Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 8/7/23

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: Let’s get started right away

Sammy So-so: What do you make of Jarred Kelenic’s season prior to the unfortunate injury, Ben? Started off scorching, then he was pretty pedestrian. Is he a solid regular going forward or something else? Thanks.

Ben Clemens: I think solid regular with boom/bust tendencies sounds about right to me

Ben Clemens: He’s kind of miniature Joey Gallo; when he’s not striking out that much, the power really plays

Ben Clemens: But his swing is just not geared for contact, and he doesn’t have a superlative batting eye or anything

Ben Clemens: So I think he’s inevitably going to have these stretches where he strikes out 40% of the time and feels unplayable

Cube Jockey: Any historical comps that point to Jordan Walker turning into even just a mediocre corner outfielder?

Ben Clemens: Nothing springs to mind, but he’s such a weird case that I’m not at code red just yet. He’s 21 and the first time he played outfield was last year in Double-A

Ben Clemens: I think the bet here is that his athleticism is going to continue to play while his reads and routes improve

Ben Clemens: I don’t think he’s ever going to be great but of course he’s awful right now

farhanfan22: what is LA thinking by playing Austin Barnes over Hunter Feduccia, Feddy is a righty killer who smashes high velocity fastballs. Do you see LA carrying 3 catchers this season?

Ben Clemens: I mean, I think they are thinking ‘Dave Roberts trusts Barnes to call a game’

Ben Clemens: also, Feduccia’s first above average offensive season since short-season A ball is this year

Ben Clemens: so it’s not like he’s guaranteed offense in a can

Ben Clemens: but yeah, Barnes should not be playing. He’s been SO bad this year

JC: How accurate are league adjustments in the minors? I see some .350 wOBAs with a sub 100 wRC+.

Ben Clemens: So, the big issue with our minor league adjustments is that we only league adjust, not park adjust

Ben Clemens: but overall, they’re not going to miss something like you’re talking about

Ben Clemens: the PCL is outrageously high scoring this year, 6.21 runs per game

Ben Clemens: It’s just really hard to think in wOBA terms given that

Ben Clemens: like that league’s OBP this year is .369

Brandon Pfaadt: How many guys can be successful while hiding their extremely hittable fastball? What’s his ceiling knowing his fastball isn’t MLB standard? He looked really great in his last start focusing on the sweeper.

Ben Clemens: I think Pfaadt is gonna be pretty good

Ben Clemens: ‘extremely hittable fastball’ describes SO MANY pitchers today

Domingo: Would Fangraphs ever consider showing bWAR for the sake of comparison?

Ben Clemens: I’m not in management, but I don’t think so. Would reference ever consider showing ours? Presumably not

Ben Clemens: It just feels like a weird thing to do, to me offhand

Mariner Fan: How does the Phillies as a team have a 16.6 fWAR over 996.1 IP, while the Mariners have a 15.2 fWAR over 1002.1 IP when comparing their 2023 team pitching stats?All of this is despite the Mariners having literally better metrics across the board. The only stat that favors the Phillies is GB% which they hold a 0.1% advantage 43.7% to 43.6% over the Mariners!

Ben Clemens: park adjustments

Princess Leia: Help us Obi-wan Clemon-obi, You’re our only hope

Ben Clemens: Hey, that’s a new one

Domingo: A lefty catcher would be better at fielding bunts than a righty. Why no lefty catchers?

Ben Clemens: As a once-young lefty, I can tell you that when I played little league, there was no consideration of me catching

Ben Clemens: it was first base or center field (I was fairly fast)

Ben Clemens: I’m not sure if that’s all of it, but that’s a lot of it, the pipeline is just not there

Acuna Matata: what a wonderful phrase!

And what a frickin STUD! Really hope he starts lifting balls a little more. I want to see 40-70 SO bad.

Ben Clemens: 40/70 would be amazing

Oaktown Blues: Are you surprised the A’s couldn’t get anything for Laureano at the deadline?

Ben Clemens: So…. no, but only because I assume they were trying to trade him with his contract attached

Ben Clemens: I think he’s probably fine as a fourth outfielder somewhere

Ben Clemens: the last two years do not give me a lot of hope that he’s going to crack the offensive code anytime soon

Ben Clemens: But I can’t imagine many teams wanting to give up prospects and take on money for a backup

Jaffe rhymes with Taffy: Is it fair to say after 3 games Davis Schneider has provided more value than Vlad Jr.?  0.6 fWAR to 0.3 fWAR, or is this a complete misuse of the WAR metric?

Ben Clemens: haha, misuse of the WAR statistic but that’s funny

Ben Clemens: boy, Vlad is having a rough one this year

Colton: After the spot start yesterday, do you think the Cardinals will finally commit to Thompson being in the rotation moving forward? If they move him back to the bullpen in favor of Dakota Hudson I have completely lost faith in any decision making body within that organization.

