unless you have great alternatives

2:47	Ben Clemens: The volume of bad starts is not enough to make me tune out just yet

2:47	SH, Jr.: you are Josh Bell’s advisor. Is there an achievable batting line starting from May 2023 at which you tell him to forgo $16m in 2024 and hit the market?

2:48	Ben Clemens: yeah, for sure

2:48	Ben Clemens: I mean, he’s not there yet, and I do not think he’ll get there

2:48	Ben Clemens: He is the free agent I was most down on relative to consensus this offseason

2:48	Ben Clemens: In retrospect, maybe Jose Abreu would have been a better 1b to shove way down the list, but I had Bell SUPER low and the things I was worried about have basically come true

2:48	Ben Clemens: He just doesn’t hit for power consistently enough

2:49	Ben Clemens: That said, if he replicates his Washington form the rest of the year (143 wRC+, .301/.384/.493), he’d get more than 1/16

2:50	Ben Clemens: Like, he got 2/33 last year after playing EVEN WORSE down the stretch in San Diego

2:50	Ben Clemens: than he’s played this year

2:50	wrigley tip: Make sure you load up your hot dog with plenty of ketchup, just like all us real chicagoans do! We can’t get enough of the stuff, so make sure you get plenty of napkins and make a big show of how much you’re enjoying that sweet sweet tomato sauce!

2:50	Ben Clemens: I’ll also make sure to wear a bunch of Cardinals gear to the non-Cards game Im going to and keep mentioning that the lake isn’t all THAT impressive

2:50	wrigley tip: another thing us chicagoans love is accurately judging flyballs, so if a hit looks like its going for a homer and the crowd screams, go ahead and mark it in your scorebook as a dinger! no way we’d get it wrong.

2:51	Ben Clemens: see, all these great tips!

2:51	the guy who asks the lunch question: what’s for lunch?

2:51	Ben Clemens: Ooh, we’ve got a good one today

2:52	Ben Clemens: Leftover dips from middle eastern delivery last night, plus a salad made of peperoncini, roasted red peppers, olives, and arugula, plus ground and roasted chickpeas

2:52	Ben Clemens: It’s gonna be incredible, I can’t wait

2:52	trade advice: What’s a good trade offer for my al pastor burrito: dos birria tacos and a quesadilla suiza w/ carne asada?

2:52	Ben Clemens: honestly I’d just stick to the birria tacos and ask for more

2:52	to the guy who asks the lunch question: I made PB&J today, thanks for asking

2:52	Ben Clemens: also a solid option. what kind of jelly?

2:53	Cold in Seattle: What’s wrong with julio rodriguez?

2:53	Ben Clemens: Lookout Landing wrote about this, as Meg pointed out to me last week

2:53	Ben Clemens: let me pull that link up really quickly

2:53	Ben Clemens: https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2023/5/9/23716730/about-last-night-juli…

2:53

Forrest Whitley: Is there good reason to just, like, promote a prospect like Whitley at this point to see what he can do? Or is there real value in letting a former top prospect like him figure it out at AAA? I’m sure this is just me being in denial that Whitley is likely not going to be an impactful major league arm.

2:53	Ben Clemens: I think it makes sense if you have a free rotation spot

2:54	Ben Clemens: So okay, yeah, looking at the Astros rotation, why not give it a shot?

2:55	Ben Clemens: i mean, he’s been horrendous at Triple-A!

2:55	Ben Clemens: that’s why not

2:55	Ben Clemens: but I’d still give it a try

2:55	the guy who asks the lunch question: Where are you sitting at Wrigley?

2:55	Ben Clemens: I actually haven’t bought tickets yet

2:55	Ben Clemens: suggestions?

