Building a Farm: American League Central

Prospect lists are one of the best parts of the off-season. Marc Hulet published his top 100 yesterday as the culmination of several months of work, and Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, John Sickels and a plethora of websites have published others. Each group puts myriad hours into analyzing, calling, writing, editing, re-analyzing and finally publishing their work. But even after all that, they usually come to several different conclusions. I decided — instead of focusing on a specific list — to generate a list that combined each of these lists into one.

The idea of community or consensus lists isn’t new. Sites have done it before, but I’ve added some wrinkles:

• I included team lists from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, Keith Law, Jonathan Mayo, Bullpen Banter and our own Marc Hulet. There are more lists out there, but I needed to cut it off at some point. These were the lists that an unscientific Twitter crowd-source noted, and they are also sites I visit often. If you use another site, please leave it in the comments, and I might use it in future research.
• I also included team-centric blogs for each team to add a local flavor to the mix. They may be higher/lower on certain prospects, but they add a voice from those who follow the team closely. Suggestions for teams in the remaining divisions are welcome.
• Overall grades and risks are added, as well. Prospect lists for each team only allow comparison within each system, but adding overall 20-80 grades and risks give us the ability to cross-examine lists more objectively. Unfortunately, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are currently the only ones that include a specific final grade of these characteristics, with Sickels adding a letter grade that combines the two. The grades and risk, however, help us examine prospects across systems and over various years.

The last five columns for each team are averaged scores.

• AVG – This is the average ranking for each prospect. I didn’t use a points system because the lists do not cover a standard number of players. Averaging the numbers by only including the lists each was ranked will help someone who has only been named in one or two lists, but it will also highlight where some controversial prospects might be.
• RANK – This is the numbered order based on the average scores. I hope this score will highlight where gaps can be when looking at the differences between prospects.
• GRADE – This is the average grades for players listed in Baseball America and in Baseball Prospectus.
• RISK – This is the averaged “Risk Rating” for each prospect based on the determinations by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. The point system is unscientific and is subject to change in the future with more research. It is currently:
  • Safe – 0 points
  • Low – 1 point
  • Medium/Moderate – 2 points
  • High – 3 points
  • Extreme – 4 points
• RISK – the qualitative risk based off the “Risk Rating”. Currently:
  • Safe – less than 1
  • Low – greater than or equal to 1 or less than 2
  • Medium – greater than or equal to 2 or less than 3
  • High – greater than or equal to 3 or less than 4
  • Extreme – equal to 4

Below the prospect lists, I calculated the average grade and risk for the entire system: the prospects with grades of 50-or-better and the prospects with grades of 60-or-better. When we get through all of the lists, I’ll put up the overall scores along with the major outlets’ farm rankings.

(The Google Doc with the individual lists and the team-specific blogs for this division can be found here)

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox farm system comes in just ahead of the Angels, giving it the second-worst system grade so far. Courtney Hawkins heads the list after an impressive debut, and Trayce Thompson edges out Carlos Sanchez for second place. Nestor Molina saw a wide range of rankings as he went from 4th on one list to 28th on another.

Cleveland Indians

Trading for Trevor Bauer gave the Indians system a boost, but it still lacks depth after a top-heavy top 3. Francisco Lindor tops the list just barely over Bauer, but Dillon Howard is the prospect giving evaluators fits as the 2011 draftee comes in as high as 8th and as low as 26th.

Detroit Tigers

American League Champions don’t necessarily need a strong farm system, and the Tigers do not. A solid top 3 then drops into confusion as the Tigers 44 prospects is the most on any list so far. The most perplexing are Daniel Fields and Jose Ortega who each get in a list’s top 6 while ranking 30th elsewhere.

Kansas City Royals

After three rough AL Central farm systems, the Royals maintain a strong farm system despite losing Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi. Their 3.1 risk rating, however, is easily the highest of any team so far, and seven “Extreme” players line the list. Bubba Starling is one of them, and he ranks as the second-best Royals prospect. Adalberto Mondesi, another “Extreme” prospect, ranks 5th one list and 18th on another. (Additional Note: One of the commenters pointed this out, and I meant to as well. JC Sulbaran was 5th on one list but not on any of the other lists, which is why he’s so high here. Perhaps, I should give “31” to anyone not on one of the top 30 lists.)

Minnesota Twins

2013 is definitely a rebuilding year for the Twins, but its farm system has four 60+ grade prospects with three more just outside of that range. The argument for the top spot so far has been between Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, but Sano wins by just a hair. Evaluators seemed to see this system similarly as only three prospects had a wider range of rankings than 10, and they were just barely over 10.