The ZiPS Trade Deadline Reshuffle
It’s sad to say farewell to what I think was the best trade deadline in the years I’ve been covering baseball, but at least there’s still an autopsy to do! With the league moving to a single trade deadline after eliminating the August waiver-trade shenanigans, this was the last, best opportunity for teams to make changes as we head into the season’s closing chapters.
So who won, who lost, and who finished in the murky middle? To aid us in answering those questions, I ran two sets of ZiPS projections. First, I ran the projections as of Monday morning with each team’s post-deadline roster. Then I ran ZiPS again with today’s standings and current injuries, but having undone all the additions over the two weeks before the trade deadline (including differences in WAR between players). I then compared the pre- and post-deadline projections. Some differences surprised me. Others … did not.
| Team | Div% Before | Div% After | Chg | Playoff% Before | Playoff% After | Chg | WS Win% Before | WS Win% | Chg% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 5.8% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 36.4% | 45.1% | 8.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Atlanta Braves | 10.9% | 16.8% | 5.9% | 11.4% | 18.1% | 6.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 86.5% | 89.7% | 3.2% | 91.8% | 93.8% | 2.0% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 0.3% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 24.3% | 25.3% | 1.0% | 25.4% | 27.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 4.8% | 5.7% | 0.9% | 32.2% | 33.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| San Francisco Giants | 43.1% | 45.2% | 2.0% | 95.9% | 97.4% | 1.5% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 0.4% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 48.7% | 49.2% | 0.5% | 97.3% | 98.0% | 0.7% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 0.1% |
| Chicago White Sox | 99.9% | 100.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% | 100.0% | 0.1% | 13.9% | 14.0% | 0.2% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colorado Rockies | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Detroit Tigers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kansas City Royals | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Minnesota Twins | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas Rangers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miami Marlins | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chicago Cubs | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | -0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cleveland Indians | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Seattle Mariners | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | -0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Houston Astros | 87.9% | 87.2% | -0.7% | 97.2% | 96.6% | -0.6% | 14.8% | 14.6% | -0.3% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1.2% | 0.8% | -0.4% | 4.3% | 3.4% | -0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 63.5% | 60.8% | -2.7% | 92.7% | 91.1% | -1.6% | 11.5% | 11.2% | -0.4% |
| San Diego Padres | 8.2% | 5.7% | -2.5% | 75.5% | 73.8% | -1.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | -0.4% |
| Washington Nationals | 1.7% | 0.0% | -1.7% | 1.7% | 0.0% | -1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | 2.3% | 0.5% | -1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
| Oakland A’s | 12.0% | 12.8% | 0.8% | 60.7% | 58.5% | -2.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Boston Red Sox | 25.9% | 24.7% | -1.2% | 77.1% | 73.9% | -3.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | -0.4% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 12.2% | 9.5% | -2.7% | 32.4% | 28.8% | -3.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | -0.4% |
| New York Mets | 63.1% | 57.9% | -5.2% | 64.0% | 59.5% | -4.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | -0.3% |
The Winners
New York Yankees
Sometimes conventional wisdom is correct, and sometimes it is anything but. New York’s deadline falls into the first category. The Yankees came into the end of July well behind in the divisional race and fighting for their playoff lives. With a massive incentive to improve the team, they proceeded to do so aggressively, targeting an area of weakness: left-handed power hitting. Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo are giant additions to a struggling offense, while Andrew Heaney is better than his ERA and provides additional stability for a rotation that has mostly survived the injury bug. The Yankees had the largest change in their ZiPS playoff and World Series probabilities, so there was no question they’d end up here. Winning the division remains a long-shot, but they kept that hope alive, with the three other contending teams in AL East also making moves.
