Cardinals Bet Big on 2019 with Paul Goldschmidt Trade
After missing the playoffs for three consecutive seasons, the St. Louis Cardinals appear to be pushing some chips into the pot for next season by trading for Paul Goldschmidt. Derrick Goold reported the sides were closing in on a deal, while Jon Heyman first reported the deal as done. The Diamondbacks appear to be the first to report their return. Here’s the trade.
Cardinals Get:
- Paul Goldschmidt
Diamondbacks Get:
- Luke Weaver
- Carson Kelly
- Andy Young
- Cardinals 2019 Competitive Balance B Pick
We probably don’t need to talk a ton about Goldschmidt. He’s arguably been the best player in the National League since 2013, with a .301/.406/.541 hitting line good for a 149 wRC+ and 33 wins above replacement. Over the last three years, he’s put up a 140 wRC+ and five wins per season, and last year was no different. He struck out an unusually high amount the first two months of the season and had a terrible May (46 wRC+), but boasted a strong recovery on his way to typically excellent numbers. There’s nothing fluky in his Statcast numbers. He’s one of the top 10 hitters in baseball, and going into his age-31 season, he’s projected to be one of the top 15 hitters in baseball again. Steamer projects Golschmidt for 4.1 WAR while ZiPS puts him at 3.7. It’s pretty safe to say he’s a four-win player, which even with the higher expectations of offense at first base, makes him one of the top 25 or so players in the game, and the new best player on the Cardinals.
The downside to trading for Goldschmidt is his looming free agency at the end of this coming season. He’ll join fellow Cardinals Marcell Ozuna, Miles Mikolas and Michael Wacha as pending free agents. The first three players make up roughly a quarter of St. Louis’ projected production in 2019. That would seem to create a greater sense of urgency to succeed entering the season, and shouldn’t preclude more additions to try to catch up to the Cubs, at least on paper. More moves seems almost assured, even they are largely to move some depth and redundancy.
As a practical matter, bringing in Goldschmidt likely means Matt Carpenter will play third base next season, pushing Jedd Gyorko to the bench or into a possible platoon role with Kolten Wong. The Cardinals are paying Gyorko $8 million this year, with $5 million more coming from San Diego. Gyorko has a $13 million option for 2020 with a one million dollar buyout. Moving Gyorko to another team, while adding Goldschmidt’s $14.5 million salary, would mean only $6.5 million in additional spending for next season. That would put the club at around $140 million in payroll, $20 million short of what they were a year ago and a full $60 million short of the competitive balance tax threshold, which is likely to serve as an artificial cap on their spending. Last week, I wrote that even with the potential addition of Goldschmidt, the club would still be well-served to chase Bryce Harper. I still think that’s true.
If the team were to add a rental like Goldschmidt, it becomes even more important to add the best player available to maximize the current window. Few expect the Cardinals will actually land Harper given their past and his other potential suitors, but the Cardinals’ president (and owner’s son) acknowledged the possibility to Derrick Goold. It’s worth noting the last time the Cardinals won the bidding war for a premier free agent, it was for a Scott Boras client four years older than Harper. Matt Holliday’s $17 million per year salary equates to $30 million when MLB’s payroll inflation is taken into account. Holliday lived up to his deal and was a big part of one of the most successful runs in franchise history, with five playoff appearances in seven seasons along with two World Series appearances and one title. The team hasn’t been the same since his bat left two years ago. If the Cardinals don’t make Harper (or Machado) a reality, it’s difficult to see them breaking out of the cycle of good-but-not-good-enough they’ve found themselves in the past three seasons. The moderate move has hamstrung the Cardinals, so now they’re being pushed to make the risky one. It’s called the winner’s curse for good reason, but when the alternatives are lacking, putting all your eggs in a single basket may be the only way to carry them.
As for the players the Cardinals gave up, the team could be said to have moved excess pieces, yet they still gave up quality players who have the potential for success. In Luke Weaver, Arizona is gaining a pitcher who pitched very well for stretches in each of the past two seasons, but has faded as the season wore on each time. There were concerns when he was coming up that Weaver’s delivery might mean he would have to move into a bullpen role at some point, but his strong play in 2017 earned him a rotation spot last season. By the All-Star Break, he had pitched over 100 innings and his 4.72 ERA wasn’t as bad as it looked, with a more average 4.04 FIP. His velocity didn’t tick up in relief at the end of the season, further indicating he was a bit worn down. He still has five more years of team control and has starter potential but might also excel in a multi-inning relief role. He reached the majors just two years after he was drafted so at 25, he has room to grow and develop a third, useful pitch that would help him remain a starter.
