Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 7/10/23

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: Let’s hit some trade deadline questions, some All Star questions, and whatever else is on your mind, baseball or otherwise

Drew: Happy Allstar Break!  Should the Padres trade Kim, Soto, Snell, and Hader to re-load for 2024 and clear some money off the books to make a go at signing Ohtani?

Ben Clemens: Nah, I don’t think so — maybe Hader and Snell if they fall further out of the race but Kim and Soto seem important for 2024

Byron Denniston: Hello! Can yous guys write a piece on how boring, overrated, and delusional it is for the Cubs to sell their way into saving The Future 2.0? What do these people think a 92 MPH Stroman and an 86 MPH EV Bellinger can actually bring back?

Ben Clemens: I think I generally agree with this, and with Stroman the opt out is also tricky

Ben Clemens: Like, what are they gonna get for half a year of Bellinger? A nice prospect surely

Ben Clemens: but nothing wild

Izzy: I know his BAPIP is high, but how much of Riley Greene’s season is sustainable? His BAPIP will fall, but he was a top ranked prospect for a reason, so will any untapped talent offset the BAPIP?

Ben Clemens: I was just looking at Greene today as I do more trade value digging

Ben Clemens: I think that the untapped talent is going to help, but that he’s probably not THIS good

Ben Clemens: He hits the crap out of the ball, that’s real, but with this kind of strikeout rate I think he’s headed for a correction

Ben Clemens: The next improvement probably comes on the plate discipline side

Ross: What did you think of the Mariners draft so far? Seems like there is quite a bit of disappointment at the picks and not the greatest reviews.

Alex: Did you like the Mariners draft or did they miss? Seeing them ranked as draft losers in a few places.

Ben Clemens: I am not really a draft person, we’ve got Eric and Michael for htat

Ohtani Stan: With the news that Trout is out for an extended period and with how firey-hot Ohtani is right now, what do you think the % is that he’s moved by the trade deadline? I just don’t see how the angels make the playoffs with Trout out and the recent skid

Ben Clemens: I still think it’s not that high but if I were the Angels I’d do it, I think the returns would be huge

CB: How big a teardown will the Cardinals go through? Like 1 or 2 of their chips or all of the pending FAs? And what odds would you put on a bigger deal like Goldy or Arenado?

Ben Clemens: I don’t know, because the Cards don’t really do this. If I were them, which is the best I can do, I’d trade all the pending FA’s, and consider moving Helsley and Goldy

Ben Clemens: but I think you’d want to get a real haul to move Goldy, b/c he can be a key part of next year’s team too

Ben Clemens: Arenado isn’t getting moved after opting in

Farhandrew Zaidman: Day Two, Electric Boogaloo! Seems like teams are actually valuing speed/athleticism with the new rules…

Ben Clemens: Yeah, cool to see

MrMet: Hi! If you were running the Pirates, who would you have chosen first in the draft and why?

Ben Clemens: Ah, a draft question I can totally answer

Ben Clemens: I would’ve taken Crews

Ben Clemens: b/c he’s the best player

Sodo Mojo: I know you are not the draft guy but in concept would you rather be the Mariners with 3 late first round picks or the Nationals picking at #2?

Ben Clemens: Nats

slap hitter: Did the Mariners make a mistake giving J-Rod that contract? He looks much more above average regular with barely league average offense paired with great D than the superstar he looked like last year.

Ben Clemens: There was another Julio question in here but I’m just going to answer this one to cover both

Ben Clemens: I just don’t buy that he’s going to end up as a league average offensive player

Ben Clemens: I think last year is better than his underlying talent level and this year is worse

Ben Clemens: This is overly reductive, but his xSLG has declined by 20 points this year. His actual SLG has declined by 100 points

bosoxforlife: Do you have a comment, I am tongue-tied, on Elly De La Cruz’s week. 14/30 topped off by the amazing baserunning play on Saturday. Are you on the Reds bandwagon yet?

Ben Clemens: I have been since Votto came back

Ben Clemens: My comment is that it’s awesome and I don’t think that people appreciate just how fast he is

Who’s Fabio: Hey Ben – how do you think the pitch clock and other rule changes might affect players that have been hurt all year but will play again in MLB?  What I’m asking is, will there be a catch up period?  Worse for hitters or pitchers or no effect?

Ben Clemens: My guess is that it’s worse for hitters coming back now that most of the pitcdhers you face will just be ready to go

Ben Clemens: for a pitcher, eh, you just throw. For a hitter there’s a lot of reacting, and you’re reacting to a totally different rhythm now

Guest: Gunnar or Adley?