2:55	not good bob: Any reason to believe in the Giants back-end starters? Stripling and Manaea have been just… not great

2:55	Ben Clemens: Manaea looks awful

2:55	Ben Clemens: He’s pitched in three games I’ve been to this year and I just do NOT see it

2:56	Hugh Duffy: Which of these mid teams is the most fraudulent right now: Marlins, Cubs, Padres, Blue Jays, Tigers, or Angels?

2:56	Ben Clemens: Hmmm… I’d say the Marlins

2:56	Ben Clemens: I’m not against any of these teams really

2:56	Ben Clemens: but the marlins are inept on offense with Luis Arraez playing at his absolute peak

2:56	Ben Clemens: he’s not gonna get BETTER from here, you know?

2:57	A Boy Named Yu: What’s wrong with Seiya? Had high hopes for him this year. Lingering effects from injury? Lack of proper spring training?

2:57	Ben Clemens: I wish I knew. I am perpetually in on Seiya and he’s been perpetually meh

2:57	Jake: Similar to Jrod, what’s happening with Jose Ramirez? Took him #1 over Judge, concerns?

2:57	Ben Clemens: Nah, not worried

2:57	Ben Clemens: I think he’s been a little unlucky with his contac quality but as far as I can tell the skill is still there

2:58	Ben Clemens: I dunno if he’s ever gonna match his 2020 stat line but I feel like he’ll be 30% above average as a hitter at least

2:58	Ben Clemens: with his typical very good defense

2:58	Ben Clemens: nice player

2:58	the guy who asks the lunch question: What’s wrong with Seiya’s 110 wrc+?

2:58	Ben Clemens: we just want more!

2:58

CAL: Ben – I am planning multiple bachelor parties this summer (short road trips to smaller outdoorsy towns with breweries and such). Both grooms are noted non-planners and non-committal (save for the commitment of a marriage), but this can cause issues with planning a weekend with 5-10 people that involves doing things. Any advice?

2:58	Ben Clemens: Oh boy, this sounds hard

2:59	Ben Clemens: It sure does create issues, and I think I might fall into the same camp, I hate committing to things in my personal life because it just adds to responsibilities that I already hvae

2:59	Ben Clemens: I would say that my biggest advice is to bear the pain and counter their lack of commitment by over-planning

2:59	Ben Clemens: so research more activities than you think you’ll need, find 3 restaurants instead of 2, that kind of thing

3:00	Love Is A Battenfield: In a 12T H2H 5×5, who is the more valuable fantasy asset ROS, Mateo or Matt McLain?

3:00	Ben Clemens: Another great name!

3:00	Ben Clemens: Hmmm…. I think I’d take Mateo just b/c I feel better about him getting full-time PT

3:00	Ben Clemens: playing time is just really important

3:00	jm: Is 3-2 considered a hitter’s count simply because of the walk rate? From what I understand, hitters treat it like any other 2-strike counts, i.e., the swings are quite defensive.

3:00	Ben Clemens: basically because of the walk rate, yeah

3:01	Ben Clemens: so if you look at hitter production by oucnt

3:01	Ben Clemens: count*

3:01	Ben Clemens: Which you can do with our splits tool, go fangraphs

3:02	Ben Clemens: wOBA after a 3-2 count is .371, which is much higher than overall league wOBA

3:02	Ben Clemens: YOu are right, ISO is down, reflective of defensive swings

3:02	Ben Clemens: but walks are just up 20 percentage points, that makes up for a lot of problems

3:03	A Boy Named Yu: To the guy planning the bachelor parties, just start setting plans for the majority, and if others can make it, great. If not, oh well. With that many people, the chances of pleasing everyone or making the schedules work are limited.

3:03	Ben Clemens: Good point

3:03	Guest: if you do an update to the apple tv stats article PLEASE ask Meg and Ben to get that company’s CEO back on the podcast again. I appreciate her willingness to be open and state her case, but that was a hilarious episode of EW

3:03	Ben Clemens: I think that they would liek that too, but I think that she’s probably not coming back

3:03	Ben Clemens: that was really a surreal interview

3:03	Ben Clemens: one of the strangest I’ve ever heard

3:03	Matt: Do you expect STL to call up Liberatore anytime soon?