Carson Kelly isn’t technically a prospect, having amassed just short of a full season in the big leagues over the last three years, but he’s still just 24 years old. He’s only had 131 PA in 63 games during that time so there isn’t much to make of his poor batting line given how little he played behind Yadier Molina. Eric Longenhagen indicated Kelly’s glove is still plus, but wondered if the bat would ever make an impact. He’s posted an above-average batting line in Memphis the last two seasons with a high walk rate, the latter of which could continue in the majors when hitting in front of the pitcher. He’s ready for the big leagues, and he’s got six more years before he reaches free agency.
The two principal players might be spare parts for the Cardinals, what with the club’s rotation depth, Yadier Molina having signed for another two years, and Andrew Kninzer being a good catching prospect in his own right, but they could also step in right away for the Diamondback and be average players. Andy Young, on the other hand, is more of a wild card. He was 12th on the recent Cardinals top 40 prospect list. Longenhagen said he was “[f]ine at 2B, above-average pull power, reasonable contact, knows to attack pitches he can drive.” He is a stereotypical Cardinals’ success story, having signed out of college as a senior for just $3,000 before putting up monster numbers in Double-A last year. As for the draft pick, it gives Arizona a slightly worse pick a year early compared to what they would have received had they kept Goldschmidt and made him a qualifying offer.
Both sides did well in this trade. The Cardinals got a really good player without severely hurting their prospect depth or major league prospects. By doing so, they avoided overpaying for a player they will have for just one season. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks got two major league-ready starters, another decent prospect, and added another top-100 pick to their potential haul next season, where they will have eight picks in the top 100 so long as they don’t bring back A.J. Pollock. It has to hurt to see Paul Goldschmidt go, but this trade should accelerate the team’s window for contention even if they don’t go for it this year.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Doesn’t seem like enough for Goldschmidt
One year of Goldschmidt?
In that case, it was fine. I stand corrected.
Don’t be surprised if the Cards sign Goldy to an extension either in-season or at the end of 2019. I don’t think this was a one-year rental. Especially if they don’t add another big bat. I look at prospects as trade chips as the success rate is relatively low. So, in that context I don’t think AZ got enough back.
Cub Fan, you can’t look at it that way. The Dbacks aren’t going to get MORE in return just because the Cards MIGHT sign Goldschmidt to an extension. The marketplace just doesn’t work that way. As a Dback fan, I was hoping the team would have traded for one or two younger players with more upside, rather than prioritizing major league ready players, but perhaps this was the best offer they were given for a 31-year-old first baseman that may be starting to show signs of a decline (not sure if there was something wrong with him that led to the high strikeout rate earlier in the year that he recovered from, or if we will see more of that in the future). The Dbacks should next look to sell high on Peralta and Hirano, maybe even Bradley, even though he’s relatively young and can fit into a rebuild plan. Or hold the bullpen guys until the trade deadline, when teams are always desperate for bullpen arms, but you risk them getting hurt or performing worse than last year, so I think they should trade them now.
Why would anyone trade for prospects if they only get viewed as trade chips? How would they have any actual value to a team? This isn’t a very good way of analyzing prospects.
You have to assign SOME value to the pieces, otherwise nobody has any value because “anything can happen tomorrow”. Mike trout could get hit buy a bus, probably best not to give him a contract at all!
As david k said, you also can’t say this deal changes for AZ if the Cards sign Goldy long term and pour MORE assets into him. That’s entirely unrelated to the value assigned today with this specific trade.
Turning 1 year of a superstar into a pile of MLB level supporting characters for the next several years is how most trades work involving superstars. This is basic Short Term vs Long Term valuation.
I dislike this comment.
Agreed, this haul feels very light.
I like that ARI got someone with upside (Weaver), but it honestly feels like he’s meant for the bullpen. If the STL org couldn’t close the gap between his FIP and ERA I’m skeptical someone else can.