Ben Clemens: Adley for me

Colton: Probably gonna get this a few times, but who was the biggest winner from day 1 of the draft in your opinion?

Ben Clemens: Nats for me b/c I like Crews, but yeah, I’m not our draft guy

WooWoo: Do you buy Brian Woo and Bryce Miller as top of the rotation arms? If not, how do you view them.

Ben Clemens: I view them as in the 2-4 starter range with plenty of uncertainty

McGraw45: Padres just unlucky, or is there more to it? Every time I watch it seems like they hit the ball hard, pitch well, and play amazing defense, and lose.

Ben Clemens: I ask myself this a lot

Ben Clemens: Now that Machado is getting hot, it’s even more confusing

TomBruno23: OK Ben…odds the Cardinals trade Montgomery by 7/31 (I know, complicated by the hamstring)…Flaherty…O’Neill…DeJong…

Ben Clemens: Hm…. let’s go 65%, 85%, 30%, 40%

Ben Clemens: I just don’t think that O’Neill is much of a trade chip

Ben Clemens: Who is trading for a hurt, below replacement level outfielder a year from free agency

Ben Clemens: DeJong is interesting, his team options are not attractive to me really but he’s a good defender and okay hitter, that’s a really nice utility piece even for a good team

Romorr: As an Orioles fan I feel bad asking this, but should the White Sox make Cease available, or do you see rentals going away, and enough there to compete in 2024?  Central is weak, so a few smart adds could go a long way for them.

Ben Clemens: I think that they’re going to make Cease available for the right return but not feel priced into trading him

Bandon Brelt: is andres gimenez finally turning a corner after his horrid start? almost up to 100 wRC+!

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I dig it. He’s hitting the ball hard after some weak contact early on, and that feels really important to me

Ben Clemens: He doesn’t really have the requisite on base skills to survive without any power

Anon21: Least-good contract of the Braves’ extension spree (Acuña, Albies, Riley, Olson, Murphy, Strider, Harris)? I am torn between Olson, who’s having a good year but may not age well, and Riley, who’s having a mediocre year and has the most money committed.

Ben Clemens: It’s Olson for me, but like, they’re all great

Ben Clemens: Just for the age reason

Ben Clemens: I think Riley is going to have a better second half, he still looks great to me, I think this is just noise

Spach: How would you rank these SPs for RoS: Yu Darvish, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Tyler Glasnow

Ben Clemens: Gilberg, Kirby, Glasnow, Darvish

Romorr: Orioles should look to improve their pitching any way they can, 100%. But rotation over BP is the smarter move, if only 1 move is there for them, yes?

Ben Clemens: Totally

Ben Clemens: They’re so good at developing and finding relievers, and they have a great bullpen already so the improvements there aren’t as good as for teams that don’t already have a great 1/2

Ben Clemens: like, their highest leverage innings are already spoken for

J: On the flip side, the Cubs got their 1st or 2nd best pitching prospect for half a year of David Robertson. They can probably get some useful pieces for their rentals even if it’s not a massive haul.

Ben Clemens: To be clear I’d trade them

Ben Clemens: I just don’t think they’re going to fetch what people are hoping for

Ben Clemens: And yeah, I agree, that Robertson trade was nice

Farhandrew Zaidman: Pretty much every contender should be calling on Amir Garrett, right?

Datt Mamon: Amir Garrett just got DFA’d by the Royals. His 3.33 ERA “masks” a 5.59 FIP and a 17% walk rate by way of an 85% strand rate. Do they think he has trade value or is he headed to the wire?

Ben Clemens: I think he’ll get the Royals a lottery ticket prospect

Halltimore: Hello Ben. Thanks for doing the chat today.  Two part question. Do you have any news on DL Hall besides being sent to complex ball to gain strength and work on his stuff/control?  Does Baltimore still envision him as a SP or is it becoming apparent he’s destined as a RP?

Ben Clemens: I do not have any info on him, but he certainly feels reliever-y to me at this point

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Ben Clemens: Hey there

KJ: I know there was a piece on this early in the season, and just coming off the IL, but is Alejandro Kirk broken? Or was just playing above his head last year

Ben Clemens: I guess I think it’s a bit of both plus a bit of ‘everyone has a down year’

TomBruno23: I am not so sure the Cardinals have to trade the pending FAs when it comes to Montgomery and Flaherty. All depends on the offer as compared to the extra draft pick/bonus pool dollars.

Ben Clemens: I don’t think they’re gonna QO Flaherty

Ben Clemens: I agree with you on Montgomery

Kid: Want to get your thoughts on two super young hitters who recently signed long term deals – Wander and Julio Rodriguez.  Both have had good spells, but have largely been underwhelming hitters this year (Wander is just 100 wRC+ since May 10th, and Julio has been hovering around 100-105 wRC+ all year after posting 146 last year).  Do either/both get it going?

