Brandon Allen Belongs in the Bigs
We’re pleased to welcome Eric Seidman back to FanGraphs today. Despite taking a 20 month sabbatical, he is still second among writers in post count here on the site. He’ll be contributing his thoughts here on a regular basis, and we’re pleased to welcome our own prodigal back home.
Brandon Allen has done everything a prospect can do to prove he deserves a legitimate major league opportunity, but the Diamondbacks seem unwilling to give their young slugger an extended look. With the emergence of Juan Miranda as a potential starter and the news that Russell Branyan will make the opening day roster, Allen appears to be the odd man out at first base. Since the team signed Xavier Nady to an incentive-laden major league deal and is committed to giving Gerardo Parra another shot as a starter, Allen also finds himself on the outside looking in at a crowded outfield. Add in that he has options remaining and it becomes increasingly likely with each passing day that he will open the season back in the Diamondbacks farm system, a destination he has completely outgrown.
Over 688 Triple-A plate appearances since 2009, Allen has hit .277/.397/.541 with passable defense at both first base and left field. He’s young, cost-controlled, and clearly capable of producing at a high level, but for whatever reason the Snakes lack confidence in his abilities. Scouts have expressed concern about his swing, but anybody with those numbers at the highest level of minor league competition deserves serious major league consideration.
The decision to keep Branyan in lieu of Allen makes even less sense when context is introduced. Branyan is injury-prone, aging, and in no way a long-term solution for a team, let alone one in the Diamondbacks’ position. He also bats from the left side of the plate, so he does not gain an advantage over Allen by being able to properly platoon with Miranda. Even if he produces well, is it really that far-fetched to think that an Allen/Miranda combination couldn’t match his numbers?
The Bill James projections peg Allen for a .251/.338/.462 line — very similar to Branyan’s numbers last season — and suggest Miranda could hit somewhere around .288/.362/.511. If those seem overly optimistic, Marcel considers them both capable of hitting at a league average level. Branyan may be more of a known entity, but he does not project to hit substantially better than either of the aforementioned prospects.
The Diamondbacks are not a three-win first baseman away from seriously contending, and even if they were, Branyan is in no way a sure thing to reach that mark. An Allen-Miranda platoon — even though both players bat from the left side — could match the league average with the upside to exceed that mark. Plus, the team would be able to better assess its assets by seeing what they can do in a more meaningful environment. Allen shouldn’t need another .280/.410/.550 in Triple A to merit a legitimate opportunity.
By opting for Branyan, or Nady, instead of Allen, the Diamondbacks are blocking a young slugger for the chance to miss the playoffs by nine games instead of thirteen, neither of which represents a desirable finish. There is a big difference between signing studs guaranteed to produce at a high level that simultaneously roadblock youngsters and what the Diamondbacks have done here by signing short-term question marks.
If the Diamondbacks are so low on Allen, then why not try to trade him? Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic recently suggested that the Rays were exploring Allen’s value at the winter meetings and have been high on him in the past. Perhaps the Nationals could view Allen as a potential successor to Adam LaRoche, or as a fourth outfielder. The Athletics could certainly afford to give him a shot as well, as when a good number of fans cannot even name your starting first baseman, odds are you can improve at the position.
Plain and simple, Allen belongs in the major leagues in some capacity, and if the Diamondbacks are not going to give him the shot he deserves — and I’m not talking about 50 meaningless plate appearances in September — then it makes little sense to let such a talented and useful player rot in their system. If they view Miranda as the solution moving forward, that’s perfectly acceptable, but sending Allen back to the minors is not the course of action here.
Allen does not need any more seasoning. He needs a major league season under his belt, and if the Diamondbacks are not the team willing to give him that opportunity, I fully expect their phones to be ringing off the hook over the next couple of weeks with teams inquiring about his availability. This might not be a full-blown “Free _____” campaign, but rather a plea to stop denying a young talent the opportunity he deserves. If he’s the next Mike Hessman, so be it, but give the kid a shot before pigeonholing him.
Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.
Is this a service time issue? Maybe Branyan gets traded for something useful in a few months like he was by the Indians last year and then Allen takes over.
You are preaching to the choir, Seidman. Arizona knows what they have in Allen, but to me, the Branyan signing simply indicates they want to delay his arbitration clock. I’d look for him to be in the Majors in May or June at the latest.
Could be, but I think it’s more of the team just not seeing Allen in their plans.
Welcome back Seidman
Good to be back, baby!
I’m not sure a 1st baseman with MLE’s pointing to a <.800 OPS and who plays "passable" defense really deserves a shot.