Someone could make the argument that Goldschmidt’s 1-year contract lowers his value, but still.
Assuming that Goldy puts up 5 WAR in 2019, at a cost of $14.5 million, he would net a value of $25.5 million.
Weaver has 4 more years left of control, if we conservatively assume 1.5 WAR per year, and he makes an average of $7 million a year, this yields a value of $48 million – $28 million = +$20 million.
The value of a competitive balance draft pick + the uncertainties in Andy Young, and Carson Kelly the Diamondbacks should net a value well above the value of Goldy. Not a perfect analysis, here, but roughly estimating, I think the Dbacks got a fair return.
Weaver has five more years of control
Didn’t realize that… Well that makes him all the more valuable for the Dbacks.
BR had Weaver at -1.1 WAR this year, so your ‘conservative’ estimate for him at 1.5 WAR / year might be optimistic.
Did you seriously just use BR WAR (and for pitchers!) while commenting on FanGraphs? LOL
Eh.
Maybe he should have used his 0.1 RA9WAR, but reasonable people can disagree on which version they prefer.
The real issue is using BR war smallish samples to project forward. If you want to characterize value that way, fine. But it generally is not predictive compared to FIP.
Yeah, you need at least 3 years (500-600 IP) of rWAR for starting pitchers – that’s when both BABIP and defensive stats stabilize.
There’s nothing wrong with using bWAR on Fangraphs, specifically. It’s a more general problem: BR’s situation with adjusting runs allowed by DRS gets totally out of whack when they start estimating that Harrison Bader is winning games all by himself. As the defensive values get more extreme and less believable, so too does everything else.
Quite fair – I’d be very interested in a response to DRC/DRA from FG and BR.
Case in point: Bryce Harper was worth 1.3 bWAR last year. That’s less than, say, Robinson Chirinos, and yet I expect Harper will get more than 1 year, 5.75 million.
TKDC, Cool Lester and Sad-T: You’ve written a fine tag-team explanation of bWAR. I can’t wait for your alternating paragraph blog.
CLS and I apparently have different opinions of bWAR (something that I wasn’t aware of until a few days ago).
If I am representing his position well (which I might not be), it’s that over big samples (like a whole career) you start to see bWAR correlating from year to year (an argument that I have not heard before, and would like some references on).
My argument is that from a measurement perspective, it is better to isolate casual mechanisms (what the pitcher can control) from spurious error than adjusting for it in an equation afterwards. This is a better way to handle things in nearly every area of statistics, which is also why FIP predicts future performance well (better predictive validity).
If you forced me to adjudicate between these two perspectives, I would say that bWAR tends to do a lot worse when you get unrealistic DRS numbers because it is only as good as the measurement inputs, but might predict pitcher performance better in the middle of the DRS range. That said, I’m not sure how useful bWAR is when its main advantage (adjusting for defense) gets so out of whack so quickly.
If you’re into this sort of thing, I should mention I’m intrigued by BP’s DRA since it’s basically a more sophisticated (and unfortunately computationally-intensive) version of bWAR. I’d probably prefer that over bWAR if I had to pick an alternative to fWAR. FWIW, BP’s WARP puts Weaver at 1.1 for the year and 1.6 the year before–a little higher than Weaver’s fWAR last year but a little less this one.
It more goes to the fact that past ERA- correlates just as well to future ERA- as past FIP-, or any other estimator, after 500 IP:
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/12844/between-the-numbers-better-with-less-era-estimators/
Non-coincidentally, this is also when BABIP stabilizes for pitchers:
https://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/babip/
So, one a pitcher hits that threshold, I just go with past-RA9 to estimate their true talent, rather than pretending that the only thing separating Mark Buerhle from guys like Ricky Nolasco, Francisco Liriano and Justin Masterson over 1000 innings from 2009-13 was “BIP luck.”
That said – I understand your concern with DRS/defensive adjustments in general.
The question is whether jury-rigging an imperfect solution is better or worse than throwing your hands up in the air and saying “let’s just ignore the impact that the Royals OF defense had on their pitchers’ overperforming ERA estimators.”
Yeah, but if Weaver puts up 1.5 WAR per year, is he actually helping the Diamondbacks, or making them worse? Because 2 WAR is average (an 81 team).