Ben Clemens: So, Wander is maybe always gonna be hot and cold, but he has 3.8 WAR on the back of a 124 wRC+, so like, that’s good production even if it’s streaky

Ben Clemens: I’m the opposite of worried about him, he seems great

Ben Clemens: Also all defensive systems seem to agree that he’s looking excellent there

Ben Clemens: Julio…. he’s still hitting the ball hard, I think this is just a soft spell and his defense and baserunning give him a really nice cushion, as discussed above

v2micca: Angels have to be buyers at the deadline right?  They have to know that failing to make the post-season this year almost completely kills any chance they have to signing Ohtani to an extension.

Ben Clemens: Well…. I don’t think they’re signing Ohtani anyway

Ben Clemens: with Trout on the shelf, this is a tough one

Ben Clemens: I’m an always go for it kind of guy

Ben Clemens: But I think the return for Ohtani could be massive, even for a rental

Ben Clemens: The Angels know better than us whether they are likely to bring him back

jj: For some reason I have more confidence in Riley Greene (even with the super high BABIP) than a guy like Luis Robert Jr.  At least Greene seems to be able to walk and control the strike zone a little better. Robert seems like everything is going to wrong way except his power numbers (which have gone a right way in a big way) . I feel like he could be up and down a lot more than a guy Greene.  What do you think?

Ben Clemens: I do not think this

Ben Clemens: Robert is an absolutely elite center fielder

Ben Clemens: I don’t think he’s gonna keep hitting like this, but he’s playing at an MVP (non-Ohtani reality) pace right now

Ben Clemens: I like Greene’s bat more on balance, but defense matters

Ben Clemens: I totally agree that his offense is by its very nature streakier than Greene’s, it’s more homers than walks, and homers happen less frequently

Miley: What would be a bigger surprise, the NLCentral getting two playoff teams or the AL Central champ finishing under .500?

Ben Clemens: NLC two playoff teams haha

Ben Clemens: not that either are particularly likely

Soundwave: I know you aren’t the draft guru, but have you heard any talk about the Clark pick re: was it about going under slot or did the Tigers just like him better than Langford?

Ben Clemens: Eric talked about this in his chat, I think there are rumors that Clark’s number was lower than Langford’s ad they liked them similarly

Andrew: To win the AL East: would you take the Rays or the field?

Ben Clemens: Rays

Ben Clemens: 7 games is a ton

Ben Clemens: (that’s 1st to 3rd)

Ben Clemens: so it’s really just Rays/O’s

Ben Clemens: and I like the Rays in that by a decent margin even though I picked the O’s to win the division before the year

v2micca: Is it just me, or are the Nationals always drafting in the top two when there is some historically regarded talent in the draft?

Ben Clemens: skill game

Max: How do you feel about expansion? It seems that there are plenty of guys that could either get a real shot with more league-wide roster space, or could start on those teams. I think it’s a different story between hitting/pitching but still.

Ben Clemens: I’m in favor of it

Ben Clemens: I think it would help get rid of this glut of really good arms that every team seems to have

Ben Clemens: like, the tail ends of bullpens still throw 98 with nasty sliders

Sodo Mojo: Welcome to Seattle if you are here. Do you think the Mariners are buyers at the deadline they have played well as of late but are still just around 20% to make the post season.

Ben Clemens: I kinda think they should retool, but there’s an obvious problem: who would they trade?

Ben Clemens: Like, Teoscar? Suarez? Sewald?

Ben Clemens: I think what they’ll probably actually do is make a few token buying moves but mostly stay pat

Izzy: I think the Cubs are so deep in good but not great prospects, that they should roll the dice for risky upside guys with every pick. Is that too extreme?

Ben Clemens: Every pick? Probably too extreme

Ben Clemens: Lean that way? Totally agree with you

Guest: i even waited past the 60 game mark before starting to believe and the angels still made me sad 🙁

Ben Clemens: 🙁

Farhandrew Zaidman: This is me manifesting my Burnes + Adames to Dodgers for AA pitchers and AAA bats into the universe.

Ben Clemens: I still don’t think the Brewers are interested in trading Adames

Ben Clemens: but it fits! The Brewers are also the kings of randomly selling when they’re in the playoff race

J: I know you are not a fantasy writer but what do you think about trading Nico Hoerner for Braxton Garrett, 6×6 OPS and QS league? I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from Garrett lately.

