Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 8/2/21

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat.

Ben Clemens: Friday was a madhouse, but I took it easy this weekend, got some IV fluids (not actually, though it might have been nice, I have a nasty cold), and I’m ready to go

Trevor Story: W.T. #@&$%! F?  Really?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I don’t think it’s inconceivable that the Rockies really didn’t like the returns enough to move Story

Ben Clemens: That’s fine if true

Ben Clemens: But if they were asking for a top 50 dude while not telling Story “hey look our ask is obscene you’re probably not leaving”

Ben Clemens: It doesn’t seem great

Ben Clemens: They really do seem to have a way of annoying their stars

Justin: What are Willy Adames’ chances for NL MVP?

ROGELIO: Brewers are an MLB best 42-20 since the Adames trade. Where does Willy wind up in the NL MVP vote?

Ben Clemens: I don’t see it, at least partially because both pitchers on his team probably have a better case

Ben Clemens: The NL crop is weak this year due to injury, but there are still plenty of players who were on their teams all year and have been great for contenders

barney gumble: hey ben. do you think rizzo goes back to the cubs at the end of the year? beloved as he is, I can’t imagine they’d want to pay him if they aren’t contending

Ben Clemens: I hadn’t really thought about it, but it’s not out of the question. Kind of depends what he’s getting offered. If he’s getting 3/30 offers from a bunch of teams, the Cubs could definitely do that — I think Hoyer should theoretically be targeting a return to contention fairly quickly

Ben Clemens: Speaking of which:

Jed Hoyer: What’s my timeline for contention? Do you think I’ll hit the mid-tier free agents this offseason? Let’s face it, the NL Central still probably isn’t going to be *that* great next year (I know the Brewers have those 3 pitchers but still that is a bad offense)

Ben Clemens: This is perhaps a cynical way to look at it, but if you’re Hoyer, why not skip 2022?

Ben Clemens: Ownership presumably doesn’t expect you to be good

Ben Clemens: Why put any pressure on yourself?

Ben Clemens: Just say it’s a 2023 target, that’s another year of job security!

Ben Clemens: They probably could bid on a ton of free agents and try to take a run at the Brewers/Cardinals/Reds group, but why not take a year off and do a Giants-y deal where you test a bunch of players out

Ben Clemens: If there aren’t people calling for pitchforks, it’s a no-brainer from a front office perspective

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Bb: I suggest putting a moratorium on Matt Damon chat comments.

MARK. WAHLBERG: MARK.WAHLBERG

MARK. WAHLBERG: TED > We Bought A Zoo

Ben Clemens: Had to pile them all together

Nate: Ben, if the White Sox were to try and flip Kimbrel this offseason, who the expected return be significantly lower?

Ben Clemens: Yes for sure

Ben Clemens: A closer isn’t something you go pay a premium for in the offseason when you don’t know if you’re going to be close, way ahead, way behind, etc

Ben Clemens: But when you’re in the White Sox position, which is that they’ve locked up the playoffs this year and the class of the AL has been worse than expected

Ben Clemens: There’s a TON of leverage to improving the team now

Ben Clemens: I’m not saying he’ll have no value in the offseason or anything, but there’s a reason that big reliever moves happen far more often at the deadline. They’re more valuable to a subset of teams then, so sellers wisely hold off until then

Guest: Had to show my vaccine card at a bar for the first time in SF. Pretty crazy that’s where we’re headed !

Ben Clemens: I haven’t had to yet, but I also haven’t been to a bar in a few weeks

Ben Clemens: I did have to download an app with proof of vaccine on it, though. Technology is neat

Guest: The single deadline rules. Do you think the slugfests in the NL West and AL East drove the prices this year around?

Ben Clemens: Huuuuuuuge fan of the single deadline

BringBackDeSpanielHair: Bro! I gotta drop Voit in a ten team redraft, right? Right? I seriously had Rizzo filling in for him and dropped him two days before the trade…

Ben Clemens: Yeah, think you have to drop Voit at this point. It’s rough, but Rizzo is the big part of a platoon and I think the Yankees going out and trading for him shows that they think he’s good

Andrew: Why were the Cubs unwilling to trade Bryant to the Mets, only to take a lesser haul for him from another team? If the Mets had waited out the clock could that have moved the needle?

