Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 8/2/21
2:02 |
: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat.
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2:02 |
: Friday was a madhouse, but I took it easy this weekend, got some IV fluids (not actually, though it might have been nice, I have a nasty cold), and I’m ready to go
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2:02 |
: W.T. #@&$%! F? Really?
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2:03 |
: Yeah, I don’t think it’s inconceivable that the Rockies really didn’t like the returns enough to move Story
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2:03 |
: That’s fine if true
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2:03 |
: But if they were asking for a top 50 dude while not telling Story “hey look our ask is obscene you’re probably not leaving”
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2:04 |
: It doesn’t seem great
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2:04 |
: They really do seem to have a way of annoying their stars
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2:04 |
: What are Willy Adames’ chances for NL MVP?
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2:04 |
: Brewers are an MLB best 42-20 since the Adames trade. Where does Willy wind up in the NL MVP vote?
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2:04 |
: I don’t see it, at least partially because both pitchers on his team probably have a better case
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2:05 |
: The NL crop is weak this year due to injury, but there are still plenty of players who were on their teams all year and have been great for contenders
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2:05 |
: hey ben. do you think rizzo goes back to the cubs at the end of the year? beloved as he is, I can’t imagine they’d want to pay him if they aren’t contending
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2:06 |
: I hadn’t really thought about it, but it’s not out of the question. Kind of depends what he’s getting offered. If he’s getting 3/30 offers from a bunch of teams, the Cubs could definitely do that — I think Hoyer should theoretically be targeting a return to contention fairly quickly
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2:06 |
: Speaking of which:
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2:06 |
: What’s my timeline for contention? Do you think I’ll hit the mid-tier free agents this offseason? Let’s face it, the NL Central still probably isn’t going to be *that* great next year (I know the Brewers have those 3 pitchers but still that is a bad offense)
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2:07 |
: This is perhaps a cynical way to look at it, but if you’re Hoyer, why not skip 2022?
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2:07 |
: Ownership presumably doesn’t expect you to be good
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2:07 |
: Why put any pressure on yourself?
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2:07 |
: Just say it’s a 2023 target, that’s another year of job security!
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2:08 |
: They probably could bid on a ton of free agents and try to take a run at the Brewers/Cardinals/Reds group, but why not take a year off and do a Giants-y deal where you test a bunch of players out
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2:08 |
: If there aren’t people calling for pitchforks, it’s a no-brainer from a front office perspective
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2:08 |
: MATT. DAMON.
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2:08 |
: I suggest putting a moratorium on Matt Damon chat comments.
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2:08 |
: MARK.WAHLBERG
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2:08 |
: TED > We Bought A Zoo
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2:09 |
: Had to pile them all together
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2:09 |
: Ben, if the White Sox were to try and flip Kimbrel this offseason, who the expected return be significantly lower?
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2:09 |
: Yes for sure
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2:10 |
: A closer isn’t something you go pay a premium for in the offseason when you don’t know if you’re going to be close, way ahead, way behind, etc
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2:10 |
: But when you’re in the White Sox position, which is that they’ve locked up the playoffs this year and the class of the AL has been worse than expected
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2:10 |
: There’s a TON of leverage to improving the team now
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2:11 |
: I’m not saying he’ll have no value in the offseason or anything, but there’s a reason that big reliever moves happen far more often at the deadline. They’re more valuable to a subset of teams then, so sellers wisely hold off until then
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2:11 |
: Had to show my vaccine card at a bar for the first time in SF. Pretty crazy that’s where we’re headed !
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2:11 |
: I haven’t had to yet, but I also haven’t been to a bar in a few weeks
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2:11 |
: I did have to download an app with proof of vaccine on it, though. Technology is neat
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2:11 |
: The single deadline rules. Do you think the slugfests in the NL West and AL East drove the prices this year around?