3:03	Ben Clemens: I don’t get it!

3:03	Ben Clemens: They really should, right?

3:03	Ben Clemens: But I’m gonna go with the path of least resistance and say they won’t

3:03	Ben Clemens: I truly do not understand it

3:04	Guest: Going on a big family-reunion type vacation soon. What’s a good non-taco recipe for a crowd (think 20+)?

3:04	Ben Clemens: Sadly I don’t have one fo ryou

3:04	Ben Clemens: I haven’t done a lot of cooking for groups that big, or really any

3:04	Ben Clemens: I think that generally, stuff you can grill works well for that

3:04	Ben Clemens: Slow-cooked meat isn’t bad, either, presuming you have a big enough slow cooker and or two

3:04	Ben Clemens: because there’s less cooking to order for that, you can do the heavy lifting at 11 am and eat at 7pm

3:04	Mugghead: Re: Abreu falling off a cliff Closest thing I can think of is Roberto Alomar becoming absolutely awful at baseball once he joined the Mets.

3:05	Ben Clemens: This is a callback to a while ago but yeah, not a bad comp

3:05	Guest: What is your projected order of finish for the NL Central?

3:05	Ben Clemens: I’m gonna go Brewers Cubs Cardinals Pirates Reds

3:05	Guest: Out of the MN starters, how would you rank them in terms of confidence that they keep up this crazy start?

3:06	Ben Clemens: Okay, so likeliness to continue their performance. I’ll go Lopez, Gray, Ober, Ryan

3:06	Ben Clemens: Ryan just can’t keep up a 2.16 ERA, you know?

3:06	Ben Clemens: I’d actually have him second (behind Lope) in who I’d want for the rest of the year

3:06	Ben Clemens: I’m very bought in on Lopez, in case that wasn’t clear

3:06

Guest: Cards said they were moving Contreras to DH to take pressure off him as well as to work on gameplanning. They’re 6-2 since. Maybe they were right and a bunch of folks are overreacting to a poorly messaged 10 day situation. How do you think he and Flaherty will do tonight? (the 10 day situation is over, btw)

3:07	Ben Clemens: I mean… their messaging made no sense, and it’s nice that Andrew Knizner had an above average batting line last week, but the pitching remained awful

3:07	Ben Clemens: 28th in baseball in starter WAR in the past week

3:08	Ben Clemens: the starting pitching is quite bad, regardless of who is behind the plate

3:08	Ben Clemens: He specifically said he did no work to change, and there was no evidence that he needed to work on game planning

3:09	Ben Clemens: It’s pretty rough that he made Jack Flaherty lose 5 mph of velo, while not even cadtching him, etc.

3:09	Ben Clemens: How do I think Flaherty will do tonight? Poorly!

3:09	Ben Clemens: And I bet he’ll make a snide comment about how it’s not actually his fault, because he has after the past two starts

3:09	Ben Clemens: But I hope he does well

3:09	Farhandrew Zaidman: What’s more likely to happen first, Diamondbacks make a deep run, Pirates win their division, or Reds end over .500?

3:09	Ben Clemens: DBacks

3:10	Ben Clemens: I really believe in the youth movement there, and they’ve shown more willingness to mix it up with the big boys spending wise

3:10	Ben Clemens: The Reds and Pirates just have such dire ownership situations that I can’t make longterm bets on them, and I think that as a bonus the most likely thing to happen this year is the DBacks making the playoffs

3:10

Captain Mex: An aging borderline HOF 1B in his mid 30’s who had begun to decline but you would probably expect solid production with a change of scenery….how about Keith Hernandez going to Cleveland in 1990 then quickly calling it a career? Not the same with Abreu’s contract/commitment but kinda similar.

