Braves, Dodgers Complete Mostly Unremarkable Six-Player Swap
It took a little while to get here, with an unexpected obstacle or two, but we’ve got a six-player trade between the Braves and the Dodgers. The youngest player involved is 26, the average age of the players is about 31, and this year they’ve all combined to be worth -1.2 WAR. Sounds to me like something worth examining in detail.
Going from Atlanta to Los Angeles:
Going from Los Angeles to Atlanta:
It’s anything but a blockbuster. You could say a lot of these parts were expendable. Uribe lost playing time. Withrow’s still sidelined after surgery. Callaspo was likely to be designated for assignment. Jaime already had been designated for assignment, and cleared waivers. The Braves booted Stults from the starting rotation. Thomas has 16 big-league innings. Most likely, this isn’t a trade that’s going to make any meaningful difference, but if you look at it long enough, you can see components of certain interest. It’s kind of like a statistical Magic Eye puzzle, where the image revealed is very slightly more interesting than the immediate visual appearance of the puzzle itself. OK, good, I think I’m selling this well.
Money is a factor in this. Money is just about always a factor, and here it’s no different. Although, strangely, it isn’t the Dodgers who are taking on the extra financial burden. Uribe has a 2015 salary of $6.5 million. Callaspo’s at $3 million, and Stults is at $2 million. Given where we are in the season now, the Dodgers stand to gain approximately $1 million or so of space. So, the Braves will be paying about $1 million extra, but that’s the baseball version of pocket change, and it’s hard to imagine the Dodgers being motivated by the chance to dump so little. The money matters, but this is more about the players involved.
Juan Uribe had basically lost his job. He’d done good work for the Dodgers in the past, but he’s lost time to Justin Turner and Alex Guerrero, and the Dodgers also added one Hector Olivera. Uribe, somewhat understandably, hasn’t been performing, and the Dodgers needed to make a move. Callaspo, they figure, might be better suited to come off the bench, being a switch-hitter. But, possibly, Callaspo will be dropped in short order.
In small part, the Braves made this move to upgrade from Callaspo to Uribe. Uribe was a good player in 2013 and in 2014, and he projects to be more valuable than Callaspo the rest of the way. With even a little bit of a rebound, Uribe can have some use as a regular or semi-regular third baseman, depending on what the Braves do with Chris Johnson, and the Braves are in the vicinity of .500 so they can’t just give up on this year entirely. With Uribe, they’re a tiny bit better.
In larger part, the Braves made this move to get Withrow. The bad news is he’s recovering from Tommy John surgery. The bad news is also that he’s recovering from back surgery. But Withrow was an effective major-league reliever before he got hurt, with high velocity and high strikeouts. So the Braves see a high ceiling after Withrow is healthy again, and, who knows, maybe he ends up a closer. A level below that, he could be a good setup arm. There’s a chance Withrow can participate before the end of the year, but if not, he’s in line to be good to go next spring. The Braves have prioritized high-upside arms through their rebuild so far. Withrow could be part of a good future bullpen.
On the other side, you see a few reasons. Clearing about $1 million isn’t nothing, even for the Dodgers. They knew they needed to address the third-base clog, and this way maybe they get Uribe decent playing time somewhere else. Stults could step in as immediate rotation depth, what with the Dodgers’ injuries and Brandon Beachy not yet being ready. And there are Thomas and Jaime. In a way, the Dodgers got two relievers for one reliever. Withrow is the most proven, but Thomas and Jaime are both interesting, and neither is coming off surgery.
I don’t need to say much about Callaspo. His relevance begins and ends with the fact that he walks about as often as he strikes out. He hasn’t hit for a couple years, and this year Statcast hasn’t recorded a single batted ball of his above 100 miles per hour off the bat. Callaspo owns the second-lowest average exit velocity in baseball, between Ichiro Suzuki and Jose Iglesias, and Callaspo isn’t a big factor in this move.
You also don’t want to get too excited about Stults. He’s Eric Stults, as much as he’s ever been. He’s not a bad starting option, and perhaps the Dodgers are encouraged by the fact that Stults is working out of pitcher-friendly counts more than he ever has. This year, Stults has one of baseball’s lowest rates of hitter-friendly counts, which almost lets you look past his near-6 ERA. He’s a 35-year-old with a fastball in the 80s. Stults can start reliably and provide at least replacement-level performance, and that’s something for a team with depleted depth, but this wasn’t part of the Dodgers’ plan.
