Prospect Reports: San Diego Padres

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the San Diego Padres farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)

60 FV Prospects

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded just 5.6% walk rate after trade to San Diego.

Scouting Report
Espinoza got a $1.8 million bonus in 2014 despite his diminutive stature because, despite a lack of height, his arm worked incredibly well and he already showed terrific feel for spin. He was unhittable in the GCL when he debuted stateside, allowing just three earned runs in 40 innings there. He wasn’t as dominant in 2016 and reports of his stuff and performance were a little inconsistent, after he was traded to San Diego for Drew Pomeranz, but this was an 18-year-old dealing with severance from the organization that changed his life and his peripherals were good despite inflated ERAs. By the time instructional league arrived, things had come together and Espinoza was arguably the best pitching prospect throwing during instructs in either Arizona or Florida. He was 95-97 with movement in an abbreviated final instructional-league outing and flashed a plus-plus curveball.

Despite lacking prototypical measurables Espinoza has added velocity as his trunk and torso have thickened. I think he’ll be quite stocky and strong at maturity. The delivery is efficient and explosive but rarely out of control, and Espinoza is smooth and athletic enough to project at least average command at maturity. His arm speed allows for a moving fastball in the 92-96 range during extended outings and he’ll reach the upper 90s. His arm action will lengthen a bit when he throws his changeup, but he has tremendous feel for creating movement on the change and it’s routinely plus. Espinoza had issues with curveball consistency this year but it was fathoms deep and dominant this fall and Espinoza has begun burying it to left-handed hitters more frequently.

Espinoza’s size isn’t an issue for me. Yes, he’s short, but the delivery is easy, he’s athletic and strong and he creates plane and movement on his fastball despite his size. Some are concerned about where the body is going but I consider Espinoza athletic enough to maintain his delivery even if he does get big. He has shown three 70 offerings. If they all mature there, and I think there’s a chance they will, we’re talking about a top-of-the-rotation arm.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 5.0 WAR

55 FV Prospects

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .304/.351/.426 with just 11.3% strikeout rate at Triple-A in 2016. Worth 12 runs above average in 118 Triple-A games in center-field games, per Clay Davenport.

Scouting Report
Margot signed with Boston in 2011 for just $800,000 and coasted through the low minors, tasting High-A as a teenager. He spent time on the disabled list in 2015 with a shoulder injury and was traded to San Diego at the beginning of last offseason as part of a blockbuster package for Craig Kimbrel. He had success on both sides of the ball at Triple-A this year, received a second invite to the Futures Game and made his debut at Petco Park in September.

The defense is big-league ready and projects to plus at maturity. Margot not only has excellent speed but terrific athleticism and feel for his routes and footwork in the outfield. He also has a plus arm. Center fielders across the majors produced a collective .316 wOBA in 2016 and Margot projects to hit better than that, perhaps immediately. He has plus bat speed, his barrel is quick into the zone and he has excellent hand-eye coordination. He projects as a plus hitter. While Margot has average raw power, his in-game swing prioritizes contact and he hits a lot of balls on the ground. It’s possible Margot may learn to elevate the ball more regularly as he matures, and if he does he’ll become a star-level player. But proactive changes to Margot’s hitting approach might backfire and eat away at his ability to make contact. Even if his game power never materializes beyond 8-12 homers per year, this is a plus defender in center field who provides near-leadoff-level contact and on-base ability. Margot is a relatively safe bet to provide above-average daily production.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 13.6 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Produced 36.7% strikeout rate at Low-A.

Scouting Report
Quantrill was seen as one of the 2016 draft’s potential 1.1 candidates but he blew out his arm in March of 2015 and had Tommy John surgery late in that month. Quantrill aimed to come back and pitch for Stanford sometime in 2016 (and teams wanted to see him) but it never materialized. This sparked rumors in the industry that a team had already begun talking to him and asked him to shut down to ensure he’d fall to their pick as teams at the top of the draft would have a hard time justifying the selection of a pitcher who hadn’t pitched in a year. Quantrill was drafted at No. 8 overall and, had he pitched for Stanford and looked the way he did in pro ball after signing, there’s a chance he would have been the first overall pick.

Quantril was 92-96 in the Arizona League and through instructional league, with a plus changeup that he throws to both left and right-handed hitters. It’s a potentially dominant pitch, sold as if by a parasitic insurance salesman by terrific arm speed, only to close the deal with diving movement. Quantrill’s third pitch is a mostly vertically breaking slider in the 82-84 mph range. Its depth and bite varies and it’s really only an average pitch right now, capable of missing bats when it’s located off the plate but not consistently within or beneath the zone. A tremendous amount of Quantrill’s projection relies upon the future of his breaking ball. If it can become a third above-average to plus pitch, then we’re talking about a top-of-the-rotation ceiling here. It’s rare to project liberally on breaking balls, especially from college pitchers, but I think Quantrill’s year off from injury and the fact that’s he’s been tinkering with different breaking balls for a while now allows for more than usual.

Scouts saw fringe command during pro ball but Quantrill lived mostly in and around the zone and was was just barely working back from surgery. I’m comfortable projecting above-average command. He repeats his delivery, which is efficient and well paced. His arm slot creates plane on the fastball and the arm action is actually pretty compact for someone with such long levers. The body looked a little soft during AZL but Quantrill’s frame is good. He’s already been cut open once and the slider is a work in progress so there’s some risk here, but once that slider tightens up it shouldn’t be long before Quantrill’s ready for the upper levels of the minors.