3:10	Ben Clemens: I did not even know this happened

3:10	Ben Clemens: So yeah, probably a great example

3:10	Just Fowl: How many more starts do Kluber and Pivetta get before the RS send them to the bullpen, or DFA if they refuse? They might be better off giving street FAs tryouts to find starters who can deliver an ERA under 6.

3:11	Ben Clemens: Yeah, Kluber has looked ROUGH

3:11	Ben Clemens: I think he might just be cooked, sadly

3:11	Ben Clemens: I think Pivetta will get more rope

3:12	Ben Clemens: Just b/c he’s younger and the stuff doesn’t look like it is declining in the same way

3:12	Matt: How long will Kershaw continue to Kershaw?

3:12	Ben Clemens: until morale improves

3:12	Ben Clemens: He’s a marvel

3:14	Ben Clemens: the guys who have better ERA’s than him are players from the era where baseball wwas barely real

3:14	Ben Clemens: I think he will continue to miss intermittent time with injury, and continue to be one of the best to ever do it when he pitches

3:14	Farhandrew Zaidman: Follow up to the DBacks question….Gallen has got to be on the short list for an extension, right?

3:14	Ben Clemens: If he’d take one

3:15	Ben Clemens: He’s going to be a DBack until 2025, so I assume he’d take a reasonable extension

3:15	Ben Clemens: but yeah, is he the best pitcher in baseball right now? he might be

3:15

Twins Wins: Is there any sort of stat/study on team scoring standard deviation or variance? The Twins offense looks ok from a runs/game stat but often they score 0,1, or 5+ but not enough games with 3 or 4 runs. Consistency has to be better than all or nothing, otherwise wasting too many pitching gems

3:15	Ben Clemens: No but you’ve piqued my interest, and now I’m curious about how to research it

3:16	SH, Jr.: “Guardians should consolidate,” says everyone — but besides the SP they’d clearly never move, does any combination of that C+/B- SS/2B prospect depth actually net a move-the-needle big leaguer?

3:16	Ben Clemens: No

3:16	Ben Clemens: definitely not

3:16	Ben Clemens: they keep doing the opposite, you know?

3:16	Ben Clemens: and that’s because teams don’t want to trade a dime for two nickels

3:16	Ben Clemens: unless you’re the Guardians

3:16	Ben Clemens: so they don’t have any willing trade partners, they need another Guardians

3:17	Guest: middle eastern takeout from where?

3:17	Ben Clemens: a place here called Beit Rima, I suggest them

3:17	Guest: What do you expect from Sale the rest of the year? His starts so far seem very good or very poor–no middle ground.

3:17	Ben Clemens: I said recently in a chat that I thought he was just bad now, and I stand corrected

3:17	Ben Clemens: I think that you’re right that his starts are going to continue to be hot and cold, but the highs are going to be very high

3:18	Ben Clemens: He seems to have his fastball back, which is realllllly impotant

3:18	bosoxforlife: Every pitcher should take a reasonable extension but not team should ever offer one over 4/80

3:18	Ben Clemens: I don’t completely agree with this but I agree with the sentiment

3:18	Jason N: I read the Padres have the highest rate in MLB of watching strikes. They’ve become passive while trying to be patient. Is this easily correctable in-season?

3:18	Ben Clemens: No, I think that’s a pretty hard in-season fix to be honest

3:18	Ben Clemens: I think they can preach aggression in general but some of it is just the way the team is built

3:18	Ben Clemens: Like, Soto is a great hitter who watches a lot of strikes

3:18	Ben Clemens: I don’t think you’re gonna get his down

3:19	Ben Clemens: Trent Grisham…. okay maybe he should swing more

3:19	Farhandrew Zaidman: Do you play OOTP? Any hot takes for orgs that you think would produce fun long term saves?