Ben Clemens: I do think so, but if we’re being honest, they should probably go six man rotation or cut Waino out

Ben Clemens: Hudson is worth speculating on too, imo

Matt: How good would Johan Ruis have to be in the OF, and Harper at 1b, for the phillies to not bring back Hoskins next year?  What do you think the most important part of that puzzle is?

Ben Clemens: uh, Hoskins maybe? He’s a free agent

Ben Clemens: I think the odds of them not bringing Hoskins back are fairly high, to be honest. It feels like a weird fit given how many DH types they have

Ben Clemens: particularly if you’re at least a little worried about Harper’s ability to stay healthy playing right

Jon: Arozarena seems like a trade candidate based on his service time, but he’s so central to the Rays’ fans (Randyland). What are the odds of him getting moved?

Ben Clemens: I can’t see it happening. I also think he’s central to the overall team atmosphere, and he’s not comically overpaid or anything

Ben Clemens: The Rays do a lot of trading before people reach arb, but it’s not an across-the-board plan or anything

Guest: Never thought I would pose the question, but I think the circumstances at least call for consideration now. If you were an A’s fan would you continue to be one or move alliances across the bay?

Ben Clemens: Ugh

Ben Clemens: This is really tough

Ben Clemens: Assuming the A’s move, I think you immediately become a free agent. I’m not sure that means cheering for the Giants, crosstown (cross-bay?) rivalries die hard even if they’re not in the same league, but you should pick a team you like watching

Ben Clemens: It’s fun to attend games in person even if you’re not a fan of the home team, in my opinion

Ben Clemens: and if going to some Giants games makes you develop a little bit of homerism for them, so be it

Oaktown Blues: At this point, which side of the Puk/Bleday trade do you prefer?

Ben Clemens: the Puk side, but not by a lot

Ben Clemens: I think he’s the bird in the hand in this scenario, a guy who will be a nice but not overwhelmingly good reliever for the next few years

Ben Clemens: Bleday…. I mean, I don’t really see it, but stranger things have happened

Farhandrew Zaidman: Dodgers seem to have got that positional flexibility back, defense is improved by more regularly DHing Muncy for Taylor/Kiké, Buehler/Kersh/Julio are all already back or coming back. Over/under 95 wins for my boys in blue?

Ben Clemens: I can’t believe I’m saying this but over

Appa Yip Yip: Over/Under on number of mustaches grown by Blue Jays position players by this time next week at 1.5

Ben Clemens: Smash the over on this one

Brian: Was Kodai  Senga considered for the trade value list?

Ben Clemens: Honestly, not really

Ben Clemens: The contract is kinda funky, if it turns out that he’s great he can opt out in two years

Ben Clemens: so like, the whole ‘oh it’s a ton of years of a good AAV’ thing doesn’t quite add up

Ben Clemens: and he’s not dominant enough that 2.5 years of him is beating out 2.5 years of Gallen/Framber types

Ben Clemens: so that would put him down at the bottom of the list if he were on there, but like…. him or Joe Ryan? easy ryan for me

Alex: Please explain the 2023 San Diego Padres. I do not understand

Ben Clemens: Truly baffling lol

Ben Clemens: The stars are playing like stars, the role players have been less dire than feared, they are scoring a ton of runs and….

Ben Clemens: yeah just doesn’t work

Guest: So after a week of thinking…yeah, I still don’t get the Royals’ side of the Nicky Lopez trade. Not only would they have saved more money simply by letting him get claimed on waivers, but if they wanted Hearn, they could have claimed him straight-up on waivers not long before. At least a flier arm would make more sense than getting Hearn back. Small deal in the grand scheme of things, but arguably the single dumbest decision for this trade deadline.

Ben Clemens: It makes no sense whatsoever

Ben Clemens: it’s like bad process bad results

RA Niekro: Favorite Immaculate Grid guys?  I find myself being able to use Dan Haren pretty often, and he typically gets a low %.

Guest: you play immaculate grid?

Also what makes Lars Nootbaar the greatest second half performer in MLB history?

Ben Clemens: I play immaculate grid sometimes; very extremely minor spoiler but I’m grumpy b/c Phil Maton does not count as an Astros WS champion

Ben Clemens: I think he was injured and missed the playoffs, c’est la vie

Northside: Is Steele regressing just as the Cubs need their starting pitchers to step up?

Ben Clemens: Eh, it’s two rough games

Ben Clemens: To be honest, I have not watched those two starts particularly closely

Ben Clemens: but I’d hold off on sounding the alarm just yet, nothing jumps out at me from looking over the stats superficially

O’s Fan: The Orioles seem intent on finding a role for Jorge Mateo, even giving him a start in CF, who simply can’t hit.  Would they be better off promoting Joey Ortiz who is smashing the ball in Norfolk and just cutting bait on Mateo.

Ben Clemens: Yeah if you aren’t playing Mateo for his 65/70 shortstop defense, I don’t get it

Ben Clemens: like, he can really pick it, he’s a valuable defensive infielder

Ben Clemens: truly cannot hit

Mike M: Does this current skid change your views about the Angels trade-deadline strategy?

