Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 6/3/22
12:30 |
: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat
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12:31 |
: Today’s gonna be a lightning round in general; fewer deep dives, more takes and letting you readers be funny and insightful on your own
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12:31 |
: Let’s get started right away, it’s a fun day for baseball
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12:31 |
: Points league, needing to switch things up with numerous injuries to my team. Should I trade India for Rasmussen?
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12:31 |
: I would not, but I’m kinda low on Rasmussen
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12:31 |
: Well my day just got even better! Girardi fired and a Ben chat!! If you were given the interim manager job for the Phightin’s, what would your priorities be?
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12:32 |
: Oh man, it’s gonna be a tough job b/c of the fans, but I think a rewarding job b/c the Phillies aren’t THIS bad
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12:32 |
: My priorities would be 1)figure out a bullpen hierarchy
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12:32 |
: 2)figure out a bullpen hierarchy
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12:33 |
: The defense is a tough fix for a manager, that’s kinda on Dombrowski, but managing the bullpen is something that I think a amanger can really impact
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12:33 |
: Think this is the end for Greinke? Got hit a lot harder in May, still not a ton of swing and miss, velo as low as ever, and flexor problems are about the last thing you want to see on a 38 year old pitcher.
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12:33 |
: Yeah… I think it might be, sadly
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12:33 |
: Hey Ben, hope all is well! Was curious if you could give some thoughts on what type of impact you think Shane Baz could give the Rays moving forward in the season with him coming off the IL soon?
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12:34 |
: He could be great! I don’t know how well he’s holding his velocity gains from last year (he’s generally either had pure stuff or pitchability but not both at the same time) so I think there’s some wait and see mode here until he’s thrown a few games, but he’s an impact arm for sure
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12:34 |
: I’m very curious to see how they go about building him up
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12:34 |
: Any chance we have the idea of lineup protection all wrong, and that batting *behind* another good hitter helps make sure you get to see pitches to hit?
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12:34 |
: Definitely a chance of this
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12:34 |
: It’s not even a particularly crazy claim. Everyone knows that you see more pitches to hit when there’s someone on base
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12:34 |
: It’s just strange to hear it said that way
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12:34 |
: Have you ever played 6 Nimmt? By far my favorite casual game to play with a handful of friends. Fun combination of game theory and laughing at friends’ misfortunes.
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12:35 |
: Underrated gem of a game
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12:35 |
: I’ve played a ton in my life, and it’s always fun
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12:35 |
: Willson Contreras probably on the move this summer….where do you see a fit? NYY seems obvious, but do you see other teams bidding, like NYM, LAA, HOU maybe?
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12:35 |
: NYM makes a ton of sense to me. Houston seems unlikely, they’ve always been really into Maldonado. LAA, I dunno, that doesn’t feel like the kind of trade they like to swing
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12:36 |
: I hope the Cubs keep Contreras, he’s a nice connection to the past and I know Cubs fans love him
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12:36 |
: I myself am not a huge fan of his human rain delay tendencies, but hey, I’m a Cardinals fan, so I can’t exactly talk
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12:36 |
: You said you were going for burritos last chat, what’s your go to spot in SF?
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12:36 |
: Don’t judge me, but there’s a The Little Chihuahua near me that I usually go to
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12:37 |
: my favorite in the city is La Taqueria but I don’t live near the mission
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12:37 |
: so that’s more of an event
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12:37 |
: Hi Ben, I really liked your article on the AppleTV probabilities. Is there anything interesting or weird you found in your assessment that you weren’t able to include in the article? Like maybe one of the models was pretty good at predicting one specific category but awful at another
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12:37 |
: I thought it was interesting that the errors on GIDP and RBI were meaningfully lower than on reach base
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12:38 |
: I don’t have a great way of thinking about that, because I couldn’t create a naive model there, but I thought that was interesting
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12:38 |
: Maybe players are more uniform in those situations? Maybe modeling groundball rates adds something helpful?
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12:38 |
: putting your cards fan hat on, what are your initial opinions/thoughts of liberatore and gorman?
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12:39 |
: Gorman bops just like we expected. Liberatore shows flashes of pretty secondary stuff but isn’t very efficient; I’m definitely higher on Gorman than Libby and I think the early evaluations match that. I still find Liberatore’s pitch mix kinda confusing, they don’t seem to pair well, but I’m gonna hold judgment for a while longer
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12:39 |
: What do you think went on behind the scenes to cause Girardi to get fired?
