Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 4/7/26

2:02
Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody

2:03
Brendan Gawlowski: Nice that we have some actual minor league games to go off of. I’m sure we’ll all responsibly digest the first week without getting too excited and overreacting to oh who am I kidding

2:04
Brendan Gawlowski: Housekeeping: Meg has been taking a much deserved few days off, which may complicate the publish dates, but my understanding is that Eric is very close to producing an A’s list and I’m nearly there on Rangers. Look for those soon.

2:04
Brendan Gawlowski: Let’s get to it

2:04
Guest: It’s only 3 innings but apparently Landen Maroudis was back to 94-96 and throwing strikes. How much would that change his outlook to get back to his ‘24 self, top 100 type arm talent?

2:04
Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t know about T100 but very encouraging first start, I was really worried for him. Couldn’t throw strikes, stuff down, looked bad in 2025.

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2:05
Brendan Gawlowski: Just one outing but it wasn’t just the strikes and velo that were back, he looked like he was moving freer, not quite as much effort in the delivery, had a better slider. Happy for him, let’s see him do it a few more outings and get him up on The Board.

2:06
Ralphy V: Is there room for me? What do I need to show for a jump to AAA?

2:06
Brendan Gawlowski: Feeling better about guessing he’d debut in 2026, anyway.

2:07
JJ: Just dropping in to say I once got demolished in a tourney game by the Evans gambit and couldn’t believe what was happening. Second, any latest looks on Ethan Salas this spring?

2:07
Brendan Gawlowski: It’s remarkable how well that works… Nothing in person on Salas, looks like a tough start in AA though.

2:07
Guest: I was pretty surprised to see Johnny King be moved up to high A Vancouver especially with his control issues in low A last year. What’s that say about him?

2:08
Brendan Gawlowski: That his stuff was too good for Low-A and that the Jays think he can work on getting the ball over the plate more often at a higher level

2:09
Brendan Gawlowski: Bigger surprise for me is that they often give overqualified arms a month in Low-A anyway simply because it isn’t freezing there

2:11
Farhandrew Zaidman: Hi Brendan! I know this isn’t your specific area, but did you see Breslow’s word salad answer in his interview yesterday? Why is he incapable of saying “every team has a bad 10 game stretch and we’re better than our record”?

2:11
Brendan Gawlowski: I didn’t but there’s just not much to say right now, right? “We’re playing like shit, we think we’ll be fine” isn’t all that interesting.

2:11
D5on: How do teams help players with their reactions to poor performance and other types of adversity in the game? Some guys obviously handle the struggles better than others. I was wondering if there are modern approaches (like mindfulness or learning to shift ways of thinking) that have made their way into the game.

2:12
Brendan Gawlowski: can’t speak for everybody, but lots of teams have mental skills coaches to help deal with this kind of thing

2:13
Brendan Gawlowski: There are also “traditional” coaches who dive into psychology and try to offer the best of both worlds.

2:13
Brendan Gawlowski: Scott Elarton with the Pirates was fascinating to talk with

2:14
The Fallen: Hi! Curious about Brice Matthews, a guy who has fallen on most lists and now has at least a platoon chance in Houston. Any hope he can still be an everyday guy?

2:14
Brendan Gawlowski: There’s a chance, sure. He’s… not close to it right now.

2:14
BUC’IN AROUND: Pirates are shifting into “win now” mode which is very exciting. Which of our prospects is most likely to be moved at the deadline? The offseason? And do you think they’ll have the courage to ship Seth Hernandez off for an extreme win now package?

2:15
Brendan Gawlowski: The arms, but probably not that arm

2:15
Jonny: Hearing any buzz on Dylan Jordan after his 1st start with increased velocity?

2:16
Brendan Gawlowski: I saw him at the Breakout and saw the data from the first, encouraging, let’s see if he can hold that velo over the long haul.

2:17
AT: Also, E. Willits.  Chances he follows a path similar-ish to Griffin and ends up a top, I dunno, 3 prospect next year?

2:17
Brendan Gawlowski: Think the more likely path — not in his specific tools, but in the timeline and overall nature of his talent — is closer to Emerson’s.

