Branyan to the Tribe

I’d like to personally thank Russell Branyan for signing with the Indians about an hour after my post speculating on his fit with Tampa Bay was published. Thanks man.

Carlos Pena trade speculation aside, let’s turn our attention to Branyan. He reunites with his original organization after traveling the world, as Cleveland finds a bargain at the end of the winter. He’ll get just $2 million in guaranteed money for 2010, with incentives offering the chance to make another $1 million depending on how much he plays. That’s almost certainly less than he turned down to return to the Mariners at the beginning of free agency, a move that Branyan likely regrets now.

What should the Indians expect from Branyan? Well, besides a lot of strikeouts, he’s actually one of the tougher players in the game to project. In the first half of 2009, Branyan was among the game’s best hitters, posting wOBAs of .444 in April, .430 in May, and .400 in June. However, a huge chunk of that success was built on flukey high BABIPs, as he just strikes out too much to maintain an average close to .300.

Sure enough, his BABIP regressed in July and August, but it didn’t just stop at the mean. It fell to .173 and .255 in the final two months respectively, but a herniated disc in his back makes it a challenge to figure out whether that was bad luck, injury, or a combination of both. He sustained most of his power, even while playing in pain, but it certainly makes sense that a guy with a bad back would be less likely to get hits on balls that don’t leave the yard.

Branyan claims he’s healthy, but he didn’t have surgery this winter, and the Mariners backed away from retaining him after he tweaked his back earlier in the off-season. There are some pretty big red flags here, obviously, but at the price, it seems to be worth the risk for the Indians.

As a 1B/DH (given the back problems, asking him to play anywhere else isn’t a great idea), he’ll likely split time with Matt LaPorta and Travis Hafner, giving the Indians a rotation of three guys to share two spots. Hafner’s no specimen of health himself, so having a guy capable of swatting home runs when he needs a day (or month) off is a good plan.

If Branyan stays healthy, this is certainly a nice move for the Indians, but I’d suggest that its beyond our powers to guess how much he’ll be able to play this year. He’s a cheap lotto ticket, though, and he’s certainly a lot of fun to watch when he’s going well.