Ben Clemens: You have to take the tick-tock that gets leaked to reporters with a grain of salt, because teams do it to make themselves look good

Ben Clemens: That said, I totally buy the idea that the Cubs had a big ask on Bryant

Ben Clemens: Unwilling to trade him, or they said Mauricio+ and the Mets read that as unwilling

Ben Clemens: So the Mets traded for Baez

Ben Clemens: But then the Cubs lost a bit of leverage, and just hit the bid

Ben Clemens: Think of it this way: if you know the Cubs will take either Bryant or Baez, and the return for Baez elsewhere is gonna be lower

Ben Clemens: Why not hold the Mets up for Baez only, then hit a lesser (but still higher than the return you’d get for Baez ex-Mets) bid elsewhere?

Ben Clemens: I actually think that was quite wise by the Cubs, and it happened to help the Giants out too

Northside: Are you predicting teams will offer 3/30 for Rizzo? That seems really low

Ben Clemens: I haven’t thought about it much. Definitely not a prediction

Chris: “oh god don’t trade with the rays” why is this a thing? I need an article!!

Ben Clemens: It’s definitely a worthy article topic for sometimes

Ben Clemens: sometime*

Ben Clemens: They have their fair share of wins, but their fair share of losses too

Ben Clemens: I do think they’re excellent at looking through fringe-y minor leaguers and finding guys who pop

Ben Clemens: And I think that’s where a lot of it comes from

Keston Hiura: Been terrible this year. What are the chances the Brewers give me another starting shot in 2022?

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll try

Ben Clemens: It’s time for an extended analogy here that won’t prove anything but is a story I like

Ben Clemens: In my previous job, I paid a lot of attention to Canadian economic data, and after one particularly bad release, RBC (who has the best research imo) put out a piece that said, in its entirety

Ben Clemens: “CAD Payrolls: An unmitigated disaster.”

Ben Clemens: That’s Hiura this year

Ben Clemens: I think you have to give him another shot, having seen what he did in 2019 and also in college

Ben Clemens: But I could see him not making it out of spring training with the job

Ben Clemens: He just looks SO lost

Appa Yip Yip: Who do you think Tyler Glasgow signs a two year deal with this offseason after the Rays non-tender him so they don’t have to pay him 7 million to rehab his TJ?

Ben Clemens: Oh gosh, this is eerie

Ben Clemens: At 10:45, I pinged Meg with basically the same question

Ben Clemens: (are the Rays really going to non-tender Glasnow??)

Ben Clemens: I don’t think they will! But ugh they might

Guest: Chances the Padres are a sleeper “winner” at the trade deadline?  The prospect costs for good talent went WAY up and suddenly Tatis may be done for the year.  So maybe they got lucky holding onto blue chip talent at a time when their title chances went down with Tatis’ shoulder?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I could see them as a winner relative to their other options

Ben Clemens: They’re still a loser overall, b/c they had a decent shot at the division and their rivals both got better

Ben Clemens: But relative to their other options, this might have been the best case

Ben Clemens: Sometimes things just suck and nothing you do was gonna fix them

Hank: Back to Voit… does he have any value if the Yankees are trying to deal him in the off season?

Ben Clemens: Less than you’d think, I bet. 1b-only righty making a decent amount of money, not really something teams prize these days

Ben Clemens: They’ll get something if they decide to move him, but I don’t think the bat is unquestionably elite to where you could get a big return

Derek: Acuna, deGrom, Tatis… ugh 🙁 Is the NL MVP gonna come down to Wheeler vs. Burnes??? Maybe pick a Dodger hitter out of a hat?