2:18
Jonathan: Pretend your personal generative AI has discovered a very strong chess gambit that no one knows about except you. It will always fail against precise, master-level play but is exciting to use, ruthless against even slightly imperfect moves, and always generates fascinating positions. Would you commit to using it 100% of the time when playing that color?

2:18
Brendan Gawlowski: I’d feel bad if it was an AI discovered move but I like playing a variety of things anyway

2:18
Brendan Gawlowski: This may be related to why I’ve plateaued

2:18
Yuniesky Betancourt: A few weeks ago you mentioned “bat manipulation” being widespread in the college game and that it made scouting college stat lines more difficult. Can you give a bit of detail as to what that entails?

2:19
Brendan Gawlowski: Baseball America has written about this a fair bit, I’ll link to just one piece on the subject I found interesting.

2:20
Brendan Gawlowski: There are a couple things going on… The first is that there’s a range of performance capabilities among all the legal bats, even within BBCOR standards

2:20
Brendan Gawlowski: But there are also ways to alter bats

2:21
Brendan Gawlowski: Between that, a juiced ball, and huge differences in competition level among the major conferences, I’ve just become really skeptical of college performance

2:21
mike: Could Roden play first for the Twins? He can’t be as bad as Clemens……(ok, he can, but at least there is upside)

2:21
Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t think you want his bat at first

2:22
Dale: What makes the Brewers farm system as good as it is?

2:23
Brendan Gawlowski: A lot of things. Their amateur departments, particularly international, are very strong. They develop well. They get wild pitchers to throw strikes, which is very hard to do.

2:24
Brendan Gawlowski: They have a lot of interesting 10k guys or small-dollar draft signings. They do well to find interesting traits in the flawed player pile, which gives them more depth than most orgs

2:24
Jimmy (Catching) Crooks: How much have you seen private equity impacting youth sports from your time in the game? It feels like the game is becoming too expensive for kids that aren’t at least middle class

2:25
Brendan Gawlowski: I wish I could speak to this with more knowledge… what I would say is that, if you’re a parent reading this and your kid is not a legitimate D1 prospect or better, I would not recommend doing a million showcases or budget-busting travel ball.

2:25
Minny: Brad – thanks for the chat.  Do you think Culpepper will force his way up to the show this year?

2:25
Brendan Gawlowski: Think this is the first time I’ve been called ‘Brad…’

2:26
Farhandrew Zaidman: The Book tells us that (batter) platoon splits take over 1000 PA to stabilize. Do you think teams are actually giving lefty hitters 1000 chances against a lefty, or just assuming he has a platoon until forced to assume otherwise?

2:26
Brendan Gawlowski: You can’t just give everybody 1,000 PA’s. Fortunately, you also don’t need to wait for statistics to stabilize when there are other tools available to show if you a guy is any good at something like this or not

2:26
Thx 4 talking 2 me: What’s your take on Kevin Alvarez? Hit and game power projections 50/50? 55/50?

2:26
Brendan Gawlowski: Might be light

2:27
Brendan Gawlowski: Looks like the Astros are going to have at least one T100 prospect next cycle

2:28
JC: Bigger 2026 impact: Clark, Emerson or Jenkins?

2:28
Brendan Gawlowski: Jenkins has the cleanest path to a job so it’s tempting to give it to him by default

2:29
Guest: What’s your thoughts on Blaine Bullard?

2:29
Brendan Gawlowski: Fourth outfielder profile, will either need to max out on the hit tool or (more likely) develop more power than I’m anticipating to exceed that. He’s in the right org to do it.

2:30
Guest: With all the other DSL studs starting in low A, were you surprised to see Juan Sanchez start in the FCL?

2:30
Brendan Gawlowski: Blue Jays fans are HERE today, love it. Not really surprised one way or the other, tbh. If he destroys the complex he’ll move soon enough.

2:31
Farhandrew Zaidman: Where is the long term defensive fit for Cole Carrigg? Seems clear the Rockies don’t love him as a C, but he was playing a ton of SS in ST and the WBC. That may just have been because of Israel’s roster construction, though.

