Mets, Pirates Exchange Jon Niese, Neil Walker
The Mets looked like quite possibly the favorites to sign Ben Zobrist, right up until they didn’t do that. So now they’ve gone ahead and re-purposed their “Welcome” sign to read “Neil Walker” instead, picking up the second baseman from the Pirates for Jon Niese (pending physicals) . It’s a straight one-for-one, with Walker set to make almost $11 million, and Niese set to make $9 million. Walker is then eligible for free agency, while Niese has a pair of club options.
For the Mets, Walker subs in for Zobrist in theory, but he’s really subbing in for Daniel Murphy. And the convenient thing about that is Walker, overall, is awful similar to Murphy. He switch-hits, yeah, and he has a bit of a different personality, and Murphy strikes out less often, but these are slightly above-average hitters who are probably slightly below-average defenders at second. Walker projects for a 113 wRC+, while Murphy projects at 109. Both of them are 30, although Murphy will sooner turn 31. Walker doesn’t bring everything that Zobrist would’ve, particularly beyond just the season ahead, but this is almost like an extension of the status quo. Walker is a fine player, and the Mets have plenty of excellent players.
On the Pirates end, Walker has long been the subject of trade rumors, particularly with his free agency approaching. In Niese, the Pirates have added rotation depth, and depth that could be controlled for another three years if that’s what they prefer. Niese’s club options are worth $10 million and $11 million, and he’s looked like a decent pitcher in the past. He has a track record of being in the vicinity of average, around some worrisome shoulder problems.
Niese did just lose some strikeouts. You never want a pitcher to lose strikeouts. What he didn’t do was lose any velocity, and now he gets to join up with Ray Searage. And I feel obligated to point something out — Niese projects for a 4.13 FIP, according to Steamer. Shelby Miller projects at 4.22. Mike Leake also projects at 4.22. I don’t mean to suggest that’s everything, or that Niese ought to be on that level, but that is an objective forecast. He could easily be restored to being an average starting pitcher, and these days those go for more than $10 – 11 million a year. That’s probably the Pirates’ angle.
For the Mets, Niese was clearly expendable, and they wanted help in the infield. And it’s better to gamble on a hitter than on a pitcher with a shoulder history. But the Pirates could pull some value of their own out of this, and it wouldn’t even require that much Searage magic. Just Jon Niese pitching more or less like himself. Fold back in a few more strikeouts, and you have a No. 3 or No. 4 starter with a modest salary. It’s not nothing.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
I think this takes the award for the most balanced trade I have ever seen.
Kendrys Morales for Jason Vargas
Pretty much my reaction too. Even as a fan of one of the teams with a fair amount of history and sentiment invested in one of these players (Niese) it’s hard for me to see this as anything but a smart win-win deal for both sides. I’ll be sad to see Niese go but it’s been clear for a while that he’s worth more in someone else’s rotation than as a sixth starter on the Mets — and Walker is the most perfect replacement for a departing Murphy that you could hope for, at a very reasonable price. (My eyes have a hard time believing the defensive stats that Walker is only a run or two better defensively than Murph, but they’re very closely comparable players anyhow.)
I think this is a big win for the Mets. The Pirates are paying $30 million over 3 years for 3-4 WAR from Niese. The Mets are paying a little more than $10 million over 1 year for 2-2.5 WAR from Walker, then likely collecting a comp pick in next years draft.
Niese’s options are team options so if he has a bad year the Pirates can let him walk. This is a solid move for the Mets, Walker’s consistency is as appealing as the 1-year of control. Herrera should be ready to contribute in 2016. It’s a good deal for both sides. Another component is the spot it opens for Bartolo!
Niese has team options of $500k in each of the two options, so the Pirates are in a great position there.
The $500k are the buyout figures.
Definitely, that’s what I meant to say. Good clarification.
Where are you seeing that Walker is set to make $8 mil?
MLBTR’s arbitration model estimates Walker for $10.7 mil.