Ben Clemens: Yeah it’s so lame

Ben Clemens: The injuries are just BRUTAL

Petey: Is Ruiz a good enough offensive prospect for him to learn a secondary position for the days he doesn’t catch? First base, left field?  Not much blocking him there in Natstown.

Ben Clemens: I don’t really see it unless this power spike in 2021 is driven by real exit velo and barrel rate increases

Ben Clemens: I don’t have the raw numbers so it’s hard for me to say. Like, he’s crushing this year, and if he keeps THAT form up absolutely

Ben Clemens: But without that power, a babip-y guy is not really enough bat at a corner. What makes him so great is that he can catch

Dipoto: Thoughts on Toro?

Ben Clemens: I love Toro, perpetually a buyer

Ben Clemens: He will probably not keep hitting .500/.526/1.000 in Seattle but I think he’s awesome

Ben Clemens: If they had sequenced those trades differently this would all feel VERY different

Guest: Max Muncy has a 163 wrc+ & 4+ WAR. Isn’t he a pretty good MVP candidate ?

Ben Clemens: He’d be the Dodgers hitter, for me

Guest: Darvish struggling, Tatis out, Paddack and Gore not there (yet?), Snell showing why TB dealt him…I was surprised the Pads didn’t push harder. They’ll still almost certainly make the playoffs, but as a clear underdog to LA/SF, right? What’s the point of making all those moves if you end up the 3rd best team in your division?

Ben Clemens: Eh, I thikn that they can credibly say “We’ll still be great in 2022 and Fernando will be back, let’s not throw good money after bad”

Buster Posey: If I keep the pace, do I deserve some of those 1st place MVP votes?

Ben Clemens: Iiiiiinteresting

Ben Clemens: The injury hurts

Ben Clemens: Just from a playing time perspective.

Ben Clemens: But if Posey is healthy the rest of the year and keeps mashing and the Giants don’t turn into pumpkins, yes

Ben Clemens: NL MVP will be a good one this year

Cole: What would you have done if you were the Cardinals? Push in chips for a Gibson, Berrios, etc. type? Or the opposite and sold a couple pieces like Kim maybe even Gallegos with a plan to re-tool for 2022? Feels like doing nothing (ok fine they got JA Happ) at the deadline doesnt help the team now or in the future, frustrating.

Ben Clemens: I would have done the Kim/Gallegos move

Ben Clemens: Andrew Miller, too

Ben Clemens: He’s been AWESOME recently

Ben Clemens: I really hate what they did, which was pick no direction

Multiphasic: Does Zaidi believe the Giants starters can resurge their way through October, or does he hope they can?

Ben Clemens: Hope… but I think his belief in them has surely gone up quite a bit. I’m sure he’s realistic but hopeful

Ben Clemens: I mean, I’m not sure

Ben Clemens: But I’d guess!

Ben Clemens: The Dodgers going so nuts must be frustrating though

Appa Yip Yip: Who are your picks for AL wild card?

Ben Clemens: Red Sox and Yankees, b/c that would be really fun. But the jays are right in there too. I’m kinda down on the A’s, though I’m always too down on the A’s

Dodger Fan: This Astros-Dodgers series is going to be electric at the ravine.  I’ll get the popcorn!

Ben Clemens: Yeah it’s going to be a blast to watch

Cole: Back to that non-tender Glasnow question. Do you think its possible that the Rays actually field trade offers on him before the non-tender date this winter? I’d imagine some teams in contention would be interested in paying Glasnow the next 2 years even though he’ll be out until ’23.

Ben Clemens: Also surely possible, and if you believe the reports that are out today they were already trying to do it at the deadline

Ben Clemens: Not sure why they thought the cubs were that ‘team in contention’ but hey

DF: Maybe I’m nuts, but it wasn’t that long ago (okay, 4 years) that Votto hit .400 in the 2nd half. He stays hot and the Reds sneak past SD (entirely possible now given the Tatis injury, etc.), is he a dark horse MVP candidate? At a minimum, that kind of run on a playoff team probably cements his HOF candidacy, yes?