3:19	Ben Clemens: DBacks

3:19	Ben Clemens: and I do, but I”m in an online league and then I play a lot of PT

3:19	Twins Wins: If I can pique your interest I’ll take that as a win! I’ll share the credit when a new metric is created lol

3:19	trinket: why is lamonte wade juan soto now

3:20	Ben Clemens: I dunno but it’s awesome

3:21	Ben Clemens: Although here’s a great example of how we struggle to contextualize player performance: everyone is hyped about Wade being Soto now, and with good reason, he’s walking at twice his previous rate (probably not sustainable at that clip)

3:21	Ben Clemens: meanwhile, we’re talking about why Soto is broken and lots of people say he’s bad now and was maybe never good (!!!!)

3:21	Ben Clemens: they have basically the same batting line

3:21	JJ: Trent Grisham is swinging more! His Swing% is up about 6-7% and his Called Strike % is down about 5%. He’s also chasing more and hitting a ton of barrels when he does make contact. Definitely more aggressive to me.

3:21	Ben Clemens: He started the season off extremely aggressively

3:22	Ben Clemens: and has toned it down

3:22	Ben Clemens: but yeah, fair enough

3:22	Padres: What is wrong with Padres? This was supposedly best lineup and hitting below Mendoza line for RISP?

3:22	Ben Clemens: Eh, addressed this above a bit but basically I think their depth is weird and doesn’t cover the outfield, catcher, or DH very well

3:23	Ben Clemens: so they end up with a lot of bad bats in the lineup despite being star-studded

3:23	Neil Cruise: Flaherty’s control problems seem fixable? Or you think Marmol and Moze are right that it’s the catcher’s fault?

3:23	Ben Clemens: I mean…. his problem is that he’s terrified of throwing the ball in the strike zone b/c he’s sitting 87 with no movement

3:24	Ben Clemens: I think you fix that by throwing harder

3:24	Ben Clemens: and having a better fastball

3:24	Ben Clemens: I truly don’t think it’s just command

3:24	Ben Clemens: He just can’t attack hitters without getting roasted with his stuff righ tnow

3:24	A Boy Named Yu: What is a good middle eastern dish to try if you’ve never really eaten it before?

3:24	Ben Clemens: labneh and hummus

3:24	Ben Clemens: I just like dip

3:24	Guest: If fully healthy, which rotation is the best in baseball? Rangers (with a healthy deGrom)? Rays (with a healthy Rasmussen, Springs, etc.)? Mets (with a healthy Verlander, Scherzer, etc.)? Braves (with a healthy Fried, Wright, etc.)?

3:25	Ben Clemens: I’d go Rangers, but i think the Rays have a very strong argument as well

3:25	SH, Jr.: Most-fun not-great team in baseball presently?

3:25	Ben Clemens: hmmmmmm

3:25	Ben Clemens: DBacks, I think

3:25	Ben Clemens: they are a lot of fun

3:25	Ben Clemens: and they’re definitely not great

3:25	Soros: Julio Rodriguez posted a 5.4 fWAR last season – what are the odds thats his career high?

3:25	Ben Clemens: I’d call it 1 in 3

3:25	Ben Clemens: just b/c he’s so young

3:25	Ben Clemens: if it was, say, 6.5 fWAR

3:25	Ben Clemens: I’d be above 50%, that’s a big number

3:26	Catcher: Are the Padres going to wait for Campusno to come back or going to trade for a catcher? Who do you think they can get with their limited farm?

3:26	Ben Clemens: I dunno, but if I were them I’d do a little soul searching and think hey, maybe we are bad at trading for catchers

3:26	Ben Clemens: the Nola trade has really killed them over the past few years

3:26	Ben Clemens: just like, all kinds of places where they could have used the depth

3:27	Ben Clemens: and he hasn’t even been good for them

3:27	Ben Clemens: 1.1 WAR over nearly 3 seasons (half of ’20, ’21, ’22, ’23 so far)

3:28	Ben Clemens: for Ty France, Luis Torrens, TayTram, Andres Munoz (the Padres also got Austin Adams)

3:28	Appa Yip Yip: Tabouleh is the one of the best bang for your buck dishes out there. Parsley doesn’t get enough respect as an ingredient instead of a garnish.