2:32
Brendan Gawlowski: He’s played some there for ABQ, too. I think he profiles best in a super util role long term, so it’s great to see him getting reps at SS. Looks alright there, too.

2:33
beanbong: Eric Hartman with two 110+ EVs on the season already, would a 55-60 raw grade juice him up to a 45?

2:34
Brendan Gawlowski: That’s a tick, tick and a half ahead of last season, and so if he’s done it twice already, that’s a pretty good sign. If he had AA/+ raw that would be grounds to jump the grade

2:35
Brendan Gawlowski: “He held his own in Low-A, but Hartman isn’t likely to grow into a ton of power…” — me, a month ago. Nice write up, Meat

2:35
Oaktown Blues: The A’s not protecting Daniel Susac from Rule 5 was kind of baffling, no? Not that he was a top prospect, but a former first rounder who had reached AAA with decent performances, at a position where development is known to be non-linear… seems like a guy who you should hold onto over, say, Joey Estes?

2:36
Brendan Gawlowski: I’ll spot you ‘a tad surprising’ but that’s all

2:36
Ramblin Rod: Hope you might indulge a random fantasy question: Another manager in my 12-team league dropped James Wood. How much do I bid on him out of $100?

2:36
Brendan Gawlowski: Not knowing a ton of fantasy… a lot?

2:36
Dan Norman Lear: I am weirdly fascinated with the Yankees’ AAA OF of The Martin, Jones, and Yanquiel Fernandez. I am not sure what the question here is, but there feels like an article in a highly-touted prospect who already had a season playing full-time in the majors, a divisive prospect who is 99% trade bait, and a former top 100 prospect, only 23, who was jettisoned by the worst team in baseball.

2:37
Brendan Gawlowski: It’s quite a collection. They are going to hit so many homers if they stay there

2:37
Sal’s Mom: Savant had an article on Burns, Miz, and Chandler this week. Obviously some top talent, but how would you rank those 3?

2:37
Brendan Gawlowski: Like that. Burns looks incredible right now

2:37
Minny: Sry, may have mistook you as Brad Pitt

2:38
Brendan Gawlowski: Well in that case… Yes, it looks like Culpepper is gonna force his way up at some point

2:38
Mario: Does it suck to go from Cactus/Grapefruit to scouting in the cold? Are you skipping live-scouting until it warms up? I would

2:38
Brendan Gawlowski: “suck” no, but I’m gonna be cold and missing the desert tonight in Everett.

2:39
Brendan Gawlowski: You get maaaybe 5-10 short sleeves games/year in Everett. Tonight… Is not going to be one of them.

2:39
Oaktown Blues: Can you elaborate about what you mean re: tools to show if a guy needs to be platooned?

2:40
Brendan Gawlowski: Less about tools, more about how they handle spin/react to fastballs. How comfortable they look can be a tell, some guys just start bailing early and get out of rhythm

2:41
Brendan Gawlowski: might be the first time I’ve ever spelled ‘rhythm’ correctly, I had to double check on google, the lack of a red squiggly had me shook

2:41
Chip: Anyone in Hillsboro worth watching?

2:42
Brendan Gawlowski: Sure, tons of guys from their list there. Caldwell is one where there’s a big gap between how I evaluated him on video and where the consensus seems to be, so personally, I’m looking forward to seeing him in the park and figuring out if I missed something earlier or if the live look confirms my initial impressions.

2:43
Brendan Gawlowski: Aracena and Owusu-Asiedu also there, offseason acquisitions who would’ve been on the list in some capacity

2:43
Brendan Gawlowski: Roster might look even better in August when some of the Visalia guys matriculate up

2:43
LoneStarState: How do you feel about Kim & Owens and how they fit into the Rangers overall?

2:45
Brendan Gawlowski: A lot of TWP’s have a, if not dominant side, at least a side of the ball where you expect them to end up or be significantly stronger. I think that’s less true for them, which makes them intriguing and obviously extremely high variance

2:45
Brendan Gawlowski: Owens in particular

2:45
blackjack: Do you think Charlie Condon has turned a corner in his development?  Is he going to be an impact player?

2:45
Brendan Gawlowski: He’s finally fully healthy, that’s the big thing.