Ben Clemens: Nope, not really. Pretty bad beat to go 2-8 and lose two key contributors to injury in that stretch. I’m actually writing about this tomorrow

Ben Clemens: Their odds of making the playoffs weren’t great or anything

Ben Clemens: I’d still have gone for it

Ben Clemens: clearly, it has not turned out well

David: Are the Yankees to blame for how they handled Rizzo or are concussions just really tricky?

Ben Clemens: I think this is a question that can’t really be answered without being on the inside or getting inside sources

Ben Clemens: concussions are definitely really tricky, particularly post-concussion symptoms and so on

Dave: Does the fact that seemingly every advanced defensive metric is a comparison to average at a given position cause evaluation issues? If there’s a sudden influx of new players at a given position that shift the average noticeably, is there any way to tease that out of the data? Or does it create the possibility that it looks like player X became a worse defender when in reality his competition just got better?

Ben Clemens: oh, that’s totally possible

Ben Clemens: On the other hand…. that’s kind of what we’re trying to measure

rizzless rizzo: who would be the most exciting non-Atlanta team to root for down the stretch?

Ben Clemens: Okay, I have a few options for you depending on what style of baseball you like

Ben Clemens: kids sitting at the grownup table? O’s and Reds, probably O’s because the Reds are fading fat

Ben Clemens: fast*

Ben Clemens: defense and pitching? I’m partial to the Giants, and you get the gorgeous bay views on the broadcast too

Ben Clemens: do you like Bryce Harper a lot? the Phillies

Ben Clemens: do you want to root against the Astros, which I feel like a lot of fans do? The Rangers

JRod: Am I just going to be a slow starter?

Ben Clemens: Hard to say after two seasons, one of which was his rookie year

rowdy and adames: is this who we are, or did we hit our 20th percentile outcome this season?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna say that this is close to who Rowdy is, like not this bad but not an impact bat, maybe a 90 wRC+ type

Ben Clemens: not a good 1b

Ben Clemens: I think Adames just hit a 20th percentile outcome

Ben Clemens: I’ve spent a long time trying to figure out why his numbers are so bad and I just don’t see a clear culprit. He’s also started pressing it seems, swinging and chasing more, trying to get it back. Feels like the kind of thing that an offseason presses reset on

MilwaukeeBeerJays: How Davis Schneider? Why Davis Schneider? Where Davis Schneider?

Ben Clemens: the fact that he’s been using a glove he found at lost and found is just so perfect

EonADS: Please convince me the Guardians made the right move by acquiring Manzardo for Civale.

Ben Clemens: mmmm….

Ben Clemens: .I’m not wild about it, haha

Ben Clemens: I think it fits with the way they operate

Ben Clemens: so in that sense, they have to play the team as it lies

Ben Clemens: but I think they’re kind of pigeonholing themselves into this develop/trade pitching and get a lot of decent but not star players mold

Ben Clemens: hey, not bad, clearly works

Alex: Bryce Elder – despite everything – his Tiffany-blue baseball savant page, his having given up seven runs in three of his last five starts, and on the other hand also All-Star selection – based on his first 22 major league starts, Bryce Elder *seems* like he’ll settle in as a pretty good 4/5 starter, somewhere in between Jon Niese and Dillon Gee. Is that fair?

Ben Clemens: that’s exactly the vibe I get

Romorr: Ben, just know if the standings hold in the ALE, I will let everyone know you picked the Orioles. I am your hype man, man.

Ben Clemens: That turned out surprisingly well for what was really just an odds bet

Ben Clemens: I do feel good about it, I’m not gonna lie

Phil: After the Royals lost their DH due to a catcher injury, Quatraro said that Greinke would only have hit with a lead. Are you confident that was right, tactically? Assuming Greinke was likelier to get outs than the bullpen, and had a greater than zero chance of getting on base, what is the threshold where it makes sense to leave him in? I suppose the question would have seemed far less novel in the NL a few years ago.

Ben Clemens: I’m kiiiiind of interested in looking into this, I really miss getting to write articles about pitchers hitting

Ben Clemens: also it’s insulting that they didn’t let him hit, what are we doing here?

Ben Clemens: no one’s going to remember who won that game but there was a non-zero chance of him doing something Greinke-esque

Travis: Is Acuna’s K rate next year closer to his career average or 2023 season?

Ben Clemens: hmmmmmm…. I think I have to take career average but I think it’s close

Ben Clemens: his career average is 23%

Ben Clemens: this year 12.2%

Ben Clemens: I feel like 17-18% sounds right to me

Alex: Bill James’s answer to “why no lefty catchers”: if you are left-handed and can throw the ball hard enough to catch, you are going to end up on the mound. Every single time.

Ben Clemens: I mean…. you’re likely to end up on the mound as a righty too. I think that’s definitely a part but it’s a lot of things, not just that

Jason: With regression hitting the dbacks hard, what are the positive takeaways from this season(aside from Carroll)?