So you look to Thomas and Jaime. Now, the Dodgers already had a chance for Jaime. Everyone in baseball already had a chance for Jaime, when he was DFA’d earlier this season. He cleared waivers, which tells you enough about his perception. But Jaime does have a fastball in the mid- to high-90s, with high minor-league strikeout and walk rates. You know the type. Usually, these players don’t work out, but sometimes something clicks.
And Thomas is different. The lefty doesn’t throw all that many pitches north of 90 miles per hour, but he has a decently full repertoire, and in the majors he’s struck out more than a batter an inning. This year in the high minors, he has a walk and 20 strikeouts. His peripherals are strong enough, and he just hasn’t had much of a big-league opportunity. You can see why a team would want to stash him away.
Withrow has done more in the majors than Thomas has, or than Jaime has. Yet, that doesn’t tell the whole story, because Withrow’s coming back off a pair of operations. That adds uncertainty to his future, which balances things out. It’s an exchange of different types of risk. The Braves are taking on the risk that Withrow might not get back to 100%. The Dodgers are taking on the risk that Thomas might not translate his numbers to the majors, or that Jaime might not ever repeat his delivery. I don’t know enough to say which side is right. It’s just interesting to follow which risk goes where.
As a final note, that I have to put somewhere, several people have noted Uribe’s clubhouse presence with the Dodgers. He was almost indescribably popular, and he helped to break down walls and encourage team positivity. So it would be easy to interpret this as the Dodgers front office nerding out about the irrelevance of chemistry. But, you have to look forward: Uribe was hardly ever going to play, were he to stick around. Baseball players are prideful people, and they don’t much enjoy being benched. There’s no guarantee Uribe would’ve remained a positive presence as an infrequent role player, so maybe this isn’t actually a big deal. Maybe it was time to move on. Uribe will be sad to leave Los Angeles, but he should be happy to be able to play.
Odds are, no one does anything much. Maybe Uribe’s worth a win or two over the remainder. Maybe Stults gets a handful of starting opportunities. Maybe one of the relievers rips off a stretch of 10 good innings. What this is is a very minor risk exchange, with a small financial factor, and a small depth factor. The Braves see Chris Withrow’s upside. The Dodgers see Chris Withrow’s scars. Take a step back, and you can see both.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
So much for Stults!
I thought he was great in Pulp Fiction
Great article as always. Looks like the Dodgers have DFA’d Eric Stults. Callaspo added to the active roster, Ian Thomas to AAA, and Jaime to extended Spring training per Kevin McAlpin.
‘Chemistry’ is virtually meaningless but…
The Dodger return was possibly even more meaningless than chemistry.
I do not find a reason for the Dodgers to shake things up for organizational depth which was just designated.
Even Withrow’s potential ceiling probably outweighs it.
Of course we should know how this ends… Uribe gets flipped, leads the Giants to a wild card, and hits .500 in the playoffs.
Been playing devil’s advocate in my mind on this one, and still don’t see the uptick that outweighs the potential impact on chemistry.
I get Jeff’s point about Uribe’s presence potentially going downhill if he’s buried on the bench, but you also have to factor in the impact on his closest friends on the team. I’m sure guys like Puig, Gonzalez etc. would be fine with the deal if the Dodgers picked up a key part (say a healthy back-of-rotation starter), but to basically get Callaspo for Uribe doesn’t look like much.
If a trade has people talking about chemistry on fangraphs it obviously is a pretty irrelevant acquisition.
Uribe was benched during previous seasons and never caused any trouble.
That was publicized.
Benched is different than traded, and chemistry absolutely does matter.
Funny that Chris Johnson is just now coming off the DL. I would bet the Braves pitching staff would love to have Uribe get first dibs at playing time at 3B. It’s not like Johnson’s bat outweighs the possible defensive upgrade with Uribe.
Yep. Miller and Perez both get a ton of groundballs. I’m sure they’ll be ecstatic to have Juan on board.