There are a ton of those guys. Is the average 1b OPS somewhere in the .850 range?
Everyone was high on Allen when he was a minor leaguer. He was powerful, walked enough … then he came to the majors and saw his K-Rate jump to 40% and his ISO go down.
I know it’s only 240 total PA. I’m not suggesting that ARZ give up on him. But, I’m also not suggesting they need to watch 40% K-Rate for another 500 PA in order to conclude that he has major holes in his swing. The difference between MLB and MiLB pitching could be that difficult for Allen.
He does walk and hit homers though. He does have potential value. On a team like the DBacks, I agree that Branyan doesn’t make sense unless they’re hoping for him to have a big 1st half and trade him to a contender. But I’m not seeing that.
I think FG tends to over-value or over-rate Allen. I think ARZ’s scouts (or whoever) has likely seen what he can do both at MiLB and at MLB and have made a decision. Be interesting to hear/read some of the reports on him as to why he struggles so much more at MLB (plate discipline, a certain pitch/location, etc).
When he was traded from the Sox, it looked like it could be a potentially bad move for Chicago. But as of now, Allen looks more like the NL’s version of Brandon Wood rather than anything resembling even Ryan Howard.
I wouldn’t say I’m overrating him. It’s hard to rate him at all, because we have no idea what he can do. All I’m saying is that the Diamondbacks run no risk of giving him some major league playing time this year, playing time he deserves over Branyan, Nady, etc.
My perspective was this is the 3rd (or more if I missed one) “Let Brandon Play” article at FG. His projections, etc are not as good as the guys they have. Nor are they really outstanding.
Agreed that the Diamondbacks have no real risk in giving him playing time this year, but then they also shouldn’t expect to see anything they haven’t already seen.
Is he really likely to lower his K-Rate 15% or so?
Also, I was under the impression that Miranda was going to play 1B. Did that change? I ask because all systems ( that I have seen) have Miranda significantly better than Allen. If that be the case, then Allen getting playing time, takes away time from a better player … and Allen being in MLB on the bench takes away PA’s he could be getting at AAA.
But, sending him to AAA is the same thing as sending Maybin or Wood to AAA … they just go down and mash and then come up and struggle.
In the end, I’m not sure he’s good enough to warrant multiple “protests” or “rallies”. I mean isn;t there another Ryan Ludwick around?
While I essentially agree with the premise of the article, I also agree with RC, in that I feel Eric is overstating Allen’s likely contribution if given an every day job.
His K rate is likely to be a major issue. The minor league track record, translations & mle’s, etc, and the scouts all agree on this issue.
Still….silly for the D backs to have taken on both Miranda and Branyan. They had nothing to lose by giving Allen a shot this year.
BTW, last year, when there was still a serious effort on Arizona’s part to contend, I felt it wise to go with a more proven first baseman and give Allen another year in the minors to work on his approach and plate discipline. But this year is a different story. It was his time to get a shot, but clearly the organization does not believe in him, and knowing what I know about KT and crew, this is cleary a scout driven decision. KT loves Miranda, and he may end up being right about him.
Good to have you back Seidman. I agree with you. I’ve been high on Allen for a little while now and I’m still not getting why the D-Backs aren’t giving him at least a CHANCE. One of two things are going on with the Arizona front office: a) they’re doing something that we don’t know about or b) theyre having a big brain fart. I hope he’ll get his chance.
Any moves by the DBacks have to be judged against the notion that the DBacks are very obviously punting this year and looking forward to 2012 or even 2013. Signing or bringing in the likes of Zach DUke and Armando Galarraga combined with Mora, Nady, Blum & Branyon and having a manager who touts playing “the right way” strongly suggests they are just looking to put a team on the field to get through this year and hope their farm system will produce in another year or two. The last 2 drafts were strong and this year looks good again with 2 picks in the top 7 and all their recent trades have been prospect driven, specifically pitching (Haren, Jackson, Reynolds). Oh, also remember that the GM just started the end of last season and GMs are usually given a few years to put their plan in action. I’m sure Towers knows that and is planning accordingly.
My guess is Allen probably IS part of the plan, it’s just the plan doesn’t start until 2012 at the earliest. . . . .
That’s an interesting take, but punting this year doesn’t mean spending money you don’t really need to spend on Nady/Mora/Branyan, when there are prospects that could conceivably play right now. It’s not like Branyan or Nady is going to attract sellout crowds either.