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12:40 |
: I think that it wouldn’t take much. Probably the players were bristling a little bit and that’s all they needed
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12:40 | : With all the talk about model assessment, one page I’ve found interesting on assessing model accuracy is 538’s “Checking our Work” page. I think the calibration plots in particular are a simple, interpretable way to see that events are occurring at roughly the same rate a model says they will. Does FanGraphs have something similar to this? |
12:40 |
: We did it for our playoff odds last year:
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12:41 |
: Why does Fangraphs use Neil Pallante instead of Andre Pallante?
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12:41 |
: There are a few of these, I think
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12:41 |
: We pull our data from MLB directly
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12:41 |
: so whatever they’re listed as by the league, we follow
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12:41 |
: causes some Josh/Joshua Fuentes mishaps, the occasional Jonathon/JP Feyereisen, etc.
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12:42 |
: Curious about Josh H. Smith in Tex. He’s listed as a top 100 prospect but as N/A on the team list. Is that because of the midseason trade or just an oversight?
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12:42 |
: It’s b/c of the midseason trade last year and b/c this year’s Rangers list isn’t out yet
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12:42 |
: So he’s never been on a Rangers list we’ve produced. When this year’s comes out he’ll be on it, near the top if not at the top
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12:43 |
: worried about Merrifield?
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12:43 |
: We passed worried a while ago
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12:43 |
: ESPN released their deadline preview today, and I spotted Austin Hedges on their list of “bats”. First of all, lol. Second, would the Guardians actually move on from Hedges even if they’re out of contention? Seems like they really like his guidance of a young pitching staff
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12:43 |
: I mean, Austin Hedges owns more bats than I do
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12:43 |
: but yeah I think he stays
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12:43 |
: Whoa, whoa, whoa, tough because of the fans? That’s only if you suck, and then you deserve our scorn. If you win, you’re a legend. Fans aren’t a problem, we’re just a barometer on how good of a job you’re doing.
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12:43 |
: Haha I don’t entirely agree with this. I don’t think that if there were a different manager in town, the team would be 35-25 or whatever
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12:44 |
: Like yeah, Philly (and New York and Boston and….)
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12:44 |
: fans only get down on you when the team is bad
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12:44 |
: But sometimes the team is bad for reasons outside your control. Girardi isn’t the one out there playing little league defense, though perhaps his clubhouse management didn’t help things
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12:45 |
: I like passionate fans! But given the current composition of the Phillies, the manager is gonna get booed unless they start hitting a LOT of homers
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12:45 |
: So that’s a pretty cool story with two TJ and cancer
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12:45 |
: Indeed
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12:45 |
: Everyone is rooting for him, I think it’s safe to say. Hell of a story
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12:45 |
: I think Libatore might need to switch the slider to a truer cutter, looking at the spin profiles on savant makes it seem like the fourseam and curve have good spins together and the changeup and fastball have good tilt differences. Pair the sinker with a cuter?
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12:46 |
: I could see that. I haven’t been impressed by his four-seam yet but I’ve only seen parts of his ML starts and not the minor league ones, so that’s not a huge sample size
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12:46 |
: Board Game Weekend was amazing. Gaia Project might be one of the most frustrating/enjoyable games I’ve ever played. Anachrony is amazing. The Strat-o-matic idea was met with interest by one pal, so we’ll see what comes of that…
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12:47 |
: Nice! I’ve heard Gaia Project is exactly that, and I’m intrigued
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12:47 |
: I played Dune:Imperium this week for the first time, it is very well designed in my opinion
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12:47 |
: Do you think a slow curve or a slow change-up is necessary in pitching? I think a fast curve and a fast change-up are more likely to get strikeouts. Do slow curves and changeups make it harder for batters to aim?
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12:48 |
: I think it’s contextual to the pitcher. If you have really good strikeout stuff I think it generally makes sense to lean into it. If you’re still not gonna strike out too many even with your harder secondaries, mixing them up to make contact and timing harder seems wise
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12:48 |
: have you ever played slay the spire? feel like you would like it
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12:48 |
: Yeah, love it
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12:49 |
: Is Kyle Hendricks approaching the end of the line? He’s getting hit hard!
