Brad Johnson FanGraphs Chat – 11/3/16

Brad Johnson: Good afternoon folks. For those wondering where Eno is…well he didn’t tell me.

Bork: First August, now Eno? You better be good, Johnson.

Brad Johnson: I think you’re in good hands. Maybe. I don’t know. (I did this once a week for RotoGraphs during the season)

Erik: So was that possibly the greatest baseball game ever, considering the context? It was only the 4th extra inning game 7 in world series history, and I’m pretty sure the others didn’t involve a 108-year old title drought.

Brad Johnson: Yes, let’s all begin by agreeing it was a fantastic game, all the more so because it looked like a spectacularly unfantastic game for at least half of it

Q-Ball: One takeaway from this series: Pitchers have limits, and it may be better to trust a few more to get through a series. Chapman and Kluber were clearly overworked.

Brad Johnson: No kidding. I’m glad managers decided to scrap the old bullpen management cheat sheet, but the new one was only a step in the right direction

Brad Johnson: they’re thinking about the problem correctly now, but the solution they came up with is to break their best arms

Brad Johnson: hopefully not permanently

Donnie: Now that the Cubs have broken the curse, which NL team with the longest championship drought will win a World Series first — Brewers or Padres?

Brad Johnson: I like the cut of Milwaukee’s jib, but they have to squeeze by the Cubs somehow. I feel sorry for that entire division.

Brad Johnson: Well I don’t feel sorry for the Cardinals. They had their billion years of consistent success

RABBINICAL COLLEGE GUY: Can you see the Cubs and Indians in the World Series next year? Why or why not?

Brad Johnson: Well I think it’s pretty clear the Cubs are set up to do this over and over again. The Indians certainly have a winnable division, but they got here on some vets having career years

Brad Johnson: It feels slightly reminiscent of the 2013 Red Sox

JJP: Are you a beer fan too? If so, what should I drink while I wait 5 months for baseball that counts?

Brad Johnson: I am a fan of beer but I am not a connoisseur like Eno

Brad Johnson: I know when it’s good and I know when it’s not

Brad Johnson: I’d go for PBR over the winter to reflect the bleak mood of a baseball-less existence

Lure of the Animal: Is Eno hungover??

Brad Johnson: You haven’t met Eno, have you? Pretty sure the hangover is permanent

Matt: You think Bryant or Rizzo ends up the better player by the end of their career? and how long does Bryant keep up his plus Base running \ and defensive production?

Brad Johnson: I’m going with Bryant for this.

Brad Johnson: 1. I think he’s the flat out better player now (by a slim margin)

Brad Johnson: 2. He’s more flexible and versatile

Brad Johnson: 3. Part of Rizzo’s skill set is getting hit by a billion pitches. That will eventually come back to bite him

Zonk: While I think Maddon was out-managed by Francona, I feel Tito left Kluber in way too long, and I also question lifting Crisp for Martinez before they had a lead. That last AB looks different with Crisp, who was swinging the bat well. Thoughts?

Brad Johnson: When you’re dealing with quality managers like Tito and Joe, there’s going to be a few times where they look like they’re overthinking their moves

Brad Johnson: if it works, it’s all part of their genius

Brad Johnson: the problem is, if a guy has a reputation as a managerial savant, they’re going to have SOME moves bite ’em in the ass

Brad Johnson: i.e. Martinez

Brad Johnson: ideally, the Indians would have a defensive replacement who can also hit instead of Martinez

Michael: How should the Angels proceed this offseason?

Brad Johnson: Let’s get away from the Cubs for a minute

Brad Johnson: So the Angels are in a painful little corner of hell

Brad Johnson: no farm system, bunch of old guys, thin roster, and demigod Mike Trout.

Brad Johnson: With Trout in his prime, I think you say “screw it” to the lux cap, keep hiring passable role players, and hope the pitching doesn’t implode every single year

Brad Johnson: the alternative is to ask a team like the Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, or Yankees for all their base in exchange for Trout. And I don’t think it would work.

DJ : With the season now ending, I’m thinking about the Winter Meetings and how to impress front office employees. I was thinking of bringing in a portfolio of written work (my strong suit) but was unsure of what people would find extremely impressive. Thoughts?

Brad Johnson: I haven’t been there myself, although I plan to make the trip this year. I think what you’ve suggested certainly makes sense.