2:45
Tim: Spencer Jones cut his SO rate to only 51.5%! Only 19k’s in 33 at bats! I don’t think I’ve ever been so alternately intrigued by, and wanted nothing to do with on a prospect hahaha

2:45
Brendan Gawlowski: I feel ya

2:47
Avery: James Tibbs III, holy moly. Any change in your evaluation on him from November based on this absurd heater he’s been on? Look like an everyday major leaguer (maybe if he wasn’t in the Dodgers system)?

2:48
Brendan Gawlowski: Not yet, would not be surprised if he’s an everyday guy though. He’s one where, if I were scouting for a team, I’d have put an everyday grade on him. For us, the T100 bar is really high

2:49
A Questioner: What do you like most and least about this job?

2:50
Brendan Gawlowski: Most — seeing family more, working with Eric and Meg and James.
Least — I miss the team dynamic, it’s so fun.

2:50
Brendan Gawlowski: It’s also wild to have so many reports/writeups on guys. Impossible to follow in as much depth as I’d like, there just isn’t time.

2:51
Brendan Gawlowski: Maybe mildly frustrating that, due to volume/time/tools, my reports don’t feel quite as good or detailed as they did on the team side. But I don’t want to sound like I’m complaining, FG is a great place to work and I’m lucky to be here.

2:52
beanbong: Piggybacking off earlier question, Hartman had a double and triple with 112 mph EVs, is that enough or does he need a month or two of putting up a better than average EV90 to really confirm that he’s added power?

2:52
Brendan Gawlowski: It’s really encouraging, ATL would know best if he’d put up those kind of numbers in a private setting earlier or if this is a real breakout

2:53
Paladin: Any goodies on Didler as an Atlanta SP?

2:53
Brendan Gawlowski: I think Didier might be the goody as an Atlanta SP

2:53
Naylor Sailor: Were you surprised that Sloan and Anderson are starting in Double-A? Wonder if this pushes up their ETA’s, especially Sloan’s.

2:54
Brendan Gawlowski: Anderson not a bit, Sloan a little, yeah. He’s a dude though, sometimes elite talents do surprising things

2:54
Paladin: Where do you sit as a scoutmaster?

2:55
Brendan Gawlowski: Usually behind the plate, down the line for BP and sometimes for side views during games.

2:56
Brendan Gawlowski: Back when I was a bird dog I once walked out to center field for a different look at a catcher but that’s unusual

2:56
Dead Birds: What happened to the O’s prospect bounty? Mayo, Holliday, Kjerstad – I haven’t lost hope in Holliday, but is this random vagary or a system problem?

2:56
Brendan Gawlowski: Attrition rate on bats is always pretty high

2:57
Brendan Gawlowski: Enough good ones have come through that I don’t see a huge systemic issue

2:57
Brendan Gawlowski: But I wouldn’t be shocked if Holliday Profars

2:58
Farhandrew Zaidman: Why do you think player trading is so much more prevalent in baseball than other sports? Larger rosters? Longer player control? No financial restrictions? Little bit of everything?

2:58
Brendan Gawlowski: The minor leagues

2:58
O: Is Painter’s low whiff rate cause for concern?

2:59
Brendan Gawlowski: The Giants had some excellent takes against him yesteday. A bunch of righties who aren’t especially disciplined had really good takes on pretty good sliders an inch outside.

2:59
Brendan Gawlowski: Not to mention excellent swings on the fastball all night.

3:00
Brendan Gawlowski: Which, that can happen, he leaned on it a little more than he probably should last night and it doesn’t have great shape and the velo was down a tick or two. But man they were hitting like they knew what was coming.

3:00
Farhandrew Zaidman: Are the Cardinals banging Cijntje’s left side like the Mariners were planning to? Shouldn’t they at least see if he can give you a LOOGY inning between righty starts?

3:01
Brendan Gawlowski: That would be the fun thing to do. But I think it’s justifiable to just let him do what he does best

3:01
Brito Filter: Juan Brito getting a debut today. Another guy who’s dropped since early hype. Any hope he’s a regular?