Ben Clemens: I think it’s fine, Garrett is pitching well and Hoerner is hardly can’t miss

Miley: is There any way the. Refers couls trade Corbin Burnes at the deadline AND get better down the stretch in 2023?

Ben Clemens: I mean, no

Axel: Has Volpe figured it out? Curious how his recent play has impacted your thoughts regarding him and the trade value list

Ben Clemens: This is gonna be obnoxiously milquetoast but I was never really THAT low on him

Ben Clemens: He’s young, guys don’t always click right away

Ben Clemens: He’s ranked fairly highly on the list

Harmon Ripkowski: Have the Angels really wasted Trout’s years, or have they been snakebit? Seems like pundits really applauded some of their signings at the time…

Ben Clemens: Porque no los dos

bosoxforlife: How many years before a team not named the Atlanta Braves wins the NL East/ The lineup that the Braves send out every game is amazing and most are signed for years to come.

Ben Clemens: I am not done with the list yet, and I think this is already not true anymore, but in my first trade value cut 5 of the top 15 players were Braves

Ben Clemens: It s wild. Really well done, ATL

Duff: I’ve heard some people say Ohtani is a risky signing because it’ll be hard to keep up the two way greatness, but isn’t he less risky because of that? If he just becomes a good hitting outfielder or top of the rotation starter that’s still a really good player.

Ben Clemens: Yeah that doesn’t make a ton of sense to me

Byron Denniston: What can Jameson Taillon do different in the second half? Velo seems fine

Ben Clemens: Walk fewer people. It’s not that he has a huge walk rate, but when he’s good, he’s walking almost no one

Adam: I feel like if the White Sox choose to blow it up and rebuild this could be a deadline where 5-6 teams get alot better. Its amazing to me that they arent better

Ben Clemens: They did this before with the Eaton/Sale/etc. core, and that was super fun

Ben Clemens: I mean, perhaps not for Sox fans, but they got a lot of juice out of those trades

jj: Yeah the Robert v Greene question was 100% just talking about hitting.  Just looking at Robert’s K%, swing% and walk% , makes me nervous that he could have a Javy Baez type of season or two with the bat at some point.  I do forget how young he is though so maybe he makes some changes, but how often does a 5.5% BB rate increase substantially after 1300 PA (especially on the South Side)?

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, I think he’ll always be a frustrating hitter

Ben Clemens: Talented but inconsistent

Ben Clemens: The guy just obliterates the ball when he connects

Jack: Is there any word on what’s going on with Tim Anderson? What’s going on with his dropoff? Could a change of scenery help at all or is it a deeper issue?

Ben Clemens: I haven’t heard a thing

Jay Bee: Hey Ben – thanks for the time today!  Question for you on Shane Bieber – I’m torn on what to think of him.  Underlying stats insinuate the bottom may fall out on him, but he’s somehow found a way to make it work this year (with the exception of a few blow ups).

Do you think this performance is sustainable?  And if the Guardians trade him, would he still draw a premium haul?

Ben Clemens: He would not draw a premium haul

Ben Clemens: I think his performance is probably sustainable, but uh, it’s a 3.77 ERA, let’s not get too overly excited

Ben Clemens: Highest ERA since his rookie year, and that’s with him outperforming his peripherals

Ben Clemens: I think they should probably just trade him because that’s how they operate, but they’re going to be grumpy about the returns

Appa Yip Yip: High school seasons are super short, so maybe I’m missing something but isn’t it weird guys can tumble really far in the draft based on like, 100 plate appearances? Obviously scouts have things they look for but it all seems so fraught.

Ben Clemens: This is 100% how I feel

Ben Clemens: Teams have HUGE groups looking into this stuff, of course, but it does feel a bit over engineered to me

Jeremy: Were you underwhelmed when you tried to built mic drop bullpens for the Dbacks and Rangers? I mean, is, say, “add Dave Robertson and Joe Kelly” really going to make the difference between a non-mic drop bullpen and a mic drop bullpen?

Ben Clemens: Haha I was a little bit underwhelmed by the available reliever class

Ben Clemens: I think that Helsley and Hader are the big names that could go

Ben Clemens: Helsley, Hicks, Barlow would really transform a bullpen

Ben Clemens: So would Hader/Robertson

Ben Clemens: but if you don’t get either Helsley or Hader, yeah, the rest of the names aren’t bowl-you-over good

Guest: At what point should the win probability be 100% prior to the end of the game? For instance, the Angels were up 25 to 1 in the 5th, but the win probability was only 99.8%. In what universe do teams come back twice in 1000 games with that score?