I agree with you – I’d rather watch the prospects find their way but I don’t think we’re the average fan either. The average fan doesn’t know who the prospects are (although they would probably know Allen) and doesn’t want to sit through a losing season with a bunch of no-names. So you sign some players with names the fans at least recognize and you sell grit and determination for a year while the farm system matures. Ownership still needs to put butts in the seats and of course they can’t just say “Hey, we’re tanking this season so we can win next year”.
I’m just guessing but the veterans they’ve brought in seem very similar to the types of moves the Royals have made over the last couple seasons while they wait for their farm system to mature. . . . .
I don’t think I buy this. Given Allen’s shaky MLB service so far, and the amount of damage he’s done at AAA, I’d think they’d rather go into a contending season in 2012 with Allen having had as much MLB experience as possible. I don’t think anybody sees him as being a superstar, so for him I just don’t know if that having him for 4 years starting in 2012 when he hits arby in 2013 is significantly different from him having 5 years under control in 2012. More specifically, not wasting this money this year probably pays for the difference in the next contending Arizona team.
Right — and since they aren’t acting as though they want him to have as much MLB time as possible heading into next year it leads me to believe they don’t like what they see. If that’s the case, and he has no future in AZ, trade him.
Hey Seidman,
I’ve never heard of you either, but I’m betting you weren’t a 5 win player last year. Maybe this Allen clown should take your job instead?
Cheers,
DB
In fact I WAS a 5-win player last year.
It’s also worth noting that all Allen’s Triple-A time has come at Reno, which sits at an altitude of 4,500 feet. not far short of Coors Field. [And I don’t think they have a humidor…] Arizona fans have already learned to discount heavily offensive numbers produced there.
Why even mention Marcel “projections” (I’m not sure I’d call Marcel a projection system exactly — its intention and methodology is quite different from most of them) for players with very little MLB time? Marcel doesn’t use minor-league numbers at all and regresses to league-average, so every player with very little MLB time will project as very nearly a league-average hitter.
This is the classic case of veteran over rookie mentality that is pervasive throughout baseball. Call itthegood old boys syndrome or what have you. This is shyer routine used it herein the 5 ERA range getting million dollar contracts. We see hitters who barely hit get million dollar contracts.
Why the establishment will not lettheyoungguyswho are likely earn the league minimum more chances is beyond me. If you are not thenexthot prospect you a buried. OnlytheAngels seem to routinely ring up guys that are not considered great prospects. Many have turned out. Figginswasnot highly rated. Nor was Edmonds as I recall.
I’m not sure the Diamondacks are the team you want to use the “Old School vs. New School” argument against … given that two young “New School” guys oversaw this team’s drop from atop the division (I said oversaw; I’m not placing all of the blame on them).
Why isn’t this situation just ARZ not playing their 3rd best 1B? Brandon Allen should not start over Juan Miranda.
Let’s be consistent and look at advanced metrics in the projection systems.
The only comparative stats we saw in this article show that Miranda is a decent amount better than Allen.
Why would they trade him? And for what? They aren’t going to get anything valuable in return, and he at least serves as 1B depth if (doesn’t if really mean when) Branyan gets hurt or Miranda struggles/injured.
Looking at all 1B’s in the ZiPs projections, Allen ranks 30th in RC/27 and 37th in OPS+.
With Zips he scores above Miranda (Miranda scores higher with Oliver/THT) by a small margin.
ZiPs projects a 26% K-Rate. If he was doing that (26% instead of 40%), this wouldn’t even be a discussion. He’s be the starting 1B.
I see most of the comments here are regarding Allen at 1B vs Miranda and Branyon. In my opinion, he should see a lot of time in LF instead of Nady. With Nady, you know what you’re getting, and he could be a somewhat valuable 4th OF on a contender, but he’s basically just filler as a starter in AZ. I know the Dbacks also have Parra, also a lefty, which makes the platoon between Parra and Allen more difficult (a recurring theme it seems with all these lefties), but as a Dback fan, I’d rather see Parra and Allen out there in LF than Nady.
It’s too bad that Branyon can’t play 3B anymore (not that he ever was great over there), because I’d rather see him play 3B than that awful Blum/Mora platoon. I have said this several times, but the Dbacks will regret the Reynolds trade.
I should modify my last comment because I don’t think I worded it very well in regards to Branyon vs. Blum/Mora. Since I believe his defense would be dreadful at 3B, he can’t start him over Blum/Mora. It was just wishful thinking on my part if he could have been passable on defense right now at 3B, THEN he would have been preferable to the other two guys. I’m not even sure if his defense was ever “passable” even early in his career at 3B.
Why would he go to Oakland? Daric Barton is a fantastic 1st baseman, and the outfield is overcrowded already.