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2:12 |
: Huuuuuuuge fan of the single deadline
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2:12 |
: Bro! I gotta drop Voit in a ten team redraft, right? Right? I seriously had Rizzo filling in for him and dropped him two days before the trade…
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2:13 |
: Yeah, think you have to drop Voit at this point. It’s rough, but Rizzo is the big part of a platoon and I think the Yankees going out and trading for him shows that they think he’s good
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2:13 |
: Why were the Cubs unwilling to trade Bryant to the Mets, only to take a lesser haul for him from another team? If the Mets had waited out the clock could that have moved the needle?
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2:14 |
: You have to take the tick-tock that gets leaked to reporters with a grain of salt, because teams do it to make themselves look good
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2:15 |
: That said, I totally buy the idea that the Cubs had a big ask on Bryant
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2:16 |
: Unwilling to trade him, or they said Mauricio+ and the Mets read that as unwilling
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2:16 |
: So the Mets traded for Baez
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2:16 |
: But then the Cubs lost a bit of leverage, and just hit the bid
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2:16 |
: Think of it this way: if you know the Cubs will take either Bryant or Baez, and the return for Baez elsewhere is gonna be lower
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2:17 |
: Why not hold the Mets up for Baez only, then hit a lesser (but still higher than the return you’d get for Baez ex-Mets) bid elsewhere?
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2:17 |
: I actually think that was quite wise by the Cubs, and it happened to help the Giants out too
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2:17 |
: Are you predicting teams will offer 3/30 for Rizzo? That seems really low
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2:17 |
: I haven’t thought about it much. Definitely not a prediction
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2:18 |
: “oh god don’t trade with the rays” why is this a thing? I need an article!!
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2:18 |
: It’s definitely a worthy article topic for sometimes
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2:18 |
: sometime*
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2:18 |
: They have their fair share of wins, but their fair share of losses too
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2:18 |
: I do think they’re excellent at looking through fringe-y minor leaguers and finding guys who pop
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2:19 |
: And I think that’s where a lot of it comes from
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2:19 |
: Been terrible this year. What are the chances the Brewers give me another starting shot in 2022?
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2:19 |
: I think they’ll try
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2:20 |
: It’s time for an extended analogy here that won’t prove anything but is a story I like
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2:20 |
: In my previous job, I paid a lot of attention to Canadian economic data, and after one particularly bad release, RBC (who has the best research imo) put out a piece that said, in its entirety
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2:21 |
: “CAD Payrolls: An unmitigated disaster.”
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2:21 |
: That’s Hiura this year
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2:21 |
: I think you have to give him another shot, having seen what he did in 2019 and also in college
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2:21 |
: But I could see him not making it out of spring training with the job
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2:21 |
: He just looks SO lost
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2:22 |
: Who do you think Tyler Glasgow signs a two year deal with this offseason after the Rays non-tender him so they don’t have to pay him 7 million to rehab his TJ?
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2:22 |
: Oh gosh, this is eerie
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2:22 |
: At 10:45, I pinged Meg with basically the same question
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2:22 |
: (are the Rays really going to non-tender Glasnow??)
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2:22 |
: I don’t think they will! But ugh they might
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2:22 |
Chances the Padres are a sleeper “winner” at the trade deadline? The prospect costs for good talent went WAY up and suddenly Tatis may be done for the year. So maybe they got lucky holding onto blue chip talent at a time when their title chances went down with Tatis’ shoulder?
: |
2:23 |
: Yeah, I could see them as a winner relative to their other options
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2:24 |
: They’re still a loser overall, b/c they had a decent shot at the division and their rivals both got better
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2:24 |
: But relative to their other options, this might have been the best case
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2:24 |
: Sometimes things just suck and nothing you do was gonna fix them
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2:24 |
: Back to Voit… does he have any value if the Yankees are trying to deal him in the off season?
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2:25 |
: Less than you’d think, I bet. 1b-only righty making a decent amount of money, not really something teams prize these days
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2:25 |
: They’ll get something if they decide to move him, but I don’t think the bat is unquestionably elite to where you could get a big return
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2:26 |
: Acuna, deGrom, Tatis… ugh 🙁 Is the NL MVP gonna come down to Wheeler vs. Burnes??? Maybe pick a Dodger hitter out of a hat?