Ben Clemens: If that was our FG win percentage, I can basically tell you why that is

Ben Clemens: Ours are based on historical data and there aren’t enough games with those situations so we have to bundle

TomBruno23: I think QO to Flaherty is an easy “Yes” for STL given the draft benefits of him signing elsewhere or having him for a year to help fill out what we already know looks like a paper thin rotation (at best) heading into 2024.

Ben Clemens: We’ll see, I guess. It’s a pretty big raise, but they do have some money coming off the books in the form of Wainwright and likely DeJong

Ben Clemens: I just don’t know if adding a one-year starter for 20 million bucks is what the Cards are looking to do this offseason

Ben Clemens: particularly one who has a checkered injury history

bosoxforlife: Jarren Duran has been a revelation, and that is a gross understatement. He isn’t even qualified yet is second in the league in doubles. Is this for real or should the Red Sox sell high and get a pitcher? Heaven knows they need several.

Ben Clemens: I would keep him

Ben Clemens: Because I think he’s awesome

Ben Clemens: I’m in favor of keeping awesome players

Ben Clemens: I also think that ‘sell high’ is overused and doesn’t really work that well in practice

Ben Clemens: Like, let’s make up a scale. Say the guy was a 6 last year, is playing at an 11, and everyone says ‘well sell high’

Ben Clemens: teams aren’t valuing him like an 11. They’re probably valuing him like an 8

Ben Clemens: I think that holding and seeing if he’s an 11 is often a good plan

Eh?: Are the 2023 Rays comparable to the 2021 Giants? A bunch of 90th percentile outcomes that make up one really good team? We knew they’d be decent, but it seems like every player is overperforming relative to expectations.

Ben Clemens: Yes, very good comp

Ben Clemens: The difference for me is that it’s younger guys, so it feels more like it could carry to the future, but that’s totally what’s going on

Harmon Ripkowski: You bring in a pinch runner from anytime in baseball history, who do you bring in?

Ben Clemens: Peak Rickey

Ben Clemens: Normally I’d do the whole ‘well athletes today just train more effectively thanks to scientific advancement, do the players in the past get to use modern training methods?’ hedge dance

Ben Clemens: but no, Rickey please

Hicks: Not mentioned in an earlier question was his chance of being traded? Will teams value him a little more because he has been a steady closer for the last month?

Ben Clemens: I think he’s 100% to get traded, 98% maybe just to hedge

TomBruno23: I am not saying the Cardinals are looking to add a one year starter for 20M for 2024 I am saying if that is the end result of the QO (and I do not think he would come back, probably gets a decent 1 year + option type deal from a club he wants to be with) I think they will be fine with it.  Much more likely he is dealt by 7/31 anyway.

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah I think he’s realllllly likely to get dealt

Ben Clemens: If they don’t go 9-1 out of the break or something

jj: I feel like only a few teams can risk signing a guy to $45mil+ who would be their best hitter and at least a #2 pitcher.  I mean it’s like if Freddie Freeman and Kershaw collide at 1B an both our out for an extended period of time.  I feel like that Ohtani specific risk actually makes his price go down. Maybe he will get some big playing time incentives to go with a $40mil contract.  Say $5mil for 20 starts or more and another $5mil for 400+ PA.

Ben Clemens: I just do not think this

Ben Clemens: Ohtani is gonna make you a mint in fan interest too

Ben Clemens: sell your team’s gear to an entire country!

Ben Clemens: and like, a real country, not Andorra

Ben Clemens: sorry Andorra, but last year I learned that Andorra’s two monarchs are the duly elected leader of France and the bishop of a region in northern Spain

Ben Clemens: and like, what

Deuce: With the increase in pitching injuries despite the lessening of usage, do you think a correction will take place? Valuing command/durability over velo and spin in pitching drafting and development.

Ben Clemens: I don’t think so, at least until there’s expansion. Teams jsut have so many backup options now

coors lightyear: should the red sox uh just trade james paxton while he’s looking like the best pitcher available and before he likely breaks again

Ben Clemens: 100% yes

Timmy: % Chance the Orioles win a WS in the next 5-6 years?

Ben Clemens: Ooh, I have no idea how to put a number on this, so I’ll say 15%

Ben Clemens: Huge Birdland fan though

Eh?: When are the Brewers going to blow it up? I mean, they HAVE to trade Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames at some point knowing the way they operate. Does it happen at the deadline? In the offseason?