Brad Johnson: From what I hear, practically nobody finds an entry level job at the meetings. Your goal is to make the people you talk to remember you as somebody who’s friendly, earnest, and likely to bust their ass for minimum wage

Brad Johnson: Then stay in touch with them via email or whatever form of communication they hand out

Brad Johnson: but not in an annoying way

Brad Johnson: I won’t lie, it’s an uphill battle. It’ll help if you have good math skills

Brad Johnson: Ok, back to the games

Michael: Do the Cubs look to add starting pitching via trade this year?

Brad Johnson: Why?

Brad Johnson: I mean, maybe they do, but they have so much of it on hand already

Brad Johnson: They probably want some MiLB depth. Jason Marquis types.

Ampersand: Secret star of the World Series: David Ross, who batted .400/.429/1.429

Brad Johnson: What a way to go out. When he had the error and wild pitch inning, I felt bad for him

Brad Johnson: then he hit the solo shot to redeem himself

HappyFunBall: Theo signed a 5/50 extension about a month ago. Where would he fit on the <i>player</i> trade value list?

Brad Johnson: If memory serves, I think we decided he was equal to Martin Prado

Dubslow: I think most people would agree that SP after 2017 is the Cubs biggest weakness longterm wise, hence the question

Brad Johnson: Got it.

Brad Johnson: I’m sure Theo will explore the options, but this is not really the right time to be finding starting pitchers

Erik: If Trout doesn’t get traded, will it be because no team is willing to meet a reasonable asking price for him, or because the Angels have an (understandably) unreasonably high asking price?

Brad Johnson: I think it’s the former with a peppering of the latter

Brad Johnson: I constructed some sample deals for Trout in the past. You’re talking a package like Moncada, Bradley, Devers, Benintendi, and a couple others. Trout’s amazing, but he also has so much non-baseball potential as a marketing asset

Brad Johnson: We like to think of teams as maximizing for wins, but they’re really maximizing for dollars

Brad Johnson: it just happens that the two are closely related enough that we’re not slapped in the face with it

jon: Ross goes from concussed to homering off Andrew Miller in 5 minutes. Impressive way to go out.

Brad Johnson: when I saw him flop backwards, I felt so bad for him. Thought for sure he was concussed. Replay shows he just lost his balance

TengoPreguntas: He found Montgomerry for relatively cheap

Brad Johnson: That was a coup.

ohioastrosfan: What does McCutchen fetch? I would love him with Houston. Is there a package not including Bregman that works?

Brad Johnson: Definitely. Bregman is much more valuable than McCutchen

Brad Johnson: The Astros have enough bullets to find a deal

Ritt Momney: Is there another historical precedent/player to comp a Trout trade? I feel like he’s just *too* valuable for anyone to pay his price (barring a down season, injury, etc).

Brad Johnson: Not really. They all pre-date the analytic era

Brad Johnson: Like Babe Ruth

Bob: What do you think the Cubs biggest pressing question is this winter? I’d wager to say the bullpen. Maybe adding someone of the ilk of Ziegler, Hunter, or Tazawa? Also would like to see if they hang on to Wood.

Brad Johnson: So I think they get out from under Montero, find a new third string catcher (A.J. Ellis?), and deal with that bullpen.

Brad Johnson: How the chips fall for the pen depend on if they go with Chapman, Jansen, or Rondon as the closer

Brad Johnson: I’m thinking they only sign one guy

ohioastrosfan: How much does Lourdes Gurriel get as a FA?

Brad Johnson: I can’t say I have a feel for this, but I’ll guess Moncada money (including the amount paid as tax)

Bart: Putting the cart before the horse here, but how many Cubs on this World Series team are ultimately going to Cooperstown?

Brad Johnson: I’ll say 1.5 because it’s deceptively hard to get there

Brad Johnson: I grew up a Phillies fan and I would have sworn Utley and Rollins were HoF players.

Brad Johnson: Utley has a small chance but Rollins isn’t anywhere close

Mike B: Do the Indians need to resign Napoli or should they part ways after what looked like his age caught up to him the last two months of baseball

Brad Johnson: It feels SOOOO much like Aubrey Huff

Brad Johnson: by that, I mean the Indians need to step back, take a breath, and objectively project what they expect

Brad Johnson: I think they’ll find there are better ways to use their resources

Bruce: Odds Mccann is on the Yankees next season?

