Braves Get Haul from Diamondbacks for Shelby Miller
The Braves have reportedly sent Shelby Miller to the Diamondbacks for 25-year-old outfielder Ender Inciarte, 23-year-old right-hander Aaron Blair, and last year’s number one overall pick, 21-year-old shortstop Dansby Swanson. The Diamondbacks get a good pitcher under control for three years, and the Braves continue their rebuilding process.
The return seems very strong for the Braves. Inciarte can play a capable center field, where his league average (ish) bat will play a lot better. He’ll step in immediately.
Swanson hit the ground running in A-ball, with a .193 ISO and as many strikeouts as walks. Before taking a job with the Braves, Kiley McDaniel put the shortstop in his top 25 prospects in the mid-season update, and there’s a sense that the Vanderbilt product could advance quickly. McDaniel said he was a “standout defensive shortstop” with an “advanced bat” before the draft.
McDaniel gave Blair a 55 grade before the season and said that “though the righty isn’t as flashy as the prospects ahead of him, there’s a sense among some that he might be the D-Backs’ best prospect right now. He may have the chance to show that this year, as a strong performance could put him in the majors earlier than expected.” Blair doesn’t have a lot of strikeouts in his game, but grounders and weak contact may make him a serviceable mid-rotation starter.
All in all, that’s a good return for three arbitration years of a veteran mid-rotation starter. Shelby Miller may have pitched like an ace last year, and the Braves may have followed the road map to fixing him to the tee. Throwing more high fastballs and cutters and ditching the change has led to his return to grace, but 2014’s poor season provides a taste of sobriety and a reason for a projection that looks more like an average pitcher.
Still, the Diamondbacks are all in after signing Zack Greinke to a monster deal. Now with Miller in the fold, they have a strong rotation, featuring Greinke, Miller, Patrick Corbin, and a host of options at the back end. They said all along they didn’t want a long rebuild process, and they put their prospects to use quickly, and now they’ve made a contender out of their team. And for the Braves, at least the guys they got could move quickly, and the wait to see how they did might not take that long either.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
This deal is just unbelievably bad for the D’Backs
It’s hard to shake the idea that Arizona [foolishly] just decided on a target here and committed to paying whatever it took. (I wanted to add “within reason” to the end of that sentence, but looking at that haul it just doesn’t seem reasonableness was a limiting factor.)
Whatever you think about him, the opportunity cost just seems so high here: surely shopping that package around would net you more than Shelby Miller.
That is the funniest part. How many GMs are pissed they didn’t just offer X starer for that package?
I guess the Braves were dealing with an inelastic product, String. *shrug*
“All in all, that’s a good return for a veteran mid-rotation starter.”
WTF are you talking about
You wanted me to say great? I could have said great.
You could have said unprecedented.
“The return seems very strong for the Braves.”
I mean, this is a (mostly) impartial baseball analytics site giving insta-news the best it can. If you wanted #HotTakes, ESPN.com is right over there ——>
Maybe the issue is calling him a veteran mid-rotation starter. Although which aspect of that statement is up for debate is… up for debate.
He has 3 years of service so veteran seems appropriate. He can’t be called a #1 starter. So what do you want a #2/3 starter to be called other than mid-rotation?
25 year olds aren’t usually referred to as veterans, I think is the sticking point.
What word would you use? He’s not a prospect. He’s not a rookie. He has three full years in the big leagues. He’s a young veteran, maybe, but I don’t see how the word doesn’t apply at all.
This is the D’Backs way.
Good trade for Arizona.
I’d like to thank Arizona for personally restocking the Braves farm.
Okay, I’ve done everything you’ve asked. Now please burn the pictures.
So the Diamondbacks gave up a player every bit as good as Miller… and then two more really good prospects. Excuse me wtf?
By my napkin math, this sets the market for Jose Fernandez at approximately two Mike Trouts.
What’s the market rate for a breeding pair with Mike Trout genes?