Ben Clemens: I’m thinking offseason, but I think they are more likely to retain Adames b/c they have generally leaned towards retaining hitters

Ben Clemens: Like, you can’t trade Woodruff now, he hasn’t pitched

Pat: Did you consider Jason Foley & Alex Lange for the mic-drop piece? Both have years of control & Foley, in particular, has been really good this year & Lange seems better than his stats

Ben Clemens: I did

Ben Clemens: It was 2500 words so I just kinda stopped, but I think Foley is a nice complementary piece. He doesn’t strike enough guys out to really fit that category but I think he’ll get a nice return. Lange is more of a wait and see guy for me, I need him to walk slightly fewer batters, but he has the stuff to do it

J: I know the Brewers are the Brewers and might trade players anyways, but the idea of blowing it up when they’re just behind an over-performing Reds team is insane right?

Ben Clemens: Totally insane

Ben Clemens: bonkers

Ben Clemens: I strongly disagree with the way they operate

Drew: So the Padres try to extend Kim?  Seems like a great idea l, but doesn’t the Crownenworth extension hurt that possibility?

Ben Clemens: I think they should try to, yes, but I agree that things don’t line up well

Ben Clemens: It’s not very easy to trade Cronenworth either

Ben Clemens: I think this is heading towards a huge push in 2024, step back in 2025 to rebuild around Tatis? But that’s weird with Machado and Bogaerts. I dunno, I really cannot wrap my head around the long-term plan here. I like the effort but I feel like the execution has painted them into weird corners

Deck: What am I missing?  What does ‘mic drop’ mean?

Ben Clemens: as in, I’m dropping the microphone and walking off stage, it’s over

Guest: Should the Nats trade Lane Thomas? Do you think they will?

Ben Clemens: I think they will if they get the right offer

Ben Clemens: He’s been solid enough this year that I bet you an outfield-needy team like the Rangers is interested

Ben Clemens: And he almost certainly won’t be on the next great Nats team

Ben Clemens: but if they’re getting lowballed, I think it would be totally reasonable to just keep him, see how he does, and see if teams want him next year instead

Deuce: How does Preller still have a job?  He’s put that franchise in a bind for years to come.

Ben Clemens: Because he’s also revitalized it

Ben Clemens: But I have to imagine the leash is getting short

Anon21: Following on your comment re: Ohtani merch, I’ve always thought it’s weird that all merch revenue is divided evenly among all teams, so that having a superstar only affects your franchise value insofar as it affects your gate. Do you think letting teams capture all or some of that revenue stream would be a good idea?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think it would be a good idea for sure

Ben Clemens: I think there’s still enough ancillary stuff

Ben Clemens: that you’ll get a lot of juice

Ben Clemens: Like, it’s no accident that all the ads at Angels stadium are in Japanes

Ben Clemens: Japenese*

Travis: Do baseball players ever hold out? I was just looking back on Acuna’s contract and jeez, he can’t be happy being locked up for 5 more years for under a hundred million, can he?

Ben Clemens: They haven’t for a long time, and yeah, his contract is pretty low

Ben Clemens: on the other hand, he probably was liking the certainty when he missed a year

Appa Yip Yip: The interesting thing about Ohtani is that we already know money doesn’t motivate him, he gave up so much to come over early and enter arbitration. Like at what point does he look at these giant numbers and decide the difference between them is irrelevant and just picks a place based on chance to win and vibes.

Ben Clemens: I think that the money is going to be so huge that it’ll be vibes based for sure

Ben Clemens: I cannot even tell you how badly I want Ohtani to come to the Giants so I can see him in person all the time

Ben Clemens: I’m praying he’s a NorCal vibes kind of guy

Jeimer: Potential landing spots? Kinda bummed him and/or Lane Thomas didn’t get in the ASG because they’ve both been consistently good this year.

Ben Clemens: Jeimer is making me feel smart

Ben Clemens: I thought he was an amazing sign for the Nats

Ben Clemens: I dunno where he’ll end up, but how about the Yankees?

Ben Clemens: Segue:

Tel: At this point is IKF the Yankees best offensive option at 3rd base?  LeMahieu can’t hit his way out of a paper bag right now.  Although there might be some hope in Donaldson’s .083 BABIP and .352 xwOBA (which would be the highest on the active roster), a .152 BA and .232 OBP are hard to ignore.

Ben Clemens:

Ben Clemens: And that’s all I have to say about that

OriolesFan: If Pete Alonso doesn’t win tonight, is that the biggest upset in Home Run Derby history?

Ben Clemens: I don’t know the complete history of the derby but yes

Alek Manoah: Does one start VS DET give anyone confidence that I’m back?

Ben Clemens: I’m kinda bought in?

Ben Clemens: No walks!