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12:49 |
: Yeah I think so
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12:49 |
: I did a segment on Sleeper and the Bust last week about him
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12:49 |
: His command has gone from ‘otherworldly precise’ to ‘eh, okay’ and that isn’t gonna work
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12:49 |
: If that comes back I’ll be more into it, but he’ll have to prove it to me first
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12:50 |
: Incidentally, check out ‘Ben Clemens Investigates’, coming to the Sleeper and the Bust intermittently throughout the year
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12:50 |
: Who closes for the O’s once Lopez is traded?
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12:50 |
: Akin, maybe? That’s who I would try first
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12:50 |
: Ben. I am a big sports fan and have friends that are sports fans. How soon can MLB put my company on its broadcasts to show off our newest stats.
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12:50 |
: Immediately!
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12:50 |
: Well, it depends, do you have some nebulous connections to in-game wagers?
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12:50 |
: If so, immediately!
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12:50 |
: Tiny sample size theater – are you intriqued by Matt Carpenter’s new flyball swing?
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12:50 |
: Yes! Particularly in Yankee Stadium
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12:51 |
: Those Triple-A numbers even looked real
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12:51 |
: Looks like Caleb Kilian might debut tomorrow in the cubs double header. I know cubs fans are excited because he is the first real pitching prospect they have had. But he also seems to have changed and added more velo. Is he going to be a top of the rotation guy or a 4/5?
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12:51 |
: I am wayyyyyy into Kilian
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12:51 |
: Saw him in Fall League, he looked great, the velo was there too
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12:51 |
: I think he is a potential Pablo Lopez type
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12:51 |
: Where you aren’t wowed by any one thing but he just shoves
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12:52 |
: who’s responsible for the content of teams announcers? The league or the individual team? Im starting to get annoyed by some announcers spending the whole broadcast complaining about how the game is played. Someone needs to realize that’s not a great way to keep fans.
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12:52 |
: Mostly the individual team or their RSN
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12:52 |
: There’s some shared responsibility there. But in essence, they’re team employees
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12:52 |
: I didn’t think Rafael Montero was more than a salary dump throw-in in the Graveman trade. But here he is in June with a 0.44 ERA. Real or fool’s gold?
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12:52 |
: I’ll take a (small) victory lap here, I thought Montero was a great get for the Astros, since the Mariners DFA’ed him and then threw him in for free
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12:53 |
: I totally believe. Why wouldn’t you? His career stats are still really good. He’s not this good but he’s an above-average reliever imo
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12:53 |
: Christopher Morel…..flash in the pan, or is this real?
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12:53 |
: Eh, little of both
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12:53 |
: Can you explain how I’ve been so good??? And whether it has any chance of continuing
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12:53 |
: I absolutely cannot
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12:53 |
: are you a brad Thompson enjoyer on the cards broadcast? I think he and Dan’s chemistry is pretty alright
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12:53 |
: He’s grown on me
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12:53 |
: If you had a child and named him or her after a ball player, who would it be?
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12:53 |
: Oh, I like this question
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12:54 |
: Ozzie Smith is my favorite player of all time but that’s not really a name I’m in love with for my kid
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12:54 |
: How about Curtis?
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12:54 |
: Granderson is my wife’s favorite player of all time, he’s just an awesome dude, and I like the name
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12:54 |
: Almost boring that he keeps doing this but he’s really pitching this well. Not 1.5 good but still.
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12:54 |
: It’s not boring but it’s shocking that I kinda expect it
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12:55 |
: I don’t think he’ll keep it up but when you find one of these sum-more-than-parts guys I feel like they tend to keep it going
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12:55 |
: Unscientific in the extreme, but that’s just the kind of answers you’re getting in today’s speed chat
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12:55 |
: What is wrong with José Berríos? Can u fix him pls?
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12:55 |
: So you’re saying I shouldn’t have picked him to win the Cy Young?
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12:55 |
: That one didn’t age well, to say the least
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12:56 |
: Re: the thing about announcers complaining: if I had a nickel for every time Rex Hudler talks about the Royals needing to bunt, pitch to contact, and hit dinky opposite field singles I would have enough money to buy the team and hire a GM that’s not Dayton Moore
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12:56 |
: Not every broadcast does this, but the ones that do really stick with you, you know?