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2:26 |
: Yeah it’s so lame
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2:26 |
: The injuries are just BRUTAL
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2:26 |
: Is Ruiz a good enough offensive prospect for him to learn a secondary position for the days he doesn’t catch? First base, left field? Not much blocking him there in Natstown.
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2:27 |
: I don’t really see it unless this power spike in 2021 is driven by real exit velo and barrel rate increases
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2:28 |
: I don’t have the raw numbers so it’s hard for me to say. Like, he’s crushing this year, and if he keeps THAT form up absolutely
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2:28 |
: But without that power, a babip-y guy is not really enough bat at a corner. What makes him so great is that he can catch
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2:28 |
: Thoughts on Toro?
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2:29 |
: I love Toro, perpetually a buyer
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2:29 |
: He will probably not keep hitting .500/.526/1.000 in Seattle but I think he’s awesome
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2:29 |
: If they had sequenced those trades differently this would all feel VERY different
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2:29 |
: Max Muncy has a 163 wrc+ & 4+ WAR. Isn’t he a pretty good MVP candidate ?
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2:30 |
: He’d be the Dodgers hitter, for me
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2:30 |
: Darvish struggling, Tatis out, Paddack and Gore not there (yet?), Snell showing why TB dealt him…I was surprised the Pads didn’t push harder. They’ll still almost certainly make the playoffs, but as a clear underdog to LA/SF, right? What’s the point of making all those moves if you end up the 3rd best team in your division?
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2:31 |
: Eh, I thikn that they can credibly say “We’ll still be great in 2022 and Fernando will be back, let’s not throw good money after bad”
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2:32 |
: If I keep the pace, do I deserve some of those 1st place MVP votes?
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2:32 |
: Iiiiiinteresting
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2:32 |
: The injury hurts
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2:32 |
: Just from a playing time perspective.
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2:33 |
: But if Posey is healthy the rest of the year and keeps mashing and the Giants don’t turn into pumpkins, yes
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2:33 |
: NL MVP will be a good one this year
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2:33 |
: What would you have done if you were the Cardinals? Push in chips for a Gibson, Berrios, etc. type? Or the opposite and sold a couple pieces like Kim maybe even Gallegos with a plan to re-tool for 2022? Feels like doing nothing (ok fine they got JA Happ) at the deadline doesnt help the team now or in the future, frustrating.
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2:33 |
: I would have done the Kim/Gallegos move
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2:33 |
: Andrew Miller, too
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2:34 |
: He’s been AWESOME recently
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2:34 |
: I really hate what they did, which was pick no direction
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2:34 |
believe the Giants starters can resurge their way through October, or does he hope they can?
: Does Zaidi |
2:36 |
: Hope… but I think his belief in them has surely gone up quite a bit. I’m sure he’s realistic but hopeful
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2:36 |
: I mean, I’m not sure
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2:36 |
: But I’d guess!
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2:36 |
: The Dodgers going so nuts must be frustrating though
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2:36 |
: Who are your picks for AL wild card?
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2:37 |
: Red Sox and Yankees, b/c that would be really fun. But the jays are right in there too. I’m kinda down on the A’s, though I’m always too down on the A’s
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2:37 |
electric at the ravine. I’ll get the popcorn!
: This Astros-Dodgers series is going to be |
2:37 |
: Yeah it’s going to be a blast to watch
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2:37 |
: Back to that non-tender Glasnow question. Do you think its possible that the Rays actually field trade offers on him before the non-tender date this winter? I’d imagine some teams in contention would be interested in paying Glasnow the next 2 years even though he’ll be out until ’23.
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2:38 |
: Also surely possible, and if you believe the reports that are out today they were already trying to do it at the deadline
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2:38 |
: Not sure why they thought the cubs were that ‘team in contention’ but hey
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2:38 |
: Maybe I’m nuts, but it wasn’t that long ago (okay, 4 years) that Votto hit .400 in the 2nd half. He stays hot and the Reds sneak past SD (entirely possible now given the Tatis injury, etc.), is he a dark horse MVP candidate? At a minimum, that kind of run on a playoff team probably cements his HOF candidacy, yes?