Ben Clemens: If he goes mega-ham and the Reds win the central, then yes

Ben Clemens: but he’ll also have the numbers that merit it even without the story at that poit

Ben Clemens: As to his MVP candidacy, I think this resurgence has actually already locked it up

Ben Clemens: Whoops, that should say Hall of Fame

Ben Clemens: I think that he was a borderline case if he completely tanked, but this late blast of great form seals it for me

Mark: Is Trea Turner not a legit NL MVP candidate?

Ben Clemens: If he’s great on the Dodgers, yes

Ben Clemens: But I think people will heavily discount his pre-trade numbers b/c they happened out of contention and then he got traded

BringBackDeSpanielHair: Oh, I lost Tatis again. It’s a shallow H2H points redraft. Do you like Brendan Rodgers or Wander Franco as a replacement?

Derek: Wander Franco has kind of been raking (and walking more) for the last three weeks or so, especially relative to his slow start. Not a question I guess, but it’s just wild how good he is at 20 years old.

Ben Clemens: So, I’d take Rodgers (just for the Coors effect) but yeah, Franco’s low-key hot streak has been fun to watch

YardGoat: Compared to other returns at the deadline, are you surprised by what the Pirates received for Frazier and Rodriguez? Also seems odd that they trended towards closer to the majors guys in their deals.

Ben Clemens: I had the Pirates as a loser in my first draft of deadline winners/losers, cut them for space

Ben Clemens: I totally agree, I don’t get their targets in trade

Ben Clemens: I’ll give them some rope b/c Cherington has a good track record of development, but I was confused for sure

Petey: If you were to disaggregate the Turner / Scherzer deal, who did the Nats get back because Turner was in it and who did they get for Max?  Impossible, but fun.

Ben Clemens: I think Turner got Gray+, and Scherzer got Ruiz-

Ben Clemens: Gray looks great

Ben Clemens: I think he’s gonna make Nats fans quite happy

Ben Clemens: They’ll get to see him in action today, too

Shake: Which current last place team do you see rebounding into contention in the next few years the fastest?

Ben Clemens: Gonna think on this one for a minute

Ben Clemens: Wow, the Twins are in last now!

Ben Clemens: So, them

Ben Clemens: But if I can’t pick them, I’ll actually say Marlins. I’m loving what they’re doing down there with developing pitching, and the offense…. yeah, the offense sucks

YardGoat: Thanks for answering my question Ben. Have a good rest of your Monday

Ben Clemens: You too, friend

Greg: Now that the deadline is done, what is stopping the Pirates from finally ending our misery and DFAing Polanco

Ben Clemens: Gregory Polanco’s career arc is sad to me

Ben Clemens: Insanely talented, solid out of the gate, and then just ruined by injury

Rafael Montero: Is he someone Strom can fix and turn into a late inning guy or was he a throw in so the Astros could get Graveman?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s a mixture of the two.

Ben Clemens: Late inning guy, or just competent reliever, is probably in grasp

Ben Clemens: But the Astros can’t KNOW if they’ll be able to get him back on form or not

Ben Clemens: It’s just a bet

Ben Clemens: A smart one, I think. Montero has been good at times

Multiphasic: Wait did I say Heaney headed east for peanuts?  He headed east for JUNK.

Ben Clemens: heyyyyyyy

Ben Clemens: Multiphasic will be here all week

Joseph: What do you think of the Marte/Luzardo swap?

Ben Clemens: I liked it more for the Marlins, but I think I am the low man on Marte, so take that into consideration

Ben Clemens: Big fan of Luzardo, and I think that the Marlins are going to get a lot of ‘they know how to fix pitching’ stories written when he actually just needed a breather and a new season

ROGELIO: Hey Jed Hoyer, the Brewers “bad offense” has scored 479 runs (13th) so far this year & posted 14.5 WAR (11th) compared to 451 runs (19th) & 9.6 WAR (21st) for what was a much more expensive Cubs position player group. Since the Adames trade that Brewers offense is 3rd in runs scored & 5th in WAR. Nice try though.

