Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 2/24/26

Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody. I’m happy and relieved that we managed to get through prospect fortnight — I hope you all enjoyed the content. If you have any further questions on the list, picks to click, or anything else fire away.

Datt Mamon: Long-term, do you like M. Clark or DeLauter more?

Brendan Gawlowski: Clark. If you could guarantee me that DeLauter would be healthy… Probably still Clark but I’d have to think about it.

Guest: People talk a lot about players being able to spin the ball being necessary to create good breaking ball shapes. What physical traits lead to being able to do that?

Brendan Gawlowski: Whether it’s in the wrist or the fingers, some guys just have an innate ability to generate more spin, and that gives you more wiggle room to play around with shapes and grips. There isn’t a 1:1 correlation between spin ability and the quality of your breaking balls, though.

blackjack: Can Charlie Condon regain elite prospect status?

Brendan Gawlowski: Doubtful. If he maxes out, he’s probably not down long enough to fly up lists anyway.

War2D2: Congrats on the release of the Top 100(ish)! One of the things I most look forward to every year on the site. Thanks for all the hard work you put into it.

Brendan Gawlowski: Appreciate it. Mildly amusing anecdote… Sometime Saturday night, I was chatting with Eric and asking about our progress and he was like “We’re doing great, this might be the first time since Kiley was here that I don’t have to pull an all nighter before the list drops!” And sure enough…

Mike: I know he’s not a prospect anymore, but how would you compare Colson Montgomery to Carson Williams at the moment? The downside risks with the whiffs seem pretty similar, Colson obviously showed more in mlb than Williams last year but I’m not sure how much that impacts either’s eval

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m more scared of Carson’s swing and miss, personally. And while I’ve always been sort of the high man on Colson, the big-league production is a legitimate separator between the two right now.

Craig: Thoughts on who might make it to the big leagues first between Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan on the Mariners?

Brendan Gawlowski: Anderson. Sloan needs to stretch out.

BP: Who was your favorite player as a kid?

Brendan Gawlowski: Charles Gipson.

ponopoly: Any idea on an ETA for the Rockies prospect list?

Brendan Gawlowski: After spring training. They’re one of the systems I’ll be tackling down in Phoenix this year. Lot of interesting DSL players, plenty of guys where it makes sense to see if something changed over the offseason.

NFP: How do you/Eric/James and scouts in general account for the ability of players to make drastic changes? If you scout a guy and he has a grooved swing, is there reason beyond peripheral considerations (small school background, multi-sport athlete, two-way player) to round up on his ability to improve bat control or otherwise make swing changes?

Brendan Gawlowski: You’re looking for some blend of athleticism and aptitude. Maybe you see something in a game or BP that makes you think he either can/can’t find another gear. The ability to see them move and get sustained reps in BP is one of the bigger advantages to being in the park re: video scouting.

Tim L: Are any of the Giants young arms best suited to grab a starter spot even though they seemingly have a 1-5 set? Or rather, which one would be first guy up for the inevitable Mahle/Houser injury?

Brendan Gawlowski: I still like Birdsong.

Sirras: Are there any philosophical differences in projecting/evaluating prospects between you and Eric?

Brendan Gawlowski: With the caveat that we’re generally not drastically apart on things, by training I tend to be more optimistic/see paths for guys with approach or swing and miss warts. Coming into this job, I thought I’d be the high guy on really young/talented guys, but we’ve tended to be aligned on pushing that group (Yolfran/Celesten making the 100 is a good example).

Brendan Gawlowski: I tend to be higher on the Laz’s and Spencer Jones’s of the world. Lot of risk but sometimes these guys turn into Aaron Judge.

Dodgers Blue: In reviewing the latest The Board, it seems like there are very few impact arms with expected arrival dates in 2026.  Is that your take as well – that this may be a very lean year of future star rotational pieces coming?

Brendan Gawlowski: Not at all, I think it’s a very strong year for pitching. And I think that’s reflected in the list, there are more pitchers — and more pitchers high on the list — than usual.