San Francisco Giants
The projections have regularly given the Dodgers a better shot at the division than the Giants, even when they’ve been behind in the standings by several games. That stems from the fact that ZiPS just doesn’t see the Giants as being this good of a team. Given that, any addition was going to have a larger effect on the Giants than an identical move would for the Dodgers, as Los Angeles is a team with few legitimate weaknesses. Kris Bryant is a big addition for San Francisco and he fits perfectly into the team’s current injury situation; he can play third now but has extensive experience in left field when Evan Longoria returns. ZiPS sees the Giants as an 85-win team — they’re safely going to beat that number, of course — and an 85-win team can win the World Series if they get to the playoffs.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are basically in the range of diminishing returns, so it’s impressive that they got an upgrade even this strong. Denying Max Scherzer to the Padres is just as good as getting him and Trea Turner is a big deal for the 2022 race, which is beyond the purview of these specific projections. Losing Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray is tough, but the Dodgers understand that you either play your prospects or trade your prospects. In a baseball world where winning right this very second has too-often been de-emphasized, Los Angeles gets it.
Atlanta Braves
This is a case of the whole being better than the sum of its parts. No superstars are coming to Atlanta, but they acquired a lot of talent in the outfield and a terrific bullpen arm in Richard Rodríguez, both places of serious weakness. They can now cobble together a pretty solid outfield out of Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall, and Eddie Rosario. Rodríguez isn’t a short-term addition, either, with two more full seasons until he hits free agency. It’s too bad the moves weren’t made a month ago, but better late than never.
Toronto Blue Jays
Getting José Berríos was a big deal and the injured bullpen looks a lot deeper than it did a week ago, even if the Blue Jays didn’t add anyone of Craig Kimbrel’s stature. As with the Dodgers and Turner, this was as much about 2022 as 2021; the Blue Jays can cross a starting pitcher off this winter’s shopping list.
Philadelphia Phillies
The team really needed a starting pitcher, and they got one in Kyle Gibson, who has bounced back spectacularly from his poor 2020 season with the Rangers. He’s also still under contract for 2022, which is important for a team that doesn’t want to push the luxury tax threshold. Freddy Galvis is a good depth add as well.
Chicago White Sox
With the additions of Craig Kimbrel and Ryan Tepera, I think the White Sox have the strongest bullpen in baseball, while Cesar Hernandez is a solid second baseman this year and next, which takes some of the sting out of having to give up Nick Madrigal. That they didn’t move in the probabilities is basically the result of them having already all but wrapped up the AL Central, and the best way to improve your World Series probability is to improve your chances of making the playoffs.
Oakland Athletics
Starling Marte was an excellent addition and while there’s a decent chance that Jesús Luzardo could make the A’s rue this trade, you’d be lying if you said there weren’t questions surrounding The Lizard King’s future. As an oft-injured starter or a reliever, he’s a lot less interesting. ZiPS gives Oakland the edge over Houston in terms of the projections.
Washington Nationals, Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs
They’re all here for a similar reason: they all recognized reality and traded significant players for a lot of talent. ZiPS did still gave the Nats a 1.7% chance of making the playoffs before the deadline, but that’s a slim reed to chase given where the team is right now.
Miami Marlins
I could have put the Marlins with the last group, but thinking about their rotation options in the future makes me all giddy: Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Pablo López, Sandy Alcantara, Sixto Sánchez, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett … I could keep typing all day, but my editor would be very unhappy if there were 4,000 words of me looking at this group with heart-shaped eyes popping out of my head like a 1950s cartoon character. Yes, trading Starling Marte fits a tired, old pattern with the Marlins, but he’s likely to be in decline in his next free agent contract and he wasn’t a part of the team’s central core the way, say, Christian Yelich was. I don’t know how this team is going to score runs, but they won’t need that many.
The Losers
San Diego Padres
It’s not that the Padres were incompetent or lazy or cheap or anything like that. Sometimes, you just lose despite your good-faith best efforts. The Padres are one of the best teams in baseball, but they’re in a brutal NL West race, and both of the teams ahead of them made a larger move. Then they had the bad luck to lose Fernando Tatis Jr. with another shoulder injury hours after the deadline passed, meaning that they could have used another upgrade without realizing it. Further complicating things is that the NL East contenders actually got stronger as well. The Padres were reportedly close to bringing in Scherzer instead of the Dodgers, but close isn’t better, just crueler.
Colorado Rockies
Steve Urkel has passed out in the Winslow house, and an ambulance has been called. Despite the initial belief that Steve was faking it in dramatic fashion, it turns out that he has a case of appendicitis, necessitating a hospital stay. Meanwhile, Carl was shot in the butt while stopping a robbery at a jewelry store and has to go to the hospital where, naturally, he ends up sharing a room with Steve, much to the former’s chagrin. But Carl ends up being thankful when an escaped robber comes to the hospital in disguise to get their revenge, and Steve brains the would-be killer with a bedpan to the noggin.