3:28	Ben Clemens: great call here

3:28	Guest: thoughts on parity in the league this year? Seems like there are fewer super teams and fewer despairingly bad teams this year (with two exceptions)

3:28	Ben Clemens: I have no clue if this is sustainable but I’ve been REALLY enjoying this year’s competitive landscape

3:29	Ben Clemens: just enough new teams

3:29	Daniel: What’s wrong with Gunnar Henderson? Is he just not as good as everyone thought?

3:29	Ben Clemens: I think we’re a ways off from that being the most likely answer

3:29	Ben Clemens: He has a league average offensive line with a .238 BABIP, let’s pump the breaks a little

3:29	Ben Clemens: brakes* oooof that one was bad

3:29	Rays IR Parade: Is it just me, or do the Rays break their pitchers more than the average team. It seems that pitchers for the Rays, or guys who recently were with the Rays, seem to experience a ton of wear and tear.

3:30	Ben Clemens: eh, I think they also sign a lot of pitchers with injury histories

3:30	Ben Clemens: so it’s a real chicken and egg thing

3:30	Farhandrew Zaidman: Was at the Dodger-Padre game with my fiancée the other day, she noted that players were stealing with much more frequency than years past, and dropped this gem. “Wait, I thought Moneyball said stealing bases is bad??” I love this woman, that is all.

3:30	Ben Clemens: That’s spectacular

3:30	Ben Clemens: Okay, just a few questions before I call it a day

3:30	Cube Jockey: Went down memory lane and watched some clips of the Grady Little game and game 6 of the 2011 WS. A lot of the emotion and suspense would have been killed by a pitch clock. Any chance the pitch clock is adjusted for the post season?

3:30	Ben Clemens: No, but I really don’t care to be honest

3:31	Ben Clemens: I think Eno (but m aybe Grant Brisbee? I mix up my bay area writers) looked back at some classic at-bats, like the Eckersley classic in the WS and found they were throwing in under 15/20 seconds anyway

3:31	Ben Clemens: like, baseball has always been able to build tension

3:31	Ben Clemens: I think it’ll still work

3:31

johndarc: So do the Cardinals just not have media training? I know that it sucks to play poorly and lose, esp if you’re not accustomed to struggling, but I mean….I’ve seen better teams play worse, and they rarely point fingers like this. Just a lot of platitudes about “grinding” and whatnot. Baseball cliches would be welcome at this point.

3:31	Ben Clemens: feels that way!

3:31	Ben Clemens: I mean, they’ve never really been bad before

3:31	Ben Clemens: any of them

3:31	Ben Clemens: front office, coaches, players

3:31	Ben Clemens: that must be hard to figure out

3:32	Revenue sharing: If you were a betting man (not sure if you are), will A’s have a binding agreement for a new stadium by Jan 15, 2024 or they lose out on revenue sharing.

3:32	Ben Clemens: I think they will lose out on revenue sharing

3:32	Ben Clemens: the vegas stuff is falling through so quickly

3:32	Ben Clementine: Favorite fruit?

3:32	Ben Clemens: actually, clementines are up there, but blackberries

3:32	Guest: So the Pirates might extend Mitch Keller. Do you think he can be a 4-win pitcher for multiple years?

3:32	Ben Clemens: no, but I dont’ think that about almost any pitchers

3:32	Balanced Schedule: Does the effect of the balance schedule mean that teams like the Cards (and to some extent, Padres) will have a harder time making up ground in the division? Or it isn’t much of a big deal since everyone is playing everyone now?

3:33	Ben Clemens: not that big of a deal, might matter more on a micro scale in september when we get down to brass tacks

3:33	A Boy Named Yu: How do you balance your fandom from growing up with trying to be mostly unbiased in your career?

