Building a Farm: Top Prospects

by Mark Smith

April 12, 2013

On Wednesday, we took a look at the top farm systems in baseball. Today, we’ll take a look at how the top prospects stack up against each other. We’re essentially looking at the same principles that we were looking at in the farm systems. How do the prospects rank after the lists are averaged together? Where are the true gaps/tiers in prospects? And how good is the prospect class overall? Let’s take a look.

Averaged Prospect Lists

Name	BA	BP	Law	FG	Sic	BB	MLB	Average	RANK
Jurickson Profar	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.0	1
Dylan Bundy	2	4	3	3	3	2	2	2.7	2
Oscar Taveras	3	2	2	2	2	8	3	3.1	3
Wil Myers	4	7	4	4	7	3	4	4.7	4
Gerrit Cole	7	3	8	6	5	5	9	6.1	5
Jose Fernandez	5	6	16	8	8	11	7	8.7	6
Zack Wheeler	11	5	13	9	15	7	8	9.7	7
Xander Bogaerts	8	12	5	5	4	20	20	10.6	8
Taijuan Walker	18	9	9	13	19	4	5	11.0	9
Tyler Skaggs	12	17	12	7	16	17	10	13.0	10
Travis d’Arnaud	23	15	14	11	13	13	6	13.6	11
Christian Yelich	15	23	6	10	12	21	13	14.3	12
Jameson Taillon	19	11	20	14	17	10	15	15.1	13
Miguel Sano	9	21	11	17	10	28	12	15.4	14
Shelby Miller	6	16	21	25	6	14	25	16.1	15
Mike Zunino	17	33	15	12	9	6	23	16.4	16
Francisco Lindor	28	10	7	20	31	9	14	17.0	17
Byron Buxton	10	8	22	16	37	16	19	18.3	18
Javier Baez	16	20	31	22	18	25	16	21.1	19
Kevin Gausman	26	13	26	15	23	15	37	22.1	20
Trevor Bauer	14	24	25	28	11	38	17	22.4	21
Carlos Correa	13	26	24	34	24	12	30	23.3	22
Billy Hamilton	20	14	30	30	14	55	11	24.9	23
Archie Bradley	25	31	29	26	21	26	24	26.0	24
Anthony Rendon	30	35	17	39	33	19	28	28.7	25
Kyle Zimmer	24	41	27	18	43	22	34	29.9	26
Nick Castellanos	21	37	38	21	67	23	21	32.6	27
Addison Russell	48	22	10	43	30	31	48	33.1	28
Jonathan Singleton	27	25	32	29	57	43	27	34.3	29
Albert Almora	33	18	33	51	44	24	39	34.6	30
Aaron Sanchez	65	32	19	23	42	27	35	34.7	31
Mike Olt	22	30	71	47	29	30	22	35.9	32
Julio Teheran	44	52	28	19	41	37	31	36.0	33
Danny Hultzen	29	50	66	44	28	18	18	36.1	34
Carlos Martinez	38	43	39	35	20	47	33	36.4	35
Jorge Soler	34	36	42	50	25	32	42	37.3	36
Jackie Bradley	31	27	40	54	45	41	32	38.6	37
Gary Sanchez	57	47	18	42	46	40	36	40.9	38
Mason Williams	32	51	35	36	64	35	41	42.0	39
Chris Archer	36	29	53	27	39	65	46	42.1	40
Austin Hedges	58	19	36	31	32	59	73	44.0	41
Noah Syndergaard	54	28	97	46	22	34	29	44.3	42
Matt Barnes	40	38	79	41	59	33	38	46.9	43
Trevor Rosenthal	39	45	58	59	27	61	43	47.4	44
Alen Hanson	61	66	34	33	49	36	54	47.6	45
Taylor Guerrieri	62	48	47	40	56	45	44	48.9	46
David Dahl	53	40	37	56	69	42	58	50.7	47
Robert Stephenson	56	78	48	32	55	39	51	51.3	48
Max Fried	46	61	51	68	54	29	53	51.7	49
George Springer	37	55	43	53	72	48	57	52.1	50
Gregory Polanco	51	44	55	60	50	44	65	52.7	51
Kaleb Cowart	60	42	23	75	68	49	67	54.9	52
Oswaldo Arcia	41	60	59	66	36	50	92	57.7	53
Brian Goodwin	70	74	44	38	71	64	52	59.0	54
Bubba Starling	35	49	45	84	101	81	26	60.1	55
Nolan Arenado	52	57	101	48	53	58	62	61.6	56
Nick Franklin	79	72	69	74	40	57	47	62.6	57
Kyle Gibson	68	64	41	77	62	79	49	62.9	58
Kyle Crick	66	65	76	45	52	53	85	63.1	59
Aaron Hicks	72	46	49	65	35	78	97	63.1	60
Michael Wacha	76	56	101	24	34	80	82	64.7	61
Jedd Gyorko	71	84	70	67	38	77	50	65.3	62
Casey Kelly	45	77	60	89	51	66	69	65.3	63
Trevor Story	96	34	85	49	47	51	98	65.7	64
Alex Meyer	59	88	61	78	63	72	40	65.9	65
Allen Webster	49	69	63	55	88	93	71	69.7	66
Courtney Hawkins	55	101	74	63	76	52	68	69.9	67
Justin Nicolino	86	73	62	79	60	63	72	70.7	68
Lucas Giolito	67	70	77	70	101	46	74	72.1	69
Luis Heredia	78	53	84	62	74	56	101	72.6	70
Jake Odorizzi	92	83	68	86	80	68	45	74.6	71