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12:56 |
: this impostor Ben doesn’t even know my real chat schedule
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12:57 |
: I couldn’t resist a chance to get some Phillies fans in here and also talk Apple odds on the day their broadcast goes up
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12:57 |
: Also, didn’t chat this Monday b/c of the holiday
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12:57 |
: Another Cards question: why have Alec Burleson and Moises Gomez not been promoted yet? (to MLB and AAA, respectively)
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12:57 |
: No clue tbh. Corey Dickerson’s welcome is wearing thin
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12:58 |
: Enjoyed the Cimber piece and I’m wondering how much stock you put into the effectiveness of having multiple “looks” out of the bullpen. By swapping out guys with different arm slots can you basically get better results than if you have similar guys instead.
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12:58 |
: I do believe it and have tried on and off to quantify it
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12:58 |
: I’ve consistently failed!
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12:59 |
: But it’s the kind of effect I’ll keep looking for, b/c smart teams keep doing it and it keeps making good intuitive sense
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1:00 |
: I’ve been a longtime Cimber fan, since his Padres days, because that delivery is just SO weird
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1:00 |
: Maybe it’s just a late breakout. He’s only 27 not 35 right?
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1:00 |
: Oh yeah, totally could be. I more mean the way he does it, with a mixture of good-not-great pitches and good command and sequencing and deception
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1:00 |
: Phillies fan here, watch tonight’s game and see how loudly we cheer Trout. It’s cool to see that we’re not always asshats.
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1:00 |
: Lived in Philly for four years. Their fans are the absolute worst. Made me an anti Philly fan
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1:00 |
: any reason why pujols has nearly double the PA’s against righties than lefties? i thought stl was going to be strategic with his use.
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1:00 |
: It’s b/c he’s Albert Pujols
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1:01 |
: It’s maddening
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1:01 |
: They’re giving away the very valuable skills they get from him (crushing lefties, occasional DH duty vR when no one else is rested) by overusing him
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1:02 |
: Truly not a fan of it
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1:02 |
: I like a lot of the stuff Oli Marmol is doing, his usage of Pujols is not one of those things
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1:02 |
: Some of it is b/c Dickerson has just been awful; but when you use Pujols against soft-tossing righties, that leaves Dickerson to face elite velocity a ton of the time
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1:02 |
: He’s not exactly getting a fair shake either
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1:02 |
: How do you feel about Robbie Ray? His velocity and strikeouts have been trending back to what you’d expect but he’s still getting blown up a lot.
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1:03 |
: I think he’ll be fine
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1:03 |
: Some blowups come with the territory in Robbie Ray land, but the stabilization in velo cuts down my worries that he’s hurt, and if his command keeps being acceptable, he’s just gonna strike a ton of guys out and provide value
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1:03 |
: He’s just so hard to hit
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1:03 |
: Seeing Marmol using Pujols over Gorman last night was quite maddening.
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1:04 |
: Gorman may have been hurt, I’ll give him a pass there
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1:04 |
: Curtis Clemens? Gotta go with a C middle name for the alliteration.
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1:04 |
: I dunno what we’d do about last names. Maybe choose a completely new one
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1:04 |
: Seems weird to pick one of our names over the other
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1:04 |
: Is Carson Kelly’s defense good enough to push Varsho back to the OF and Pavin Smith to the bench? I know you’re getting lots of questions about D-Backs roster construction but this is definitely the best one.
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1:04 |
: I think it should be
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1:05 |
: I’m not a huge fan of Varsho behind the plate, though I can understand why they want to try him there — that’s a valuable extra skill to have, regardless of whether he can play the outfield and hit well
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1:05 |
: I just think Kelly’s defense is so clearly good that it’s a shame to waste it
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1:05 |
: think Marmol being younger than Pujols has anything to do with that or is it mostly just a farewell tour thing
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1:05 |
: i still want to see Pujols get the all the home runs though.
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1:05 |
: Farewell tour thing, in my opinion
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1:06 |
: He’s Albert Freaking Pujols. He’s one of the best-respected players in the game
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1:06 |
: What outfield help should the Brewers be looking for at the trade deadline? Taylor and Renfroe doesn’t quite cut it…
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1:06 |
: Dan wrote about some today
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1:06 |
: I could see Benintendi working out okay, they really could just use more bats of any stripe
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1:07 |
: Will Brujan hit enough to stay up and hold down a job?