Ben Clemens: Building from Jay Jaffe’s article on them today, I think that Christian Walker being a solid 1b is really nice

Ben Clemens: Alek Thomas has turned it up slightly, if he’s an average bat he’s going to be a really valuable player

Ben Clemens: I’m very encouraged by Gab Moreno despite so-so overall stats

Ben Clemens: So…. I dunno, there are some things

Mike: Guardians chances to win the AL Central now looking very bleak. Think there’s still hope for next year or are they going to be middling for a while?

Ben Clemens: Yes to both haha

Ben Clemens: middling means you’ve got a shot

Ben Clemens: in the AL central, at least

Colton: Re: Thompson-Hudson. Isn’t Hudson redundant to what they’re looking for moving forward? He’s never run an average strikeout rate and consistently has the highest walk rate in baseball. I understand keeping options open, but at some point the door has to close on him, right?

Ben Clemens: I think Hudson is very key to what should be a core cardinals goal

Ben Clemens: Having sven players who can make major league starts in 2024

Ben Clemens: Moving Matz back to the rotation was a nice start on that

Ben Clemens: but I think they really need to dig deep and find as many people as they can

The Pirate Parrot: Will the pirates strongly consider moving bednar or keller in the offseason? Feels like a big step backward for a club that should be moving forward

Ben Clemens: I think that trading Keller would be a mistake from a team-building standpoint, but I think you can talk the team into a reliever trade being consistent with trying to keep getting better

Ben Clemens: Honestly, it’s hard to figure out the Pirates’ motives though

Ben Clemens: How much is Nutting-driven? How much is Cherington? How much is about trying to get fans into PNC and how much is about a sustainable winner and…

Dan: When a teams relative WAR projections are noticably different than their relative ROS win percentage projection does that say they are unusually good/bad at deploying their talent efficiently or is it nearly all strength of schedule? Or am I missing something else entirely?

Ben Clemens: strength of schedule almost exclusively

Ben Clemens: tehre’s a tiny impact because we don’t calculate team strength directly from WAR

Ben Clemens: we take the projected statlines and turn them into runs scored and runs allowed per game via BaseRuns with some adjustments for defense

Ben Clemens: so it’s both, but strength of schedule is just a much bigger factor

Guards: Why do we consistently prioritize contact over power in talent acquisition ?

Ben Clemens: It’s pretty clearly an organizational philosophy, and I really don’t know the exact reason behind it

Ben Clemens: It might have something to do with the relative costs of power and contact in arbitration, the Guardians seem very serious about keeping arbitration payouts down

Ben Clemens: It’s not inherently better, or inherently more immune to the whims of the offensive environment, or anything

SeaTown: What can we expect from Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo the rest of this year? What about for the next couple years? I’m thinking high end 3s, not too far behind Gilbert, but maybe I’m too hopeful.

Ben Clemens: I think they’re middle-end 3s, but I’ve heard people more optimistic than that for usre

J: If you’re putting any stock into a pitcher’s results against the Braves in one game, you’re going to think every pitcher sucks.

Ben Clemens: There’s this too!

Billy’s beans: Did the increased playoff field kill the trade deadline?

Ben Clemens: Last year’s deadline was wild

Ben Clemens: So I think it’s probably too soon to say?

12 to 6: how did *nobody* manage to pry michael busch loose from the dodgers, given he’s entirely blocked right now? minors are minors and it is a hitters’ league, but you can’t tell me busch shouldn’t be starting 4+ times a week for *someone* at dh right now.

Ben Clemens: I agree with you, he’s mashing, but what was there to trade to go get him?

Ben Clemens: that the Dodgers needed, I mean

Guest: Odds Shohei wins the CY AND the triple crown?

Ben Clemens: It’s low just b/c the triple crown is so tough

Ben Clemens: and he’s not a cy favorite at hte moment either

Ben Clemens: like, making up 15 points of average on Bichette plus passing two people and not getting passed by anyone, plus making up a 7 rbi gap

Ben Clemens: both really hard

Benny: Considering the DH penalty where hitters on average fare worse when batting as a DH and that it would make sense that hitters may perform worse while pitching (obviously not much data on that since so few players have batted a lot as both pitchers and position players), how likely is it that Ohtani would be an even better hitter somehow as an outfielder? (Not suggesting he give up pitching, just wondering)

Ben Clemens: Eh, I’m not super convinced by this. I think that some of the DH penalty is an unobservable injury issue

Ben Clemens: Like, when you’re feeling banged up, you play DH

Ben Clemens: so naturally DH’s have worse average health, particularly given the way that teams spread around DH AB’s so much now

Ben Clemens: I can’t imagine that giving Ohtani MORE things to do would be a great idea

Okra: Is it just me or do we penalize prospects too much if there is risk of moving down the defensive spectrum?  I always hear prospects guys say ‘there is such a high bar to clear’ but wRC+ for LF, RF, DH this year is 102, 104, 108.  Doesn’t seem that high of a bar.

