Byron Buxton’s Tough First Day

During our marathon Opening Day chat at FanGraphs on Monday — you can revisit all 27,000 words here — I was tasked with following the 4 p.m. ET games. That slate of games featured an unfair fight between Clayton Kershaw and the Padres, the entrance of Zach Britton into a tie game against the Blue Jays, and the Twins against the Royals. While I flipped between games trying to maximize the use of the one available television in my living room, I tried to take in most of Byron Buxton’s day at the plate.

As you’re probably aware, Buxton was once the consensus No. 1 prospect in the game. He, unfairly, drew Mike Trout comps. While he’s certainly not anywhere near Trout the batter, Buxton is one of the premier athletes in the game. He made the first five-star catch of the season Monday as MLB.com documented both with video and Statcast data.

But Buxton will never fully unlock his potential, his considerable potential, until he cuts down on the swing and miss in his game.

Even during his excellent September, when he offered hope of a turnaround, a .287/.357/.653 slash line, and nine home runs over the final 29 games of the season — exhibiting burgeoning power to go with his plus-plus speed — Buxton still struck out in 33.6% of his plate appearances. He finished with a 35.6% strikeout rate for the year, a mark that was largely responsible — along with a healthy dose of infield pop ups — for his unsightly .225/.284/.430 slash line and 86 wRC+. His strikeout rate increased four points from his brief exposure to major-league pitching in 2015. And he even struck out 28% of the time during his demotion to Triple-A last season, covering 209 plate appearances.

Judging from my weekly chats here, Buxton is of some interest to many this year given a strong finish to 2016 that coincided with swing adjustments, including a return to the leg kick he used in high school but which was originally phased out by the Twins. He struck out in 20% of his at-bats this spring. While perhaps not ultimately significant, it was preferable to striking out in more than a third of his plate appearances.

This time of year always carries a small-sample disclaimer. It’s April. We don’t want to make too much of performance. But I was curious to see if Buxton, on Day One, would seem different, improved — as far as his approach goes — from the Buxton of 2015 and 2016. I was in search of compelling anecdotal evidence.

His first day back at work in 2017 was a tough one, as he continued to struggle to recognize and make contact with breaking balls and changeups.

Buxton saw 21 pitches over five plate appearances in his first work of 2017: 10 fastballs, seven changeups and four sliders. He swung at 10 of those breaking and offspeed pitches. The following GIFs document those 10 swings: seven swings and misses, two foul balls, and an infield pop up for an out.

Here’s Buxton’s first plate appearance of 2017, against a tough opponent in Danny Duffy, who possesses a quality changeup and slider:

Buxton swung and missed against the first change at which he offered. Later in the at-bat, after swinging through a fastball, he whiffed on a changeup for the strikeout…

While the first change was elevated, it had fading action away from Buxton. The second changeup was a nasty pitch few hitters with which would have success.

But it’s also a pitch with which Buxton continues to struggle. To date in his short career, Buxton has whiffed on 45.1% of changeups at which he’s swung, 45.9% of sliders, and 48.3% of curveballs. He had the 19th-highest swinging-strike rate in the game last season (15%) among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances.

In Buxton’s second at-bat in the third, Duffy started him off with two straight changeups …

Granted, they were excellent changeups, pitches that featured velocity separation and which faded below the zone. Nevertheless, through the first three innings of the season, Buxton and swung over the top of four changeups. He did contact a changeup later in the at-bat, fouling it down the third-base line…

… before his at-bat concluded with a line out to center off a fastball.

In the fifth, his third time facing Duffy, Buxton watched a changeup be called for a strike and then whiffed on a slider down…

And finished by striking out on his fifth swing and miss via changeup…

In the seventh, Peter Moylan began Buxton with five straight sinkers before back-to-back sliders.

Buxton fouled off the first, before swinging and missing at the second for his third strikeout of the afternoon. But these were not particularly good sliders.

While Buxton demonstrated a discerning batting eye in the minors, while he was not among the worst chasers in the game last season (ranking 74th in out-of-zone swing rate), he was grouped with Todd Frazier, Joc Pederson and Brett Lawrie in terms of zone-contact percentage.

In his final plate appearance of the afternoon, Buxton made it a one-pitch at-bat by popping up on a hanging Mike Minor changeup. It appeared to be a missed opportunity.

It was a rough first day for a player from whom so many hope and desire to see great improvement — from the Twins to fantasy leaguers. It was just one day, maybe it was back-to-school nerves, but it was more of the same as Buxton struggled to identify and contact offspeed and breaking pitches and do damage against pitches that were hanging in the zone.

Buxton, like everyone, knows the weaknesses and adjustments that need to be made. This April, we will continue to look for signs of progress, and hope he can tighten his holes and unleash his considerable gifts.