Tyler Austin	77	101	52	101	58	60	75	74.9	72
Yasiel Puig	47	79	101	99	26	101	76	75.6	73
Wily Peralta	69	68	73	101	90	69	64	76.3	74
Hak-Ju Lee	90	75	78	37	101	101	56	76.9	75
Rymer Liriano	101	39	54	93	100	101	55	77.6	76
Jake Marisnick	64	71	82	90	101	73	70	78.7	77
Jesse Biddle	89	67	95	88	61	101	60	80.1	78
Yordano Ventura	85	62	101	83	93	82	59	80.7	79
Kolten Wong	84	90	96	58	85	76	79	81.1	80
Tony Cingrani	82	91	98	69	65	101	66	81.7	81
Martin Perez	81	59	93	73	101	71	94	81.7	82
Dorssys Paulino	101	96	56	76	82	67	101	82.7	83
Jonathan Schoop	101	80	50	57	101	101	101	84.4	84
Matt Davidson	88	89	75	61	101	101	77	84.6	85
Slade Heathcott	63	101	57	87	101	83	101	84.7	86
James Paxton	87	92	101	101	91	62	61	85.0	87
Andrew Heaney	43	101	101	72	101	100	81	85.6	88
Roberto Osuna	101	101	87	81	75	70	89	86.3	89
Lance McCullers	50	101	101	101	66	84	101	86.3	90
Corey Seager	101	101	46	97	70	89	101	86.4	91
Arodys Vizcaino	83	54	64	101	101	101	101	86.4	92
Delino DeShields	99	101	83	52	77	96	100	86.9	93
Zach Lee	101	87	67	91	101	85	78	87.1	94
J.R. Graham	93	63	94	80	85	101	101	88.1	95
Daniel Corcino	94	101	72	71	81	101	101	88.7	96
Leonys Martin	97	101	101	82	78	74	101	90.6	97
Didi Gregorius	80	101	101	98	101	101	63	92.1	98
Joe Ross	101	101	88	101	101	54	101	92.4	99
Hyun-Jin Ryu	42	101	101	101	101	101	101	92.6	100
Eddie Rosario	101	101	65	101	79	101	101	92.7	101
Adam Eaton	73	101	91	100	92	101	96	93.4	102
Adalberto Mondesi	101	58	101	101	101	91	101	93.4	103
Brad Miller	101	101	101	101	48	101	101	93.4	104
Jorge Alfaro	101	76	101	101	101	88	87	93.6	105
A.J. Cole	101	101	89	92	89	98	90	94.3	106
Dan Straily	101	85	101	101	96	75	101	94.3	107
Clayton Blackburn	101	95	80	101	83	101	101	94.6	108
Luis Sardinas	101	86	101	95	101	101	83	95.4	109
Chris Stratton	101	101	101	101	73	90	101	95.4	110
Carlos Sanchez	101	101	101	64	101	101	101	95.7	111
Alex Colome	101	101	81	85	101	101	101	95.9	112
Jarred Cosart	101	101	86	101	101	101	88	97.0	113
Avisail Garcia	74	101	101	101	101	101	101	97.1	114
Cody Buckel	101	101	90	101	101	101	86	97.3	115
Marcell Ozuna	75	101	101	101	101	101	101	97.3	116
Robbie Erlin	101	101	101	101	87	92	101	97.7	117
Ethan Martin	101	101	101	101	101	101	80	98.0	118
Chris Owings	101	81	101	101	101	101	101	98.1	119
Michael Choice	101	82	101	101	101	101	101	98.3	120
Bruce Rondon	95	101	101	101	99	101	91	98.4	121
Henry Owens	91	101	101	101	101	101	93	98.4	122
Michael Fulmer	101	98	101	101	86	101	101	98.4	123
Joc Pederson	101	101	101	101	101	101	84	98.6	124
Kyle Parker	101	101	101	101	84	101	101	98.6	125
Stryker Trahan	101	101	101	101	101	86	101	98.9	126
Brett Jackson	101	101	101	101	101	87	101	99.0	127
Marcus Stroman	98	101	101	101	101	94	101	99.6	128
Victor Sanchez	101	101	101	101	95	97	101	99.6	129
Adam Morgan	101	101	92	101	101	101	101	99.7	130
Tyler Thornburg	101	100	101	94	101	101	101	99.9	131
Christian Bethancourt	101	93	101	101	101	101	101	99.9	132
Tyrell Jenkins	101	94	101	101	101	101	101	100.0	133
Matt Wisler	101	101	101	101	94	101	101	100.0	134
Joey Gallo	101	101	101	101	101	95	101	100.1	135
Jose Iglesias	101	101	101	101	101	101	95	100.1	136
Chris Reed	101	101	101	96	101	101	101	100.3	137
Sean Nolin	101	97	101	101	101	101	101	100.4	138
Brandon Maurer	101	101	101	101	97	101	101	100.4	139
Dan Vogelbach	101	101	101	101	98	101	101	100.6	140
Josh Bell	101	101	101	101	101	99	101	100.7	141
Nathan Karns	101	101	99	101	101	101	101	100.7	142
Lewis Brinson	101	99	101	101	101	101	101	100.7	143
Gary Brown	101	101	101	101	101	101	99	100.7	144
Eduardo Rodriguez	101	101	100	101	101	101	101	100.9	145
Roman Quinn	100	101	101	101	101	101	101	100.9	146

