Big Series, Bigger Series
Most of the attention in baseball tonight will fall squarely on the Tampa Bay-New York match-up, where CC Sabathia will take on David Price, with the winner of the game holding sole possession of first place in the AL East. It is a big match-up with quite a few playoff implications on the line. If either team can pull off a series sweep, they’ll put themselves in a great position to win their division and likely finish with the best record in the league, which means a first round date with the Rangers instead of the Twins. Neither of those teams are pushovers, but given Josh Hamilton’s health, that’s almost certainly a better match-up right now.
The reality is that the series in Tampa won’t decide a playoff spot. Both of those teams are headed for October baseball, as the loser of the AL East will almost certainly win the Wild Card. While they want to win the division, neither team’s season is hanging in the balance. So, while it’s a big series, there’s a bigger one out west.
90 minutes later, the San Diego Padres will kick off their series in Colorado against the surging Rockies, winners of 10 straight. The Padres lead in the NL West is down to percentage points, and Colorado only stands 1 1/2 games out of first place. Both of these teams have a real chance to win their division, but both also trail the Atlanta Braves in the Wild Card race. It is likely that one of these teams will be sitting at home when the playoffs begin, and because of how closely the races over in the Senior Circuit are, the playoff teams will probably squeak in with just a win or two more than the ones whose seasons end after 162 games.
This San Diego-Colorado match-up has enormous ramifications for what we’re going to see in October. A Padres sweep puts the Rockies back on life support. San Diego’s season won’t end in the next few days, but the last thing they need after a prolonged slump is to get whooped by a surging division opponent. If the Rockies take the series, and especially if they sweep, the Padres will need to find some late season magic in order to keep their miracle season alive.
Cory Luebke vs Jeff Francis isn’t quite as sexy as the Price-Sabathia tilt in the AL, but that’s the game with big implications tonight. If you have the ability to watch either game, I highly suggest watching the two Western teams square off. You’ll see Tampa Bay and New York in the playoffs, and you might even see them play each other again. You almost certainly won’t see both Colorado and San Diego in October, and the series that begins tonight will go a pretty good ways to determining which of those two teams gets to keep on going after the regular season ends.
In appreciation of the magnitude of the games tonight, we’ll be hosting a special live blog for anyone who wants to discuss the games as they happen. We’ll kick that off at 7:00 and leave it open through the end of the Rockies-Padres game. This is when baseball really gets fun – come enjoy it with fellow FanGraphs readers.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Padres lead in the NL West isn’t half a game, it’s zero games. They are in a virtual tie, but ahead in the loss column.
the article correctly states: “Padres lead in the NL West is down to percentage points”
The feedback process works!
Why does it seem as though the Padres and Braves, both virtual locks for the playoffs about 3 weeks ago, will miss the playoffs? Just seems that both teams have completely run out of gas. And I also believe PART of that can be attributed to their god-awful fans. Neither team has sold out a home game in the last 2 months, and the only time a bunch of people show up is when they are playing a popular opponent who pack their stadium for them…
That brings me to a general question: Who has the WORST fans in MLB? I think its the Braves and it ain’t even close. Yeah the Pads and Rays are winning and not drawing any fans either, but those teams have never won a championship. The Braves had a title in ’95 and are just a few years removed from 14 straight playoff appearances – GET YOUR SHlT TOGETHER ATLANTA!
The Braves attendance this season (given their 4 year absence from playoffs, Heyward, and Bobby’s last year) is disappointing, but it has been the hottest summer on record. Also, I think prolonged success in non-major/tourist markets is not a recipe for excellent attendance. Fans grow accustomed to success and pennant races are no longer quite as exciting.
Braves sold 51,000 tickets 2 days ago. I think that’s a sellout.
Just about everything about Atlanta is really going against it. Worst traffic in the country, the majority of people living here are transplants, the humidity also probably can’t be counted out (It pretty much stays ~90 all night long). Obviously other cities have these problems but Atlanta is really a fairly “small market” to begin with (32 US cities have larger population).
The Braves have average attendance regardless of their record, averaging between 29 and 33 k over the last 10 years. Not sure how you can really argue that if how good a fanbase is = how many butts are in seats that Atlanta is really worse than San Diego and Tampa Bay, who we’re outselling by 4 thousand tickets and 8 thousand tickets more per game.
Come on, are you serious?
Atlanta’s metropolitan area is the 9th largest in the US, basically the same as Washington DC and Miami FL.
Not small market.
Their problems start with the traffic and end with there being no reliable and accessible mass transit that residents can take to the stadium. Throw in the temperature, and there you go.
There was an article on here a few months ago that showed the ratio of number of fans per game/number of fans watching on tv per game. I think Atlanta was in the top 3 of that. They have fans, its just not easy to get to the stadium.
Giants fans weep. As they should.
Basketball fans agree with the sentiments against Atlanta fans. Then again, with that front office, I would be unhappy with my basketball team there too.
Thanks for the post. I’ve been waiting for the day when Fangraphs would transition into playoff speculation/coverage rather than individual player analysis and there is certainly no better day to start doing it.
It was amazing to me to watch the Padres/Giants games this past weekend and hear the ‘Let’s go Giants’ chant when the G’s were batting. I thought that only happened at Red Sox away games not in NY. I’d estimate that Petco had about 15 – 20% Giants fans, and they were LOUD. Couldn’t feel good to be a Padres player in those circumstances.
As a G’s fan, I hope the Padres put the Rox back on life support. I’m more worried about the Rockies than the Padres at this point. Rox always seem to turn it on in September..