Walker’s salary is pending arbitration, anticipated to be in the $10.6MM range.
If mets offer Walker the comp slot salary, Walker takes it. That is a large over-pay
If Walker has a good year he will be worth more than the qualifying offer in the open market. He’s a 2-3 year contract guy at 12-14 a year. I don’t see him accepting the QO.
Colby Rasmus was in the same range, IMO. If the value of the QO jumps up to 16M, I could see him taking it.
Colby Rasmus has documented personal circumstances that led him to accept the QO.
Seems uncertain. His line is nearly identical to Daniel Murphy. Murphy received and rejected the QO this year.
Walker’s decision could hinge on what Murphy ultimately gets. Aside from k-rates their eerily good comps.
This looks solid for both clubs. As a Mets fan I’m hoping they leverage Walker’s splits (123 wRC+ vs. RHP) to allow Dilson Herrera to start vs. LHP (+100 milb ops edge) and some RHP and using Walker to give Wright a rest in those RHP games. The wild card is whether Walker can fake it at 3B. It was his primary position in the minors but he’s got scant mlb time there.
I’d rather see them use Wilmer Flores as the short side platoon partner, and let Herrera get full time ABs against both sides in AAA.
I wonder if there’s any credence to the theory that defense isn’t quite as important to the Mets because their pitching staff strikes out so many guys.
Intuitively, you’d think more strikeouts not only means fewer balls in play but also quicker innings, meaning fewer defensive opportunities per 9 innings.
If high k-guys are better at runner prevention then that’d make sense but if you’re allowed the same number of baserunners wouldn’t fewer balls in play result in fewer DP opportunities? More DPs would seem to lead to “quicker” innings if the number of baserunners remained constant right?
Royals in 5.
Let me work my magic.
Thanks again.
As a west coast fan with no ties to either team but a sense of history, I’m kind of sorry to see Walker leave the Pirates because of the link between his father and Clemente.
The Mets should overpay for Yovani Gallardo.
He’s allegedly asking 4/60. I’d go 4/70 in a minute.
A 29 year old Gallardo is worth way more than a 34 year old Ben Zobrist. Way more than $14 million over 4 years.
To be clear, overpay relative to what he’s asking, not overpay relative to what he’s worth.
That doesn’t make the least bit of sense, honestly. The Mets could just go with any of Verrett, Montero, or Gilmartin, or re-sign Colón for a heck of a lot cheaper than $60 or $70 million. And they’ve got Wheeler coming back.
Keep in mind that Dilson Herrera, Walker’s heir apparent, was considered expendable by the Pirates because of Alen Hanson.
The Pirates will be fine at 2b, and just added a pitcher with an xFIP- of 97 over the past six years, and despite his shoulder issues, is 31st in all of baseball in IP over that time.
Walker has been good for awhile, but I have zero problem with the Bucs moving him… if they get enough return. Walker is not a $10 million per year talent, and I would not be surprised if he begins to slowly regress. He’s a nice player, overrated to a degree by Pirare fans because he is a hometown guy, but IF the Bucs can get, say, maybe a younger infielder and a prospect for Neil, do it.
Wait, what? The Pirates have already traded Walker. That’s what this article is about.
One other benefit to consider, from the team’s perspective, is that these contracts usually are great trading chips, especial when they have one or more team options, even on the contracts that tend to be “Neutral”.
In most cases, even if the player doesn’t play as well as he was projected, and only plays at a 1 WAR level, the low salary will still makes them valuable to at least one other team, even if only as a backup or a stopgap.
Even though Niese just had his worst year during the contract, the low salary that remains on the low-risk team options, made him a valuable asset. This allowed the Mets to trade him for some value instead of letting him walk away in free agency, which would have happened had they not signed the the extension.
They managed to get a valuable 2B in return in case Herrera doesn’t work out or to platoon him with and Walker may get them a draft pick next year if he walks away.
Woops. I meant to post this on http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2016-free-agents-who-could-have-been/