Why are we talking about a Family Matters episode? Well, because it has as little to do with improving the team as the Rockies front office did this deadline. In the midst of the liveliest trade deadline in years, with struggling teams acquiring all sorts of high-upside prospects, the Rockies traded Mychal Givens on Wednesday and then called it a week. Trevor Story will now fetch only a compensation pick and was unhappy by the whole situation, becoming the second Rockies star to blast the team in the press this year. Even if Colorado wasn’t ready to trade Germán Márquez, the basic fact of the team’s current situation is that Story, Jon Gray, and Daniel Bard are far more useful for what they can bring back to the team than they are playing out the stretch for the Rockies.
Los Angeles Angels
Clearly, the Angels weren’t interested in chasing their slim playoff hopes. But they also weren’t interested in retooling to make their team better in the future; Raisel Iglesias, Alex Cobb, Steve Cishek, and José Iglesias are all free agents after the season. I’m not even being flippant about Cobb; if you’ve mostly paid attention to the Shohei Ohtani part of the Angels’ season, you might have missed that Cobb has been really good this year. He’s on the IL for wrist inflammation right now, but it’s believed to be a minor issue. The Angels didn’t do much to improve their outlook now or later, so they fit here.
New York Mets
I really hate to do this, but they did lose more divisional and playoff probability than any other team in baseball, largely because the Braves and Phillies so directly addressed significant needs. Injuries have made the pitching fragile, and it would have been nice for them to just be a little more ambitious. Rich Hill is an injury risk in his own right, but more importantly, he was having his worst FIP season in a decade for Tampa Bay, meaning he’s a performance risk as well. And considering he had inflammation after throwing on Thursday, they had to know pre-deadline that the Jacob deGrom outlook had worsened and that’s not a situation that can be addressed with Trevor Williams. Javier Báez was a terrific pickup, but their pitching was the biggest problem and there are no August salary pickups.
Boston Red Sox
No, Chris Sale isn’t really a deadline pickup because all the projections already factored in his return. The Red Sox added Kyle Schwarber, but that was probably the least meaningful big move among the AL East. That Schwarber isn’t a particularly good fit for Fenway, a notoriously horrific environment for left-handed sluggers, pushes them into this category. Even Ted Williams hit 10% fewer homers at home than on the road for his career; he was awesome in Fenway because he had a lot of other hitting skills that, to be honest, Schwarber doesn’t have.
The Meh
Tampa Bay Rays
I can’t bring myself to put the Rays in the losers category, even after losing ground to the Yankees and Blue Jays, because they did make a killer pickup in Nelson Cruz, who is a better fit for the team’s needs than Schwarber is for Boston’s. Another mitigating factor is just how hard the Rays’ roster actually is to upgrade. They’re a team that’s solid in most places instead of one laden with stars but a few glaring holes. They just barely squeezed in here.
Milwaukee Brewers
You could very reasonably put the Brewers in the winners category, but I really wanted to see them make a splash at first base, as Rowdy Tellez is in the bottom-third of major league first baseman and Eduardo Escobar’s skills are kind of wasted there. I’m a bit down on the Escobar transaction anyway. Yes, third base has been an issue for the team, but that was Travis Shaw-related, a problem the Brewers fixed when they acquired Willy Adames and moved Luis Urías (101 wRC+ on the season) to the hot corner. Escobar was the right addition for the wrong team.
Houston Astros
To get into the winners tier, I think the Astros also needed to add a starting pitcher. Kendall Graveman’s a really fun pickup, but losing Myles Straw does make the outfield a bit thinner in the near future. Even if you’re all-in on Jake Meyers — I’m not quite there yet — it doesn’t mean there’s no risk here. Don’t take this as me souring on the team’s outlook. The Dodgers still project as the best team in baseball, but they may have to play a Wild Card game, making the Astros the World Series favorite of my humble computer. It’s just not because of last week’s moves.
