Branyan to the Tribe
I’d like to personally thank Russell Branyan for signing with the Indians about an hour after my post speculating on his fit with Tampa Bay was published. Thanks man.
Carlos Pena trade speculation aside, let’s turn our attention to Branyan. He reunites with his original organization after traveling the world, as Cleveland finds a bargain at the end of the winter. He’ll get just $2 million in guaranteed money for 2010, with incentives offering the chance to make another $1 million depending on how much he plays. That’s almost certainly less than he turned down to return to the Mariners at the beginning of free agency, a move that Branyan likely regrets now.
What should the Indians expect from Branyan? Well, besides a lot of strikeouts, he’s actually one of the tougher players in the game to project. In the first half of 2009, Branyan was among the game’s best hitters, posting wOBAs of .444 in April, .430 in May, and .400 in June. However, a huge chunk of that success was built on flukey high BABIPs, as he just strikes out too much to maintain an average close to .300.
Sure enough, his BABIP regressed in July and August, but it didn’t just stop at the mean. It fell to .173 and .255 in the final two months respectively, but a herniated disc in his back makes it a challenge to figure out whether that was bad luck, injury, or a combination of both. He sustained most of his power, even while playing in pain, but it certainly makes sense that a guy with a bad back would be less likely to get hits on balls that don’t leave the yard.
Branyan claims he’s healthy, but he didn’t have surgery this winter, and the Mariners backed away from retaining him after he tweaked his back earlier in the off-season. There are some pretty big red flags here, obviously, but at the price, it seems to be worth the risk for the Indians.
As a 1B/DH (given the back problems, asking him to play anywhere else isn’t a great idea), he’ll likely split time with Matt LaPorta and Travis Hafner, giving the Indians a rotation of three guys to share two spots. Hafner’s no specimen of health himself, so having a guy capable of swatting home runs when he needs a day (or month) off is a good plan.
If Branyan stays healthy, this is certainly a nice move for the Indians, but I’d suggest that its beyond our powers to guess how much he’ll be able to play this year. He’s a cheap lotto ticket, though, and he’s certainly a lot of fun to watch when he’s going well.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
“As a 1B/DH (given the back problems, asking him to play anywhere else isn’t a great idea), he’ll likely split time with Matt LaPorta and Travis Hafner, giving the Indians a rotation of three guys to share two spots.”
Have the Indians given up on the idea of LaPorta, left-fielder? Is Brantley likely to get that spot?
For what it’s worth Dave that Pena idea sounded really good.
Well, $2MM for 100 games of DH Branyan sounds fine to me.
Some ignorant Indians fans have been ripping on Branyan since the team’s interest was mentioned, but this looks like a solid deal.
I thought CLE needed a RH stick more than LH? If that’s indeed the case, I’ll wait to see how much Jermaine Dye signs for before I pass judgment here. Dye is actually reasonably athletic and healthy, and versatile.
Does anyone else feel like Branyan would have gotten more time in Tampa Bay? The Rays certainly would have matched this $2 mil. offer, wouldn’t they? I don’t really understand this move for Branyan unless he thinks he’s got a good shot at competing for a starting job. But still, a DH platoon with Burrell is practically a starting job and, like you said Dave, the starting 1B job in 2011 would seem to have been his for the taking.
Branyon is just a bad baseball player. If the Indians want some guy that cannot play defense, cannot run, that strikes out every other at bat, and can barely play because of injuries, go for him. He will only make a team that lost 97 games even worse.
Addressing time:
– he played 3B at an acceptable level as recently as 2008. His career UZR/150 at 1B is 1.6. He’s not Keith Hernandez at 1B, but by all accounts he’s fine.
– Prince Fielder can’t run either, seems to do okay
– OMGz STRIKEOUTS. Citing statistics that matter, he has a career ISO of .257. 1,845 players have recorded 2,800+ PA’s in their career, Branyan included. That .257 puts him 23rd in ISO in that group. His wOBA since 2007 is .361. Know what Justin Morneau’s is? .364. Paul Konerko’s? .355
– legit point. But worst case scenario is: he sucks and they pay $2MM. CHONE scenario: He’s 1.2 WAR and they paid about 1/2 his market value. For a team that’s not expected to contend, Branyan is a perfectly decent risk to take.
Branyan’s defense is fine for what he does. Sure, a nice lotto ticket but for the Indians this makes no sense. Why do they need another aging, injury prone slugger at DH-1B? It’s just another way for Shapiro to tinkle away a couple million while feigning competitiveness. I would much rather see them go with 4A guys like Crowe & Duncan until they’re able to develop their own talent. Having said that, one could count on one hand the number of quality major league players they’ve drafted and developed since Hart left.
so what does this mean for Laporta’s playing time? Is there going to be a platoon at 1B?
There’s no way that LaPorta gets platooned.
There are some 1350 PA available for DH and 1B, and 50+ pinch-hitting opportunities. That’s 1400 PA for three guys who all have some injury issues coming into the season. It’s not really that tight of a squeeze from that perspective.
That’s without even considering Branyan getting some time at 3B or LF, or LaPorta in LF, all of which are real possibilities.