It should be no surprise that Jurickson Profar heads the list as he has been number one on all the major prospect lists due to his talent, position, and readiness. Dylan Bundy, Oscar Taveras, and Wil Myers follow closely behind in the second tier, and Gerrit Cole sits in the next tier all by himself. The next tier is about 4-6 players and finishes out the players who appear in several top 10s.

The next 70 or so prospects fall in line without too many major gaps, but there are several that seem fairly interchangeable. Jameson Taillon and Miguel Sano seem to be similarly well-regarded as do Shelby Miller and Mike Zunino, who fit in behind the other two. Kevin Gausman and Trevor Bauer also fit the same mold.

There seems to be a gap between Kyle Zimmer (26) and Nick Castellanos (27), possibly marking off another tier. Another occurs with Kaleb Cowart (52) and Oswaldo Arcia (53), and then another happens between Alex Meyer (65) and Allen Webster (66). Once you get to the 80s, the prospects become more and more condensed. One of the things we sometimes forget is how interchangeable a lot of these prospects are within a given range. Players are put in an order, but the order is often not decisive.

Putting Those Against the Averaged Grades and Risks

Name	Pos	Team	GRADE	RISK	AVG	RANK
Jurickson Profar	SS	TEX	72.5	1.0	1.0	1
Dylan Bundy	RHP	BAL	75.0	1.5	2.7	2
Oscar Taveras	OF	STL	70.0	1.0	3.1	3
Wil Myers	OF	TB	65.0	1.0	4.7	4
Gerrit Cole	RHP	PIT	72.5	2.0	6.1	5
Jose Fernandez	RHP	MIA	70.0	2.0	8.7	6
Zack Wheeler	RHP	NYM	67.5	2.0	9.7	7
Xander Bogaerts	SS	BOS	70.0	2.5	10.6	8
Taijuan Walker	RHP	SEA	70.0	3.0	11.0	9
Tyler Skaggs	LHP	ARZ	62.5	1.0	13.0	10
Travis d’Arnaud	C	NYM	60.0	1.5	13.6	11
Christian Yelich	OF	MIA	62.5	2.0	14.3	12
Jameson Taillon	RHP	PIT	67.5	2.0	15.1	13
Miguel Sano	3B	MIN	67.5	3.0	15.4	14
Shelby Miller	RHP	STL	67.5	1.5	16.1	15
Mike Zunino	C	SEA	57.5	1.5	16.4	16
Francisco Lindor	SS	CLE	67.5	3.0	17.0	17
Byron Buxton	CF	MIN	70.0	3.5	18.3	18
Javier Baez	SS	CHC	67.5	3.5	21.1	19
Kevin Gausman	RHP	BAL	67.5	2.0	22.1	20
Trevor Bauer	RHP	CLE	65.0	2.0	22.4	21
Carlos Correa	SS	HOU	70.0	3.0	23.3	22
Billy Hamilton	CF	CIN	67.5	2.0	24.9	23
Archie Bradley	RHP	ARZ	70.0	3.0	26.0	24
Anthony Rendon	3B	WSH	65.0	3.0	28.7	25
Kyle Zimmer	RHP	KC	67.5	2.0	29.9	26
Nick Castellanos	3B/OF	DET	62.5	2.0	32.6	27