50 FV Prospects

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .306/.336/.557 at Triple-A El Paso in 2016.

Scouting Report
I’m relatively skeptical about Renfroe’s ability to hit. He has a deep load, late trigger and an undeniable, general stiffness and effort about his swing that looks like it’s going to lead to a good bit of swing and miss. Despite that, he’s shown an ability to move the bat around the zone and is especially adept at punishing balls down and in. On paper, he’s cut his strikeout rate throughout the course of his minor-league career, though his walk rate has also seen a precipitous decline since his first full season. This might be a player who succeeds with the bat while bucking some traditional scouting tropes (at least the one I peddle). If that’s the case,then Renfroe is a potential middle-of-the-order bat, because we’re talking about plus-plus raw power here. Renfroe’s batting-practice displays are impressive. During Futures Game BP, he parked a few balls at the foot of the scoreboard that graces PETCO Park’s upper deck in left field. He hits emphatic home runs and does so often, eclipsing the 20-homer mark in each full pro season in which he’s participated.

Even if Renfroe ends up striking out 20-25% of the time, the quality of the contact he does make is likely to be hard, which — along with his average speed — could make for a robust career BABIP. With the strikeouts and lack of walks, there’s a chance Renfroe only reaches base at a .315-.330 clip but there should be enough power to profile despite that. He has a plus arm and should be an average defender in right field at maturity. This is a traditional power-hitting, right-field profile and one that feels relatively safe given the career-long success Renfroe has had, including the unsustainable but impressive deluge of power he showed in his short big-league stint in 2016.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.4 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Didn’t play in any recorded games.

Scouting Report
The best pitcher in the 2016 July 2 crop, Morejon signed for $11 million, essentially costing the Padres $22 million when you factor in the tax they paid on their bonus-pool overage. He made one short start during instructs, sitting 93-96 while flashing a plus change in the low 80s and pitching with an average slider mostly at 77-80 mph. He was shut down due to arm soreness for the rest of instructs but has begun throwing again.

Like Espinoza, Morejon doesn’t have prototypical height but possesses a sturdy, mature frame and a smooth, repeatable delivery (though Morejon’s is less electric). Reports on Morejon as an amateur almost always began with scouts glowing about how advanced he was, both in depth of repertoire and in command of it. We got to see a little of that during his instructional-league appearance, where all three of Morejon’s pitches were as advertised. Without seeing him navigate a lineup several times, though, it’s hard to have an idea where he might start next year and how fast he might move. I think there’s a chance for three above-average pitches and plus command which I think is a No. 2 or 3 type of arm. Risk is inherent in age and occupation.

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Had .182 ISO and 26.5% strikeout in 50-PA taste of Northwest League at age 17.

Scouting Report
The primary return from Chicago in exchange for James Shields early this season, Tatis was already an intriguing prospect late in the spring but continued to improve as the summer went on and now looks like a potential star. He has shortstop actions and a future 70 arm, but he’ll almost certainly need to move to third base eventually as his large frame fills in and he slows down. The combination of the arm, athleticism, hands and actions could lead to plus-plus defense at third base, though, and with more mass will come more power. Tatis has good bat speed and some natural leverage in his swing and could have plus raw power at maturity. He may never tap into it, though. The swing is noisy, with lots of independently moving parts and Tatis’ contact issues are exacerbated by the length of his limbs and his propensity to be way out in front of offspeed stuff. I have a future 50 on the bat, which is pretty aggressive considering where Tatis is at right now, but he’s still just 17 and has done nothing but exceed the expectations placed upon him as an amateur since arriving. If all the tools actualize, he’s a star. Of course, at just 17 and with hefty swing-and-miss issues, he’s also quite a risk.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.9 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Cut walk rate from 7.7% in 2015 to 4.5% in 2016.

Scouting Report
Nix looks like he might end up having the best career of the three pitchers whom Houston selected but then failed to sign back in 2014. To review: top overall pick Brady Aiken failed his physical, negotiations with the team became strained and he didn’t sign, resulting in the loss not only of Aiken but also the bonus-pool allotment associated with Aiken’s pick, which Houston needed to sign Nix and current San Francisco pitching prospect Mac Marshall to the overslot bonus amounts to which they’d agreed. (Aiken agreed to underslot money before his physical.) Doesn’t baseball’s draft sound fun? Nix, who was committed to UCLA, was locked out of his scholarship there after he filed a grievance with the backing of the player’s union, so he diverted his career to IMG Academy in Florida. He was drafted in the third round by San Diego in 2015.

Nix had a tremendous 2016 both on paper and between the chalk lines, where he improved his repertoire top to bottom. Nix’s fastball sits 92-94 and will touch 96 with average movement and plane. His fastball command took a step forward this year and, while not yet surgical, he can at least dictate east and west right now and throw a high percentage of strikes. He also has mature command of his upper-70s curveball, a consistently average offering that flashes plus. It’s often a true 12-6 curveball, though Nix will also tilt it away from righties. He can throw it for strikes early in counts and bury it beneath the zone when he’s ahead. It could be a plus pitch at maturity. His changeup, which leans more heavily on good arm speed and velocity separation than it does movement, will flash above average. Some scouts prefer the changeup’s projection to the curveball’s.