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2:39 |
: If he goes mega-ham and the Reds win the central, then yes
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2:39 |
: but he’ll also have the numbers that merit it even without the story at that poit
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2:39 |
: As to his MVP candidacy, I think this resurgence has actually already locked it up
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2:39 |
: Whoops, that should say Hall of Fame
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2:40 |
: I think that he was a borderline case if he completely tanked, but this late blast of great form seals it for me
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2:40 |
: Is Trea Turner not a legit NL MVP candidate?
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2:40 |
: If he’s great on the Dodgers, yes
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2:40 |
: But I think people will heavily discount his pre-trade numbers b/c they happened out of contention and then he got traded
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2:40 |
: Oh, I lost Tatis again. It’s a shallow H2H points redraft. Do you like Brendan Rodgers or Wander Franco as a replacement?
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2:40 |
: Wander Franco has kind of been raking (and walking more) for the last three weeks or so, especially relative to his slow start. Not a question I guess, but it’s just wild how good he is at 20 years old.
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2:41 |
: So, I’d take Rodgers (just for the Coors effect) but yeah, Franco’s low-key hot streak has been fun to watch
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2:41 |
: Compared to other returns at the deadline, are you surprised by what the Pirates received for Frazier and Rodriguez? Also seems odd that they trended towards closer to the majors guys in their deals.
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2:41 |
: I had the Pirates as a loser in my first draft of deadline winners/losers, cut them for space
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2:42 |
: I totally agree, I don’t get their targets in trade
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2:42 |
: I’ll give them some rope b/c Cherington has a good track record of development, but I was confused for sure
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2:43 |
: If you were to disaggregate the Turner / Scherzer deal, who did the Nats get back because Turner was in it and who did they get for Max? Impossible, but fun.
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2:43 |
: I think Turner got Gray+, and Scherzer got Ruiz-
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2:43 |
: Gray looks great
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2:43 |
: I think he’s gonna make Nats fans quite happy
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2:44 |
: They’ll get to see him in action today, too
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2:44 |
: Which current last place team do you see rebounding into contention in the next few years the fastest?
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2:44 |
: Gonna think on this one for a minute
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2:44 |
: Wow, the Twins are in last now!
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2:44 |
: So, them
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2:45 |
: But if I can’t pick them, I’ll actually say Marlins. I’m loving what they’re doing down there with developing pitching, and the offense…. yeah, the offense sucks
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2:45 |
: Thanks for answering my question Ben. Have a good rest of your Monday
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2:45 |
: You too, friend
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2:45 |
: Now that the deadline is done, what is stopping the Pirates from finally ending our misery and DFAing Polanco
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2:45 |
: Gregory Polanco’s career arc is sad to me
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2:46 |
: Insanely talented, solid out of the gate, and then just ruined by injury
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2:46 |
: Is he someone Strom can fix and turn into a late inning guy or was he a throw in so the Astros could get Graveman?
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2:47 |
: I think it’s a mixture of the two.
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2:48 |
: Late inning guy, or just competent reliever, is probably in grasp
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2:48 |
: But the Astros can’t KNOW if they’ll be able to get him back on form or not
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2:48 |
: It’s just a bet
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2:48 |
: A smart one, I think. Montero has been good at times
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2:49 |
: Wait did I say Heaney headed east for peanuts? He headed east for JUNK.
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2:49 |
: heyyyyyyy
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2:49 |
: Multiphasic will be here all week
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2:49 |
: What do you think of the Marte/Luzardo swap?
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2:49 |
: I liked it more for the Marlins, but I think I am the low man on Marte, so take that into consideration
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2:50 |
: Big fan of Luzardo, and I think that the Marlins are going to get a lot of ‘they know how to fix pitching’ stories written when he actually just needed a breather and a new season
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2:50 |
: Hey Jed Hoyer, the Brewers “bad offense” has scored 479 runs (13th) so far this year & posted 14.5 WAR (11th) compared to 451 runs (19th) & 9.6 WAR (21st) for what was a much more expensive Cubs position player group. Since the Adames trade that Brewers offense is 3rd in runs scored & 5th in WAR. Nice try though.