Brendan Gawlowski: When’s the last time we had a pitcher ranked third overall?

idk: Are there any common threads to the prospects ZiPS and other projection systems like more than scouts?

Brendan Gawlowski: Yeah, they’re factoring in performance to a greater degree. RJ Schreck is a good example of a player that scouts mostly don’t like a whole lot but he lights up the models.

Guest: Did you read the article driveline put out in the last week discussing their findings on repeatability/adjustability as it relates to command? would be interested on the scout’s perspective on their findings

Brendan Gawlowski: Yes. I love the Bernstein’s Hammer analogy — elite blacksmiths will always hit the center of the blade, despite never having the exact same swing path — and think it applies nicely. I think this could be an example of two sides talking past each other a little bit. When scouts say a guy “repeats” I don’t think they really mean “does everything identically every time.” It’s more about getting to release in a good spot. When I write that a guy “doesn’t repeat well” it’s meant to indicate that the delivery is a mess and that he doesn’t get himself in a good spot to release the ball consistently.

millville meltdown: do you have any guys who maybe you didn’t pick to click, or aren’t in the 100, who are just personal faves who you’re rooting for?

Brendan Gawlowski: Plenty. And as for the picks to click… we restricted ourselves to 25. It was kind of funny to read a comment along the lines of ‘shook that nobody picked JD Dix’ after I hemmed and hawed internally about including him on my list and ultimately picked somebody else.

Michael – FG since 2016: How many Curve burgers have you eaten?
Also Who is the best pro prospect I’ll see in Altoona this year.

Brendan Gawlowski: Zero! Never made the trip. For the second part: You might get Valdez to start the year. If things go very well, maybe Florentino? If things go very, VERY well, Seth Hernandez at the end.

Mike: Zack Veen apparently has sobered up after real challenges with substance abuse, and put on a ton of muscle (he said that he was not eating well and was down to 200 lbs, and is now up to 245). Is there any reason to have hope there? He hit a massive pump (468 ft) yesterday to walk off the white sox

Brendan Gawlowski: Sure. Talented kid. Hope he’s in a better spot in his life first and foremost, but this is the kind of thing that absolutely could put a guy in a better spot to play.

millville meltdown: do you ever find yourself scouting athletes from other sports? what grades would you give, say, eileen gu?

Brendan Gawlowski: Definitely. Can’t say I watched a ton of figure skating this cycle but that’s one of those sports where the body control stands out immediately.

mekonsrock: Thanks for chatting, BG!  In the Rainiel Rodriguez writeup, James Fegan said Rai-Rod’s “early minor league framing numbers are nuts.”  So, (1)how predictive are MILB framing numbers, and (2)where if anywhere are they available to the general public? Thanks again!

Brendan Gawlowski: In my experience, they’re not always all that reliable. One factor is that the level of umpiring is just so much lower, which introduces a big variable. It’s also a skill that players can improve drastically, so, particularly for guys who aren’t good at it, it’s a tough thing to project just from the data. None of this is a comment on Rainiel, to be clear.

Brendan Gawlowski: As for that data, private only I believe. There are enough twitter/substack analysts out there now that I can’t promise someone hasn’t made it available though.

Ryan: Who are you top guys from the DSL league last year outside of guys on the top 100 or picks to click?

Brendan Gawlowski: Guys with 40+’s or better. Yilver De Paula is a sneaky one that I’m excited to see.

Tacoby Bellsbury: Who’s got 80-grade ballpark food?

Brendan Gawlowski: Nobody, but pound for pound Tacoma does a good job. Hillsboro too.

Avoid The Clap: Owen Murphy has dominated the low minors in a smallish sample and returned strong following TSJ. He has lower velocity but great fastball traits. Assuming continued health, what would you be looking from him in 2026 to take the next step?

Brendan Gawlowski: Maintaining his stuff/command over longer outings. If he does, he’ll be on the 100.

gamer: how much stock do you put into large velo swings during small samples of spring training? does your eval of a guy like bishop letson immediately change when you see that he can hold 96 across an outing? Or do you want to wait to see him hold it over a longer period of time?