He’s just 20 but Nix has already grown into his body quite considerably and comps physically to Jon Lieber. He repeats a very simple, direct delivery and has a good arm action. He looks like an inning-eating, mid-rotation horse who has a chance to be a true No. 3 starter if both secondaries reach their potential peaks. Of note: Nix was diagnosed with spondylolisthesis when he was 11 and spent a few years away from baseball as an adolescent. It was corrected with surgery.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.8 WAR

45 FV Prospects

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded 42.1 innings, 5 walks, 71 strikeouts, and 1 Tommy John procedure.

Scouting Report
Paddack went straight from Marlins extended spring training all the way to Low-A in May and was untouchable as soon as he set foot in Greensboro. He strung 15 hitless innings together in late June before he was traded to San Diego for Fernando Rodney. He promptly broke and had Tommy John in August. Pre-injury Paddack feasted on Low-A hitters with a Bugs Bunny changeup, polished command and a low-90s fastball that played up due to plane and extension. Paddack was old for his draft class (he was 19 and a half at the time of the draft) which was probably part of why he fell so far, but he remains physically projectable at a broad shouldered 6-foot-4. There’s a chance he adds to his 90-94 mph fastball as he ages. Paddack’s projection is limited by a lack of a truly dominant breaking ball. Though Paddack has improved the depth of his breaking ball, it lacks consistent bite and shape and really only projects to average. He has the same mid-rotation projection he did mid-year, but is one surgery riskier than he was at that time.

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
None. Only saw stateside game time during instructional league.

Scouting Report
While some of the other hitters whom San Diego signed on July 2 arguably have more upside, Rosario’s performance on the back fields this Fall was the most impressive and I think he has a chance for five average-or-better tools. Rosario got $1.85 million in July and was viewed as a bat-first corner outfielder who’d probably hit enough to make up for a lack of physical/power projection. Here in Arizona he not only looked likely to remain in center field but he could also be an excellent defender there, with the requisite range and feel for the position complemented by a 6 arm.

At the plate, Rosario’s approach was frustratingly patient for those of us trying to get as much video as possible of his swing, but his selectivity was impressive. Despite some issues with timing, Rosario’s bat speed, feel for the barrel, wrist strength and hand-eye were all as advertised, and I do think he’ll be a plus hitter one day. The frame has more projection than I anticipated and I think he’s going to hit for average game power at maturity, cranking out 18-22 home runs annually. That kind of power output from a player who also makes lots of contact and plays center field creates the makings of a potential star. If Rosario fills out, slows down more than I anticipate, and has to move to a corner, his bat will still profile there and that would probably mean he’s grown into more power than I’m currently projecting. He’s at least an average everyday player and potentially much more. Rosario just turned 17 in October and is obviously a risky commodity because of his age and lack of proximity to the majors. I have him ahead of Luis Almanzar, Gabby Arias and other J2 kids because of my confidence in Rosario’s bat, a much bigger question mark for the other teenagers in the org.

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Has allowed just two home runs in 86.2 pro innings.

Scouting Report
Allen missed time in 2016 with elbow soreness but was good when he threw, sitting 91-93 with plane and movement that plays in the zone and touching the mid-90s on occasion. He has a thick, sturdy frame that has matured rather quickly since he was drafted, and Allen is likely carrying more than his listed weight. He has maintained his relatively simple and direct delivery as he’s added the weight, and while his arm action can get a little long and heavy, his command projects to average. Other than his elbow injury this year, all signs point toward an inning-eating, mid-rotation starter here. The body and delivery both look pretty good, the fastball’s effectiveness will outplay its raw velocity because of its movement, and Allen’s curveball and changeup both project as above-average pitches. His mid-70s curveball has solid-average depth and bite and Allen’s ability to both throw it for strikes and bury it underneath bats has progressed. The low-80s changeup’s effectiveness is predicated on movement more than deceptive arm speed, but he’s made significant strides with the pitch since signing. It’s a solid all-around package, with a future plus fastball (that might actually play better than that because of the movement) potential plus curveball, above-average changeup and plenty of strikes. I don’t anticipate Allen will develop surgical command.

Allen was an eighth-rounder in 2015, falling that far due to signability concerns. The Red Sox bought him away from South Carolina for $725,000 and traded him to San Diego in the Craig Kimbrel deal.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.1 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .321/.378.473 at Triple-A in 2016.

Scouting Report
Another part of San Diego’s return from Boston for Craig Kimbrel, Asuaje was in the middle of Fall League play in 2015 when he was traded to the Padres and ended up playing against his new Padre teammates at times because it was too late in the season for him to change AFL teams. He raked all Fall and continued to do so in 2016, as well, when he earned a late-year callup.