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2:50 |
: Haha yes, the Cubs offense has been terrible too
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2:50 |
: I still don’t think the Brewers offense is any great shakes, but boy, Chicago really fell apart this year
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2:51 |
: The Giants weren’t even linked to a starter last week. I didn’t expect them to be in on Scherzer but seeing Heaney go east for peanuts… I mean, I’ve been saying, “Alex Wood? Isn’t he on the DL?” every six days since mid-May.
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2:51 |
: (here’s the part I forgot to post earlier)
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2:51 |
: I like Heaney a lot, agree that the Giants could hvae been in on him. They seem happy with their pitching, though — they weren’t linked to anyone, like you said
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2:51 |
: RE: Glasnow: The Twins have almost no pitching now, and recently signed a 2 year deal with hurt Pineda. How about them?
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2:52 |
: I could totally see that. I’m actually somewhat surprised that possibility didn’t come up in the Cruz trade, though I guess Glasnow’s health was less of a known thing then
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2:52 |
: The Twins are still like 2nd in mlb in home runs what a weird bad season for them.
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2:53 |
: One of the strangest seasons of recent memory. They just fell and kept falling
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2:53 |
: Should the Guardians have considered trading me for premium prospects a la the Nats/Dodgers Scherzer/Turner trade?
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2:55 |
: It’s really not their style… they’ve been trading for quantity over quality in recent years, and not really giving up controllable hitters. I think that they’re also in a bit of a bind… if they go full sell-off, their fans are not going to be so anxious to pick up a new name and new-feeling bad team
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2:55 |
: It’s like how teams try to compete when they open a new stadium, kind of
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2:55 |
: If you’re the low-budget team, being the bad low-budget team who just changed names doesn’t sound great
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2:55 |
: Looking to ‘22 for LAA: seems like they could use a strong veteran righty DH/maybe 1B. Would an Albert Pujols make sense at 3 yrs, $75m?
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2:56 |
: Maybe 2/50
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2:56 |
: and a personal services contract
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2:56 |
: There’s no such team as the guardians as of right now ***ducks***
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2:56 |
: Unlike them, we don’t have a bunch of merchandise in the warehouse to sell
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2:57 |
: After ignoring SS during the off-season, the Reds stayed true to themselves and ignored SS during the trade deadline. Do you they do the same thing this next off-season? Who plays SS for them in 2022?
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2:57 |
: Barrero!
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2:57 |
: I mean, I hope, at least
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2:57 |
: Baez, Bryant, and Rizzo have gotten some press for each homering in his first start with his new team, but don’t forget that Joc Pederson also homered in his first start with Atlanta. The pressure is now on Kyle Schwarber to maintain form in his first start with Boston–think he can do so? (Incidentally, Jake Marisnick apparently missed the memo distributed to all other Cubs position players traded at the deadline.)
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2:57 |
: I think it was starters only
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2:57 |
: Did last years lack of a MILB season create more of a 40-man crunch, rendering the R5 Draft more consequential this year (ie more talent)?
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2:58 |
: Yes, for sure
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2:58 |
: I understand why people think the Rockies *should* have traded Trevor Story and Jon Gray. But I don’t understand why people either inside or outside the industry thought the Rockies *would* trade either one. The organization’s track record is well established and well known to all.
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2:58 |
: Yeah, I thought about leaving them out of the article for that reason
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2:59 |
: But just because you expect a train wreck doesn’t mean the train didn’t wreck
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2:59 |
: If the Rockies were a board game, what board game would they be and why?
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3:00 |
: I’m gonna go with Robo Rally
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3:00 |
: You have to race robots using programs that you input via cards you draft
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3:00 |
: But you can never get the right cards at hte right time, so you have to take suboptimal moves
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3:00 |
: Your robot ends up doing stupid stuff, and you resign yourself to it before starting
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3:00 |
: Have you ever tested Out of the Park Baseball? Thoughts?