Addison Russell	SS	OAK	65.0	2.5	33.1	28
Jonathan Singleton	1B	HOU	67.5	2.0	34.3	29
Albert Almora	OF	CHC	60.0	2.0	34.6	30
Aaron Sanchez	RHP	TOR	65.0	3.0	34.7	31
Mike Olt	3B	TEX	62.5	1.5	35.9	32
Julio Teheran	RHP	ATL	60.0	2.0	36.0	33
Danny Hultzen	LHP	SEA	60.0	2.0	36.1	34
Carlos Martinez	RHP	STL	67.5	2.5	36.4	35
Jorge Soler	OF	CHC	62.5	3.0	37.3	36
Jackie Bradley	CF	BOS	60.0	2.0	38.6	37
Gary Sanchez	C	NYY	62.5	3.0	40.9	38
Mason Williams	OF	NYY	62.5	2.5	42.0	39
Chris Archer	RHP	TB	62.5	2.0	42.1	40
Austin Hedges	C	SD	65.0	3.0	44.0	41
Noah Syndergaard	RHP	NYM	65.0	3.0	44.3	42
Matt Barnes	RHP	BOS	62.5	2.0	46.9	43
Trevor Rosenthal	RHP	STL	60.0	1.0	47.4	44
Alen Hanson	SS	PIT	60.0	3.0	47.6	45
Taylor Guerrieri	RHP	TB	62.5	3.0	48.9	46
David Dahl	OF	COL	65.0	3.0	50.7	47
Robert Stephenson	RHP	CIN	62.5	3.0	51.3	48
Max Fried	LHP	SD	62.5	3.0	51.7	49
George Springer	CF	HOU	62.5	3.0	52.1	50
Gregory Polanco	CF	PIT	60.0	3.0	52.7	51
Kaleb Cowart	3B	LAA	62.5	3.0	54.9	52
Oswaldo Arcia	OF	MIN	60.0	2.0	57.7	53
Brian Goodwin	CF	WSH	60.0	3.0	59.0	54
Bubba Starling	OF	KC	70.0	4.0	60.1	55
Nolan Arenado	3B	COL	52.5	2.0	61.6	56
Nick Franklin	SS	SEA	52.5	1.5	62.6	57
Kyle Gibson	RHP	MIN	57.5	2.0	62.9	58
Kyle Crick	RHP	SF	62.5	3.0	63.1	59
Aaron Hicks	CF	MIN	57.5	2.0	63.1	60
Michael Wacha	RHP	STL	57.5	2.0	64.7	61
Jedd Gyorko	3B	SD	52.5	1.5	65.3	62
Casey Kelly	RHP	SD	52.5	1.5	65.3	63
Trevor Story	SS	COL	57.5	2.5	65.7	64
Alex Meyer	RHP	MIN	60.0	3.0	65.9	65
Allen Webster	RHP	BOS	60.0	2.0	69.7	66
Courtney Hawkins	OF	CHW	60.0	3.0	69.9	67
Justin Nicolino	LHP	MIA	57.5	2.0	70.7	68
Lucas Giolito	RHP	WSH	70.0	4.0	72.1	69
Luis Heredia	RHP	PIT	62.5	3.5	72.6	70
Jake Odorizzi	RHP	TB	55.0	2.0	74.6	71
Tyler Austin	OF	NYY	57.5	2.5	74.9	72
Yasiel Puig	OF	LAD	62.5	3.5	75.6	73
Wily Peralta	RHP	MIL	60.0	2.0	76.3	74
Hak-Ju Lee	SS	TB	55.0	2.0	76.9	75
Rymer Liriano	OF	SD	57.5	3.0	77.6	76
Jake Marisnick	CF	MIA	60.0	3.0	78.7	77
Jesse Biddle	LHP	PHI	57.5	2.5	80.1	78
Yordano Ventura	RHP	KC	62.5	3.0	80.7	79
Kolten Wong	2B	STL	52.5	1.5	81.1	80
Tony Cingrani	LHP	CIN	52.5	2.0	81.7	81
Martin Perez	LHP	TEX	55.0	1.5	81.7	82
Dorssys Paulino	SS	CLE	60.0	4.0	82.7	83
Jonathan Schoop	SS	BAL	55.0	2.5	84.4	84
Matt Davidson	3B	ARZ	52.5	2.0	84.6	85
Slade Heathcott	CF	NYY	60.0	3.0	84.7	86
James Paxton	LHP	SEA	52.5	2.0	85.0	87