Asuaje has great bat-to-ball skills thanks to great hand-eye coordination, a compact stroke with good bat control and the ability to hit the ball to all fields. He’s at least a future plus hitter. Beyond that, there isn’t a whole lot here about which scouts are excited. Asuaje is an average runner and an unspectacular defender at second base, only projecting to average there, as well. He lacks game power and should hit a half-dozen home runs or so at peak, which is well-below the standard at second right now, especially if this year’s power spike at the position is for real. I’m willing to bet heavily on the bat and project Asuaje as a low-end regular but he has very little margin for error.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.9 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Produced .330/.397/.440 slash line and just 6.8% strikeout rate in Cal League at age 19. Was 3.4 years younger than the mean player in that league.

Scouting Report
Essentially a tools clone of Asuaje, at least offensively, Urias has a precocious feel to hit that leads to authoritative and picturesque all-fields contact. He has a slow, well-balanced leg kick that aids in timing as well as weight transfer. The bat is quick and direct to the baseball with a plane geared for line drives and ground balls much more than it is for airborne contact, and it’s hard to project more than 30 game power despite such terrific contact skills. The body lacks projection, so there isn’t much power coming from physical development, either. The rest of the package projects to around average. Urias isn’t a burner and will probably slow down a bit as his squat frame fills out. He’s limited to either second or third base defensively and probably just the former because he lacks big arm strength. He should be average at second, though some scouts think enough of his athleticism and body control to project on the glove a little more aggressively than that.

There’s very little margin for error here because Urias has very little power and projects to play a defensive position that, increasingly, requires it. But his bat-to-ball skills are superlative and teams find ways for guys like this to get at-bats at the big-league level. He projects as a fringe-average regular for me and a low-risk one at that because his track record of hitting is so freakishly impressive.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 5.4 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Nope, he’s 16.

Scouting Report
Arias looks like a lock for shortstop and has a chance to become plus there at maturity if everything comes together. His arm is plus and the body has more projection than I anticipated based on what I heard from international scouts before he signed. He swung the bat well during instructional league, showing average bat speed that I think will tick up as he gets stronger. He was able to make strong contact while keeping his body and swing under control while other prospects his age tend to overswing. I like his chances to hit and potentially rope out 8-12 homers a year while also making plenty of contact and playing a fine shortstop. That’s an above-average everyday player at the very least.

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
None.

Scouting Report
Ona looked a little bigger and stiffer than was expected when he came to the U.S. but still showed solid power and feel for contact during instructional league. Barring a complete physical transformation (which I suppose isn’t impossible considering how volatile Cuban bodies have been in recent years), he’s destined for left field, which means he’s going to have to hit and hit for some power. He’s short to the ball, his wrists are pretty strong through contact and I think we’ll see plus raw power at maturity. The primary thing for which I’ll be looking from Ona next spring is more flexibility in his lower half, which I think will allow him to make better contact in general but especially on balls down in the zone. If that happens (or he makes some other adjustment that allows for better contact), then I think Ona will be an average everyday player with a chance to be a tick better if the power really plays in games. He’s a rather volatile prospect, especially for a 20-year-old, but the physical tools for success are already here; it’s just a matter of showing them consistently, which Ona hasn’t been able to do, as he’s had very little game action even dating back to his days in Cuba. The Padres gave him a $7 million bonus in July.

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded 12 strikeouts in 12 Arizona League innings.

Scouting Report
Thompson’s selection in the 2016 draft’s third round completed an odd trinity for San Diego, who used three of their top five picks on injured, high-upside pitchers. Thompson would have almost certainly been a first-round pick had he not missed his senior year (except for a short appearance in a playoff game) recovering from Tommy John surgery. Thompson was up to 94 before his injury, with a projectable body and feel for both a breaking ball and changeup. The Padres gave him $1.7 million to sign, about $1 million above slot. Based on how he looked in the AZL and during instructional league, they may have found themselves a gem. He was 88-91 in his first pro appearance but he’s added velo over the last few weeks and was up to 94 with movement toward the end of instructional league. His changeup will flash plus. Thompson mimics his fastball’s arm speed when he throws it and can generate spectacular movement as well. He’s already throwing to both left- and right-handed hitters. The breaking ball has depth but its bite is inconsistent and it might only be average at maturity.

At times, Thompson struggles to stay on top of the baseball, which eats away at the plane on his fastball and changeup and generally results in errant pitch location. He has below-average command right now, but the looks pro scouts had were all at a pitcher fresh off a surgery, and I think it’s unfair to have expected much more than that. This is a quintessential prep pitching body and delivery. Thompson has a good arm action, extending and generally repeating his delivery. I think he’ll have starter-worthy command at maturity. It’s important to consider the context in which Thompson was seen late this summer and fall before drawing any conclusion. I think it’s prudent to be skeptical about Thompson’s 92-94 mph velocity holding deep into games and deep into a season, neither of which has been asked of him yet. His position on this list could change dramatically next summer but early indicators are excellent.

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
A .387 BABIP inflated his Arizona League ERA.

Scouting Report
As a rising senior on the summer showcase circuit, Lawson looked like a potential top-15 pick in the next year’s draft. He was loose, athletic, projectable, had a low-90s fastball that was ticking up as the summer went along and had great feel for a big, deep curveball in the 69-72 mph range that was likely to get harder and retain its shape as Lawson matured. He also showed some feel for a slider and changeup. The next spring, Lawson’s delivery went backwards, his stuff ticked down and then he stopped throwing due to an injury. His high-school coach wouldn’t elaborate as to the type of injury, leading to speculation about both (a) the existence of a severe injury or (b) the total absence of an injury at all. This ambiguity did more to hurt Lawson than help. There was talk of an oblique injury as well as a lat injury, and it looked like Lawson might end up at Arizona State if teams were too scared to pay him. The robust nature of San Diego’s draft bonus pool, combined with their underslot agreement with Hudson Potts, allowed for an overslot deal with Lawson, who ended up getting $1.9 million, a full million above slot.