With that logic, no player projected for less than 2 wins should get a MLB contract. Wait, they often do and for as much as 20-30x the league minimum…?
You’re confusing “replacement-level” and “average.” The idea behind the Wins Above Replacement metric is that a player would be replaced not by an average Major Leaguer, but by a “replacement-level” player who, by definition, is worth 0 WAR (but who can also be acquired at 0 marginal cost). By putting up 1.5 WAR per year, Weaver would be making the Diamondbacks 1.5 wins better than if he were replaced by the 0-WAR player.
Now, perhaps in theory, the Diamondbacks *could* acquire an average MLB player in lieu of Weaver, but doing so–as opposed to relying the replacement-level player–would impose a marginal cost that the team might not be able or willing to pay.
Sorry but 1.5 WAR is WAY too high of a number to use for Weaver. Due to the bust portion of possible distributions I would put the number closer to 0.5 but definitely less than 1.0
You’re also making an assumption that Weaver will be that good going forward and thus worth those projections. Maybe he will be and maybe he won’t. Many a failed projection has littered the road along the way. What we do have a good feel for is that Goldy will likely put up very good numbers in STL. And I won’t be surprised if the Cards sign him to an extension.
But you can’t KNOW they will sign that extension! They might want to, but he’s unwilling. He might want to, but they’re unwilling. They might sign him to an albatross contract that make Pujols look like a great use of cash. You can’t evaluate deals based on what happens outside/after the deal.
By the same logic, I could say that Weaver is the missing piece of a package deal that the Cards will use to entice the Blue Jays into shipping Vlad jr. There’s nothing substantiating either of these things other than a baseless sense of what we think these teams might do.
Wins are worth quite a bit more than $8M per right now, aren’t they? You probably understated Goldy’s net value to the Cards (although if he’s more like a 4-win player you have it right).
I actually agree. As teams increasingly reject spending in free agency on fungible players, the value of a cost-controlled average-ish starter declines. In the current market it’s not unreasonable to bet on eschewing this type of return in favor of signing, say, Fiers on a one year deal, and then next year’s Fiers and so on. Any team would be over the moon to get Goldschmidt on a reasonable one year deal, and seems surprising no one would pay more to make it a reality.
Wow torches and pitchforks are out today. Watch what you say, folks.
Well, well, well – guess which team intends to win the NL Central next season.
The brewers, cubs, cardinals and maybe pirates
The first three, yes, but unless the Pirates make some notable upgrades, I’d even pick the Reds over them at this point.
Steamer strongly disagrees, 36.7 WAR vs 29.1, Bucs project as 6th best in NL as of today.
If this was pre-2018 Luke Weaver who everyone was in love with (and rightly so), the Cards would never make this deal. Has there been any analysis about what happened to Weaver last year? Specifically what caused the precipitous drop offs in strikeout and groundball rates with the same pitch selection and increased velocity?
In any case, Goldschmidt has about $25M of excess value. Give him a little “superstar bump” and call it $30M and this seems roughly fair, assuming you think Weaver’s significantly better than his projections (and clearly Arizona does).
Weaver was tipping. (Same with Greg Holland. Check Holland’s immediate, magical transformation once he got to Washington.)
Weaver went from a dynamite changeup in 2017, one of the most effective in the game, to a borderline useless one. Hitters knew when it was coming. Many of the hitters, anyway. All of his repertoire: same velocity, movement, location. Radically different results from 2017 to 2018.
Weaver outperformed his peripherals in 2017, not in terms of ERA-FIP, but in terms of FIP’s inputs. His nearly 11 K/9 was not sustainable running a sub 10 SwStr%. In 2018, his plate discipline numbers were mostly unchanged, yet his K and BB rates both moved in the wrong direction by about 30%, which looks like a moderate overcorrection based on his underlying skills.
Steamer projects Weaver’s 2019 performance to fall in between his 2017 and 2018 (although closer to 2018) and that seems about right barring a significant change in skills.
It’s entirely possible that the Cardinals improved their roster but will not get as much production from first and third as they did last season.
The 2018 contribution of Carpenter / Gyorko / Jose Martinez at the infield corners was 8.7 fWAR. The 2019 projections for Goldschmidt and Carpenter have them contributing 7 to 7.5 fWAR, and that’s assuming Carpenter can hack third full time without giving back a ton of value with a glove.