Good point about Uribe possibly not being a good clubhouse presence with less playing time. Maybe the Dodgers were rewarding him for his past performance by sending him somewhere he’s going to play.
Uribe was benched during previous seasons and never caused any trouble.
Still why not just release Uribe and keep Withrow?
Teams don’t generally release players just because
this move is a head-scratcher for me. All indications were that Uribe was a very beloved figure in the clubhouse. I wouldn’t mess with the chemistry of a winning club.
Isn’t one of the major takeaways here that it clears a path to everyday playing time for Alex Guerrero?
Justin Turner still lives.
With Hector Olivera nearly poised to supplant both.
Assuming he hits in the minors… probably a fair assumption… but if he isn’t hitting after three weeks, then there won’t be anything for Alex and Justin to worry about.
Mattingly can easily bungle that into a Justin Turner/Alberto Collapso platoon…
In what was one of the most cluttered, inconsequential, and boring trade in a while you successfully held my interest through the entire article. Well done and well written! I never thought I would ever be thinking about the subtleties and inner dynamics of a trade involving guys such as Eric Stults and Juan Jaime!
You painted this in a much more positive light for the Dodgers than I ever could have imagined. Thomas is the only semi-interesting piece coming back, and he fills a role that Paco Rodriguez, Adam Liberatore, JP Howell, and Daniel Coloumbe already fill pretty darn well. Withrow is at least as interesting a future bullpen piece, and he’s younger.
I admire that the Dodgers wanted to give Uribe a chance to play, but that should be secondary to putting the best team together, and by losing him, I do not think they made their team better. Stults and Callaspo have no value, and Jaime cannot help the team this year.
Finally, $1 million to the Dodgers truly is chump change. They are the team that lets other teams save up their nickels in order to receive more talent in return, not the other way around.
No matter how I look at it, this does not seem like a good deal for the Dodgers. Trading Uribe made sense, but what they got back does not.
Uribe is OK when things are going good, but he does have some ego. Despite the Giants giving him a chance and helping him rebuild his free agent value by using him a lot, plus him participating in a huge way on a World Series champion, he was a much more angry player than I thought he would be after 2010. And he left in a huff because LA offered him $1M more than the Giants were offering.
So even though he has a good rep, you don’t know what’s going on in the clubhouse, for example, there was some smoke regarding Sandoval in his last season with the Giants, but it didn’t catch flames until after he signed away. And he had a good rep as well, yet publicly announced that he had no friends on the team, maybe Bochy and Pence, which must have been a huge surprise to all his Latino teammates, especially his Venezuelan ones, Scutaro, Machi, Hanchez, Blanco, Petit, Gutierrez, Adrianza. And there was all these articles talking about how close the Venezuelans were in 2013 and 2014. So you never know, unless you are a regular in the LA clubhouse.
Just seems like one of those, “I need to clear my roster of some players, you do too, lets trade the ones the other likes, and then see what happens.”
Apparently the Dodgers wanted to see these two prospects more than they thought Withrow could contribute in the future. I would note here that they have up close and personal medical advice on him. Plus, they seem to have a pretty good set of relievers going right now anyway, so Withrow’s value as two in the bush was not that enticing anymore, so they got two relievers who they like and hope to develop for later.
As the article notes, Uribe probably had one foot out the door anyway, because of Turner and Guerrero, but apparently the Braves really wanted him over Callaspo. And why not, Callaspo don’t look like he got it anymore, this season is a continuation of the slide he started last season and he’s never been that good defensively for a number of years now, 2012 was his last good year.
Meanwhile, Uribe, while a down year offensively and defensively (perhaps the lack of play affecting him?), was very good just last season, plus his swing stats all still look good, so perhaps he is just having bad BABIP luck right now, and if so, should he regress to his 3.6 WAR rate last season, that would beat Callaspo’s peak he reached in 2011 and the last time he was good for positive WAR was in 2012.
Basically Braves wanted the potential for a huge upgrade, perhaps as much as 4 WAR (2/3 season left, Uribe return to last season would add 2.5 WAR vs. Callaspo probably producing -1.5 WAR). But didn’t want to take on that much salary, hence adding Stults, who LA promptly DFAed. For that, Dodgers wanted two promising pitchers (but not that promising, it seems from above), and the Dodgers threw in a reliever who might be great when he gets healthy, to help balance things out in Braves eyes.