Brendan Gawlowski: It can be encouraging, especially if there’s a reason to think it’s sustainable, but you don’t want to get caught chasing the gun too much.

Brendan Gawlowski: I once went nuts projecting Case Williams after he gained a tick or two in the best start of his life; he didn’t sustain that. In hindsight, I should’ve been looking more for the “why” than the “what”

WagnerCrystal: I dunno if you’re working on the Giants system, but any interesting trends or philosophies you’ve noticed under the newish (Posey) management

Brendan Gawlowski: Their drafts have been a little odd. Really like what they’ve done in Latin America the last year or three.

Inspector Houlihan: You know what, Gawlowski?  You draw a lot of water for the flim-flam you’ve been hawkin’.  Hows about you make with the feet and dip the bill.

Brendan Gawlowski: Thank you for your punctual attendance, Inspector.

Keith: Any general thoughts on the 2026 draft class? Any guys that have stuck out since the start of the season?

Brendan Gawlowski: I wish I could have watched more, prospect week kept me away from the tube a little bit. Flora looks really sharp; Liam Peterson less so, at least in week one when I was watching. I like Strosnider.

Ike: You have 4 Mariners prospects (hitters) that have a Future Value of 50. If you had to pick one of those 4 (Farmelo, Montes, Arroyo, Celesten) to exceed that average regular projection to become an all-star, who would it be?

Brendan Gawlowski: In order of likelihood to become a star: Farmelo, Montes/Celesten, Arroyo

Mr. Met: Of Santucci, Wenninger, and Thorton, who do you like best?

Brendan Gawlowski: The guy we put on the 100

Steve: What do you make of the trajectory of the Cardinals pitching development & acquisition processes given the changes within the Front Office?

Brendan Gawlowski: Need more time. Not a pithy comment: It’s one thing to say all the right things, it’s another to demonstrably prove that you can effect change.

Nils: Speaking of catcher framing, is that something that you guys will start to fade out of scouting (assuming ABS coming into play more)?

Brendan Gawlowski: I’ll be paying a lot of attention to how framing works in the new environment. I think it’ll still be a factor, there’s a disincentive to challenge borderline pitches early in games or in certain counts, so it’ll still matter. But you’d think it would matter quite a bit less.

Brendan Gawlowski: The thing I’m even more curious about is whether ABS changes how catchers set up to control the running game.

Nick: Do you think JR Ritchie will be ready to contribute at the MLB level this season or would he be best served spending the full season in the minors?

Brendan Gawlowski: I expect him to debut this season. Health permitting as always for a pitcher.

O’s: So what’s the story on Enrique Bradfield? Will he become an O’s regular, or is he doomed to be a pinch runner and defensive replacement?

Brendan Gawlowski: I’ll split the gap; solid fourth OF.

NFP: Every offseason you see how some guy added xyz pitch, changed his arm slot, added 2-3 ticks of this and that – do players go to Driveline/Tread-types with a recommendation or agenda provided by their team, or are teams getting credit for third party development?

We can see teams are prioritizing “types” of pitchers (e.g., Boston with supinator/cut-fastball types like Sonny Gray and Marcus Phillips) and there’s some level of biomechanics scouting on the hitting side to ID guys capable of bat speed gains beyond just force plate measurements. But who’s really doing the work other than the player?

Brendan Gawlowski: This feels like an article idea. The short answer: all combinations of things. Players may make changes from working with team personnel in the offseason. Others may go to a facility that works hand in glove with their club’s PD staff. Others may do the exact opposite thing their team wants them to do.

Brendan Gawlowski: Also: For every successful story you hear of a guy going to a third party and taking a step forward, there are plenty that go the other way too

sodo mojo: What would it take for Luke Stevenson to jump into the 50 tier this season.  The SSS debut was encouraging if he can continue that approach at Everett is that enough or do you need to see what he can do at AA?

Brendan Gawlowski: Depends what he looks like at Everett. Another who was on the PTC long list and just ran into a numbers game.