Brad Johnson: Pretty low

Brad Johnson: There’s certainly room for him if a good trade offer doesn’t appear

Brad Johnson: but McCann is too good to be a mostly DH

Brad Johnson: waste of resources

Dominik: how much luck was involved in building the cubs? epstein is probably the best at his job and he got multiple top 10 picks but almost all of the top prospects were either a hit (Russell, schwarber, bryant) or decent (baez, soler). no real busts (unless you count minor prospects like olt) and also they got a lot of unexpected production out of non top prospects (Hendricks, Contreras, arrieta). epstein did a great job but to construct such a team everything needs to fall in place, right?

Brad Johnson: There’s a lot of luck involved in getting a roster like this to come together. But Epstein also made his own luck by laying the right bets

Brad Johnson: should he have been able to acquire Russell at all? Probably not, so he jumped on it when offered

Brad Johnson: Arrieta actually was a top prospect, the Orioles are just terrible at developing certain types of pitchers

Brad Johnson: Epstein and his team really deserve credit for taking that gamble.

Brad Johnson: It was super lucky that the Astros took Mark Appel over Kris Bryant

Moog: Can we all just take a moment to appreciate Rajai Davis? I love role players, and particularly journeymen who happen to do something great at the perfect time. Dave Roberts, Craig Counsell, etc. If Cleveland had won, Davis would be in that group.

Brad Johnson: Rajai will be listed as a Game 7 hero in my postseason write up for the THT Annual

Brad Johnson: Also, do buy the THT Annual – available sometime in the future

ohioastrosfan: Since we’re on Trout, I figured that George Springer, Alex Bregman, Francis Martes, Kyle Tucker, and Derek Fisher would be close-ish?

Brad Johnson: Yea, that’s getting most of the way there

Brad Johnson: still feels like it’s missing one high quality name

Dubslow: Yeah, the montgomery deal is exactly the sort of thing they’ll be looking to replicate going forward, IMO

Brad Johnson: I think every team is constantly looking to replicate that

Brad Johnson: At least for the context of the offseason, it’s going to be hard to find that kind of situation

Brad Johnson: the trade deadline offers different opportunities

Jim: Hey Brad, in the event Cespedes does not come back would Fowler make sense for the Mets?

Brad Johnson: Fowler makes more sense than Cespedes

End The Drought: With the volatility of prospects, is there a possibility Trout could be had for a package of proven, youngish players. Bumgarner, Belt, and Strickland or Law; Posey moves to first. Would, could, should it happen.?

Brad Johnson: Could it happen, sure. Teams make bad moves. I think you’d have to be a special kind of dumb to take a high mileage pitcher as the primary piece for Trout

Brad Johnson: And you’d still need to double your offer somehow. The Giants just aren’t a fit.

Brad Johnson (ex quarterback): How many wins is Buxton worth if he has a 100 wRC+ in 2017?

Brad Johnson: 3.5 to 4.5 if my mental math is right

Minty: As a Bucco fan, what would I hope for from Houston?

Brad Johnson: I assume this is referring to McCutchen

Brad Johnson: maybe something headlined by Joe Musgrove?

Brad Johnson: I’ll say Musgrove, Teoscar Hernandez, and a projectable lottery ticket

Dominik: regarding trout: do they have to trade him below market value at some point to have a chance to rebuild at all?

Brad Johnson: No. You ride that horse into the ground

Brad Johnson: That changes when Trout’s about 2 years from FA an unwilling to re-sign

W: Does last night increase, decrease, or not affect the chances of a Dexter Fowler resigning

Brad Johnson: I doubt it affects the decision

Brad Johnson: he returned in the first place because he wanted to. Either that’s still true and the Cubs make room, or they tell him it’s time to go seek his fortune elsewhere

Ja: How much of the cub’s success is it fair to attribute to Theo?

Brad Johnson: I’m not sure how much I’d attribute to only Theo, but the new management regime is mostly responsible

Clucker: Is there a stat to measure total game value? Where does this rank???

Brad Johnson: it’s complicated.

Brad Johnson: I’m going to offer a hot take now

Brad Johnson: Game 7 was a great game. It also wasn’t one of the top 20 games of 2016.

