Cal Raleigh Has Set a Record, and Leveled the AL MVP Race

Early in the season, the American League Most Valuable Player race didn’t look like much of a race at all. Continuing a stretch of dominance dating back to the latter days of April 2024, Aaron Judge was destroying opposing pitching at a level not seen since Barry Bonds, putting himself on a pace to challenge his 2022 AL record of 62 home runs and even flirting with a .400 batting average. He couldn’t maintain that breakneck clip, however, and while he’s cooled off, Cal Raleigh has closed the gap, setting a home run record of his own while powering the Mariners’ bid for a playoff spot.

On Sunday against the Athletics at T-Mobile Park, Raleigh went 3-for-5 with a pair of two-run homers, both off lefty Jacob Lopez; the first had an estimated distance of 448 feet — his longest of the season — and the second 412 feet. On Monday against the Padres, Raleigh went deep against JP Sears, a solo homer with an estimated distance of 419 feet.

The home runs against the A’s were Raleigh’s 48th and 49th of the season; with them, he tied and then surpassed Salvador Perez’s 2021 total to claim the single season record for a player whose primary position is catcher. The shot against the Padres was his 50th, an unfathomable number for a player who spends most of his days squatting behind the plate.

Raleigh was actually serving as the Mariners’ designated hitter on Monday. As the Royals did (and still do) with Perez, the Mariners have kept Raleigh’s bat in the lineup on days he’s not catching by DHing him. In 2021, Perez hit 33 homers in 122 games as a catcher and 15 homers in 40 games as a DH. Through Tuesday, Raleigh has hit 40 homers in 99 games as a catcher, and 10 in 31 games as a DH. The first of those totals gives Raleigh a clear shot at the single-season record for home runs hit as a catcher (i.e., excluding those hit while playing other positions):

Raleigh has been so prolific that he actually has a shot at Judge’s single-season record as well. In 2022, Judge hit 52 homers through his team’s first 133 games, so Raleigh is just two off that pace. In the near term, staying abreast is going to be particularly challenging, as Judge not only homered in game 133, but also games 134 through 136 before cooling off slightly.

Regarding Raleigh’s chances at 60 homers or more — a feat accomplished nine times by six different players — Dan Szymborski was kind enough to run the ZiPS odds. By the system’s estimate, Raleigh currently has a 32% chance at reaching 60 homers, 25% for 61, 17% for 62, and 7% for 63, which would give him the AL record.

Of course, Raleigh has done more than just hit dingers for the Mariners, and the success of his season doesn’t depend on whether he gets to 60 homers, or 63. He’s batting .245/.352/.591 for a 159 wRC+, second in the AL behind Judge. He’s drawn more walks (76) than any AL player besides Judge (91), and despite his famously sizable caboose and 17th-percentile sprint speed, he’s stolen a career-high 14 bases in 17 attempts.

Raleigh has done all this while playing strong defense at the toughest position. He hasn’t allowed a single passed ball in 99 games behind the plate; the Tigers’ Dillon Dingler is the only other catcher who’s done that in similar playing time (96 games). Raleigh’s 24.7% caught-stealing rate doesn’t make him the second coming of Yadier Molina, but it’s still nearly three percentage points above the league average (21.8%).

Raleigh’s best defensive attribute is his pitch framing. By FanGraphs’ estimate, he’s been eight runs above average in that department, the majors’ fourth-highest total. Other measures place the value of his framing in a similar ballpark. By Statcast’s estimate, Raleigh’s framing has been four runs above average, his throwing two above average, and his pitch blocking one below average, the absence of passed balls notwithstanding (the Mariners’ 45 wild pitches rank third in the AL). Baseball Prospectus grades Raleigh’s framing at 8.5 runs above average, his throwing at 0.6 runs above average, and his blocking at -0.3 runs below average. Sports Info Solutions, which tracks DRS, includes a breakout for Strike Zone Runs; it isn’t included in Baseball Reference’s calculations for WAR, but it is published both there as RszC, and at FanGraphs as rSZ. By SIS’ estimate, Raleigh’s framing has been four runs above average.

Through Tuesday, Raleigh is tied with Judge for the lead in FanGraphs’ version of WAR with 7.3. With DRS as the defensive input, he trails Judge in Baseball Reference’s version of WAR, 6.8 to 5.9 — but given that’s without being allowed credit for his framing, I don’t think that’s the right way to compare them. Having turned to fWAR for catcher valuations in my Hall of Fame deliberations, I think our measure is the better tool for the job, whether we’re comparing catchers to other catchers or to non-catchers. I realize that not everybody is on board with the notion that catchers’ framing ability — which exists within the margins of umpires’ ability to perceive the outlines of an invisible strike zone and make snap judgments in real time — should be rewarded, but I’m reminded of a quote from Angels catcher Jason Castro in 2020, which Davy Andrews called attention to a couple years ago:

“My job is to keep strikes strikes. I mean, that’s really what I’m trying to do: Reward the pitcher as often as possible for doing his job. Everything outside of that is kind of like cherry on top, if you can get some extra pitches.”