Ben Clemens: I think we do too much for really good bats

Ben Clemens: but I guess the thing is, average bats who play those defensive positions are just available

Ben Clemens: all the time

Ben Clemens: if you wanted to find a 100 wRC+ left fielder at the trade deadline

Ben Clemens: like, ok, easy

Ben Clemens: so that makes them less interesting to teams

Phil: Plus it’s not like the Royals are playing for anything. If you go to the game when Greinke is pitching you’re going to see Greinke.

Ben Clemens: Yeah exactly!

Farhandrew Zaidman: As fun as a Jackson Holliday 2023 call up would be, there’s no way THIS Orioles team, which is so forward thinking, starts his clock this soon, right?….right???

Ben Clemens: I could see it happening if they think he’s a lock to start next year in the bigs

Ben Clemens: Wouldn’t affect the service time clock at all that way

Ben Clemens: That said, uh, I don’t think that will happen

tortycraig: I think the whole ‘we’re pivoting to a swing and miss strategy’ is hilarious, and making way too big an impact on Cardinals fan expectations. Like, they need 7-8 competent starters in 2024 and we’re gonna be lucky to get one with ‘swing and miss’. It’s like an aging athlete saying ‘ah! I’m just going to run faster and hit harder now that everyone’s doing that’

Ben Clemens: Haha yeah

Ben Clemens: ‘we ran this regression, and it says strikeouts are good. We are now going to do more strikeouts’

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: Hey Ben.

The White Sox are clearly not competing next year. Why on earth hold on to Cease? IF, all goes well, they compete in two years, that’ll be the last year they have him. Plus, they have to hope he stays healthy/effective that whole time.

Ben Clemens: I dunno, because people like watching Dylan Cease pitch and do you really want the team to be an absolute tire fire?

Ben Clemens: I mean, to be fair, it already kind of is

Ben Clemens: But even more of one!

Ben Clemens: I think there’s value in having a good player on your team even if you’re not gonna be great. Like if they got blown away for a trade package for him fine, but it’s not like he HAD to go no matter the offers available

Dan: I just found out about Anthony Seigler playing left handed defense in the outfield and right handed defense as a catcher and feel like someone should have told me about him sooner. This seems wild.

Ben Clemens: Wait what? I’m gonna go read about this

Guest: Are you surprised the Cardinald didn’t part with any OF?

Ben Clemens: Yes I am

Ben Clemens: Yankees for one of O’Neill or Carlson made sense, I think the Yankees being bad enough that they didn’t buy really poured cold water on that

Farhandrew Zaidman: I’m just gonna rant into the ether that the Qualified IP mark for pitchers desperately, desperately needs to be lowered. Like there’s currently juuuust over 2 qualified pitchers per team. Lame.

Ben Clemens: totally agreed

Oddball Herrera: Re: Holliday. Weirder guys have made postseason rosters. Would you rather send in Mateo off the bench or Holliday?

Ben Clemens: I’m actually more interested in Mateo on a postseason roster than regular season, because of the defense

Ben Clemens: having an ultra-defense lineup to run out when you have a lead is awesome

HappyFunBall: 230 PAs in, Elly De La Cruz is Javier Baez right? Basically? Really good but isn’t about to threaten Acuna for best-in-baseball any time soon.

Ben Clemens: It’s probably a liiiiittle early to say that about a 21-year-old switch hitter, and after 230 PA, but he’s got some stuff to work on for sure

Tommy: What have your thoughts been on the non Corbin Carroll contingent of young dbacks outfielders? Thomas in particular has some interesting underlying numbers

Ben Clemens: Yeah I like Thomas the most of them, I think the speed and sneaky pop combination will play

Izzy: I know Riley Greene’s BAPIP is over .400, but he’s still pretty good, right?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think so

tortycraig: no need to share this but my friend and I are 99% sure that we’re going to see Dylan Carlson for Trevor Rogers by year’s end; it just feels too Cardinals to not happen

Ben Clemens: Oh I could totally see this!

Jerry: How good has Nootbaar’s defense in center been? I don’t really understand the advanced defensive stats.

Ben Clemens: the short answer: not enough data to say, but it certainly seems fine

Ben Clemens: Ever so slightly longer answer: I think he’s probably a below average but not by much CF, or a good corner guy

Exasperated Rangers fan: Answer a single rangers question??????????????

Ben Clemens: I’ll answer this one

Ben Clemens: Um, there was one about Chris Young getting credit for what JD did, and totally yeah

Anonymous Coward: Does Spencer Strider have have a home run problem? (Does it count as a problem if he’s still great?)