3:01
Brendan Gawlowski: If he hits .280

3:01
Farhandrew Zaidman: If the next CBA were to include full draft pick trading, which org do you think would be most likely to endorse a “f#&% them picks” mentality?

3:02
Brendan Gawlowski: Older, win now teams. Philly the obvious candidate.

3:03
War2D2: re: bat manipulation: The Baseball Bat Bros. YT channel did a couple videos about this. A shaved bat with the restrictor removed basically turned an BBCor into a U-trip bat (for like five swings before exploding). They didn’t find any change between a bat that had been “rolled” and a bat that had been broken-in in the cage.

3:03
Brendan Gawlowski: Interesting.

3:04
Brendan Gawlowski: It’s not an environment I scouted at all with Pit, I’m not super familiar with it, but the way some guys go from huge power to nothing at all just leaves me skeptical as a general matter.

3:04
Brendan Gawlowski: Like, go look at Albert Rios’s career path

3:05
Sal’s Mom: Who’s your favorite “flawed prospect” that you want to believe in?

3:05
Brendan Gawlowski: Might be Ethan at this point

3:05
Guest: is Cole Young selling out or can he make this work?

3:06
Brendan Gawlowski: I have no idea if he’s selling out but 31% SO, 5% BB is not going to work for him.

3:08
Sal’s Mom: Salas, yes?

3:08
Brendan Gawlowski: Holliday, sorry

3:08
Brendan Gawlowski: I mean, I like Salas too, he’s a great catcher, I hope it works, etc.

3:09
Hey Brad…: Any chance this early call up and lack of immediate success actually does cause Griffin harm?

3:09
Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t think going 1-13 is going to break him, no.

3:10
Sean miller: chances basallo sees some triple a?

3:11
Brendan Gawlowski: Not zero but it’s seven games in April, let’s give it a bit of time

3:11
Kate: Only three games, but kinda surprised Brendan Summerhill is whiffing this much at a level he aced last year.  Could this be a situation where the team is having him work on a swing change or something?

3:12
Brendan Gawlowski: Three games. let’s check back in a couple weeks

3:12
AT: When does Eldridge come up?  anytime soon, or is he still working on stuff?

3:13
Brendan Gawlowski: I think AAA at bats are still helpful for him.

3:13
Cool Lester Smooth: How typical have Justin Crawford’s batted ball outcomes been, so far?

3:13
Brendan Gawlowski: Not very in the sense that he’s not going to BABIP .440

3:14
Brendan Gawlowski: It’ll be high, he is good at putting the ball in play, there’s a little hit skill, he’s going to leg things out.

3:15
hollaphant: With the injuries to the Cubs pitchers, do you think Jaxon Wiggins or anyone else might get called up soon?

3:16
Brendan Gawlowski: I suspect Vince Velasquez comes up first but if you keep losing a starter per week it’s not going to be long…

3:16
Sirras: Obligatory Jonah Tong question

3:16
Brendan Gawlowski: Mixed bag out of the gate

3:17
Sal’s Mom: Who is the best athlete in the minors by your estimation?

3:17
Brendan Gawlowski: Cijntje is pretty freaky

3:17
O: Are Bubba’s walk issues worse than you anticipated?

3:17
Brendan Gawlowski: Yes

3:18
Ozzie: Do yo think Emerson has a legitimate chance to win the Golden Spikes award?

3:18
Brendan Gawlowski: Is this a Grady question? I don’t think he’s gonna get there

3:18
The Actor for Al Pacino: Rookie debut you’ve been most impressed with this season? There have been a lot. Has to be McGonigle, looks like a 10-year pro out there with the plate discipline and competitive at-bats

3:20
Brendan Gawlowski: There have been a lot of good ones. Weatherholt/McGonigle jump out. Peyton Pallette looks good

3:22
johnny5alive: Benge – with Soto on the DL it’s a moot point but should he maybe be spending time in AAA?

3:22
Brendan Gawlowski: Of the top guys who were promoted to start the year, his felt the most aggressive.

3:22
Sal’s Mom: Is Spencer Jones best case something like Joey Gallo?