Cincinnati Reds
Mychal Givens and Luis Cessa solidify a pretty awful bullpen, but in terms of competing in 2021, the Reds needed to shake up the race rather than just hang around. The Brewers are not invincible, and the Cincinnati is only four games behind the Padres for the second Wild Card spot. No, the Reds could not have known about Tatis’ future injury at the deadline, but luck is the residue of design, and if the team had been more aggressive, they’d have been better able to capitalize if something bad happened to the Padres. Instead of adding to their playoff chances, they gave a little back to the Braves, Phillies, and Padres. Their only good luck is that the Brewers didn’t make a coup de grâce type of transaction.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Supposedly Gray wants to stay in Colorado so the Rox are hoping they can sign him to a long-term deal so maybe not dealing him makes sense. But Story? You have to trade Story. If Cruz gets you 2 45 prospects, Story should get right around there and I’ll take that all day over the 31st pick in next year’s draft. Also, you didn’t mention him but they had no business hanging on to Cron either. He would have only brought back a lottery ticket minor leaguer but still. . . .
Go Braves!
So…ZIPS has the Brewers with the 3rd or 4th highest increase to their division and WS odds, but you put the Brewers in the meh category. I know you explained your reasons but let me try and sway you a bit.
The Brewers, with Escobar, are now set up for more platoon advantages. This improves their lineup against lefties most, but it also adds another LHH against RHPs. The Brewers lineup also was very weak when Adames is given the odd day off. Now, they can have an infield of Escobar/Urias/Wong/Tellez when they rest Willy.
Additionally, I believe the Brewers likely disagree a bit with ZIPS on the projection for Tellez. I think they noticed a guy who has some odd splits in his career, but honestly may have just needed some extended run in the starting lineup.
I thought the Escobar trade was very good, especially given what they gave up. The big issue with Urias is that defensively he’s a bit of a mess. Is that because he’s been bouncing all over the infield and can’t get comfortable, or is it because his speed is down (it is, unfortunately). If you think it’s the first one, you can have Escobar play the bounce-around-the-field role and let Urias handle one spot. If you think it’s a second, you can play Escobar at the expense of Urias.
I do think the Brewers probably needed a first base upgrade, a 7th inning guy, and maybe another starter to protect against injury / to move Houser to the bullpen in the playoffs / something like that. I think the Brewers think they can fix up Norris but it’s a projection. To me this is a team is should have been more aggressive to give them a better shot in the playoffs, but none of these are massive needs either.
I’m curious about the playoff rotation and days off. The Brewers would only need to really use a 4th starter in Game 4 of each playoff series, if I am doing the math correctly. That could be a Anderson/Houser/Lauer/Suter mix & match. Honestly, I am sure that they will have a creative way to cross that bridge.
Curtiss was likely acquired to add some competition to the 7th inning role. Boxberger has been very good but sometimes allows too many baserunners. Cousins has been fantastic and has the K profile to succeed in the playoffs, but he is on the COVID IL now. Topa is rehabbing in AAA right now, so he could be an option. There are many options available, even without getting too creative.
Urias is just fine at 3B and 2B. SS is where he has the biggest issues. He has made some phenomenal plays, especially at 3B, but as a young-ish player, he can struggle with the routine plays from time to time…see Tatis, Fernando. Speed doesn’t really have much to do with it when I watch him everyday. Consistent arm slot when he has time to think about a throw is his main bugaboo.
He just is not built to be an everyday SS. The Brewers seem to enjoy pushing young players limits a bit to see if they can uncover a hidden skill, but I think the verdict is in on Urias as an everyday SS.
Excellent posts both, Ball in Glove. Escobar protects a highly vulnerable lineup from catastrophe if an injury hits any of the Crew’s few power bats. Milwaukee may seem to be cruising to the division title, but it’s hardly wrapped up. Sure adding another bat would’ve been great, but a substantial improvement to the Tellez/Vogel/Escobar platoon would have cost a lot in prospect capital.
Curtiss was a tremendous pick-up. He’s good and controlled for 4 more years. Norris certainly looks like a gross overpay, but I think the pitching is about as deep as it can be for a mid-payroll team not going all in.