Guest: Yeremy Cabrera popped in both Zips’s and OOPSY’s top 100. He seemed like a bit of a low-key add on in the Gore trade. What do you think of him? Is he an FV45? Why or why not?

Brendan Gawlowski: A little disappointed in the lack of year-over-year growth to be honest. Liked him in 2024, looked like the same guy last spring.

Billy Ocean: Which organizations have a reputation for tinkering with a prospect and ruining what made them interesting to begin with? Like “I’m going to downgrade this guy a bit because he’s in [Organization X] and they’re going to inevitably mess up his swing”

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s less that teams “ruin” guys (although it’s happened) and more that some systems seem less able to help guys get better/shore up obvious weak spots.

Different Ryan: In evaluating a pitcher, does it move the needle much if he’s got, say, five or six grade 50 pitches, versus four? You can’t throw them all at the same time, but occasionally it might predict future success, yes?

Brendan Gawlowski: All else equal, the additional quality pitch would be a value add. If nothing else, it’s an indication that the guy has pretty good aptitude if he can really throw five average pitches.

Jim: Which team (other than the Pirates) has the best scouting department?

Brendan Gawlowski: Milwaukee’s international group does tremendous work; Tampa’s pro group stands out immediately as well.

LenynSosaTruther: You see Sam Antonachi go yard pullside at 109 EV? Do you have a favorite among the collection of White Sox 25-35 game power grinders

Brendan Gawlowski: I did see that; be cautious with spring training batted ball outcomes.

Kate: Really enjoyed prospect week, great job!  Which team lists are coming up?  Any idea when they’ll drop?

Brendan Gawlowski: We’re tag-teaming the Tigers. Some blend of NYY/NYM/ATL on deck and in the hole.

Brendan Gawlowski: We’re trying to grind through some Florida clubs before I get out to AZ. Eric is already out and about.

What a tool: How exactly do you project a prospect’s hit tool? Power, speed, even fielding to a certain extent, I’m sure you can get a good feel just by looking at his build, but hitting seems more skills-based than the other tools

Brendan Gawlowski: There are a bunch of things I’m looking for/asking as I watch a player. How does the swing look? Is this an adjustable barrel? How do his feet work? How about his hands? What’s his bat speed? What is his bat speed going to look like at maturity? Does he see spin well? Is he passive/patient or is he looking to roll the pole?

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m inclined to project on guys who either make a lot of hard contact or guys where it looks right and they maybe just need a little more strength to pull it all off; Nimmala a good example of the latter.

Keith: Are the angels getting any better at developing pitchers? Seems like they are finally investing – do you think it will pay off or is their system flawed?

Brendan Gawlowski: Another one where we’ll need a little time. There are a couple of signs that’ll tell us if something different is happening: I’ll be paying attention to how often guys are throwing fastballs, for one. In the longer run, let’s see if they keep targeting/prioritizing guys with arm strength but bad FB shape

Brendan Gawlowski: To be clear, I think that player population could be underrated. But ideally you’d be doing something to either change the shape/slot or working on the secondaries. And instead a lot of these guys just throw a bunch of fastballs.

Derek in Little Rock: Thoughts on Ethan Holliday going into 2026?  Scary K-rate in his first (small) sample of pro ball, and some of the shine wore off before the draft, but you’d think if anyone can make adjustments, it’s a guy with MLB bloodlines (his organization’s track record of development notwithstanding)

Brendan Gawlowski: Not to be a broken record on the subject but the late-season Low-A cameos for high school draftees are a really tough assignment, one I’m mostly inclined to give people a pass on.

Metties: What does a 70 FV pitcher look like? I believe the last one FG gave a 70 to was MackGore

Brendan Gawlowski: The way the FV grades are structured is meant to represent value rather than a player’s scouting grades. In other words, a lot of the top 50 arms would be 70’s on the scouting scale, but the way pitchers get hurt/throw a lower volume of innings these days makes it hard to put a 70 FV on them.

org the complex: Do you think teams should be able to trade all draft picks?