Ben Clemens: I do think he’s gonna have a little bit of HR vulnerability always

Ben Clemens: not a ton of different pitches and fastball-reliant

Ben Clemens: but like, yeah, not much of a problem

Ben Clemens: he’s so good

Smiliing Politely: Lance Lynn says no haha

Ben Clemens: Haha yeah, there are problems and then there are PROBLEMS

Jason: Ben, is there any hope for Spencer Torkelson going forward? Seems like he has shown flashes this year (more so than in ’22). I want to believe he, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Jake Rogers are the nucleus of a young team that can approach .500 next year…and therefore contend in the AL Central

Ben Clemens: Man, I don’t know what to make of Tork at this point

Ben Clemens: he’s totally shown flashes, that’s a great way of putting it

Ben Clemens: he has 15 bombs in a tough park, it’s not like he’s been unplayable

Ben Clemens: I think that his power being more + than ++ has mattered more than I expected

Ben Clemens: like, that was supposed to be his carrying tool but 83rd percentile max exit velo is not what I was hoping for

Ben Clemens: I think he’s gonna end up as a hitter who consistently posts wRC+’s above 100 but below 120, and that’s kinda disappointing given my hopes

Dan: I’m interested in your thoughts on this. I, as most of us here do, yearn for baseball all year but I found myself dispirited as a Mets fans attending their game on Friday against the Orioles. In your opinion, is it still worth going to games when possible despite potentially seeing AAA players like Peterson, Curtiss, Reid Garrett, DJ Stewart, Rafael Ortega, etc since there are only so many games per season? Or is this a time when it’s simply not worth going because it’s so much less enjoyable than before? I know this is very subjective, but interested to read your thoughts

Ben Clemens: I think this really comes down to what you’re looking for in your baseball experience

Ben Clemens: i LOVE going to games as a fan, I go to minor league games with no clue who the prospects are, no questions asked. I’m a big fan of the crack of the bat and how food tastes at hte stadium and all of that

Ben Clemens: I went to a ton of Mets games in ’17 and ’18 when they were trash down the stretch and had fun

Ben Clemens: But it really depends what your expectations are

Guest: How do your expectations for Andrew Vaughn compare to Tork?

Ben Clemens: so I had Vaughn as less of a pure power guy and hopefully more spray to all fields hitter, think what people thought Freddie Freeman was before he took a few more steps

Ben Clemens: like, early-career Freeman before he turned into god

Ben Clemens: I think that is probably out of the question. He doesn’t have the plate disciplin to make it work, if you’re looking for a one-line answer

Dan: I tend to be the same and just love being at games, but thought I might be crazy after looking at tickets for upcoming games. Always appreciate your opinions on the fan experience

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, I think a lot of fans are there because they want the playoff chase

Ben Clemens: I love that too, to be clear

Ben Clemens: but the marginal amount of fans is clearly down, and maybe that hits ticket pricdes more?

Guest: Regarding the padres: sometimes really good teams just get crazy unlucky, and things just don’t click right. Don’t think there’s anything inherently flawed about the team. 2018 nats are another example of this

Ben Clemens: Yeah, generally concur with this

Ben Clemens: if they make the plyaoffs, no one is going to want to face them

carl: just think, if the guardians accidentally developed a hitter that could hit hrs, they could then trade them for somebody who doesn’t

Ben Clemens:

Tom: Big weekend from the Mariners… They moved their consistent closer for small pieces and go on a streak.  Do you think they will make the playoffs again?

Ben Clemens: I can’t talk myself into it

Ben Clemens: I think the ALE teams are just too good

Kodai Senga: Will I be traded or leave the Mets when my option comes and what are the 5 most likely teams to sign or acquire me?

Ben Clemens: I think the most likely outcome is that he opts out

Ben Clemens: He looks like a solid #2 starter to me

Ben Clemens: Obviously we’ll get to see two more years of that, but if he’s roughly this level, he’ll get more than 2/30 at age 33

Appa Yip Yip: Re: good teams being unlucky, gaze upon the Blue Jays RISP numbers and try not to claw your eyes out at the eldritch horrors contained therein

Ben Clemens: I’m not saying that I enjoy these strange failures

Ben Clemens: They’re no fun when you’re living them

Ben Clemens: But I love that the fabric of baseball includes this experience

Ben Clemens: It’s good life training. “How can this arbitrary and unfair thing be happening to me? It must be something bad I did’

Ben Clemens: really relatable feeling

Liam: How much does org development skill vs. just random variance play into how a prospect pans out? obviously impossible to answer, but in terms of teams “whiffing” on guys in drafts… like is it just way more of random progression of an 18 year old than it is some special sauce that the dodgers, astros etc. have?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s both, which is an unsatisfying answer, but I think you have to look at draft hauls in big data sets to really hvae a great idea

Ben Clemens: the Dodgers/Astros/Cardinals/Rays have done a really good job at getting production out of players they draft in the broad sweep of things, even excluding single players

Ben Clemens: but in every individual case, there’s huge variance

bb: 17 y/o Ethan Salas putting up an 840 OPS in A ball seems pretty impressive

Ben Clemens: Yeah underratedly awesome season

Ben Clemens: I feel like this is somewhat similar to when Jackson Chourio burst onto the scene last year

Ben Clemens: worse numbers but a year younger and tougher position

Guest: say something nice about Juan Soto, who people said mean things about for more than a year. Will he finish opsing over 1000 ? I say yes

Ben Clemens: Oh man, I love saying nice things about Juan Soto

Ben Clemens: He’s my favorite player to watch in the non-Ohtani division, I just love how he turns an at-bat into theatrics