So was it a mistake NOT to go all in? I don’t think so. This team will advance in the playoffs if Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta/Hader are healthy and show out. If they don’t, no midseason bat or reliever would have lifted the team from above average to great in those areas. With those 3 stud SPs under contract for next 3 seasons, Stearns is wise to save some resources for future acquisitions when the needs are more evident. Royals and O’s were clearly asking for the world for Santana and Mancini, and while perhaps Cron was gettable, how much you wanna pony up for a right-handed rental?
Urias has been pretty bad defensively everywhere he has played this year. I think that his play at shortstop might have been so bad people couldn’t comprehend it, and it’s making people think he’s better at third simply because he’s barely passable there. The Brewers infield has been at something like -17 Outs Above Average (outs below average?) and Urias has been at -14. Half of that came at shortstop, so that’s the primary culprit. But in about the same number of innings, he’s been -4 at third base. He’s even been really bad at second base (-3 in almost no time there at all) when before he was average or even a tick above average there.
There are two things about him that are different this. First one is that he’s played all over. Second is that he’s slower (this is also quite possibly related to the fact that he now has power). It seems like you don’t think #2 isn’t an issue? He’s definitely slowed down if you check his statcast, but maybe that isn’t the issue. If it’s the first one, then he probably just needs to stay in one spot for a while.
Also, your math is correct on the 4th starter. It’s mostly that Houser is a beast in short stints and it’s nice to have another starter to protect against injury anyway. Is it necessary? No. But it would help a lot!
They aren’t gonna rest Adames. No reason too, and they have said they have no intention as Adames prefers to play everyday to stay in rhythm.
Nice job…now, would like to see the “cost of capital” analyzed. How much value did the winners give away?
How would you design a baseball WACC analysis?
For the Jays ,the Berrios move provides some insurance for next year, but I think they still want to get another starter signed. That might just mean resigning Ray vs talking a new player into going to Toronto. Internal options don’t look very reliable.
Wow, never thought I would see Myles Straw held up as a key cog in anyone’s OF. Pleased to see he’s made the most of everyday playing time. Other than covering ground in CF, though, I doubt he would have provided any more for Houston than any other speedy OF could in the next few years. Straw’s profile reads like he’s a slave to the BABIP gods because he has no other hitting skills to carry him through rough patches. But I am happy to be wrong.
Straw’s been very good this year! Like, really, really good. Elite CF defense and just a bit below league average batting is a very good player. It’s not that he has been getting a lot of BABIP, it’s that he doesn’t strike out too much and walks a lot. I’m not entirely sure how he’s controlling the strike zone like he has with so little power but if he can keep that up he’s a long-term answer in center field. I’d guess that skepticism is why the Astros dealt him, although I’d be happy to take that bet.
I asked KG in a chat a while back if Chas McCormick was a viable everyday starter for anyone and he said probably for a second division team. If the pop he’s shown doesn’t stick around, this may end up biting Houston.
Love the Family Matters reference. One of the best TV shows ever. Too bad they can’t interpolate Jamal White’s youthful appeal to current TV stars.
Who is Jaleel White?
Is that not the gentlemen who played Urple, the humorous fellow with the glasses who loves cheese?
I know him, but am not as familiar with his brother Jamal…
Dan’s Family Matters lead-in and and segue to the Rockies front office discussion is one of the best things I’ve ever read.
Of the teams that are trying to improve their chances to make the playoffs or win the division, which ones statistically improved the chances? Eyeballing the data and back of the envelope calculation suggests at best two.
In addition, I would view a team’s chance of reaching the divisional series a more intuitive metric for comparing odds for different teams.
I’ll repeat what I said re the White Sox.
Have you ever … ever … ever … criticized a team that pushed their chips in?
Gosh golly, every team that pushed chips in was a ‘winner’ and every team that said ‘no the price is just wrong’ is a ‘loser’. What a surprise, huh?
The ‘Madrigal + a promising reliever for an 8th inning guy who does NOT have a year-in year-out track record’ is really the critical case. It’s for a team that has clinched its division. Really, if you make that a ‘winner’ trade, what deadline buy do you say ‘no that was just too big a price’ about? Assuming you keep such past columns, I’d be most curious.
And no, some team who wasn’t really in position doesn’t count. That’d be a BS way of wheedling the point.
Winning now is more valuable than winning later. That’s the math you are missing.