Ben Clemens: That is his first game this year without a walk

Ben Clemens: When I looked into him this year, one of his biggest problems were that his mechanics were out of whack, so he was yanking a lot of sliders and missing by so much that they weren’t competitive

Ben Clemens: On the year as a whole, he’s thrown 11% of his pitches in the “waste” zone (no one swings against pitches there)

Ben Clemens: Last year, 8%

Ben Clemens: Against the Tigers, 8.8%

Ben Clemens: I’m not saying he’s necessarily fixed, but that’s what I’m watching more so than the actual results

Dan: I remember thinking DJ Lemehuie was overpaid but not by enough to bother the Yankees. Then I looked at his estimated value and he’s already earned his entire contract and it’s not like he aged much better than expected either. I wonder if there is more value in low end stars than commonly assumed.

Ben Clemens: I’m with you on this theory

Ben Clemens: Those high likelihood, mid-AAV contracts just get you a few years of all star level production fairly often

Ben Clemens: and then it’s all gravy

Ben Clemens: I think you need to think of how to handle the decline phase, and how to keep your team competitive over the years (like, don’t do the Padres type thing of stacking everything up now), but there’s real merit in those deals

JCCfromDC: Do you think that the Nats can get more than a comp pick for Candelario? I could totally see the Nats making him a QO. Doubt he accepts (at his age this is his best chance at a good FA deal) but if he does, he’s a great one year bridge to the House/Alu/Morales/Libscomb era.

Ben Clemens: Hmmmm…. so it’d be after comp round B

Ben Clemens: so like, early third round pick essentially

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think they could probably exceed that

Pat: Speaking of Jeimer..Detroit initially got him AND Paredes for a 2+ months of Al Avila & Justin Wilson..Then got Lange for 2 months of Nick Castellanos. Al Avila (the dad) may have not been a good GM, but, man, he had the Cubs number!!!

Ben Clemens: That trade was such a haul

Ben Clemens: As a card-carrying Paredes fan club member, I occasionally look back at it in wonder

Izzy: Would you rather have Bryce Harper or Bryan Reynolds? Money doesn’t count… Harper is the better player, but can’t play the field for awhile. Reynolds is the lesser hitter and fielder, but he can play the field.

Ben Clemens: Harp

Pirate Parrot: Paul Skenes follow the Mike Leake path and go college to the show?

Ben Clemens: I think he might!

Ben Clemens: That said, I don’t think he should

Sean: Speaking of lopsided trades, what the heck happened to Austin Nola?

Ben Clemens: There’s an article somewhere about how trading for ‘oh he does a lot of things fairly well’ catchers is a trap

Ben Clemens: Jacob Stallings isn’t lighting the world on fire either

Jax: Am I crazy to think the Braves have the best pitch for Ohtani? Looking at their payroll situation it seems like they could make it work financially.

Ben Clemens: I think it’s truly down to vibes

Ben Clemens: And hey, if all he wants to do is win rings, they might be the best option

Ben Clemens: good god, can you imagine that team with Ohtani?

HappyFunBall: The thing about the impending Ohtani contract: He could make $600M, and if you look at it as a $300M pitcher plus a $300M OF/DH it’s actually a bit of a…well not a bargain exactly, but a solid “B” set of expenditures for “A” production at two positions.

Sure, most of the league can’t afford it. But those than can aren’t going to look at it as putting all of their eggs into a single basket.

Ben Clemens: I’m with you

Positively Half St.: After drafting Crews and YoYo Morales yesterday, I am not sure that I can be impressed with anybody we get in trades. Do I lack imagination?

Ben Clemens: The Nats are not going to get anyone as good as Crews in their trades this year

Ben Clemens: But that doesn’t mean they won’t get someone who turns out great. What if you get the next Juan Soto or something? Prospects change skill level all the time

Matt VW: If you’re the Red Sox, do you add, stand pat, or maybe even sell? They’ve gained a lot of ground on the wild card, but the pitching’s in shambles. I’d have a hard time punting on even a puncher’s chance at October, but I’m not sure how real that chance even is.

Ben Clemens: I think they should probably bite their tongue and sell the guys who will be gone after this year

Ben Clemens: Not fun but it’s just REALLY hard to pass enough teams to make the playoffs for them

Duff: It seems like Francisco Alvarez has real power but xwOBA kinda hates him. What do you make of his early success?

Ben Clemens: I have him as a top 30 trade value in baseball, roughly

Ben Clemens: so uh…. buy buy buy

Ben Clemens: xwOBA might not like him, but that’s b/c of his unsustainably low line drive rate

Ben Clemens: he hits the snot out of the ball

Pat: As a Tiger fan, I think if they had Jeimer at 3B all year & Paredes at 2B all year instead of 2+ months of Maton, Schoop, Ibanez, etc (They have to have negative WAR from 3B & maybe 0-0.5 from 2B), they would probably be within 1-2 games of the AL Central lead.