In pro ball, Lawson’s velocity was mostly 92-94 and dropping down into the 88-90 range deeper in starts, his delivery was still less direct to the plate than it was during his showcase summer, and he had some issues repeating it and throwing strikes. His breaking ball is now up in the 74-77 mph range and has more two-plane tilt to it than it did before, although its depth is less consistent. Lawson’s feel for locating it is raw and his arm action can get a little long when he throws it.

Things have certainly gone backwards for Lawson overall in the last year or so, but if you care do dream as I do, he still has a chance to be a No. 3 starter. You just have to squint a little harder to see it, and the health issues from the spring make him especially risky.

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
None.

Scouting Report
Everything that made Almanzar the No. 4 prospect on my J2 board from the summer is still present. The bat speed, bat path, weight transfer and high finish that afforded Almanzar perhaps the most enticing power projection in this year’s J2 crop is all still there, wrapped in a physical package that looks like it’s built to play baseball. Almanzar is likely to move off of shortstop and over to third base, where his actions and arm strength will be assets. He could be plus there at maturity. Almanzar has the physical tools to hit and hit for enough power to profile at third base (and just about anywhere else, for that matter), but without a truly premium defensive home on which to fall back if he comes up short on performance, Almanzar becomes riskier than Arias and thus is ranked beneath him.

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Led Cape Cod League in strikeouts (50 in 39.2 IP) in 2015. Recorded 125 strikeouts in 103 innings this past year as junior at Kent State. Added 37 more in 31 pro innings across three levels.

Scouting Report
If certainty and stability appeal to you as an evaluator, then Lauer would be much higher on your list, as he’s been as reliable as German automobile since his sophomore year at Kent State. He has an effortless delivery that produces a low-90s fastball. It lacks movement but Lauer still has some room for mass on his frame and might add a bit more velocity into his mid-20s. While it lacks life, Lauer works the bottom of the strike zone with his fastball consistently and garners plenty of ground balls when he’s not carving hitters up with a robust array of secondary pitches. Included in the Eric Lauer Variety Pack is an average mid-70s curveball with slurvy two-plane movement, a sharper, horizontal slider in the mid-80s and mid-80s changeup. The slider is the best of those and the only one that projects as an above-average offering at peak, while the changeup is fringe-average but is usually kept down in the zone and is difficult to punish despite its mediocrity. Lauer’s low walk rates are a bit misleading as, while he has above-average control, his command is a bit behind that. When he misses it’s usually down beneath where he can get hurt, but he doesn’t yet have dictatorial control over his repertoire. Without a great changeup or great command it’s hard to see a clear path for success against right-handed hitters, but I think Lauer really only needs one of those two traits to progress to be a complete pitcher. He projects as a No. 4 or 5 starter for me.

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .295/.333/.399 in AZL.

Scouting Report
I became enamored of Potts (then called Hudson Sanchez) at the 2015 Area Code Games, where he looked good defensively at third and short (though the body obviously projected to the former) and hit a 420-foot homer later in the week. Even I didn’t expect him to go in the first round of June’s draft, however, but certain high-profile dominoes fell (or didn’t fall) in such a way that San Diego opted to pop him in the first round and sign him to an underslot deal to facilitate deals with Lawson and Thompson later in the draft.

Potts looked solid during AZL and instructional-league play. He began showing some opposite-field power during intructs, though it was more of the doubles variety than over-the-fence raw. I still think he has a chance to be an impact defender at third base, though he was unspectacular there in pro ball and some scouts think he may move to an outfield corner at some point. Regardless of his future defensive home, Potts will need to hit, and I anticipate future average hit and game power tools.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.5 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Produced average exit velocity of just 83.6 mph in small major-league sample. League average was 89.

Scouting Report
Rondon plays a dynamite shortstop with above-average range, arm and athleticism that lead to some acrobatic plays. He also has plus bat speed. But Rondon’s load is both excessively high and excessively deep (which should have been the tagline for Deep Blue Sea for several reasons you can infer for yourself), which leads to weak contact and tardy swings. He projects as a below-average regular for me by virtue of the fact that he can play an above-average shortstop, but some don’t think the defense is good enough to balance out Rondon’s punchless offensive projection and consider him more of a utility man. That’s still a solid return for the relief combo plate San Diego traded to acquire Rondon from Anaheim.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.6 WAR

40 FV Prospects

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Produced .405 BABIP in 561 plate appearances across two levels in 2016, marking second time Gettys has crossed .400 threshold in pro season. Also recorded 26% strikeout rate.