If winning now is so much more valuable than winning later, why does the article put the Nats in the winners’ column?
What were the Nats winning this year? 3rd place trophy in the NL East if all went well?
So wait, Craig Kimbrel doesn’t have a track record in your mind? Because if you’re thinking of Tepera, he came over for a single prospect. They went and picked both those guys up for this post-season because, yes, they already have the division locked. They KNOW they are going to the playoffs this year, and Madrigal can’t help with that.
Kimbrel had a bad year or so after an injury. Towards the end of last year he quit walking people and was the most dominant relief pitcher in the mlb down the stretch. The price felt high admittedly, but relief aces go for a premium. Madrigal feels like a very safe player, but he is hurt. Sometimes players are different after injuries. But the reality is the no power average d and speed profile isn’t as valuable as people thought, and they have middle infielders hitting well in the high minors.
I actually agree with Richie here. Increasing or decreasing your odds of making the playoffs doesn’t necessarily make you a winner or a loser. I guess it depends on the context. If the idea is, who helped their odds of winning this year the most, than yeah, I guess that makes sense. However, in the grand scheme of things, only one team is going to win the world series and the majority of the teams that traded away prospects are going to wish they held on to them. I’m not saying that’s the right move as you have to go for it if you have a reasonable shot at winning, however, there’s a balance to be struck and you only truly win if one of two things happen, 1) you win the world series or 2) you gave up fair value or less in return. In my opinion, a team like the Blue Jays are one of the biggest losers of the deadline. Sure they increased their odds. however, that was a very steep price to pay to increase your playoff odds 1.6% and world series odds 0.2%. They’ll almost certainly wish they could have the trade back five years from now.
Agree with the point that “playoff odds up = winner, playoff odds down = loser”, I think that’s too simplistic. Also agree that the Jays overpaid for a (still) small shot at a Wild Card appearance. I think you are spot on there.
However I don’t agree that you can judge a trade by hindsight: “only one team is going to win the world series, the majority of teams that traded away prospects are going to wish they held onto them.” For example the Dodgers set themselves up for a potentially dominant rotation and lineup this postseason; if, for example, their bullpen blew the seventh game of the World Series this year, I don’t think that automatically makes a good trade into a bad one they would suddenly want to undo.
I don’t think you can do results-based analysis so much as look at whether it seemed a reasonable move at the time. (Which, for me, Dodgers = yes, they are positioned very well for this October; Blue Jays = not so much, their odds improved a tick but remain quite low and they have virtually no shot at the division.)
I generally agree with you there, however, I do think you need to use hindsight to judge a trade involving prospects. With prospects there’s generally a wide range of opinions on how good a prospect is whereas there typically aren’t huge disagreements with the value of an established veteran. Austin Martin is a great example. He has generally been considered a top tier prospect, however, Eric had pointed out that there is growing skepticisms that his skill set will translate to the majors. So, perhaps the Blue Jays viewed him as a player with $10M in surplus value but the Twins have him pegged at $50M. If that were true, the trade makes a lot more sense but only one team will be right and only time will tell.
It’s Jake Burger time.
Ben Clemens should have looked at these numbers before calling the Phillies losers in his piece.
Nice article. Rowdy finished last season incredibly strong by basically making a lot of contact saying “I realized I don’t have to swing hard to hit home runs.” He started out poorly for the Blue Jay’s and clearly looked to be pressing. He has turned it around with the Brewers, so at the very minimum he is a serviceable and I think the bat carries significant upside, as he showing signs lately of what he did towards the end of last season.
Rowdy Tellez is one individual in a long, long line of left-handed batters who the Blue Jays didn’t want anymore that the Brewers got their hands on. In the last two years alone we have Rowdy Tellez, Dan Vogelbach, Billy McKinney, Derek Fisher, Justin Smoak, and reacquiring Travis Shaw (and Eric Sogard although I think he might have had another team in between).
Clearly, they think there is something about lefties in Toronto where the think they underperformed there and will do better in Milwaukee. They sometimes seem to catch lightning in a bottle (Vogelbach had a 164 wRC+ for them last year, albeit in only 67 PAs) but if you look at that list it does not have many success stories. Maybe the sixth time is the charm? He certainly has played well so far. In any case, if the Blue Jays ever give up on Cavan Biggio, the Brewers will be the first in line.