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1:07 |
: Ooh, good question
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1:07 |
: I’m skeptical that he’s going to be a plus hitter, but I think the speed and versatility play enough that he’ll get plenty of chances to develop
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1:08 |
: Is Jackson Chourio actually the next top prospect in the minors? Seeing a lot of hype that he’s the future number 1 overall prospect in the MLB
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1:08 |
: I’ll be honest: I’ve seen the same hype and I really don’t know
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1:08 |
: The error bands on guys his age are so wide
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1:08 |
: When does Aranda get a look, because Walls and Brujan aren’t cutting it.
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1:08 |
: I think Walls is pretty locked in
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1:09 |
: They like his defense more than they dislike his offense
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1:09 |
: I’d like to see Aranda get some run, though, there’s just not that much more for him to prove in the minors
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1:09 |
: How great was that Pham-Pederson story? I haven’t laughed at a headline like that in a while.
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1:09 |
: It is the best story we’ve had in baseball all year
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1:10 |
: It made me like both Joc and Pham more
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1:10 |
: The delightful interview where Joc was just showing his phone to reporters, A+
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1:11 |
: Pham saying he owed Joc a slap for disrespecting the Padres and then doing it six months later, I don’t condone slapping, but if you’re going to do it, doing that and then being done with it is also hilarious
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1:11 |
: Them both agreeing that Trout was maybe not the best commissioner, and then Trout having to decline comment on whether he’d step down as commissioner? I mean, you can’t make this stuff up
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1:11 |
: Re:Pham-Joc. I wish The League was still on to cover this beef
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1:11 |
: It would have been an excellent episode theme
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1:11 |
: What do you make of Anthony Volpe’s struggles in AA? Adjustment period or too high expectations after last season?
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1:12 |
: A little from column A, a little from column B
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1:12 |
: Prospects don’t usually overwhelm every level they play in forever
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1:12 |
: Odds Jose Altuve tops his career high in wRC+ this year? At 159 now, vs 160 his MVP year in 2017.
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1:12 |
: I’ll make it 15%
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1:12 |
: To top your career wRC+ when it’s something that high, you want to be well ahead of the pace at this point in the year
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1:13 |
: That MTV claymation death match show would make baseball mainstream again with the Pham slap.
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1:13 |
: Vinnie P or Casas long term? I feel like the team context will hold Vinnie down, even though its possible he’s the superior overall hitter.
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1:13 |
: Gimme Casas, I feel like his natural power is going to lead to a lot of oppo homers and doubles in Fenway
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1:14 |
: who would you have as the early roy in each league based on performance up to this point? pena and morel? both look legit to my untrained eye but id like to hear your take
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1:14 |
: Pena and TBD in the NL
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1:14 |
: just no one really impressing me so far
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1:15 |
: Do the Cubs extend or trade Willy? If they trade him, what is a realistic return? Would the Mets consider giving up one of their top prospects for another Cub rental?
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1:16 |
: I don’t know but I hope they extend him
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1:16 |
: Like I said, it’d be weird to have no Cubs left over from that team so soon
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1:16 |
: hot take: trading Soto would be bad for baseball if it happened
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1:16 |
: Is that a hot take?
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1:17 |
: How good are Masyn Winn and Moises Gomez, really? They’re putting up videogame numbers, and Winn is out slugging Walker (!).
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1:17 |
: Masyn Winn is gonna be a top 50 prospect next year, and in my head he’ll be a top 10
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1:17 |
: I’m skeptical of Gomez, just b/c the rest of the track record is so different
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1:17 |
: RE: ROY is harris advanced enough offensively to jump into that mix or is he just a stopgap til they come up with something better? his def at least looks ready
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1:18 |
: I don’t really know enough about his bat to give you a solid answer there. But the barrier to entry is low! The NL ROY has just been a mixture of underperformance and injury so far
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1:18 |
: Can you help me figure out who Luis Castillo is? Seems to vacillate between near-ace and back-end innings eater.