This package should be the basis of a Jose Fernandez trade.
Not a Shelby Miller trade.
This was nowhere close to what a Jose Fernandez should have gone for. Swanson was the #1 overall pick, yes, but in a draft that has widely been discussed as possibly the worst in major league history. Meanwhile Inciarte is a below average hitter (assuming regression from 2015) who the defensive metrics admittedly like a lot, so his WAR is strong if you put a lot of faith in defensive valuation. Then Aaron Blair is a solid but unspectacular back of the rotation starter who pitches to contact. That’s a massive overpay for Miller, I agree, yet the Marlins would still hang up the phone.
I think the phrase basis for a JF trade was accurate. It isn’t sufficient by itself, but it has the right centerpieces to build a trade around.
And the difference in value between Miller and Fernandez is so signficiant that it arguably makes little sense not to kick in the rest of your farm to get the right guy.
My point is precisely that this trade does not have the right centerpieces whatsoever to build a trade for Jose Fernandez. The Braves picked up three good pieces for Miller but no great ones, and it would take at least one legitimately great piece for Fernandez.
For all your certitude, reports are this morning that the Marlins were prepared to accept this package plus Corbin and Drury.
So yes, this was a viable centerpiece.
If that’s all Arizona needed to add then they undoubtedly would have and we’d be commenting about how stupid the Marlins were.
Let’s not get carried away, now.
Per MLBTR: Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Repbulic tweets that the package the D-backs sent to Atlanta to pry Miller away — Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair — “would not have come close” to what the team would’ve needed to acquire Fernandez from Miami, citing D-backs officials.
Man, I really liked this deal for Arizona too when it was first announced, before all these annoying details about what Atlanta received got in the way.
Shelby Miller’s 2015 WAR- 3.4
Ender Inciarte’s- 3.3
As a Braves fan, I would’ve probably been satisfied getting just Dansby in return.
Oh, and don’t forget about the Touki swindling earlier this year.
Lol @ D-Backs.
That swindling turned out to be entirely 1 sided for the D’Backs
Can’t wait to see who the Diamondbacks pick for the Braves in the 2016 draft.
They already picked me.
the toukki trade really just backed up a lot of the theory of valuation here. It really was swapping 6m for odds that work out to be worth about 6m. If Toukki washes out, it looks good for the Dbacks, if he turns into even a high leverage releiver the braves win.
In this case, It is hard to really see enough value in Miller… if he is what he was last year, he is a 3-4 WAR player, that is going to be 12 in the next 3 years, or roughly 70mil in value, with arb likely giving him about 10 per year, so he has 40 mil in surplus value… about what Swanson as a 10-25th prospect. So basically the Dbacks are thinking that Ender was a flash in the pan, and then still slightly overpaid.
I’m not sure I buy Ender “The Game” Inciarte being a three win player for long… except replacement level in Arizona’s right field isn’t zero, it’s negative whatever Yasmany Tomas is. Inciarte to Tomas is probably three wins at minimum.
The Ender’s Game nickname is also worth half a win at least.
The Toussaint trade was as much about clearing Bronson Arroyo’s salary off the books as the players involved. Clearing that salary was probably instrumental in having room to sign Greinke so there’s that. (In one of those glorious ironies, the Dodgers are now paying Arroyo as they took that on in the Alex Wood trade.)
The Dbacks also got a useful middle infielder in GOsselin and while Toussaint is still a promising 19 yo pitcher, he has a career 5.74 ERA in rookie and A ball.
Not sure how that deal looks like a swindle for the Braves at this point
For one season of Jason Heyward:
One All-Star year of Shelby Miller
Tyrell Jenkins
Four years of Ender Inciarte
The No. 1 pick of the 2015 Draft
A top-100 prospect in Aaron Blair
I love you Jason Heyward. Even though you’re gone, you just keep on giving so much to this team.
Technically for one year of Jason Heyward and two years of Jordan Walden but that’s kinda splitting hairs
COPPY 2016!