Cinny: Does a Matz or Wheeler for Inciarte trade make sense?

Brad Johnson: I think so, provided the Mets can prove either pitcher is healthy

Brad Johnson: which they really can’t during the offseason

DN: Thor for Moncada and Benintendi. Who says no? Also how close is it?

Brad Johnson: If I’m the Red Sox, I’d only be willing to offer Benintendi and some second tier stuff. Pitchers are a luxury good

Brad Johnson: The Sox aren’t so stacked that they can afford to offer elite hitting prospects for a seemingly risky arm

Q-Ball: Cubs don’t ditch Montero. Clubhouse leader, and mentor to Contreras. He would willingly accept a Ross-type role.

Brad Johnson: I don’t disagree with Montero fitting in, but it’s hard to carry a third string catcher with questionable catching skills (particularly with base runners)

Brad Johnson: And Ellis isn’t just a mentor, he’s a second manager (hence why I suggested him)

Moog: Whenever I see example packages for Trout such as you just put together, they always make me feel like the guy just can’t be traded for. I can’t imagine the Red Sox trading Moncada, Benintendi, and Devers for anybody, even prime Babe Ruth or WAR equivalent, because it seems so much safer to have that value spread out among multiple guys than to tie it up in one guy who could get injured or leave as a free agent.

Brad Johnson: I don’t disagree. There are only a few clubs with enough asset concentration to even consider it. Most would end up exactly like the Angels if they traded for him

Reginald Denton III: The amazing thing (well, yet another one!) about last night was that every Cub who screwed up at some point last night (Baez, Ross, even Chapman) came back and redeemed themselves later.

Mike: Here’s a thought: what about Trout to the Cubs? If they let Fowler walk, what gets it done? Schwarber and Almora with Soler or Baez?

Brad Johnson: spitballing…Schwarber, Hendricks, Baez, Happ, and some other stuff

Concerned White Sox Fan: How would you proceed this offseason as the White Sox’s GM given the team across town is showing you up?

Brad Johnson: So I absolutely keep Sale and Quintana

Brad Johnson: My plan is to replicate the Indians success. Compile a bunch of role players and hope they have career years

Ja: How much does chapman get in FA?

Brad Johnson: so much

Brad Johnson: So I’m a little crazy. If I were running a team like the Phillies, I would be chasing him as a starter

Brad Johnson: And that’s a nine figure offer

Brad Johnson: I’ll throw $85MM out as a guess for his contract as a reliever

CamdenWarehouse: Oh, no! The Phillies declined Howard’s options. What is the world coming to?

Erik: Montero, Contreras, and Schwarber leave the Cubs covered at catcher, right? Or do you expect Schwarber to be outfield only from now on?

Brad Johnson: Schwarber will play some behind the plate if for no other reason than the roster is too deep

twinmh: We get interested in a pitcher when he moves to Pittsburgh or Cleveland, because Searage and Callahan are wizards. Is there something similar going on for batters in Arizona? Goldschmidt and Pollock were not that highly regarded in the minors, Segura was left for dead in fantasy circles, all the FG writers hated Tomas when they saw him in Arizona 18 months ago. Lamb, Drury, Peralta ….

Brad Johnson: Lamb and Drury were supposed to be pretty good, Pollock’s skill set is often under-appreciated (see Blackmon, Charlie), and Goldy looked like a strikeout king while developing

Brad Johnson: I don’t know that these are development wins

Brad Johnson: I suspect we systematically undervalue DBacks prospects

Game 7: Sale for rodgers, dahl, freeland and party’s contract?

Brad Johnson: Might be 80% of the way there. But I wouldn’t do that as the Rockies

Brad Johnson: you can never be sure a pitcher can pitch at Coors

Brad Johnson: they should almost never pay premium prices for pitching

Erik: With context, game 7 was obviously the best game though, right? And easily one of the best all time?

Brad Johnson: yea, the context made it special. I agree.

FelixHolt: Is there any hope for small market teams? Dave’s article about the Cubs’ “dynastic” future somehow made me, a Cleveland fan, feel even worse this morning than when I watched the game itself.

Brad Johnson: Well run rich teams are going to be the next MLB crisis

Brad Johnson: In the past, rich teams have mostly lit money on fire

Andrew: Did the Mets make a mistake building around SPs rather than position players?