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t think we should have a draft at all but if we’re going to do it, then yes.

org the complex: Do you think teams get good value when they cut underslot deals at the top of the draft with the purpose of overslotting later?

Brendan Gawlowski: Sometimes yes sometimes no. Perfectly fine strategy but you have to execute.

Billy Ocean: Should Lagrange be in the Yankee bullpen now, “only so many bullets” type mentality?

Brendan Gawlowski: Justifiable to do it.

Jaybee: How much run will K McGonigle get this year?

Brendan Gawlowski: A lot, I think. May not break camp but he’s pretty darn close to ready.

NFP: Rough timeline for the O’s list? Thank you!

Brendan Gawlowski: They’re going to be toward the back. Eric has a Florida trip planned for early April and they’re one of the clubs he’ll get a look at.

Dodgers Blue: Can you explain “I don’t think we should have a draft at all….”?

Brendan Gawlowski: I think players should get to choose their employers.

Brendan Gawlowski: I also think a CFB-like signing day would be way more exciting than the draft.

Dynasty Player: Do you have any “Two Year Dart Throws” you like beyond Juan Sanchez and Angel De Los Santos and the guys Eric liked? Ideally toolsy far away guys that could pop like a Florentino?

Brendan Gawlowski: The short answer is all the 40+ DSL/ACL guys. I would not personally put a PTC on any of the teens who haven’t played in games yet.

millville meltdown: what are the most ridiculously extreme (in either direction) tools you’ve seen in your time?

Brendan Gawlowski: Judge/Stanton BP’s are ridiculous. The way Braiden Ward could leg out a double on a routine groundball to right field.

Oaktown Blues: “be cautious with Spring training batted ball outcomes” – just typical sample size concerns or is the ball different?

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s relatively high altitude so pitches don’t break and the ball carries extremely well. But you’re right, the ball is another variable. We’re far enough away from 2019 that I’m less and less concerned about a game-changing ball switcharoo with each passing season but it’s always possible.

Karl Hungus: How important is physical attributes like hand size, finger-to-palm ratio, etc. when projecting/teaching secondary pitches?

Brendan Gawlowski: Good question; I’ll ask some pitching folks. Follow up next week.

Oaktown Blues: Does Joshua Kuroda-Grauer have some latent power potential? He’s been basically a slap hitter in the minors, but he’s putting up good EVs this Spring and he’s bigger than I realized

Brendan Gawlowski: Possibly; I’d want to see what it looks like this year vs. last season before commenting specifically but guys can get stronger/change their swing in a way that leads to harder contact.

RE: no draft: With all due respect, I don’t want to emulate anything about college football. I don’t want one team to have the ability to grab a huge share of the best recruits.

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m not a huge fan of bonus pools and restricting amateur bonuses, but that system is compatible with a signing day format.

Ozzie: Am I crazy or is De Vries being underated by most everyone? Dude was 18 last year and put up a 144 wRC+ in AA. I just don’t see how he isn’t a consensus top 5 guy.

Brendan Gawlowski: The five guys ahead of him on our list were pretty good, too. And, look, I love the guy too but a 144 wRC+ in 20 games is not a thing to go nuts over in and of itself. Especially since a third of them were in Amarillo.

RE: no draft: Would no draft be the death of small market teams?

Brendan Gawlowski: No

Guest: When do you think Duno is up for CIN? What is his closest big league comp?

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s going to be a couple years. He’s ridiculously toolsy but he’s a catcher and he was in A-ball last year. He’s not on the fast track.

romorr: Can you think of a prospect like Honeycutt for the Orioles, who struck out 40% of the time, and still made the majors? Not even a useful player, but just made the majors in any capacity.

Brendan Gawlowski: None come to mind immediately. Steven Moya had a season like that but made more contact as he matured.

RE: no draft: “I’m not a huge fan of bonus pools and restricting amateur bonuses”

What would you propose then?