Scouting Report
Gettys has been trying to shed the tools-goof label since high school. He’s a 60 runner (he’s been 4.2 down the line consistently for me this fall) with a 70 arm and 55 raw power. His range in center field is excellent, but he’s still learning how to communicate with the other outfielders and close out routes on balls successfully. When he arrived in the AZL in 2014, I saw him do nothing but rake. I thought things had come together and the Padres had a quick-moving star on their hands. But Gettys has run into better breaking balls as he’s climbed the minor-league ladder and it has been an issue. He’s swinging and missing at balls in the dirt an awful lot here in the Fall League and it might be too optimistic to project even a 40 hit tool at maturity. Tools like Gettys’ admirable collection are rare and useful even if they’re undercut by issues at the plate. At the very worst, I could see Gettys becoming a Drew Stubbs type of player (though he isn’t that kind of defender yet). If he somehow learns to hit then he’ll be a star, but he hasn’t made much progress there in two full pro seasons despite his best efforts.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.3 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded 78 strikeouts in 51.2 pro innings this year, including 12 in 6.0 Triple-A innings.

Scouting Report
Whoever found Phil Maton deserves a raise. Maton was a 20th-round pick in 2015 out of Louisiana Tech and, while he led Conference USA in strikeouts that year, he was seen as a one- or two-pitch arm with some athleticism but little projection and maybe a middle-relief future. He has exploded through San Diego’s system, skipping Double-A and having success in a few PCL innings this season as a reliever. Maton’s fastball sits 92-95 and plays up because of spin rates up over 2500 rpms. Maton garners an awful lot of awkward swings and misses on fastball up above the strike zone, which I think is indicative of effective spin. I think that, combined with a deceptive delivery, Maton’s fastball plays as plus-plus. His slider is average and he’ll show a cutter and changeup, as well. He projects to middle relief on paper but the results have been so good that I think it’s worth wondering if there’s more than that here.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.9 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
None.

Scouting Report
I saw Miliano during fall instructional-league, where he was 90-92 and touching 94 with downhill plane and locating his fastball to both sides of the plate. He has feel for spinning a fringe to average curveball in the 78-80 mph range. It has promising depth and Miliano showed some ability to locate it, including one well-placed back-door curveball to a left-handed hitter. The body is projectable and athletic, the delivery and arm action are graceful, efficient and repeatable. It was the young man’s first appearance in live game action in a Padres uniform, and I thought he looked poised and excited to compete. Miliano turns 17 on December 22nd, per the DOB provided on San Diego’s instrux roster. I think he’d be a first-round pick if he were eligible for June’s draft and that he might be the coup of the 2016 July 2 class, during which he signed for $450,000.

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Has experienced decline in strikeout rate during rise through the minors, down to 17.6% in 2016.

Scouting Report
Acquired from Seattle in exchange for Joaquin Benoit, De Los Santos was a projectable strike-thrower with a good arm but raw, ineffective secondaries. He remains so, sitting 91-94 and touching 96. He has a middling array of secondaries, his breaking ball especially lacking consistency to the point where scouts have a hard time telling if there are one or two different versions being thrown. De Los Santos need only develop one truly effective secondary to profile as a reliever and he’s just 20 years old with plenty of time for tinkering toward more than that. I’m not willing to give up on the body, control and arm strength just because the pitch development has stagnated for a year.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.0 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded strikeout and walk rates of 29% and 9%, respectively, at Double-A in 2016.

Scouting Report
Lamet sits 91-96 with some deception and downhill plane that stems from his arm slot. It’s a nearly vertical slot created by tilt of the spine. From that slot also comes a plus-flashing slider that is, at times, almost totally vertically oriented, even in the upper 80s. He has below-average command and there’s very little hope for a viable changeup at this point. I think Lamet could be a setup-man type of arm if the command comes along a little bit and a tick is added to his stuff in shorter stints.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.8 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Has produced 4.6% career walk rate.

Scouting Report
Naylor was sent from Miami to San Diego in the Andrew Cashner trade. His draft stock skyrocketed during a late-spring tour with the Canadian Junior National Team and there were rumors he could have been picked as high as 10th overall. He went at 12 and signed under slot for $2.2 million.

He has 70 raw power. He shows it during BP, every once in a while he’ll annihilate a ball in-game that shows just how far he can hit them, but power production hasn’t shown up in games with frequency. I don’t think it’s a bat-speed issue or anything physical; the power is in there, but rather Naylor’s approach doesn’t allow him to get to his power. He’s over aggressive and often swings at ball with which he can’t make contact, let alone drive with authority. I understand why the Padres like Naylor — he’s twitchy for his size and the power is tremendous — but I think his approach could be fatal. He needs to hit a ton to profile because he’s a first-base-only prospect who isn’t especially good there. Scouts don’t like the athleticism nor the body’s projection.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.8 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded 21% strikeout rate as junior at Florida, 23% in Low-A after signing.

Scouting Report
It’s rare to find college hitters with tools like Reed’s, but his feel for hitting never came and he fell to the Padres in the second round. He was heavily focused on bunting when I saw him during instructional league, so it looks like San Diego is scheming to find ways to sneak him on base. You can’t run forever, though, and sooner or later Reed is going to need to make a little bit of contact. I view Reed as being more explosive than he is athletic and am unsure about his ability to make adjustments. He’s a 70 runner with a plus arm and should be at least above-average in center field with reps. There’s a chance Reed hits neither for power nor contact, which would put an awful lot of pressure on his defense for him to profile as a regular. He projects as a fourth outfielder for me, but if he somehow starts hitting he’d be an absolute monster, and I’ll happily eat an entire murder of crows if it means I get to watch those tools play.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.4 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .282/.321/.416 at Double-A in 2016.