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1:19 |
: I think his actual level is somewhere in between, obviously, but that’s not exactly the most helpful comment. I’d say that he might just be a change of scenery guy at this point
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1:19 |
: The Reds seem to have good pitching develpoment… but they don’t seem to be getting the most out of Castillo
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1:19 |
: Might be time to hear a different voice
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1:19 |
: Yordan and ‘Stros. 6 years $115M.
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1:20 |
: Tune in Monday for me to write about the Yordan extension and tell you why he’s better than you think even if you think he’s good
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1:20 |
: Best 1-2 in baseball Nestor-Taillon? Only team with multiple top 10 in fWAR; yankees 3 is not bad, some guy named Gerrit Cole (10th currently)
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1:20 |
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1:20 |
: J-Rod deserves some play for ROY
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1:21 |
: He does. I don’t think that race is over and done with by any means
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1:21 |
: It’s kind of the opposite of teh NL
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1:21 |
: Do you expect Seiya to adjust when he returns from the IL? After such a hot start he fell really hard
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1:21 |
: I do, because he looks to me like someone who is making adjustments a lot out there, but yeah, the drop was almost as big as the build up
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1:22 |
: Please stop telling people about Yordan! I drafted him in the seventh frickin round this year and I want to keep it that way
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1:22 |
: I think that contract has ended your odds
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1:22 |
: Of doing that again
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1:22 |
: If you like 6 Nimmt, I highly suggest Skull King. Mixes the “will my card do what I want it to” feeling with copious amounts of pirate talk. Also screwing over your friends.
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1:22 |
: I’ll add that to the list for next time, I like that style of game
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1:22 |
: Me and the wife are hyphenating our child’s name. We didn’t like choosing one or the other either, so why not both?
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1:22 |
: re: lastnames my partner and I have thought of a joint lastname BhucClellan I suppose
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1:22 |
: That’s a possibility, or something totally new
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1:23 |
: A friend of mine’s brother changed his last name from Brown to Phoenix when he got married, I kinda liked that
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1:23 |
: Do you think this Astros core of Tucker/Alvarez/Pena + Javier/Garcia/Uruiqudy/Valdez + Lee coming through, is maybe better than the past one?
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1:24 |
: It’s honestly kinda close
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1:24 |
: Yeah I think it’s better
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1:24 |
: or like, if people pan out as I expect, I think it’ll be better
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1:25 |
: Yordan is a better hitter than anyone in that last generation, I think
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1:25 |
: perhaps not a better all around player, Correa, Springer, and Altuve all provided more defensive value by a lot
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1:25 |
: but man he is such a good hitter
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1:25 |
: Tucker is Springer-ish, and there’s much more pitching this time around
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1:25 |
: Should Astros explore 1B options?
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1:26 |
: They should. I’m not convinced there’s much out there unless Votto wants to move, but getting a first baseman would be nice
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1:26 |
: I don’t think they will do it unless they’re getting a huge upgrade
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1:26 |
: The team loves Yuli
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1:26 |
: But life comes at you pretty fast sometimes
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1:26 |
: What about Gore doe NL ROY? Kid has been dealing.
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1:27 |
: Yeah if he keeps it up throw him in there too. He might actually lead the group in WAR
|
1:28 |
: is yordan for fields more lopsided than tatis for shields? lad usu doesnt make those types of mistakes
|
1:28 |
: It’s not
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1:29 |
: But it’s not THAT far behind
|
1:29 |
: How worried should Mariners fans be about kelenic?
|
1:29 |
: I’d say quite worried
|
1:30 |
: I’m not closing the book on him or anything, but look, that’s a lot of failure
|
1:30 |
: As a Cardinal fan (right?), any thoughts on Andre Pallante? Think he can be a starter?
|
1:30 |
: Indeed… and yeah, I think he could be, I’ve been impressed by his ability to shift to the majors pretty seamlessly
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1:30 |
: Alright, on that note, speed chat has been accomplished, that was a pretty furious hour of questions and answers
|
1:31 |
: If you’re watching the fancy Friday night baseball broadcast tonight, please check out my article on checking the odds:
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1:31 |
: Oh, and definitely also listen to the interview with nVenue’s CEO on Effectively Wild:
|
1:32 |
: It was a bit surreal but an enjoyable listen
|
1:32 |
: Have a great day, everyone, and heck, have a great weekend!
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Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.