Ben Clemens: also, yes, he’s one of the best players in the game and somehow a lightning rod

Pat: Sometimes going to games when your team is out of it is just more fun..You have no expectations & can just enjoy the game. One of the most fun times I’ve ever had at a game was with my son,  buying 5th row seats behind home plate for $35 at Comerica when Detroit was out of it in September & watching Corey Kluber throw a 2 hitter & dominate a bad Tigers team. Man, against boy stuff

Ben Clemens: Sometimes, for sure

Ben Clemens: I have a lot of good memories of meaningless September baseball

Ben Clemens: I particularly have this memory, I can’t tell you what month last year but second half of the season, where Zac Gallen just carved the Giants up as part of his scoreless streak

Ben Clemens: delightful to watch

Ben Clemens: that said… my favorite live baseball experience was Game 5 of the 2012 NLDS between the Nats and Cardinals

Ben Clemens: high stakes baseball is also great

Dan: You have to guess how many WS Ohtani will play in. How much more confidence would you have if you could guess after he signs a new contract verse immediately after this season ends?

Ben Clemens: a ton more after he signs a new deal, just specifically because of the Dodgers question

RTJ: speaking of fan experiences – went to the Cubs Braves game yesterday and – besides being delightful as a whole – really enjoyed watching Ronald Acuna race a ballboy to pick up a foul ball while he was waiting on deck. Little things you don’t see on TV (probably) and just show how much fun these guys are having

Ben Clemens: the Braves are always having a ton of fun

Ben Clemens: other fun in-person teams for me: DBacks, Rays, Cubs

Ben Clemens: I’m limited by who I’ve seen in person this year but I liked all of those

Ben Clemens: brb

Ben Clemens: back

Billy’s Beans: Now that the A’s stadium has been decided, when will we see TB decide where to play?

Ben Clemens: “settled”

Tony Plush: I don’t know what the small sample “numbers” say, but eye test-wise Salvy Perez has looked pretty darn competent at 1B!

Ben Clemens: I don’t even remotely believe small sample defensive metrics at first base

Ben Clemens: he seems decent to me but I’ve seen like two games worth

slew(Seattle): Re: Civale, It almost seems like the Guardians said to themselves: “Well, we’ve been developing above average starting pitching, so we can count on it continuing to happen – trade him!”

Ben Clemens: oh 100%

Ben Clemens: although you didn’t add “Now let’s go out and find the best bat-only prospect who doesn’t hit for any power”

>this guy<: In your non-expert or expert opinion, why does it *seem* like so many successful Asian Major League hitters struggle when they come stateside? obviouslty not Ichiro, Matsui, Ohtani, or even SHin Soo Choo I would say. Or to put it differently, why did those guys make hay while Fukudome, Seiya Suzuki, and some others have really not impressed

Ben Clemens: I’m guessing that it’s just random

Ben Clemens: you could say the same about draftees from Arizona STate

Ben Clemens: why have guys like Spencer Torkelson and Alika Williams (first round picks in 2020) struggled while Kole Calhoun and Jason Kipnis exceeded expectations?

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Tampa has come back to earth  quite a bit. Who scares you in the.playoffs more: jays, rays or O’s?

Ben Clemens: Jays I think, you can imagine them just turning out the lights with Gausman and Good Berrios, with a ton of hitting to go with that

Dexter: Has the Chisholm to CF been a success? What exactly is his ceiling?

Ben Clemens: It’s too soon to say, but I’m not optimistic because he’s always been injury prone and that’s accelerated this year

Ben Clemens: Sometimes the wear and tear of center is not good for you

Ben Clemens: In terms of his ability to adapt to center, yeah, his routes and reactions have improved markedly

Ben Clemens: I remember watching an April game where Keith Hernandez was shocked by how bad his jumps were

Ben Clemens: and now he looks a lot better

Ben Clemens: but he can’t stay on the field

slew(Seattle): Hit enter before the rest of the comment: …..and I think the Guardians banking on the development pipeline always being full is foolish. They’re a busted pitching prospect or two from being really awful.

Ben Clemens: Yep to this too!

Ben Clemens: I think it’s a risky strategy

Ben Clemens: that said, you probably need to take risky strategies if you’re going to try to make the playoffs every year while running a miniscule payroll

Ben Clemens: I think that the general view that teams should minimize risk is wrong. There are times to embrace risk and try strategies with big payoffs, and I think trading Civale is a good exmaple of that, even if I don’t love Manzardo as a return

Ben Clemens: likewise the Rays were in a great spot to reduce risk by adding Civale

Ben Clemens: I think of that trade as a risk transfer, the Rays were willing to damp volatility and the Guardians probably want a little

Ben Clemens: how many years of some slap hitters and Jose Ramirez can one team handle?

Henceforth: Will Tink Hence be on the opening day roster for the cards next season? If so what are your expectations for his performance?