Scouting Report
Torres is short to the ball and has a bat path that creates natural loft, which allows him to make the most out of his raw power in games. The problem is Torres doesn’t have very much raw power and doesn’t project to hit for the kind of pop that profiles in a corner. He could be the short end of a platoon but profiles more as a below-average regular or bench bat.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.9 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .320/.364/.425 at Low-A.

Scouting Report
Allen was drafted in the fourth round of 2015 because he had big raw power (he slugged .728 as a junior at Florida Tech) and a non-zero chance to catch. The raw power is still in there, but Allen had issues elevating the ball consistently this season and had just eight homers. His pull-heavy approach will likely garner shifts in the big leagues. His receiving is fine and his pop times hover around average (I’ve had him as low as 1.94), but scouts are simply concerned that, by the time his bat is ready, Allen will be too big to have the mobility required to catch. There’s precedent for a body like this behind the plate (Evan Gattis and Gary Sanchez are both about Allen’s size) but it’s rare. Allen could break out statistically in 2017 with a Cal League assignment.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.9 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Walked in 12% of plate appearances at High-A in 2016.

Scouting Report
VanMeter has a selective approach and great bat-to-ball skills. I think he’ll be a plus hitter at maturity. He has 40 raw power. VanMeter spent much of 2016 at third base — and he’s played there a lot during Fall League — but he doesn’t have enough arm strength for the left side of the infield and projects as more as a second-base/left-field bench bat because there isn’t enough power here to play everyday at those positions.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.5 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded six-plus innings in three of last four with Toronto before trade, but no starts longer than five innings with San Diego after trade. Strikeout rate dropped from 19% to 13% after trade.

Scouting Report
Acquired for Melvin Upton mid-year, Rodriguez has classic body/delivery appeal. His low-90s fastball has promising sink and he’s shown some feel for spinning a slider. The changeup is behind but the loose nature of Rodriguez’s delivery allows for projection. Some scouts don’t like how Rodriguez flies open during his delivery and think it might make it hard for him to throw strikes, while others think it contributes to his velocity and the effective movement on his fastball. He has a chance to be a back-end starter but is eons away from a developmental standpoint.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.9 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Produced 24% strikeout rate at Double-A in 2016.

Scouting Report
Brasoban projects in relief, where hid mid- to upper-90s fastball and potential plus slider could play in high-leverage spots. He has electric arm speed but has not, as of yet, learned to harness his stuff and I’ve gotten some 30 present-control grades from scouts. San Diego has had him work in extended relief outings sometimes getting as many as nine outs out of the bullpen.

*****

Other Prospects of Note (In Order of Preference)Ruddy Giron, SS (video), 2.2 KATOH+ WAR – Twitchy and toolsy but flawed, Giron’s body may thicken up beyond viability at shortstop, and he worked at third during instructional league as well as short. He has above-average bat speed, but there’s some length back to the ball and the bat isn’t in the hitting zone very long. His bat and game power project to 40 for me on the scale, which makes it quite important for him to remain at short. I think a utility profile is more likely.

Andrew Lockett, RHP, 3.0 KATOH+ – Sinker/changeup artist with a chance to be an up-and-down starter. Throws strikes.

Henry Henry, RHP – I swear this is an actual pitcher’s name. He’s pretty interesting: somewhat projectable, will show you 94, but has been 88-89 some starts for me, as well. It’s a lower arm slot and the fastball can flatten out, but there’s arm strength and some breaking-ball feel here.

Jordy Barley, SS (video) – Barley signed for $1 million on July 2. He’s sushi raw but a future 7 runner with some athleticism and arm strength. He could be in complex-level ball for two years but he has some pretty significant upside if you’re willing to dream.

Andres Munoz, RHP (video) – Was 94-97 for me but has reportedly touched 100. He’s 17. Possesses 30 control right now but this kind of arm strength and physical projection can’t go unreported.

Franchy Cordero, OF, 1.5 KATOH+ – Cordero has electric hitting actions and can get the bat into the hitting zone quickly. He also runs well enough to play center field or be a plus defender in the corners. While the physical tools are impressive, Cordero rarely puts them together in games. He looks lost and immature in the outfield. I question the bat control and his natural hitter’s timing. He’s been incredibly frustrating to watch in the AFL. If the physical tools come together he could be a regular, but he’s 22 now and I think a fourth-outfielder ceiling is more likely — if he gets there at all.

Justin Lopez, INF (video) – Got $1.2 million on July 2. Has a huge, broad-shouldered frame that projects off of shortstop but his hands and actions are impressive. Could be plus at third base. Bat is incredibly raw and it’s important he gets stronger with it as the body develops. Very high risk here.

Tirso Ornelas, 1B (video) – A Mexican J2 signee from 2016, Ornelas has a compact, visually pleasing swing but the body is already quite mature and he seems destined for first base. I’m skeptical about the power playing there.

Austin Smith, RHP, (video)  0.3 KATOH+ – A big mature body with below-average athleticism and command but a low-to-mid-90s fastball and above-average slider. I think it will play in relief.