Brad Johnson: Two answers.

Brad Johnson: Yes absolutely, building around pitching is a fools game. You think you have an ironclad rotation and it turns out to be silver painted wax

Brad Johnson: But the Mets also did well. They happened to matriculate a bunch of really good pitchers at the same time. You have to work with the tools you’re handed

Dock Ellis: The best Trout trade I can think of is Trout for Carlos Correa and 3-4 prospects. Thoughts?

Brad Johnson: In theory, you’re on the right track

Brad Johnson: a Trout trade has to include an established, high caliber, cost controlled player in addition to prospects

Dominik: some credit has to get to Ricketts too, eastern executed perfectly but not every big market owner allows a total tear down and basically “tanking” for 3-4 years and losing money in the process. that helped a lot. most big market teams in that situation try to fake competitiveness to sell tickets and TV.

Brad Johnson: That brings up another way that Theo was lucky

Brad Johnson: Demand in the Cubs market is surprisingly inelastic

Brad Johnson: I wonder if finally winning will change that

A cat: So is BOS management irritated enough by Theo’s success that DD is pushed to unload top prospects for stars? I’m talking Verlander, Cabrera, who are rumored to be available, or Grienke, maybe Braun?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think anybody is telling DD what to do in Boston

Brad Johnson: And I expect him to stay the course, looking for sensible upgrade opportunities without opening holes in the roster

Brad Johnson: that means no Sale

Brad Johnson: Braun could fit, although I suspect they’re comfortable with Betts-Bradley-Benintendi as the outfield

Ed: I felt like Allen/Shaw were getting squeezed late in the game, but then realized that it was more likely the case that not having Perez back there was costing them some borderline calls. How much do you think running for Perez wound up costing the Indians in losing him behind the plate? Especially since it felt like Shaw was falling behind in every at bat.

Brad Johnson: I didn’t notice a squeeze. Some close pitches, but they were clearly balls to my eyes. The Martinez swap probably hurt more than running for Perez. Although having Naquin to pinch hit would have been nice too

Dominik: regarding white Sox and compiling role players: that is what they tried the last years

Brad Johnson: exactly

Brad Johnson: it usually doesn’t work

Brad Johnson: sometimes it gets you to the World Series

Erik: What is one thing the Cubs did early in their rebuild that every rebuilding team should copy?

Brad Johnson: there’s no one thing. Not every rebuilder should tear down to the bones. Obviously they should all trade good vets for better prospects (i.e. Russell) but that’s a no brainer

Mike: I think Fangraphs and its readers, being heavily statistics based, can appreciate that Cleveland went from a ~88% chance of winning in 2016 to something like a 20% chance to win over the next 3-4. And that hurts for a Cleveland fan who likes statistics and probabilities.

Dock Ellis: So Trout and Simmons for Correa, AJ Reed, Bregman and two low level lotto tickets. Who’s saying no?

Brad Johnson: The Angels

Moog: I don’t know if I buy the mystique-of-losing notion. A lot of that inelastic demand has to do with Wrigley. This has been true for the Red Sox as well post-2004–ratings drop when the team is bad but attendance is only slightly affected.

Brad Johnson: I don’t know if I buy it either. I just wonder

Erik: How much of the Indians dropping the final three is attributable to their starters all throwing on short rest?

Brad Johnson: short rest seemed to really hurt Tomlin

Brad Johnson: he actually looked pretty good, but he kept throwing 0-2 cookies

Brad Johnson: Kluber wasn’t Kluber last night

Brad Johnson: the stuff was visibly less bendy

Merv Throneberry: Will DeLeon make the LAD rotation or could Anderson, McCarthy a/o Ryu stand in his way?

Brad Johnson: De Leon probably should make the rotation, but LA is going to go depth crazy

Brad Johnson: vets will get the first look

KCH: I have a feeling that Theo will put Arrieta on the market this offseason. Who would be interested?

Brad Johnson: Red Sox? Rangers? Nationals? Dodgers? Mariners?

Dudley: So should the Yanks put for sale signs on anything with a pulse over 26, offer Tanaka at deadline?