Ben Clemens: I do not think he will be

Ben Clemens: largely because I think they want to manage his innings

Ben Clemens: He’s only thrown 66 this year, he’s not gonna suddenly throw 180 next year

>this guy<: That’s fair I just didnt know if there was “a thing” they are not doing/doing

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah…. nothing springs to mind

Ben Clemens: It used to be the case that velocity was meaningfully lower in NPB but that’s been less true recently

Stephen: Not a question but adding on] the best thing about teams like the Mets being out of it is how cheap the tickets have gotten. My brother is in town with his family and you can get pretty good seats for under $30 including fees and my niece and nephew are too young to care that the Mets traded away all their good players. But for my personal experience, I don’t enjoy going to games when the Yankees are bad and aren’t expecting to win.

Ben Clemens: That was not hte best thing when I had a 20-game ticket package, b/c I liked reselling the big games and getting two worse games for my money and that was tough when they sucked

Ben Clemens: an ebbing tide lowers all boats

Ben Clemens: but yeah, it’s great if you’re not living and dying with the team’s chances

Guest: The Guardians are good at developing pitchers. The Giants are good at super-platooning. The Astros are good at data to find pitchers. The Red Sox are good at____?

Ben Clemens: I think they’re pretty good at getting the most out of the roster they have

Ben Clemens: they fit together some unlike parts seemingly pretty well every year

Sam: Do the tigers stretch Skubal out to 6innings this year? Have you looked at his home/road splits? Guy must have the comfiest bed in the Detroit suburbs

Ben Clemens: I hadn’t but now I have, dang yeah

Ben Clemens: He should be a Serta (or Purple or whatever) spokesperson

Ben Clemens: or do the Mookie Betts thing where he travels with a ton of stuff so that he can regulate his body more

>this guy<: Re Red Sox are good at getting most out of their roster- does that make them the ALE Brewers?

Ben Clemens: If it weren’t for the Rays, yes

bb: does managing a young pitchers workload have any actual proof of working?  or is it just “that seems like something that would be a good idea, lets do that”

Ben Clemens: I am definitely not following the cutting edge of research here. I think it is definitely true that huge increases in workload are riskier than gradual ramp-ups

Ben Clemens: but the whole idea of bubble wrapping someone is at odds with the fact that pitching is inherently dangerous

Ben Clemens: like, for your arm

Board Game Enjoyer: CJ Abrams – is there a change or two to point at for why he’s been red hot lately?  Is it as simple as “he was 21 last season, give him some time”?

Ben Clemens: nothing stands out to me

Ben Clemens: I mean, I think this is kinda who he is, there’s not really much more power to get to, and I don’t think he’s ever going to walk much

Ben Clemens: but he can hit

RTJ: The Mrs. was watching a game with me and asked me a question I’m ashamed to admit I was befuddled by: Why are there no female umpires in the MLB (at least to my knowledge)?

Ben Clemens: I mean…. I think the answer is just that sports are really sexist?

Ben Clemens: why aren’t there more female sportswriters, or commentators? why does Jessica Mendoza get slammed when A Rod gets a pass on a relative basis?

Ben Clemens: Why does MLB shop consistently have 23 options for stuff for men and two for women?

Ben Clemens: I will say, it’s getting better. I got my wife a really nice Giants sweater (from the Erin Andrews collection, which apparently exists) this year

Ben Clemens: That was not an option a few years ago

DetroitBeisbolKats: How bad did Detroit blow the trade deadline?  ERod and relievers to move and only got rid of Lorenzen.  Also, why dont they kick tires on AAAA guys like Hiura or Adell? Not like the team is competing anytime soon and might get lucky like JD Martinez fix.

Ben Clemens: It was not great! Largely the keeping relievers thing, the biggest error in the E Rod fiasco was just that they didn’t take more time

Ben Clemens: like, do that two days before the deadline and you can pivot

The Batman: Is it possible that the Mariners can only be truly good if their entire fanbase turns on them? I know this isn’t true, but sometimes it seems like they need to be a “nobody believes in us!” team to make it work. Also: MOP.

Ben Clemens: the team the city needs, not the one it deserves

Danny: any thoughts on the current positional adjustments? I’ve seen a few interesting pieces suggesting that the spread is too big and the 1b/dh penalty should be lowered

Ben Clemens: That is my suspicion as well. When I tried to replicate the numbers by looking at position switchers in the majors  using OAA data, I got answers that were surprisingly clsoe to the adjustments we use

Ben Clemens: But with a huge grain of salt: 1b/other position switchers are just rare and weird

Ben Clemens: and DH, I mean, that’s very hard to handle

Ben Clemens: I just have a hard time believing the number of runs in the 1b/DH adjustments particularly

Ben Clemens: Alright, this has been a long and fruitful chat, though I wish there were more gaming/cooking questions, I guess I’ve gone too mainstream

Ben Clemens: Something to aspire to next time

Ben Clemens: I’m off to go eat some doubanjiang and vinegar marinated tofu

Ben Clemens: And then play a board game tonight

Ben Clemens: Gotta stay on brand

Ben Clemens: Have a great week, everyone, talk to you again next week