Brendan Gawlowski: Pay the guy what he’s worth on the open market

Guest: When you see that a team blatantly has zero faith in a top prospect, does it affect your evaluations at all? Like Lawlar or Rushing

Brendan Gawlowski: It certainly raises questions…

Brendan Gawlowski: For a team, it’s something to dig into. And you may well find something that makes you disinclined to project heavily. But I wouldn’t sand down Lawlar’s hit tool JUST because the dbacks keep finding other guys to play instead of him.

Mariners!: Now, put Farmelo, Arroyo, Montes, and Celesten in order of most likely to become an above average everyday player.

Brendan Gawlowski: Above average? I think you’ve got it all sorted right there.

Guest: do you still view zebby matthews as a 3/4 starter?

Brendan Gawlowski: He can still do that, yes.

Dodgers Blue: Can you rank, in order of preference to you, the traits you look for in a young catching prospect?

Brendan Gawlowski: Defensively: athleticism to handle throwing/framing/blocking; strong kid with physicality to withstand the position; personality to work with pitchers/game plan.

Brendan Gawlowski: If you’ve got all of that, if you can do anything at all at the plate, we’re off to a great start.

Dan Norman Lear: This is likely a larger than a chat question, but do you foresee any kind of boomerang effect on the development of starting pitching? The threshold keeps drifting lower and lower; now 140 innings feels like an acceptable number. At what point are starters not being used enough, and a balance is found?

Brendan Gawlowski: I think it keeps dropping until the rules change. If anything, we see more likely to go the other way. If, say, we move to a 154-game schedule and bake a few more offdays into the season and you have 13 pitchers already and functionally a 14th with the way teams option the last guy on/off the roster… You can go to the bullpen pretty early.

Brendan Gawlowski: If you want workloads to increase again, you need an 11-man pitching staff.

RE: no draft: “Pay the guy what he’s worth on the open market”

I don’t see why this wouldn’t end up with the large market teams outbidding the small market teams for most of the top guys. And maybe you don’t care about that, but it is an entertainment business at the end of the day.

Brendan Gawlowski: Devil’s advocate; the prem is pretty popular, no?

Douglas: What improvements would Wenniger need to make to pass Tong as a big league rotation option for 2026?

Brendan Gawlowski: Less about improvements, more about how he might just be more capable of turning a lineup over multiple times. We’ll see, it’s a possibility.

DBRuns: Cleveland fan here. Did they whiff at 1:1 in 2024? A year and a half later, I have to imagine Kurtz, Burns, Griffin, Wetherholt, Cags are all ahead of Bazzana.

Brendan Gawlowski: If they could re-do it, they’d take someone else.

Guest: Lowder and River Ryan will probably be sent down, but would they be better off working swing?

Brendan Gawlowski: Boring answer, but depends on a lot of factors. For someone returning for TJ especially, there’s a plan based on things we’re not really privy to (how many innings is he going to throw, how should we throttle his workload throughout the year, how is his arm responding to x pitches and y days off, etc.)

Brendan Gawlowski: And then there are the needs of the big-league club to consider as well.

Guest: Will Cijintje debut  this season, and what’s the Reliever Risk?

Brendan Gawlowski: The more he’s focused on the RH side, the more likely that becomes. Reliever risk is pretty high.

RE: no draft: “Devil’s advocate; the prem is pretty popular, no?”

Devil’s advocate; the NFL is the most valuable and richest sports league in the world, no?

Brendan Gawlowski: It is, and it would remain so if the league replaced the draft with signing day as well.

guest v2: In your experience, what is a flaw a player is least likely to overcome?

Brendan Gawlowski: LOFT

Brendan Gawlowski: (lack of fucking talent)

Jason: How realistic is it for Waldschmidt to be an above average offensive regular for the Dbacks out of spring training?

Brendan Gawlowski: Definitely in play. Good looking bat, mature skill set, theoretically well-positioned for a shorter adjustment period than most.

Dodgers Blue: Any hope of Endy Rodriguez returning even league average value at this point?

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m skeptical but he still has fans in the org.

Brendan Gawlowski: Going to shut it down here today. Thanks for all the questions, we’ll do it again next week.