Ben Clemens: omg that’s hard to wrap my head around

Ben Clemens: but I think you’re right?

bosoxforlife: Am I the crazy one when I am shocked to see it being suggested that Jeimer Candelario is worth a QO?

Ben Clemens: Haha *I* wouldn’t give him one

Ben Clemens: but he is clicking this year no doubt

Jack Glasscock’s Cup: What should Cleveland look to do to revitalize their offense over the next few years. The contact-first, slight build, slappy group looked like they were playing a different sport than the Braves during last week’s series. When did other teams’ players get so big?

Ben Clemens: I think they should be less dogmatic in general

Ben Clemens: They seem to have a lot of rules-based thinking going on in Cleveland. They draft in a particular way, they work their 40 man roster in a particular way, they hunt skillsets and so on

Ben Clemens: Look, it clearly works for them, I’m not saying scrap it

Ben Clemens: I’m just saying consider adding a little bit of variation or maybe rethinking some of the aims

v2micca: Elly De La Cruz didn’t just steal second, third and home.  He stole Perguero’s soul.

Ben Clemens: I have watched that play SO many times

Ben Clemens: the sensor tap too

late to the game: Yes to expansion. Now, with more playoff (wild card) teams and a more balanced schedule, how about moving back to four divisions again, so there’s none of this .500 team winning a division crap.

Ben Clemens: iiiiinteresting

Ben Clemens: I don’t think baseball would go for it. I think you might have a point, though

Appa Yip Yip: “everybody has a down year” is one of the most frustrating things about baseball, because on the one hand there’s a decent chance they rebound, on the other y tho

Ben Clemens: Yeah it’s really agonizing when it’s your team’s guy, too

Brian: To be fair, Elly really stole Brian Anderson’s soul

KC Pain: Drew Waters hot streak or actually, maybe, just possibly, things starting to click? Ive watched him slide down year after year from I believe a top 25 or so prospect at one point.  Still only 24, but would love your opinion as I never saw him play in minors and just have him here in KC.

Ben Clemens: So, I’m probably the wrong person to ask on this, because I never understood why he didn’t work out

Ben Clemens: But sure why not, let’s go

Adam: Is a backup infielder and a LH Reliever all the Braves need at the deadline?

Ben Clemens: I might be interested in a starter but more or less yeah

Ben Clemens: The starter would just be icing on the cake

Appa Yip Yip: If you are buying a single piece of fruit (or small amount of tiny fruit like grapes) to snack on, do you go high variance like a peach or a plum where if you hit it will be transcendent but if you miss it will be mealy and flavourless, or do you go low variance like a kiwi or a banana where you get what you expect to get but there’s no real chance of tasting heaven?

Ben Clemens: Oh man, this is an excellent question

Ben Clemens: I tend to go low variance for breakfast fruits and, well, I just think blackberries are the best fruit, so I go blackberries for snacking fruits

Ben Clemens: but if they aren’t available, I go low variance for choice

Dan: If a full time mlb DH showed up to a rec league and told everyone he was a shortstop would he be the best defender in the league?

Ben Clemens: Almost certainly

Ben Clemens: Mayyyyyyyybe if he’s lefty no?

Ben Clemens: But c’mon, his actions would just be so much cleaner than your rec league shortstop’s

Ben Clemens: He’s spent 20 years or whatever playing baseball full time

Ben Clemens: You think he doesn’t goof around throwing a ball?

Dan: Is everyone in baseball got hot for a month would the zero sum nature make the starts look the same or would pitchers and hitters literally all being at the top of their game at the same time produce distorted results?

Ben Clemens: Okay, I’m gonna make this the last question of the day because it’s fun, but I’m gonna think about it for a bit before answering

Ben Clemens: So, I think it would really flatter the stars

Ben Clemens: Particularly younger stars

Ben Clemens: My thinking is that they’re the ones with the truly transcendent skills

Ben Clemens: I really like hte question though, and I do think that for the most part the starts would look the same

Ben Clemens: BUt I think it would tilt towards starts

Ben Clemens: stars*

bosoxforlife: The peach question was great. My percentage of awful peaches was higher than the Braves winning percentage so i am now a grape and honeycrisp apple fan.

Ben Clemens: Yeah honestly I should have ended on that question, it’s a great one

Ben Clemens: Honeycrisps (and their various offshoots, I like pink ladies) are a huge advancement in apple technology

Ben Clemens: and i support that option as well

Ben Clemens: Thanks for chatting with me today, everyone, and enjoy the derby