3:22
Brendan Gawlowski: That’s what you’re hoping for

3:23
Robert Andrew Witt Junior: Do you grade pitchers on the non-pitching things they do, like holding runners, fielding their position, pickoffs, etc? Obviously these aren’t important as the quality of their pitches, but they can make a difference

3:24
Brendan Gawlowski: Yes; time to the plate is a big one.

3:25
Colton: What’s the cut line in your estimation for a defensive wizard to start losing at bats quickly? This is a Denzel Clarke question

3:25
Brendan Gawlowski: Sliding scale, particularly if you think a guy just needs time to fight through some things at the plate. In the long run, you can live with a 70 wRC+ if it comes with elite defense and you’ve got boppers elsewhere. Get into the 60’s… it starts to get tough.

3:28
Mario: Eury’s control is terrifying to me, even more if I were a hitter, but we’re all patiently waiting for him to click. Is he “an adjustment away” or is this basically what he is… terrifying stuff, terrifying control?

3:28
Brendan Gawlowski: Obviously a tough couple of starts but Eury’s always thrown strikes. He has excellent body control for his size and a very clean delivery; I suspect he’ll be fine.

3:28
Sal’s Mom: Prospect with the best chances to win a batting title?

3:29
Brendan Gawlowski: McGonigle still counts, so I’ll say him.

3:29
Big Buckston: How much bunting is there in the minors, are the rates similar to the modern majors? Is there maybe more as guys are being asked to try things, or less because it’s viewed as more important to get swings in?

3:30
Brendan Gawlowski: Very little. Guys bunting for hits and a very occasional ninth-inning, one-score game sacrifice from the backup catcher

3:31
DbackJay: Jose fernandez’s bat speed looks really intriguing, how much does that do for him as prospect ? what is your opinion on lujames groover he is one of my favorite prospects in the dbacks system because he signed my hat.

3:33
Brendan Gawlowski: Fernandez has/had a chance to be a late bloomer based on his athleticism/frame. I projected average future pop, Eric had 55 future, so we both saw the growth possibility there. He looks bigger this year, so wouldn’t be shocked if we see a measurable uptick this season.

3:33
Brendan Gawlowski: Groover — he can hit, I don’t know if he has enough power to be an everyday guy, but I like the bat

3:34
Kevin: Some years ago I read pitch recognition (and therefore plate discipline) is largely baked in before a hitter even gets into a pro team’s system, making development in that regard difficult or even unlikely. Your thoughts about that?

3:34
Brendan Gawlowski: You need to try to make difficult and unlikely things happen

3:34
Brendan Gawlowski: That’s the real secret sauce of development: making unlikely things happen

3:35
Brendan Gawlowski: A well-oiled scouting/development apparatus is targeting that sort of thing. We know most guys won’t get better at ___. Go find ones who can.

3:35
Brendan Gawlowski: Guys get better.

3:35
War2D2: Clarification on the bat altering: when I said it turned a BBCor into a USSSA bat that means it added like 8-10mph of exit velo.

3:35
Brendan Gawlowski: Well that sounds significant

3:36
Guest: I think “to Profar” has quite a different connotation than it did a year ago

3:36
Brendan Gawlowski: Gah. Yeah. To be clear, I am not forecasting two PED suspensions for Mr. Holliday.

3:37
Alec: Speaking of Rangers, I’m not sure the last time I saw a pitcher with effectively a 3 or sub-3 ERA at every minor league stint the way Davalillo’s produced – feels like even great SP prospects will have a higher ERA as they work through their pitches, try different grips, etc. Do you think he gets a shot at the rotation in spring training next year?

3:37
Brendan Gawlowski: Might not need to wait that long

3:37
puddle: Which of the Dodgers many outfield prospects (Quintero, de Paula, Hope, Sirota, Davalan, Tibbs III, Ehrhard, George, Vidourek, Harlan, Ko, Ward) are you higher on and which ones are you lower on than most other scouts?

3:38
Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t know about ‘most other scouts…’ Relative to Eric, I like Sirota more… I probably like Hope a little more too, though we’re in a similar ballpark. I think I like Tibbs a tick more? I should check with him. He’s a little higher on de Paula.