That is true. Didn’t occur to me. I hold out hope for Rowdy, however. He is younger and I feel like the bat is/will be good enough to hold down first base. Remains to be seen, I guess.
that zips projection change for seattle is the most mariners thing i’ve ever seen. it’s truly beautiful. kinda like khris davis in team form.
I know it is “beyond the purview of these specific projections,” but inquiring minds want to know: What happens if you give Scherzer to the Padres instead?
How are the A’s “Winners” when their playoff odds declined?
7th-largest increase in Division odds, tho.
Stating that the Brewers have a better chance of winning the WS than the Dodgers is simply difficult to believe at a gut level, and I would really like to know more about the reason that might be the case.
Path
One team has to win the NL Central and then beat whatever NL East team limps over the finish line.
The other team has to survive the NL West, then likely beat another NL West team again in the division game.
What would a multi year ZiPS look like? Is that even possible?
Just want to throw out there that Abraham Toro has a wRC+ of 318 as of yesterday (it’s lower now since he”only” put a 110 wRC+ line today) in 19 PAs, rocking a cool .526 OBP and if he were to keep up his current pace of home runs over 600 PAs he’d have over 60 home runs. Prorated over an entire season, he would be worth over 18 fWAR.
I foresee some regression here, but since it is Toro’s destiny (destiny, I say!) to end Seattle’s world series drought I would say Jerry Dipoto should pat himself on the back and get himself some ice cream to celebrate.
I still think the Schwarber trade all depends on if he plays first base. If he just moves to the OF as the depth charts suggest, the trade is probably a wash. If he can actually play a serviceable 1B though, which they are obviously going to try considering they don’t have any good options there, I don’t see how that doesn’t help the team. I don’t think it’s a big enough difference to turn them into a ‘winner’ on this article because a first baseman can only help your ZiPS projection so much, but if you are swapping Dalbec’s bat with Schwarber’s, it is a sizeable upgrade.
He has to be first base, right? Starting rehab now so I’m curious to see where he slots in. I do feel like ex catchers have done better defensively at 1st than random other first base projects, so maybe he can be OK? I don’t see why else they would of gotten him, because they have competent outfielders everywhere and their one gaping hole offensively is first base. Between dalbec/Santana/marwin it’s been a huge zero.
I honestly am kind of surprised that so many people seem to think he’s going to primarily be in the outfield. Do you know how bad of a defensive first baseman Kyle Schwarber would have to be in order for him to be net worse than Bobby Dalbec? The bar is so ridiculously low that this move seems pretty shrewd to me.
Hell, Schwarber might even be a DEFENSIVE upgrade at first. Not because he’ll be good – he won’t be. But in addition to his hitting, Dalbec has been atrocious defensively this year, ranking dead last in the league in DRS and OOA at first. The bar is freaking subterranean for the Schwarber deal to provide value
Yes the rangers got talent for their farm system although odds are that only 1 will be servicible the rest are just fodder for the farm teams. Which is not JDs nor CYs priority. Maybe I’m wrong about the 6 , but I doubt it. Cashman bent CY over and didn’t even use Vaseline. That’s a fact.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/meh
meh adjective
Definition of meh (Entry 2 of 2)
1: not impressive : SO-SO
a meh documentary
2: APATHETIC, INDIFFERENT
the movie left me feeling meh
I don’t think there’s a team that personifies “Meh” more than the Cardinals. Instead of choosing a position, they tried to ride the line of competing without buying; selling probably made more sense (their playoff odds were consistently around 2% for all of July). Kwang Hyun Kim could have brought back a perfectly cromulent prospect (a 40 FV or something similar), but perhaps they want to give him a qualifying offer. That’d be the high end of what he could earn annually, but for one year, it might be worth the risk. Someone might have thrown a lottery ticket at STL for Andrew Miller — he still gets lefties out.
Instead of adding a couple of complementary pieces to a terrible farm system and aiming to compete next year, they actually gave up a young depth lefty and got literally nothing in return. Happ and Lester are toast. Neither are “eating innings” at this point in their careers, either, so that’s not a good explanation.