I honestly hate the Braves. Swindled us for Justin Upton, swindled us for Touki Touissant, and swindled us in the Shelby Miller trade. Pretty sure our FO has Stockholm’s Syndrome and thoroughly enjoys getting owned by the Braves. Hope Greinke goes undefeated.
This is laughably bad for Arizona.
It’s an overpay long term for the Dbacks but I love it. They have Goldschmidt and Pollock in their prime and under control for 3 years. Goldy is a once in a generation talent and you have to go all in during this 3 year window. They had the best collection of young position players this side of Wrigley. Starting pitching was the only thing holding them back. Now w Greinke, Miller and a 100% Corbin 1-2-3 and young upside arms like, De Larosa, Anderson, Bradley, Ray and Shipley to fill out the back end I think they’re the team to beat in the West. It’s going to fun watching them go toe to toe w LA and SF the next three years. Its nice to sees a GM notice an opportunity and grow pair and go for it.
I remember thinking this.
Yeah the 2014 Padres finished the year with the 2nd most runs scored and brought that entire position core back in 2015 and added Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller to the top of their rotation.
To be fair the D’backs didn’t start from a pretty garbage roster like the Padres did.
You guys have a good chance to contend every year for the next 3 years. Its a gamble but a good one.
“Goldy is a once in a generation talent”
How long are generations where you live?
How in the world is Goldschimdt a “once in a generation talent?” Trout, Harper, and Donaldson all finished more than 1 WAR above him last year (and Votto tied him). I won’t count 2014 since he only played 109 games. In 2013, he finished 9th.
I would venture to say there are several players in his generation who are as good or better.
I’m sincerely glad you’re excited; that’s a fun feeling.
I also sincerely hope your team wins a title in the next few years because that will be the only way to take the sting out of the disaster in the making here.
I can at least understand it, from the D-Backs side. They’ve weakened the Dodgers rotation and are going to field a division winning level of talent. It’s exciting to see an owner who wants to win right the hell now. The Braves are exciting in a more stock speculation kind of way.
The problem isn’t that they gave up the future for Shelby.
It’s that they gave up a player just as good as Shelby for Shelby, while creating a Yasmani-sized hole in the process.
Recapping some of the Diamondbacks 1st round picks:
2016: N/A (loss of pick for Greinke)
2015: Swanson (traded to Atlanta)
2014: Toussaint (traded to Atlanta)
2013: Shipley
2013: Blair (traded to ATL)
2012: Trahan (33 wRC+ in A+)
2011: Bauer (traded to Cleveland)
2011: Bradley
2010: Did not sign
2009: Bochering (traded to Houston
2009: Pollock
2009: Davidson (traded to White Sox)
2008: Schlereth (traded to Detroit)
2008: Miley (traded to Boston)
2007: Parker (traded to Oakland)
2006: Scherzer (traded to Detroit)
holy hell
The sad thing is that’s still way better than the Padres.
And the Mariners
As a Mets homer, that package would’ve been a good starting point to nab someone in the rotation. The Indians probably don’t hang the phone up either.
For Shelby Miller?
Wow…we really Munsoned that one
Wow…we really Schruted that one
I would LOVE to hear what the second best offer was
It will be fun watching the genius Freidman spend 300M and horde his prospects like Fabrege Eggs and still finish 2nd to Dave Stewart and the Dbacks. It’s funny the Fangraphs reaction to this trade sounds a lot like after everyone piled on the idiot Dayton Moore after the James Shields trade. Moore hoisted the World Series trophy way before Friedman or Beane. Now we’ll watch Stewart before those two as well.
Yes, Shields sure helped those Royals to that WS title this year.
Do Royals fans (or the Royals, for that matter) still call it “The James Shields Trade?” I’m not a KC guy, but I think I’m going with “The Wade Davis trade” from here on…..
…so the Snakes will win it all in 2019 thanks largely to shutdown reliever Gabe Speier?