Dodgers would like to dump Uribe soon anyway, since Turner and Guerrero are doing well, plus a trade would mean that they get some prospects instead of just eating $4.4M. Scanning the Braves farm system, they saw a couple of meh prospects who they nonetheless think might have something. And knowing Withrow’s medical history better than the Braves, felt that the two prospects at some point are worth more than Withrow later.
Whatever “smoke” there was with Sandoval didn’t mean a thing when it came down to winning championships. Maybe Uribe is a different kind of “bad” than Sandoval, but my guess is that in both cases it’s more fiction than fact.
“I need to clear my roster of some players, you do too, lets trade the ones the other likes, and then see what happens.”
I think this is pretty dead-on. It’s like trading your doubles with your opponent in a card game (like Uno or Crazy Eights or something?) where you are trying to go out and doubles aren’t helpful.
Yeah, my red 8 probably doesn’t help you that much and your green 5 doesn’t help me that much, but it beats me just turning it in and passing on my turn.
I know, this is a super weird analogy.
Jeff, you referenced Alex Guerrero in this piece, seems like I’ve yet to hear anyone discuss the seemingly outrageous contract language his agent was somehow able to have added. That, if he is traded, he can void his contract after this season…not to mention veto rights this spring about being sent down. His trade value is nil due but most don’t seem aware of it. Have such concessions ever been given to a amateur free agent? Granted that his situation is somewhat unusual. But still…why did the Dodgers allow themselves to be painted into a corner like this?
Ned Colletti
I could see a team that was financially strapped offering a contract like that in order to save money, but these are the Dodgers. Surely the added roster flexibility would have made it more than worth it for them to give Guerrero a little extra money to accept a less restrictive contract.
It’s less restrictive than a no-trade clause, and free agents negotiate that all the time. There were 30 teams that could bid for his services.
Frankly, if Guerrero isn’t performing, he’s not going to have much trade value with or without that clause.
“Free agents negotiate that all the time.” Yeah, experienced major leaguers. He’s not. He had zero at bats AT ANY PROFESSIONAL LEVEL when that contract was signed. Name one other amateur with zero service time whose contract language allows him to opt out like that.
Jose Abreu and Yasmani Tomas’ contracts have opt-outs. Guerrero doesn’t, unless he’s optioned or traded.
If the player plays well, the team stands to lose more from the former than the latter.
Ned Coletti signed Guerrero. Ned Coletti was a horrible negotiator and an even worse General Manager
The youngest player is actually 26, as Withrow just turned that age.
You can never trust the birth certificates of those kids from Texas.
Another example of the Mets staring an upgrade in the face and balking because they don’t want to spend a dime.
You would think a team that is resorting to Ruben Tejada at third base could scare up the $6 million to have a stopgap for Wright, who is probably months away.
But no.
Seeing that they traded Neiuwenhius (sic) for cash considerations, their epic cheapness is on full display this week.
PS – ironically, they were also too cheap to keep Justin Turner.
I think there’s a good chance Wright doesn’t play at all this year (and maybe not that much in the future), so getting Uribe for spare parts or taking on the money would have been a great move. But I guess they are still paying back their ill-gotten Madoff money?
Maybe we’re being too cynical. Uribe played well for the Dodgers and was a great clubhouse guy. He still has a lot left in the tank, but he wasn’t good enough to play much for the Dodgers. He is good enough to play regularly for the Braves. Maybe they are just trying to do right by their player. I’m reminded of when the Mariners traded Ichiro to the Yankees to give him a shot at a ring. Teams aren’t always heartless. Also, maybe I’ve see too many Hallmark movies, but maybe he has an estranged son/wife/father/dog or combination thereof in Atlanta and this is all part of an elaborate scheme by Ned to get them back together.
“He still has a lot left in the tank”
Perhaps. But perhaps not.
I read on one comment board that the Dodgers also saved quite a bit on salary cap penalty — is that right?
No. 2015 will be the Dodgers’ third consecutive year over the luxury tax threshold, so they will have to pay 40% of the amount by which their payroll exceeds $189M. Current estimates have the total payroll approaching $300M.