Ben Clemens: Haha yes, the Cubs offense has been terrible too

Ben Clemens: I still don’t think the Brewers offense is any great shakes, but boy, Chicago really fell apart this year

Multiphasic: The Giants weren’t even linked to a starter last week. I didn’t expect them to be in on Scherzer but seeing Heaney go east for peanuts…  I mean, I’ve been saying, “Alex Wood? Isn’t he on the DL?” every six days since mid-May.

Ben Clemens: (here’s the part I forgot to post earlier)

Ben Clemens: I like Heaney a lot, agree that the Giants could hvae been in on him. They seem happy with their pitching, though — they weren’t linked to anyone, like you said

Wireless Joe Jackson: RE:  Glasnow:  The Twins have almost no pitching now, and recently signed a 2 year deal with hurt Pineda.  How about them?

Ben Clemens: I could totally see that. I’m actually somewhat surprised that possibility didn’t come up in the Cruz trade, though I guess Glasnow’s health was less of a known thing then

Appa Yip Yip: The Twins are still like 2nd in mlb in home runs what a weird bad season for them.

Ben Clemens: One of the strangest seasons of recent memory. They just fell and kept falling

Jose Ramirez: Should the Guardians have considered trading me for premium prospects a la the Nats/Dodgers Scherzer/Turner trade?

Ben Clemens: It’s really not their style… they’ve been trading for quantity over quality in recent years, and not really giving up controllable hitters. I think that they’re also in a bit of a bind… if they go full sell-off, their fans are not going to be so anxious to pick up a new name and new-feeling bad team

Ben Clemens: It’s like how teams try to compete when they open a new stadium, kind of

Ben Clemens: If you’re the low-budget team, being the bad low-budget team who just changed names doesn’t sound great

Todd: Looking to ‘22 for LAA: seems like they could use a strong veteran righty DH/maybe 1B. Would an Albert Pujols make sense at 3 yrs, $75m?

Ben Clemens: Maybe 2/50

Ben Clemens: and a personal services contract

Todd: There’s no such team as the guardians as of right now ***ducks***

Ben Clemens: Unlike them, we don’t have a bunch of merchandise in the warehouse to sell

Nick: After ignoring SS during the off-season, the Reds stayed true to themselves and ignored SS during the trade deadline.  Do you they do the same thing this next off-season?  Who plays SS for them in 2022?

Ben Clemens: Barrero!

Ben Clemens: I mean, I hope, at least

Erik: Baez, Bryant, and Rizzo have gotten some press for each homering in his first start with his new team, but don’t forget that Joc Pederson also homered in his first start with Atlanta.  The pressure is now on Kyle Schwarber to maintain form in his first start with Boston–think he can do so?  (Incidentally, Jake Marisnick apparently missed the memo distributed to all other Cubs position players traded at the deadline.)

Ben Clemens: I think it was starters only

Todd: Did last years lack of a MILB season create more of a 40-man crunch, rendering the R5 Draft more consequential this year (ie more talent)?

Ben Clemens: Yes, for sure

John: I understand why people think the Rockies *should* have traded Trevor Story and Jon Gray.  But I don’t understand why people either inside or outside the industry thought the Rockies *would* trade either one.  The organization’s track record is well established and well known to all.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I thought about leaving them out of the article for that reason

Ben Clemens: But just because you expect a train wreck doesn’t mean the train didn’t wreck

Tacoby Bellsbury: If the Rockies were a board game, what board game would they be and why?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna go with Robo Rally

Ben Clemens: You have to race robots using programs that you input via cards you draft

Ben Clemens: But you can never get the right cards at hte right time, so you have to take suboptimal moves

Ben Clemens: Your robot ends up doing stupid stuff, and you resign yourself to it before starting

Steve Biko: Have you ever tested Out of the Park Baseball? Thoughts?