I agree Jim. This is the same site that attacks organizations like the Giants and Royals for the anti Saber metric acquisitions. Both these teams have won the last two world series. If FanGraphs says it’s a bad trade for the Diamondbacks, well it’s actually a great trade then.
It’s all about The Will To Win
Attttaaaaaaaaack!!!
Your trolling is really getting old. And your comments have no value whatsoever (and judging by all the downvotes you’ve accumulated, I’m not in the minority here).
The first thought that came to my mind was “Old School is that you?” then I noticed he posted the same backwards nonsense in response (above me)
I dont think anyone’s issue with this trade is the prospect portion.
My personal reason for making fun of it is that Inciarte is just as good as Miller.
I never knew that both those teams won the last two world series.
It certainly looks like a huge haul for now but shouldn’t we wait until we find out whether Swanson is good? Or is that no fun?
It’s more or less irrelevant. They also traded a major league player who is arguably as good as Miller.
We can debate the risk of Swanson as a prospect but attaching him to Inciarte is curious at best. Adding another solid prospect in Blair, insane.
Well, the Diamondbacks certainly don’t think that Inciarte is as good as Miller so it’s possible that they are right. I don’t get the huge rush to judgement when we have no idea on how it will actually turn out (other than to generate content that is).
This continues a theme where major league teams value defense at a much, much lower level than defensive WAR does.
Clearly Arizona values Miller above Incierte. I think it’s safe to assume Miller is more valuable going forward. But 5 years of control for a kid who just got to 3 WAR is pretty damn valuable. Considering they were equal players last year I don’t think saying he’s “arguably” as good is a stretch.
I tend to agree with your overall point. We spend too much time dreaming on potential and ignoring MLB production. I didn’t mind the Addison Russel trade or the James Shields trade. But this is not the same. This is Cost Controlled big leaguer+ Top 10ish prospect+ Top 100 prospect for a guy who’s never performed better than a mid rotation guy for a whole year.
This smells more like the Grandal/Kemp swap. I can’t think of any context where this could be considered a good decision.
jdbolick,
It at least continues a theme that the Diamondbacks value defense at a much, much lower level.
What’s the argument for Inciarte being as good as Miller? WAR? If that’s the logic behind it then Inciarte is also worth a peak-level Mariano Rivera.
“Pinch-hitting Mike Trout for Drew Butera certainly looks like a good move now, but shouldn’t we wait until we find out whether Trout gets a hit?”
That’s stupid because we already know that Trout is a better hitter than Butera. Your example should be that you should pinch-hitting for Marlon Byrd (101 OPS+) with Swanson because 1st overall picks average a 105 OPS+. Again, that’s a different argument and I’m not sure how you can resolve it without knowing how Swanson will turn out.
I mean trades are usually measured by the perceived value when it’s made and not down the road after everything has played out.
If the Braves traded Jace Peterson for Jose Fernandez and Fernandez immediately blew out his arm while Peterson put up a bunch of 4 WAR seasons it was still a dumb trade for the Marlins even though they “won” it after the fact.
Don’t confuse whether if it was a good idea with the results. Now in your hypothetical it would be a terrible idea but that doesn’t change the result. Only the results matter – nothing else does. Now of course the “process” (or whatever you want to your decision making plan) is there to help you try to get good results but again, the result is important, not the thinking behind the decision.
Signing Barry Zito to a massive contract was a good move by the Giants because they won the World Series.
Results are everything. But isn’t it a little obtuse to ignore the means by which you attempt to acquire those results.
I know you’re focused on minor leaguers here (which is odd considering a Major League player is involved), but it still seems like a stretch to suggest that the uncertainty outweighs the upside until future results prove otherwise.
Sure it’s more accurate to analyze a trade in retrospect. That’s not what this site aims to do.
If you want to know what the Braves think of your prospects would it not occur to you to check FanGraphs? Wowser.