Brady Singer Is the Last Man Standing in Kansas City

Very few things have gone according to plan in Kansas City this season. Yes, Bobby Witt Jr. made his major league debut alongside a number of other promising young position players, but the team is still on track to lose 97 games, their sixth consecutive losing season. After investing in a number of free agents prior to the 2021 season and taking a few small steps forward, the franchise has taken one giant leap backwards this year.

Their inability to break out of a rebuilding cycle that began after their 2015 World Series victory led to the dismissal of president of baseball operations Dayton Moore earlier this month. After guiding the franchise for 16 years, the Royals decided new leadership was required to push the team back into relevance. While Moore was sometimes ridiculed for his adherence to old school methods of roster construction and strategy, his track record should speak for itself. After taking the helm in 2006, he slowly rebuilt the entire organization, culminating in their championship season. Unfortunately, that success was short lived and the team slipped into another rebuilding cycle soon afterwards.

Last week, R.J. Anderson wrote about what’s next for the Royals as the franchise navigates this inflection point. He identified one glaring issue that has really sunk the team during its rebuild: an inability to draft and develop high-quality pitching. Since 2014, Kansas City has drafted 10 pitchers in the first round – two-thirds of their first round picks in that period were spent on hurlers. That’s an enviable amount of talent but thus far, almost all of it has been squandered:

A year after being drafted, Brandon Finnegan was traded to the Reds in the big Johnny Cueto swap; he has been out of the majors since 2018. Foster Griffin made his major league debut with the Royals in 2020 and was traded to the Blue Jays in July after pitching just six big league innings for Kansas City. Both Ashe Russell and Nolan Watson stalled out in the low minors, with injuries affecting the career of the former and a 6.32 career minor league ERA holding back the latter.

The 2018 draft class stands out as a particularly egregious example of unfulfilled potential. That year, the Royals drafted Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, and Kris Bubic in the first round. At the time, it was lauded as a draft class that could drastically change the fortunes of the franchise. Four years later, all four have made their major league debuts — an exceptional graduation rate — but just one has made a true impact in Kansas City:

Kowar has looked particularly lost in the big leagues, and both Lynch and Bubic have floundered in their limited time at the highest level. It’s still probably a little too early to call it quits on those three — particularly the latter two — but thank goodness Singer has found some success this year.

Singer made his major league debut two years after being drafted and put up some pretty solid numbers across his first two seasons in the big leagues. He posted nearly identical 4.08 and 4.04 FIPs in 2020 and ‘21, though his ERA ballooned to 4.91 last year, a result of some poor BABIP luck and an extremely low strand rate. Despite that modest success, Singer was relegated to the bullpen to start the 2022 season. He made three appearances as a long reliever before being sent down to Triple-A to reset and build back up to a starter’s workload. He was recalled on May 17 and hurled a seven inning scoreless gem against the White Sox, striking out nine, a new career-high for him. He then held the Twins scoreless over another seven innings in his next start. All told, he has compiled a fantastic 2.85 ERA and a 3.52 FIP in 23 starts since returning to the majors.

Earlier this year, The Athletic’s Eno Sarris and Alex Lewis investigated what seemed to be an organizational problem with fastball quality. They identified numerous issues with shape, location, and velocity that were present throughout the Royals pitching staff.

“Since the beginning of 2021, the Royals’ starters have the smallest vertical difference between the movement on their four-seamers and sinkers. They’re trying to throw better four-seamers but, right now, it’s hard to tell which type of fastball they’re even throwing. … Overall, it appears as if optimal mixes of location, shape, and velocity are lacking for the Royals’ starters right now. Whether it’s in the scouting department or the coaching department — or a combination — it’s clear something has to change for their fortunes to improve.”

It’s important to note that Singer was demoted to the minors just a few days after that article was published and wasn’t mentioned in it at all. That’s key because since being recalled, the shape of Singer’s sinker has improved dramatically. During his 2020 rookie season, his sinker averaged around 19.1 inches of raw vertical break. That amount of movement sits in the dreaded middle zone between a four-seamer and a sinker, close enough to both pitch types to be ineffective. A slightly higher release point last year affected the pitch’s spin axis and resulted in a pitch that didn’t drop as much. Batters jumped all over it, knocking it around to the tune of a .384 wOBA and a .385 expected wOBA on contact. The pitch did generate a few more swings and misses, but even a 22.3% whiff rate couldn’t offset all that loud contact.

Singer’s release point has dropped this season, below where it was in 2020, and the shape of his sinker has definitely benefited:

After averaging 17.7 inches of raw vertical movement last year, he’s added three inches of drop to the pitch and has improved the shape of it each month as the season has worn on. The pitch still doesn’t stand out when compared to other sinkers around the league, but its effectiveness has definitely returned. He’s allowed a .314 wOBA and a .356 expected wOBA on contact with the pitch, both marks slightly better than league average for the pitch type. The pitch’s whiff rate has dropped to 14.1%, decent for a sinker but well below what he was generating last year.

When he needs a swing-and-miss, Singer turns to his slider. That pitch has always been a weapon for him and its whiff rate currently sits at a career-high 33.7%. The biggest difference with his breaking ball is where he’s locating it. He’s throwing his slider in the zone far more often this year (48.4% of the time, up from 44.6% last year), and despite catching more of the plate, the pitch has been as effective as ever. In the zone, opposing batters are still whiffing 19.9% of the time they swing at the pitch, the highest in-zone whiff rate of Singer’s career and well above league average for the pitch type.

It’s not just his slider either. Singer is throwing his sinker in the zone nearly 60% of the time, a huge jump from what he was doing previously. While piping sinkers over the plate might not be the most ideal approach, it has worked well for him due to the aforementioned improvements in contact management. And by locating in the zone so much more often, Singer has reduced his walk rate from 9.0% to just 5.7%. He’s reduced the number of baserunners he has to work around, which means the contact he does allow isn’t as likely to result in a run scoring. A BABIP that’s fallen back to league average and a strand rate that’s greatly improved has led to an ERA that’s outpaced his FIP by more than half a run.

If there’s one concern worth monitoring, it’s Singer’s lack of a third pitch. He’s thrown a changeup around 7.8% of the time this year, a career-high, and nearly all of them have been thrown to left-handed batters. It’s not a particularly effective pitch, but it does give him something to keep opposite handed batters in check. The other problem that comes with Singer’s shallow repertoire is a significant penalty when facing a lineup more than twice; his wOBA allowed when working through a lineup for the third time jumps up to .354. Continuing to develop his changeup could help solve those issues, but his sinker and slider provide a solid foundation that’s been working for him this year.

It’s unclear whether the Royals will look to overhaul their entire development staff when Moore’s permanent replacement is named. With plenty of raw pitching talent languishing in the organization, improving their pitching pipeline should be a top priority for whoever takes over baseball operations. Defying the downward trend of his fellow draft class, Singer has made the right adjustments and improved his outlook. He might not be a frontline starter for the next great Royals team, but he can be a solid contributor in the meantime. That’s more than can be said for the rest of the Royals staff right now.