Can Jose Quintana Save the Cubs?

The Cubs staved off elimination last night through the might of Javier Baez, retaining the hope of becoming the first back-to-back World Series winner since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees. As a reward for their survival, they get to face the best pitcher of this generation in Clayton Kershaw, who has a chance to exorcise some postseason demons of his own with a decisive putaway performance.

But this isn’t about Kershaw. It’s about the man the Cubs send to the mound opposing him. Jose Quintana, whom the Cubs received for a very reasonable return, was acquired for this very reason, and the changes he made since coming to the North Side may set him up for success against the Dodgers tonight.

Quintana’s trade to the Cubs surprised some, but only because of the location. Long rumored to be on the move from a clearly rebuilding White Sox team, Quintana was the prize of the major-league roster left after Chris Sale made his way to Boston. Quintana always has been a solid rotation piece, never having put up fewer than 3.5 WAR in his five full seasons, but also never was seen as an elite frontline guy. That said, the Cubs wanted to add pitching, and Quintana represented one of the best options on the market. After his acquisition, the Cubs could run a playoff rotation that featured Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, and Quintana, representing an upgrade over a rotation that gave up just 28 runs in 96.1 playoff innings last year.

In his three months in a Cubs uniform, Quintana showed us the heights that he could reach, like against the Orioles in his first Cubs start and against the Brewers later in his penultimate regular-season appearance. He exceeded his production on the South Side in 20 fewer innings, and followed that up with 11 innings of well-pitched playoff baseball in a pair of starts against the Nationals and against these same Dodgers in Game 1. It wasn’t always brilliant — see August 25th against the Phillies, for example — but Quintana definitely made good on the return the Cubs got.

What adjustments did he make during his time on the Red Line? He seems to have done something: Cubs manager Joe Maddon, for example, referenced some changes adopted by Quintana between a pair of starts in late August, although he didn’t specify what they might be. The most obvious one appears to concern Quintana’s release point, which appears to have changed slightly from his time with the White Sox. Across all his pitches, the difference appears to be a release between half and one inch closer to the body and one to two inches higher. We can see an example of the small change visually in one start from early April with the Twins, and another in September against the Cardinals.

That image on the right features the first two images superimposed on one another. While a total change of at most one-and-a-half inches in release might not seem like much, it can have many implications for the movement and effectiveness of Quintana’s pitches. His fastball, sinker, and changeup all have seen more horizontal movement since the trade, each increasing by over an inch of arm-side run. The added movement has helped Quintana’s bottom line, as his sinker, fastball, and changeup are generating more whiffs per swing, while his changeup is seeing more ground balls when opponents do put the ball in play.

The sinker and changeup have especially turned around, going from borderline disasters to near-weapon status. This newfound — or, in the sinker’s case, returned — effectiveness allows Quintana to lean on them more. The sinker is now the primary pitch in Quintana’s arsenal (35.1%, up from 23.6%) while the changeup, still almost exclusively a righty-killer, has also seen a very slight uptick in use (10.4%, up from 8.1%). These two pitches will be key against the right-handed-heavy lineup that the Dodgers would be expected to send to the plate tonight.

If Quintana can effectively locate those two pitches, back-dooring a few changeups and generating whiffs and weak groundballs on the outer half of the plate, the Cubs could head back to Los Angeles with slim hope still alive. With Wade Davis likely unavailable, or barely available, and Joe Maddon having no faith in any of his other relievers, the Cubs probably need seven or maybe even eight strong innings from Quintana tonight.

They traded for a workhorse, and now that’s exactly what they need him to be. Still perhaps a bit under the radar on the national scene, Quintana has a chance tonight to introduce himself to the general baseball population. With the adjustments he’s made, he may very well be the Cubs’ best pitcher, and on a night where Maddon would love to avoid the bullpen, Chicago would love to see Quintana take the ball and not give it back.