Lake Bachar, RHP – Bachar kicked and punted at Wisconsin-Whitewater. He’ll also show you 95 with an average curveball. Mature body, throws strikes, non-zero chance he sticks as a starter if he can develop a way to get lefties out.

Starlin Cordero, RHP – Long, lanky, 6-foot-7 righty with George Clinton-level funk to his delivery. I’ve seen him up to 97 with an average slider but he has very little idea where it’s going right now.

Omar Fernandez, LHP – Born 4/20/99, Fernandez has a mid-80s fastball and small frame but very athletic and loose and already has feel for an effective breaking ball and changeup. If he’s throwing 89-91 by the time he’s 20 he’s a legit prospect.

Mayky Perez, RHP (video) – Thick righty, 90-92 up to 94 with an average slider that he locates pretty readily to his glove side. Potential relief for me.

Wen-Hua Sung, RHP – More advanced than the other J2 signees, reports on Sung have been middling. There’s some arm speed and feel for his splitter but multiple scouts with whom I spoke think this signing was more about planting a flag in Taiwan than Sung’s true talent.

Joey Lucchesi, RHP – Deception, low- to mid-90s fastball, but very little in the way of playable secondaries and no margin for error at the upper levels. Potential reliever.

Jack Suwinksi, DH – Suwkinski is a man without a position and he has very little physical projection despite being just 18. His feel to hit is impressive, though, and it’s worth monitoring his performance as there’s a chance he just hits his way up the ladder.

Jabari Blash, OF, 1.4 KATOH+ – Blash has monster raw power but he’s 27 now and the strikeouts remain a massive, and likely fatal, flaw in his profile.

Franmil Reyes, 1B, 2.6 KATOH+ – A monstrous body with plus raw power projection, Reyes is so big that he projects to first base. I have concerns about his breaking-ball recognition and think the Cal League is kind to this skill set while Double-A and the breaking balls Reyes will see there won’t be.

Kyle McGrath, LHP, 1.5 KATOH+ – Deceptive lefty, 86-91 with plane and life, average change, below-average slider. Up-and-down arm for me, though I suppose the deception could play in relief.

Jose Torres, LHP, 0.7 KATOH+ – Upper-90s heat from a low arm slot but he has trouble getting on top of his slider, which is often flat and hittable. More of a LOOGY type for me. LOOGYs apparently throw 95-plus now, which is fun.

Nowhere Man

Javier Guerra, SS, 1.2 KATOH+
Guerra had a disastrous 2016, striking out in 33% of his plate appearances in Lake Elsinore while also struggling defensively. He remains incredibly athletic and acrobatic despite being just a 40 runner and he has the physical skills for shortstop if he can somehow familiarize himself with the position’s basic procedures and processes. He often makes head-scratching plays. Offensively, the swing-and-miss issues stem from a combination of poor bat control, breaking-ball recognition and a bat path that isn’t in the hitting zone very long. The power is still in there when Guerra does make contact, but unless he takes gargantuan strides with his ability to make contact he’ll never tap into it.

What really bothered many scouts about Guerra this year was the way he dealt with adversity. I don’t usually report this kind of thing because it’s so dubiously subjective to cast such shade, but Guerra’s makeup and demeanor were universally panned by scouts to whom I talked. He often looked sulky and lethargic and either unwilling to unable to make any kind of adjustments throughout the entire season.

There’s a chance he bounces back and he certainly has the physical talent to remake himself into some kind of prospect, but many teams view this as an unacquirable player right now and, barring a player-development miracle, I see no path for success at upper levels.

Cistulli’s Guy
Selected by Carson Cistulli from any player who received less than a 40 FV.
Michael Kelly, RHP, 1.5 KATOH+
It probably isn’t surprising to find that, in an organization teeming with legitimate prospects, there are also some compelling fringe prospects, as well. Ruddy Giron, cited above by Longenhagen, possesses a promising combination of contact skills and defensive ability — and has experienced success against older competition. Meanwhile, despite his defensive limitations, corner outfielder Luis Tejeda (0.7 KATOH+) exhibited some offensive skills in 2016.

What right-hander Michael Kelly has, however, that neither of those two currently do is a pretty clear path to the major leagues in 2017. Selected 48th overall in the 2011 draft out of a Florida high school, Kelly hasn’t recorded particularly excellent indicators at any point in his professional career. He’s produced respectable indicators, however, en route to a 10-start sojourn with Triple-A El Paso this past season as just a 23-year-old. That collection of variables, complemented by a fastball that reaches 95 mph, creates an interesting profile. Given San Diego’s projected rotation, Kelly is a candidate to throw some actual, real innings this year.

*****

System Overview
Well, I don’t know about you, but I need a cigarette after all that. This is one of baseball’s deepest systems. The club has beefed up the system through trades, aggressive Latin American signings and walking a high-upside tightrope in the draft. One evaluator told me the group of talent in San Diego’s instructional-league camp was the best he’d seen in a decade of scouting instrux. The attrition rate of the teenagers in the system is likely to be high, but there are so damn many of them that the Padres will almost certainly produce a homegrown star or two over the next five years. Despite tumult at the very top of the organization, the talent foundation for a strong future has been built.