Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

Who’s going to have the better season: Bryce Harper or Manny Machado? That’s the question posed to you at the end of this post. Which means this is a poll post. Poll post!

Years ago, the debate used to be about Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Mike Trout. It’s safe to say Trout is now excluded from the conversation, on account of having become too good. That leaves Harper and Machado to battle, and while they’re not actually in direct competition with one another, what’s the downside here of matching them up? Below, I’ll present the respective cases, before getting to the question. This does not mean I think these are the only great players. Kris Bryant is great. Mookie Betts is great. Corey Seager and several others are great. But Harper vs. Machado is a fun one, and I think we’ll be able to learn from whatever these poll results might be.

Bryce Harper was born in October of 1992. He’s batted a little shy of 2,800 times in the majors, and he’s been worth about 23 WAR. Manny Machado was born in July of 1992. He’s batted a little shy of 2,700 times in the majors, and he’s been worth about 23 WAR. I know you already know this, but just as a visual reminder, here are their performances over the last two seasons, in which both players have been relatively healthy regulars:

The combined WARs are effectively equal. Harper has been better by about three wins, and he’s been worse by about three wins. Machado’s remained stable. That’s why this is fun! I want to see which player you prefer. Let’s talk about them on their own.

Why to pick Bryce Harper

Machado’s great and all, but he has yet to reach the 7-WAR level. Harper, as shown above, has topped out at 9.5. Over the past decade, four position players have had seasons worth 9 WAR or better. Mike Trout has done it a bunch, which is why he isn’t exactly fair, but Harper once proved himself to be that good. He had the best batting season since Barry Bonds‘ 2004. Even last year, when Harper’s performance plummeted, he still finished with the league’s highest walk rate, and he spent more time in hitter-friendly counts than everyone but David Ortiz. The struggling version of Harper consistently worked the zone and worked the count, which would seem to bode well in the event that Harper re-discovers his swing.

Which, oh, by the way, kablammo!

Harper is currently tied for the MLB lead in spring-training home runs, with six. Obviously, the “spring-training” part might render the numbers meaningless — Harper shares the lead with Peter O’Brien. But if you were just looking for signs of life, there’s a there there. Harper looks healthy. I wouldn’t exactly describe his home runs as effortless, like I would a typical Chris Davis bomb, but Harper looks like a slugger. He has been slugging.

There’s still some mystery about what happened. What we don’t have is a clear explanation for why Harper’s wRC+ last year suddenly dropped by 85 points. There’s never been proof that Harper played through some sort of significant injury. However, there’s no shortage of circumstantial evidence. There were frequent rumors of injury, and there were some missed ballgames. There’s the simple matter of Harper’s power and exit velocity dropping off. Harper’s a prideful guy, and he doesn’t seem like one to lean on excuses. Even when he wasn’t at his best, he was still a net positive for his team. We don’t have a smoking gun, but there’s enough smoke in the air, which makes Harper so damned intriguing.

We’ve seen Harper play at a Hall-of-Fame level. He did that in his age-22 season. It was a season that matched the hype, and Harper looked that good again early last year, before his numbers suddenly dropped. Some people have suggested that Harper’s approach just got screwed up, by how often he was pitched around. The injury excuse, however, is compelling. If Harper can do what he did while hurt, what if he were healthy again? Yeah. I’m not going to lie to you — it’s persuasive.

Why to pick Manny Machado

I can’t very well embed one video without embedding a second:

The image of Harper is one of a slugger, but you definitely shouldn’t sell Machado’s power short. He’s shown it in the WBC, and although it was just one ball in play, I’ll note that it was Machado who hit the would-be homer that Adam Jones famously took away over the weekend. In Harper’s massive breakout season, he hit 42 homers. The last two years combined, he’s hit 66. Over the same span, Machado’s hit 72. A couple years back, Machado turned on the pop, and his ground-ball rate has dropped from 49% to 37% since 2014. The power has come, and there’s still room to grow.

Harper’s biggest edge is in the walk department. Harper is more willing to leave the bat on his shoulder. Machado, though, showed unusual discipline two years back, and he could conceivably blend that approach with his 2016 results as he matures. And, additionally, to some extent it’ll be taken out of Machado’s hands, as pitchers could increasingly opt to work around him. His rate of fastballs seen just dropped seven percentage points, and his zone rate dropped as well. With Machado as a proven threat, pitchers will have to be careful, so you could see his walk rate jump.

That’s the upside in Machado’s approach. He already makes league-average contact, with league-elite power. His is an enviable mix of offensive skills. But I haven’t even mentioned Machado’s other strength. Harper has a career UZR of +17, and a career DRS of +24. Pretty good! He’s mostly played the corner outfield. Machado’s played shortstop and third base. He has a career UZR of +64, and a career DRS of +77. Machado is — statistically and visually — one of the best defensive infielders in recent baseball history, and that gives him a certain well-roundedness few other players could achieve. It also props up Machado’s baseline, such that you could imagine a 9- or 10-win season even without him quite reaching his offensive ceiling. Adrian Beltre’s 2004 required a wRC+ of 161. Through last year’s first three months, Machado had a wRC+ of 163.

You could say that picking between Harper and Machado is like picking between upside and stability. Sure, that’s part of it. But it’s not like Machado doesn’t have his own upside, considering how much room there still is to improve at the plate. Manny Machado, the last two years, ranks fourth among position players in WAR, while hitting as well as Justin Turner. What if he hit better than Justin Turner? He’ll turn 25 on the 6th of July.

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My part here is done. Take it away, FanGraphs community.