If you assume that they will save $1M in net salary from this trade (as has been widely reported, including above), they only stand to save $400k in penalties.
Does anyone know if the clause in Guerrero’s contract applies to every season, or just this offseason? In other words, if they keep him and then trade him on, say, Opening Day 2016, can he still void the rest of his contract? I haven’t seen anyone specify if the language in the contract only covers this offseason or if its a blanket right he has through every season of his contract.
I believe the wording is that if he is traded before or during any season, he will have the option to become a free agent at the end of that season. Scott Boras would probably demand an extension in order to forgo Guerrero’s option.
Per ESPN:
“Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said the team had approached the Braves about acquiring Thomas in spring training and revived the talks and added other players when Uribe’s agent, Barry Praver, called Friedman to ask him to explore trades with other teams where he could play more frequently.
Uribe, who often went by the nickname “Papi,” was one of the most popular Dodgers players because of his lighthearted personality, but the team didn’t want him around if he was unhappy with his role.
“If a guy’s not happy and he hasn’t been happy for, probably, the last couple of weeks with his situation, then it’s never good,” Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said. “I think you want your pieces to fit and Juan was getting to be a tougher fit just from the standpoint of the guys we had here.””
Interestingly, I have to wonder if the agent made this request on Uribe’s behalf, or on his own without Uribe’s knowledge, given that Uribe’s initial reaction to the trade seems to suggest that it was unexpected (again, per ESPN):
“”I respect their decision,” Uribe said through an interpreter. “One never knows what’s going to happen. If I play for another team, then I play for another team. I can’t control what happens. You have to take things as they come. It’s happened to me before. One day you’re here, one day you’re not. Thank God there are other teams that are interested in me.””
In any case, it appears that upon receiving Uribe’s (or his agent’s) trade request, they used it as an opportunity to acquire a reliever (Thomas) whom they’d been interested in for a while, with a couple of other players thrown in to make it work for both sides. It was clear in any case that the Dodgers needed to find more playing time for both Turner and Guerrero, and that left Uribe as the odd man out. Whether Uribe was “unhappy” with his situation or not, his agent was no doubt well aware that his chances of getting a good contract after this season depend on him playing regularly, and that was increasingly unlikely to happen in LA.
So the Braves get an immediate, significant upgrade at 3B (at least defensively, and probably offensively as well), plus a potential future upgrade in the bullpen (if Withrow can eventually return to form). The Dodgers get a reliever they wanted (Thomas), plus additional pitching depth, and free up playing time for two guys who are hitting like crazy, as well as saving a little money. And Uribe gets a chance to play regularly and earn another multi-million-dollar contract for next year. Seems like a good trade all around.
If Uribe wanted a trade, I don’t think he would say so. Still, it’s a bit hard for me to believe he wanted a trade considering how well positioned the Dodgers are. That’s a tough one though. Which would players generally prefer: starting on a mediocre team or 3rd on the depth chart on a really good team? For a guy like Uribe with two rings already, I can see how he’d be more interested in starting.
It sounds to me like his agent was looking out for his client, spoke with the team, and the team misinterpreted that as Juan wanting out.
Despite being something of a confessed Dodgers homer, the hagiography for Uribe drives me nuts. Here is a guy who has plus defensive skills at third, despite mediocre athleticism, and little else. He has a terrible approach at the plate – essentially a “close your eyes and swing for the fences” hitter in most counts, who would only lay off pitches that never came close to the zone – the only time he’d walk was when the opposing pitcher was in a bigger rut than he perpetually is. Yes, he had a short series in ’13 where he did well, and had ‘clutch hits’, but I’m not so sentimentally foolish that I think one ‘big hit’ can make up for a season of mediocrity; if the team had a third baseman who played consistently well, maybe fewer games would have been at a juncture where heroics were necessary. I’d prefer to have someone delivering consistently, than someone who swings at everything, and has the toxic combination of hitting into a lot of double plays AND striking out a lot. I have been very happy with Uribe’s diminished playing team this year, and I am not sad to see him go. I will take my chances of his doing a Tom Goodwin… because I think the team he’s most likely to kneecap is his own (as they used to say about Jeff van Gundy, in a different context…)