3:40
Rickey: Does Alex Freeland have a chance to be a solid regular? And if so, does he need a trade from the Dodgers?

3:40
Brendan Gawlowski: Has a chance but yes, harder to do it there

3:40
Noah: Would like to know who you think has the highest ceiling between Cam Caminiti, JR Ritchie, or Didier Fuentes in the braves system currently.

3:41
Brendan Gawlowski: Similar mid-rotation ceilings. Caminiti if I had to pick a name

3:41
Ozzie: What do you make of Pages offensive explosion? It’s early, but impressive nonetheless. Has he turned a corner?

3:41
Brendan Gawlowski: 10 games.

3:41
Brendan Gawlowski: Ten very good games. But we need more time.

3:42
DbackJay: As a scout how do you factor in a pitcher’s arm angle. I saw a tweet from Robert Stock that questioned if natural arm angle is really a thing based Joe Boyle’s changes

3:42
Brendan Gawlowski: Evaluate how it looks now, and then when projecting, thinking about how various changes to the delivery could make everything play differently is part of the equation.

3:44
JK: For the MLB draft, the traditional wisdom (which I agree with) is to just take the best player available. Is the Giants’ 4th pick a potential exception to the rule? With a SS heavy top 5 in the draft, and their SS heavy system (Gonzalez, Hernandez, Level, Kilen) do you value a pitcher or OF more?

3:44
Brendan Gawlowski: No, if they think the best guy available is the SS, they should take the SS

3:45
Guest: Jordan Walker’s first week has me hyped that he might actually be as good as we hoped as a prospect (45 hit/80 game power). Small sample of course but how does he look to you? Please only answer if you agree with me

3:45
Brendan Gawlowski: Very interested here, want to see him do it for longer but ‘fewer grounders and same strikeout rate’ would be just the tonic

3:46
Baseball learner: Post-prospect question: how much more development do you think we could see from Ben Rice? What’s his ceiling and what is in the way of him getting there? If you were the Yankees would you keep developing him as a backup catcher, or leave him at first to dev/protect his bat?

3:46
Brendan Gawlowski: I would let him hit

3:47
Wes: Do scouts collaborate on lists of good places to eat in minor league cities? Feels like an area where everyone could work together to make all of their lives better

3:47
Brendan Gawlowski: Absolutely

3:47
Brendan Gawlowski: Part of the dance of figuring out if a guy knows what he’s talking about is if he can pick a half decent restaurant or Marriott

3:47
Cody Bellinger’s 5 O’Clock Shadow: Still unsure what to think of Colson Montgomery, uneven start to the year after the roller coaster last year. Where do you think he settles as a player? Or do you think he’ll be a guy with very up-and-down performance?

3:48
Brendan Gawlowski: Going to be volatile and HR dependent. The dry spells could get ugly

3:48
Idiotic Failson: Is this the right place to get mad about your Sal Stewart valuation?

3:48
Brendan Gawlowski: I’d still need to make one!

3:49
Brendan Gawlowski: Fwiw, back in December Eric was on the fence about 55’ing, I said ‘I’d probably 50 but support you either way’

3:50
Blank: Is Luis Morales broken?

3:52
Brendan Gawlowski: I’ll be honest, I haven’t seen the starts, which have clearly been bad. But the guy has a fairly long track record of throwing strikes, and eight outings (if you wanna count the spring) where he didn’t. In the long run, I’m still optimistic.

3:52
bkgeneral: Between his spring performance and Brewers injuries, I thought Tyler Black would be up and get some AB’s.  AAAA guy?

3:52
Brendan Gawlowski: I think he can help in the big leagues

3:53
Bob: Is it easier to project minor league pitchers than minor league hitters in terms of major league success? Spin rate, velocity, control probably gets better as a pitcher matures…hitters…facing better pitchers in the majors just seem more hit and miss.