3:33	Ben Clemens: it’s not as hard as I expected. Trying to pay attention to all of baseball naturally dulls the ‘my team must win or i will be sad’ feeling

3:33	Ben Clemens: because I’m just looking at every game as ‘ooh what will interest me’

3:33	Matt: Who wins the NBA finals this year?

3:33	Ben Clemens: sadly not the Kings

3:34	Ben Clemens: my favorite nba story of the year

3:34	Ben Clemens: uh…. lakers

3:34	Ben Clemens: AD looks unstoppable

3:34	Armadillofury: Is Miguel Vargas good or meh?

3:34	Ben Clemens: good, maybe still hurt

3:34	Ben Clemens: He and Outman are both gonna be dudes, I don’t have a good quantitative way to prove that but I feel it in my bones

3:34	bighen: I love Mets announcers but Gary keeps talking about Lindor having 31 RBI and what a pace he’s on. He’s hitting .223 (i know no one care about batting average), so how about his .309 OBP and .729 OPS. He’s been mostly terrible this season and feel like he gets off a little easy

3:35	Ben Clemens: yeah…. I mean, i don’t quite agress that he’s been terrible, but he has been worse than last year by a fair margin

3:35	Ben Clemens: and I agree, I’m surprised that the decline in his OBP and increase in K% isn’t mentiond more

3:35	Ben Clemens: heck, decline in slug too

3:35	The Lord’s Stanley Cup: Who do you have winning the best trophy is all of sports?

3:36	Ben Clemens: Carlos Alcaraz

3:36	Ben Clemens: we’re talking Wimbledon, right?

3:36	Ben Clemens: but no, I don’t have a strong take on hockey but I hope it’s the Kraken b/c that’d be cool

3:36	Ben Clemens: okay, last question of the day is gonna be pure nonsense, but first let’s have a good penultimate question

3:36	Clase Cutter: Is there a favorite pitch you enjoy watching most?

3:37	Ben Clemens: Yeah, for me it’s a 12-6 curveball

3:37	Ben Clemens: just a big hammer

3:37	Guest: Off The Wall Question: Which “class” of Big 4 team names is historically best? You’ve got “Ursine” (Bears, Cubs, Grizzlies), “Patriotic” (Yankees, Patriots, etc.), “Colorful” (Red Sox, Reds, Browns, etc.), “Feline” (Panthers, Jaguars, Tigers, Lions, etc.) . . . others?

3:37	Ben Clemens: okay!

3:37	Ben Clemens: So historically, patriotic is hard to beat, just b/c you get the best baseball team and a football dynasty

3:38	Ben Clemens: the worst is almost certainly ‘does not end in s’

3:38	Ben Clemens: you get two sox teams who have historically bad records (with intermittent good seasons obv)

3:38	Ben Clemens: some newer franchises, who always tend to be worse b/c they have less time to be great

3:38	Ben Clemens: and i guess your best team is probably the Miami Heat or the Red Sox?

3:39	Ben Clemens: underrated option: jobs

3:39	Ben Clemens: Packers off the top of my head

3:39	Ben Clemens: Pirates

3:39	Ben Clemens: do the Astros count as Astronauts?

3:39	Ben Clemens: Mariners

3:40	Ben Clemens: Warriors?

3:40	Ben Clemens: Okay maybe jobs is not as good as I thought

3:40	Ben Clemens: oof, you’d probably have to take the Kings

3:41	Ben Clemens: ugh, and the commanders

3:41	Ben Clemens: off of jobs as a good choice

3:41	Ben Clemens: Yeah, patriotism and ursine for me

3:41	Ben Clemens: on that note, thanks everyone for chatting today, and let’s do it again next week

3:41	Ben Clemens: have a great day

3:41	Ben Clemens: and of course

3:41	Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS*	CLE	OAK*
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN*	HOU