As for those who have reservations about whether framing is somehow “cheating,” the fact is that MLB itself sanctions the practice by tracking pitch framing via Statcast and celebrating its top practitioners. What’s more, the future of robotic umpiring via the Automatic Ball and Strike system will rely upon a limited number of challenges per game as opposed to electronically calling every pitch, another sign that framing is here to stay. It’s a skill, albeit one whose value has diminished somewhat as the floor has risen due to instruction for improved technique (such as the one-knee catching stance) and the weeding out of the laggards. Long story short, framing is germane to any discussion of catcher value, including MVP arguments, and I don’t think we can fairly evaluate Raleigh’s MVP case without considering his impact on keeping strikes strikes.

Mind you, I don’t think WAR (of any flavor) should be the sole input in MVP consideration. It’s a context-neutral measure that levels the playing field by adjusting for the things we can adjust for, but it’s a bit noisy, particularly regarding defense. It’s fair to incorporate context into MVP deliberations, and we can do much better than RBI (where Raleigh has a 107-93 edge on Judge) with stats such as Win Probability Added, Championship WPA, Clutch, and RE24.

I’ll get to those, but first as for Judge, early in the season it appeared as though he’d easily bank a third MVP award after winning in both 2022 and ’24. As late as May 21, he still had a batting average above .400 (.402/.491/.755, good for a 237 wRC+), and as late as August 6, he still had a slugging percentage above .700 (.339/.446/.702). That last date is shortly after the slugger returned from a 10-day stint on the injured list due to a right flexor strain. The injury, suffered while attempting to throw a runner out at the plate on July 26, has limited Judge to DH duty, forcing manager Aaron Boone to test Giancarlo Stanton in right field to keep his red-hot bat in the lineup. Judge, who was on a 58-homer pace before landing on the IL, says the injury hasn’t affected his swing, but his .200/.373/.385 line (116 wRC+) with three homers since returning says otherwise.

Still, the big fella leads the majors in every category with his .321/.437/.663 (192 wRC+) overall line. Through Tuesday, he held the batting average lead by five points over Jonathan Aranda, the on-base percentage lead by 34 points over Will Smith, the slugging percentage lead by 51 points over Shohei Ohtani, and the wRC+ lead by 23 points over Ohtani.

After logging more playing time in center field than right in 2024 (and in 2022 as well), Judge has played exclusively right field this season when not DHing. In 80 games, he’s been above average in right by both DRS (two runs) and FRV (four runs), but when he’ll return to the field is in question. He’s currently going through a throwing progression; earlier this week, he reportedly threw to bases from his spot in right field for the first time since the injury, albeit not at 100%, and described not being able to play defense as “brutal” given his ability to help his team. The longer he’s limited to DHing, the more it suppresses his value, so if you’re using WAR to guide your MVP vote (real or theoretical), the picture could change before season’s end.

Here’s a comparison of Judge and Raleigh in terms of their respective monthly and running stats:

At least from the vantage of those end-of-the-month cutoffs, the two players were separated by more than a win in the early going. Raleigh closed the gap when Judge tailed off in June, and since then, the two have been less than half a win apart. Raleigh himself cooled off in July to the point that he was less valuable in more playing time. Both players are flirting with the Mendoza Line this month, but while they’ve remained above-average producers thanks to their power, others have picked up ground on the WAR leaderboard, and one in particular may belong in the MVP discussion as well: Bobby Witt Jr., whose remarkable 10.5-WAR season last year, which featured 32 homers, 31 steals, 12 FRV, and a 169 wRC+, was overshadowed by Judge’s 11.3-WAR season.

Witt hasn’t been quite as stellar this year, but he’s hitting .296/.353/.501 (129 wRC+) with 19 homers and 34 steals while playing even better defense (15 FRV). His 6.5 WAR is third in the majors behind Judge and Raleigh, but he’s closing the gap. In Monday’s edition of his newsletter, Joe Sheehan pointed out that since the All-Star break, Witt has been more valuable than the other two candidates combined in terms of fWAR, now with 1.9 to Raleigh’s 1.2 and Judge’s 0.3. Shoehorning him into the table above:

While both the Yankees (72-60) and Mariners (71-62) led their respective divisions for a good stretch of the first half, they’re now second and third in the Wild Card race behind the Red Sox (73-60). The Royals (68-65) were 31-28 through May but went 8-18 in June and were 47-50 at the All-Star break. They’ve gone 21-16 since and are now three games behind the Mariners for the third Wild Card spot — still long-shots (14.2% Playoff Odds), but with odds improving from 5.4% as of August 8. It’s not too late for them to change the narrative of their season, and likewise, with a month to play, it’s not too late for Witt to nose his way even further into the discussion.

Turning to those context-sensitive measures:

Raleigh leads the AL in regular ol’ WPA and cWPA, the Baseball Reference stat that measures a player’s impact on a team winning the World Series. Judge is second in the league in both of those categories and first in Context Neutral Wins (WPA/LI), which takes into account the game leverage of that WPA. Judge also leads in RE24, the run expectancy based on the baserunner/out state but excluding the inning/score state, and its companion, REW, a conversion of that RE24 figure to wins; the exchange rate varies based upon scoring environment. Witt’s only edge on these players is in his Clutch score, which tracks the difference between how much better a player does in high-leverage situations than in a context-neutral environment.

I don’t think one can currently make a strong enough case to anoint Witt MVP ahead of the two sluggers; Sheehan’s point was that with one month to play, he’s within striking distance despite having a very different arc to his season. Right now, Raleigh and Judge appear to be neck-and-neck, and they’re heading into the home stretch. In four weeks, we may have more clarity as to who deserves the MVP award, and it should be a lot of fun seeing how the race plays out.