Andrew Heaney	LHP	MIA	60.0	2.0	85.6	88
Roberto Osuna	RHP	TOR	57.5	3.5	86.3	89
Lance McCullers	RHP	HOU	67.5	3.5	86.3	90
Corey Seager	SS	LAD	57.5	3.0	86.4	91
Arodys Vizcaino	RHP	CHC	65.0	3.5	86.4	92
Delino DeShields	2B	HOU	57.5	2.5	86.9	93
Zach Lee	RHP	LAD	55.0	2.5	87.1	94
JR Graham	RHP	ATL	55.0	2.0	88.1	95
Daniel Corcino	RHP	CIN	55.0	2.0	88.7	96
Leonys Martin	OF	TEX	50.0	2.0	90.6	97
Didi Gregorius	SS	ARZ	52.5	1.5	92.1	98
Joe Ross	RHP	SD	57.5	3.5	92.4	99
Hyu-Jin Ryu	LHP	LAD	52.5	1.0	92.6	100
Eddie Rosario	2B/CF	MIN	52.5	2.5	92.7	101
Adam Eaton	CF	ARZ	52.5	1.0	93.4	102
Adalberto Mondesi	SS	KC	62.5	4.0	93.4	103
Brad Miller	SS	SEA	50.0	2.0	93.4	104
Jorge Alfaro	C	TEX	65.0	4.0	93.6	105
AJ Cole	RHP	WSH	57.5	3.0	94.3	106
Dan Straily	RHP	OAK	50.0	1.5	94.3	107
Clayton Blackburn	RHP	SF	52.5	2.5	94.6	108
Luis Sardinas	SS	TEX	60.0	3.5	95.4	109
Chris Stratton	RHP	SF	55.0	2.5	95.4	110
Carlos Sanchez	SS	CHW	50.0	2.0	95.7	111
Alex Colome	RHP	TB	55.0	2.0	95.9	112
Jarred Cosart	RHP	HOU	57.5	2.5	97.0	113
Avisail Garcia	OF	DET	57.5	3.0	97.1	114
Cody Buckel	RHP	TEX	50.0	2.0	97.3	115
Marcell Ozuna	OF	MIA	55.0	3.0	97.3	116
Robbie Erlin	LHP	SD	50.0	2.0	97.7	117
Ethan Martin	RHP	PHI	57.5	2.5	98.0	118
Chris Owings	SS	ARZ	52.5	3.0	98.1	119
Michael Choice	OF	OAK	57.5	3.0	98.3	120
Bruce Rondon	RHP	DET	55.0	2.0	98.4	121
Henry Owens	LHP	BOS	57.5	3.0	98.4	122
Michael Fulmer	RHP	NYM	55.0	3.0	98.4	123
Joc Pederson	OF	LAD	52.5	2.5	98.6	124
Kyle Parker	OF	COL	50.0	2.5	98.6	125
Stryker Trahan	C	ARZ	55.0	3.0	98.9	126
Brett Jackson	OF	CHC	52.5	2.5	99.0	127
Marcus Stroman	RHP	TOR	57.5	2.5	99.6	128
Victor Sanchez	RHP	SEA	57.5	3.5	99.6	129
Adam Morgan	RHP	PHI	57.5	2.5	99.7	130
Tyler Thornburg	RHP	MIL	52.5	1.5	99.9	131
Christian Bethancourt	C	ATL	57.5	3.5	99.9	132
Tyrell Jenkins	RHP	STL	57.5	3.5	100.0	133
Matt Wisler	RHP	SD	52.5	2.5	100.0	134
Joey Gallo	3B	TEX	62.5	4.0	100.1	135
Jose Iglesias	SS	BOS	47.5	2.0	100.1	136
Chris Reed	LHP	LAD	55.0	3.0	100.3	137
Sean Nolin	LHP	TOR	52.5	2.0	100.4	138
Brandon Maurer	RHP	SEA	52.5	2.5	100.4	139
Dan Vogelbach	1B	CHC	55.0	3.0	100.6	140
Josh Bell	OF	PIT	60.0	3.5	100.7	141
Nathan Karns	RHP	WSH	52.5	2.5	100.7	142
Lewis Brinson	OF	TEX	62.5	4.0	100.7	143
Gary Brown	OF	SF	55.0	2.5	100.7	144
Eduardo Rodriguez	RHP	BAL	50.0	3.0	100.9	145
Roman Quinn	SS	PHI	60.0	3.5	100.9	146