Ben Clemens: I love OOTP

Ben Clemens: Can’t recommend it highly enough

Ben Clemens: The historical simulations are great, the building a dynasty and crushing the league in the future is great, and Perfect Team has been an INSANE time sink for me this year b/c it’s so fun

Logan: Where do you think Kumar Rocker plays in 2022?  Any chance he joins Carter Stewart (a fellow Boras client) in Japan?

Ben Clemens: I haven’t given it a ton of thought. I guess so?

Ben Clemens: Gonna feel weird

Morbo: Was John Mozeliak hit on the head and now thinks that it is 2015?

Ben Clemens: Maybe he was upset about the Cubs’ lead in utter lack of velocity among starters

Adam: More likely: Braves make the playoffs, or Red Sox miss?

Ben Clemens: I think Red Sox miss. I just don’t think the Braves have enough in the tank

Ben Clemens: Gonna do a quick lightning round of questions before calling it a day early today. Busy day of errands and writing and dog walks, as I prepare for vacation startin tomorrow afternoon

Appa Yip Yip: If you were offered the GM position of the Rockies with a mandate to please fix it would you take the job?

Ben Clemens: Not unconditionally, but almost certainly yeah. GM of a team is such a cool job

Mitch: There’s some really interesting free agent pitchers this year who have broken out and are having career seasons: Rodon, Gausman, Ray. Who gets the most $? Who would you bid the highest for?

Ben Clemens: I’d bid highest for Ray, I think. I think Gausman will get the most

Malgar: Who relocates first, the A’s or the Rays?

Ben Clemens: Rays

Adam: Are we at the point yet where we can start looking at remaining strength of schedule to find anything meaningful?  Or is it too soon?

Ben Clemens: Give it a week

ROGELIO: Speaking of Reds & SS, if they dealt for Adames instead of starting the year with Suarez at SS are they in 1st in the Central right now?

Ben Clemens: Too much of a sliding doors scenario. I think India would have started in the minors and maybe stayed there. Really hard to say

Scranton: Is it possible that since Cherrington has taken on a bunch of lower-level guys in other trades, some of who have to be 40-manned or risked in the Rule 5, that he aimed for guys who are perhaps less interesting but still worth having, because they are further along in development and can actually contribute to the big league roster while on the 40 man?

Ben Clemens: Could def see that

Rizzo: Would you accept Mcclanahan for me (rizzo) in a keeper league?

Ben Clemens: Depends on if you’re competing this year

Bear: When win Kibert Ruiz be in the MLB?

Ben Clemens: Later in 2021

Babe Ruth: More likely to return to some sort of norm, Yelich or Bellinger?

Ben Clemens: Gimme Bellinger and I’ll hope he was just more injured than he let on

Desmond: kris Bryant seems thrilled to be a giant do you think there’s a good chance that’s more then a rental ? Giants an cardinals seem like two teams that are able to convince Guayaquil

Ben Clemens: I could see it. West Coast (ish) kid and good fanbase/city if the money’s right (I’m biased here, love SF)

Adam: Is Gausman broken?  Tired?  Just a blip?

Ben Clemens: Tired

Adam: Buxton traded this offseason, next summer, extended, or walks as a FA in 22?

Ben Clemens: Walks as FA

Morbo: To follow up my previous question: I’m legitimately mad about the trades he made. Doing nothing would have been better. Do I think John Gant is a good pitcher this year? No. Is he worse that J.A Happ or Lester? Also no. Should he have tried to trade Tommy Edman and Paul DeJong for a halfway decent prospect and a few lottery tickets. Yes, Edmundo Sosa is as good or better than either. Rant over thanks for listening

Ben Clemens: I think you underrate DeJong but yeah generally agree

Henry: Ben, do you think xERA the best evaluation of a pitcher?

Ben Clemens: I haven’t dug enough into it, I tend to care more about component stats

Ben Clemens: On that note, have a great week everyone

Ben Clemens: And thank you for chatting today, tons of great questions and I’m sorry I couldn’t get to all of them

Ben Clemens: There are still about 100 in the queue, you just have too many interesting things to ask and say!