3:53
Brendan Gawlowski: Harder in a lot of ways because they break all the time and can change everything at the drop of a hat

3:54
Big Buckston: Are bat-only prospects viewed as inherently riskier? I’m thinking of the difference in extension value between Emerson and Basallo. If Basallo doesn’t hit, he’s not a major leaguer, but Emerson could still be serviceable if he doesn’t hit much

3:54
Brendan Gawlowski: The floor is certainly lower

3:54
Colton: Would my ‘Bazzana hit tool’ question be better suited for Eric on Friday? Don’t mean to double up but I’m just curious for my own sake with the use of tools on player pages here. Some combo of swing% and swinging strike% is how I evaluate lower level hit tools in my head.

3:55
Brendan Gawlowski: No, there’s just a hundred of these in the queue, I can’t get to everything.

3:56
Brendan Gawlowski: Bazzana is a complicated one because of the selectivity you mentioned and also how he’s so pull oriented. He’s made the hit for power tradeoff

3:57
Guest: If pick trading became legal, do you think teams would target the picks or teams prospects more, conversely what do you think teams would rather trade?

3:57
Brendan Gawlowski: Trading the picks would be easier, there’s friction anytime you deal a prospect

3:57
Brendan Gawlowski: Well, not always. Sometimes the PD staff is happy to get rid of a guy, but that’s unusual

3:58
Bradfield: Any chance that Enrique Bradfield develops into more than a 4th outfielder?

3:58
Brendan Gawlowski: Yes but I’d bet the other way

3:59
Brendan Gawlowski: With PIT (and a lot of other teams do the same) we’d have bets on various grades. Bradfield would have like seven or eight out of 10 bets in the 4th/5th OF range, and 1-2 in the everyday for me

3:59
Ryan Gallagher: Any chance I’m being slept on?

4:00
Brendan Gawlowski: I hope not, that’d be painful

4:01
Brendan Gawlowski: Really tough to profile as more than a backend with a below average fastball. Need very good command and at least one monster secondary

4:01
JojoLover: Favourite Blue Jays prospect?

4:01
Brendan Gawlowski: I think I can guess yours.

4:01
Brendan Gawlowski: Nimmala for me. The Bullard/Cook types are great fun to watch in the minors as well

4:01
Mr. Burrito: What’s your estimate for the number of MLB ABs or IPs before you decide if you were right or wrong about a prospect?

4:02
Brendan Gawlowski: A lot.

4:02
Brendan Gawlowski: It’s also complicated

4:02
Brendan Gawlowski: I had Jordan Walker as an everyday guy a few years ago. I still do, a thousand mostly bad AB’s later

4:03
Brendan Gawlowski: I had Bryan Ramos as an everyday guy at one point; I don’t think I need to see much more to conclude that I missed high there

4:03
Sirras: Favorite minor league town from your time in the industry?

4:04
Brendan Gawlowski: Asheville the clear winner. OKC maybe the one that surprised me most in a positive way

4:04
Guest: Who would you say got the most aggressive or surprising assignment to start the minor league season

4:04
Brendan Gawlowski: Sloan was aggressive, but I kinda dig it.

4:05
Brendan Gawlowski: I’m maybe more surprised that Bremner didn’t get the Kade Anderson treatment

4:05
pork: How does Flora stack up to other recent top of the class college pitching arms? On stuff and future projection.. Ace type ?

4:05
Brendan Gawlowski: Very good pitching prospect, not quite the Cole/Skenes monster tier

4:06
Byron Buxton: Are you a believer in the wisdom that a glove can keep you on the field long enough to where you figure out how to hit? it worked for me

4:06
Brendan Gawlowski: You were more in the ‘give the elite athletes every chance’ bucket. The outstanding defense was a nice side benefit

4:06
Sirras: Howie Rose announced he’s retiring at the end of the season. What broadcast prospect do you have stepping into the Mets radio booth? I’m sure you keep immaculate notes on the broadcast prospects! :p

4:08
Brendan Gawlowski: Lot of good ones in the minor leagues. Alex Freedman, Tim Hagerty, Emma Tiedemann, Pat Dillon, Zach Goodman… I’m going to forget a bunch so I’ll stop now

4:09
Brendan Gawlowski: Going to shut it down here today. Thanks as always for stopping by and hanging out.

4:09
War2D2: thanks Brad!





Brendan covers prospects and the minor leagues for FanGraphs. Previously he worked as a Pro Scout for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

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