I thought it would be interesting to put these prospects up against each other to see the interplay between their talent and the risk of reaching that talent. The very top talent have high ceilings and low risks, which is what we would expect. Profar and Bundy act as an example of the interplay as Profar seems to have a slightly lower ceiling, but he has a slightly lower risk as well, putting him over the top.

Taking a look further down the list, Mike Zunino is the first one that jumped out to me because of his 57.5 grade as opposed to the 60+ grades around him, but his much lower risk against those that follow help it make sense. We get all the way down to the late 50s before we start seeing 50 grades start popping up, but the risks of those prospects are, again, lower than that of the prospects around them. A couple 70 grade prospects in Bubba Starling and Lucas Giolito are in this range, but their risks due to inexperience, rawness, and injury push them down the list.

A break seems to happen in that 50 ranking range as the late 50s are where the 50 grades start showing up with more regularity. A few straight 50 grades are Carlos Sanchez (111), Cody Buckel (115), Robbie Erlin (117), and Kyle Parker (125), and their grades are, as expected, relatively lower than their peers. The only sub-50 grade that shows up is Jose Iglesias (136).

Let’s also take a look at the top prospects as a whole.

Measure	GRADE	RISK	Low	Med	High	Ext
Average	59.538	2.5	58.875	57.955	61.085	64.643
Correlation to RANK	-0.727	0.288

This is more of an exercise in curiosity. It’s easy to comprehend farm systems being of lower quality than others, but I wanted to know if there was difference year-to-year in the quality of top prospects. The numbers above don’t answer that question, but it’s something I’ll keep an eye on in the future. As for the correlations, they come out about as we would expect – mostly based off the player’s ceiling.

Again, I don’t claim to have all the answers here. When I started this project, I was curious about how a prospect’s ceiling/grade and risk worked in relation to each other. How did it affect their status? How did grade and risk affect the status of a farm system? There are no real answers. It’s just cool to see it all laid out, and I hope you’ve enjoyed the series.