Brad Johnson: They’ll have to gauge where they stand. They’re one of the teams that should rebuild without tearing down to the studs

Brad Johnson: we haven’t seen them use their financial might in awhile, but they still have twice the war chest of any team but the Dodgers

britishcub: given mike trout has enough accumulated enough war to earn his whole deal i feel the angels should trade him out of kindness

Brad Johnson: It’s sad he’s stuck on that broken roster

Brad Johnson: maybe they’ll find an Odubel Herrera in the Rule 5

Justin: Trading for Rizzo was the first and, probably, the best move. Traded a time bomb in Cashner, added an AS/MVP-candidate cornerstone player, who also happens to be the team’s leader, in Rizzo. So to answer Erik, I’d say adding a strong, emotionally mature player like Rizzo for essentially a crap shoot.

Brad Johnson: And going back to the Mets question, this is an example of the alternative to building around pitching prospects

Bun: Does Anthony Alford have the potential to be as good as Bradley Jr?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think the bat will be remotely comparable, but the overall production might get up there

Brad Johnson: I see him more as a Kevin Pillar

Mike: Some of these trades for Trout seem crazy. Realistically Trout is a 9-10 WAR player for the next 4 years, right? He only has 4 left on his contract, so you’re looking to get about 38 WAR in return for him plus some extra prospects to gamble. Some of these offers are likely 10-12 WAR in the first year for young players who are still getting better. Are you sure the value is this high?

Brad Johnson: No, I’m not positive.

Brad Johnson: As I noted earlier, Trout offers so much marketing potential

Brad Johnson: So it’s not just about paying for the wins, you also have to pay for the cash money

JGD: Assuming Jacoby Ellsbury is traded this offseason, can you give me your approximation of a reasonable trade?

Brad Johnson: I think the Yankees can trade Ellsbury and half of his contract for approximately nothing. Give me a second to doublecheck my gut

Brad Johnson: Ok, maybe they don’t need to eat a full half of the contract. One-third of it should do (for nothing)

Noel : What moves do giants need to make for you to consider them at minimum a solid bet to at least nab a wc next year?

Brad Johnson: I’d like to see them shore up the bullpen. Overall depth hurt them this year.

Brad Johnson: They’re in pretty decent shape even without a major overhaul

Brad Johnson: Ok, I’m going to start to wind this down. It’s been a pleasure. I’ll do a few more before I go

Ninny: What should the Blue Jays do this offseason? Does it make sense to rebuild? Their farm system is not very good

Brad Johnson: Now that’s a difficult situation

Brad Johnson: If they try to stay competitive, that means dropping money on EE or Bautista

Brad Johnson: in which case they return the same roster less one of them and Saunders

Brad Johnson: since they barely made the postseason in the first place…

Brad Johnson: However, a rebuild is going to be hugely unpopular after the recent success. And that’s a commitment to a good 5 years of pain since the farm system is barren

Brad Johnson: in that division, 5 years can quickly turn into 15 years of noncompetitive rosters

Brad Johnson: So…I might try to walk the line by devoting resources for re-signing EE/Bautista into role players

Brad Johnson: If you can’t tell, I’m a big proponent of hiring role players for fringy rosters

Brad Johnson: I like to give a roster a chance to succeed then pivot accordingly at the deadline

Andrew: So where do the Mets go from here in shifting the emphasis to position players? Or is it too late for this core?

Brad Johnson: It’s too late in my opinion. A trade of Thor or deGrom for a big name position player might help. Those types of deals are rare

Erik: If it was still the norm to trade players for money rather than other players (like the Babe Ruth deal), how much would Trout go for?

Brad Johnson: Last question, and I’ll need a minute…

Brad Johnson: So he costs $119MM

Brad Johnson: I’m estimating his on field value at $240MM including a lot of regression for decline/injury. Could easily exceed $300MM.

Brad Johnson: And I have no methodology for estimating marketing value

Brad Johnson: Let’s just call that $150MM

Brad Johnson: So something like $120MM to $180MM for pure baseball bliss plus however much you value his brand value

ben: Thanks for the long chat! You haven’t directly answered any of my questions, but someone else has asked them as well pretty much verbatim so I am happy. Apparently I’m unoriginal and this chat has multiple Jays fans.

Brad Johnson: glad it worked out. We had a lot of people in here asking questions

Brad Johnson: I assume Eno returns next week. The chat transcript will be up posthaste.

Brad Johnson: I bid you all adieu