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3:00 |
: I love OOTP
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3:00 |
: Can’t recommend it highly enough
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3:01 |
: The historical simulations are great, the building a dynasty and crushing the league in the future is great, and Perfect Team has been an INSANE time sink for me this year b/c it’s so fun
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3:01 |
: Where do you think Kumar Rocker plays in 2022? Any chance he joins Carter Stewart (a fellow Boras client) in Japan?
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3:01 |
: I haven’t given it a ton of thought. I guess so?
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3:01 |
: Gonna feel weird
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3:02 |
: Was John Mozeliak hit on the head and now thinks that it is 2015?
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3:02 |
: Maybe he was upset about the Cubs’ lead in utter lack of velocity among starters
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3:02 |
: More likely: Braves make the playoffs, or Red Sox miss?
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3:03 |
: I think Red Sox miss. I just don’t think the Braves have enough in the tank
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3:03 |
: Gonna do a quick lightning round of questions before calling it a day early today. Busy day of errands and writing and dog walks, as I prepare for vacation startin tomorrow afternoon
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3:03 |
: If you were offered the GM position of the Rockies with a mandate to please fix it would you take the job?
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3:04 |
: Not unconditionally, but almost certainly yeah. GM of a team is such a cool job
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3:04 |
: There’s some really interesting free agent pitchers this year who have broken out and are having career seasons: Rodon, Gausman, Ray. Who gets the most $? Who would you bid the highest for?
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3:04 |
: I’d bid highest for Ray, I think. I think Gausman will get the most
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3:04 |
: Who relocates first, the A’s or the Rays?
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3:04 |
: Rays
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3:04 |
: Are we at the point yet where we can start looking at remaining strength of schedule to find anything meaningful? Or is it too soon?
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3:04 |
: Give it a week
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3:04 |
: Speaking of Reds & SS, if they dealt for Adames instead of starting the year with Suarez at SS are they in 1st in the Central right now?
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3:04 |
: Too much of a sliding doors scenario. I think India would have started in the minors and maybe stayed there. Really hard to say
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3:05 |
: Is it possible that since Cherrington has taken on a bunch of lower-level guys in other trades, some of who have to be 40-manned or risked in the Rule 5, that he aimed for guys who are perhaps less interesting but still worth having, because they are further along in development and can actually contribute to the big league roster while on the 40 man?
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3:05 |
: Could def see that
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3:05 |
: Would you accept Mcclanahan for me (rizzo) in a keeper league?
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3:05 |
: Depends on if you’re competing this year
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3:05 |
: When win Kibert Ruiz be in the MLB?
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3:05 |
: Later in 2021
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3:05 |
: More likely to return to some sort of norm, Yelich or Bellinger?
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3:05 |
: Gimme Bellinger and I’ll hope he was just more injured than he let on
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3:06 |
: kris Bryant seems thrilled to be a giant do you think there’s a good chance that’s more then a rental ? Giants an cardinals seem like two teams that are able to convince Guayaquil
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3:06 |
: I could see it. West Coast (ish) kid and good fanbase/city if the money’s right (I’m biased here, love SF)
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3:06 |
: Is Gausman broken? Tired? Just a blip?
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3:06 |
: Tired
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3:06 |
: Buxton traded this offseason, next summer, extended, or walks as a FA in 22?
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3:06 |
: Walks as FA
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3:06 |
: To follow up my previous question: I’m legitimately mad about the trades he made. Doing nothing would have been better. Do I think John Gant is a good pitcher this year? No. Is he worse that J.A Happ or Lester? Also no. Should he have tried to trade Tommy Edman and Paul DeJong for a halfway decent prospect and a few lottery tickets. Yes, Edmundo Sosa is as good or better than either. Rant over thanks for listening
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3:07 |
: I think you underrate DeJong but yeah generally agree
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3:07 |
: Ben, do you think xERA the best evaluation of a pitcher?
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3:07 |
: I haven’t dug enough into it, I tend to care more about component stats
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3:07 |
: On that note, have a great week everyone
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3:07 |
: And thank you for chatting today, tons of great questions and I’m sorry I couldn’t get to all of them
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3:07 |
: There are still about 100 in the queue, you just have too many interesting things to ask and say!
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Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @benclemens.