Yes, but that’s mainly due to Carpenter “losing” 2 WAR (i.e. from 2018 WAR to projected 2019 WAR) which has nothing to do with Goldschmidt.
The unlikely nature of Carpenter repeating 2018 is pretty relevant for whether it’s a good idea for the Cardinals to “bet big on 2019”, though.
Goldschmidt is also losing 1 WAR from his 2018 to his 2019 projection, probably due to the combination of aging and the fact that his K/BB numbers and OBP have gotten worse for the last three years.
Carpenter’s projection is, however, predicated on his producing -11 runs of defensive value…despite his -2.5 UZR/150 at 3B, over the past three seasons (including last year).
Assuming that number holds, he’ll be closer to a 4 win guy next season.
About half of Martinez’s 2018 production was as a RF, so you’re not exactly right there by just adding up their 2018 WAR.
Regardless, most of what you’re pointing to is due to Carpenter’s projected 2019 being about half the value of his 2018. Which, okay, maybe so. But projections have been dogging Carpenter for a few years now, and he’s kept on beating them.
Only a third of Martinez’ wRC (not plus) came in the outfield, but in only 335 innings he managed a -6 DRS there (7 outs below average on StatCast), which would prorate to a worse than -20 full time player. UZR was very impressed with his 3 outfield assists and so thought he was only bad, as opposed to terrible, so he’s got that going for him.
Taking out Martinez’ outfield production knocks maybe 0.75 fWAR off the total, and that’s while being charitable to his outfield defense.
It’s not that I dislike it from a Cardinal standpoint, but I don’t see it as being some big help for them. Between Carpenter and Jose Martinez the Cardinals already had great offense at first base. Goldschmidt is good, but at the very least on the downside of his career. I just don’t see this as pushing them forward.
You gotta have ridiculous standards to basically poo-poo Paul Goldshmidt. So go you anything other than getting Trout is a disappointment?
No. It’s not a disappointment, it’s just that first base was not the position they needed to upgrade. Cardinal 1Bmen hit .271/.356/.503 with 39 HR in 2018. Their 3Bmen weren’t too shabby either: .262/.370/.450 24 HR. So (I did say I don’t dislike it and that Goldschmidt is good) the upgrade at 1st is just not that much, and therefore less impactful. A really good hitter in Jose Martinez is left with probably a lot less playing time. Maybe they flip him for something good. It’s a good deal, but I stand by saying I don’t think it moves the St Louis needle as much as you would expect.
The last time Paul Goldschmidt hit that “poorly” was 2012 – he’s averaged .295/.401/.528 in the past 3 seasons.
Carpenter put up a similar .241/.384/.451 line in 2017, but was better in both 2016 and 2018, averaging .256/.379/.494 in the past 3 seasons.
The main thing this does is let them run a true platoon with Gyorko and Wong (while also using Gyorko to spell Carpenter and Goldschmidt), substantially thickening their lineup.
I think Gyorko will take AB’s away from Yairo Munoz, rather than Kolten Wong.
Wong is a little like Bader — the defense is outstanding enough that he should start 145-150 games, even though there is a platoon factor.
And Wong was excellent at the plate, once the hitting coaches changed. Quoting a Mark Saxon chat of August:
“New hitting coach Mark Budaska advised Wong to forget about launch angle and concentrate on getting on base, hitting line drives into the gaps, and running.”
Over the second half of the season, Wong walked more, whiffed A LOT less, and batted .317/.384/.439. His home run rate evaporated, but he was obviously a much improved hitter overall.
Besides, Carpenter was playing hurt in 2017.
They’re technically upgrading 3B, not 1B, as Carp will move to 3rd. While I’m higher on Gyorko than most, but even I will admit that Goldy over Gyorko is a significant upgrade.
Also, Jose Martinez gives back a significant portion of his offensive value with his terrible lack of defensive value. Besides, if he’s not traded, he’s likely to see a lot of time in RF, anyway.
Technically they are upgrading 3B because the Cards no longer want Jose Martinez to play 1B. Martinez got almost all of his starts at 1B under Matheny (with Carp playing 3B). After pink slips were handed out, Gyorko got most of the starts at 3B and Carp slid back to 1B. That would have been the expected lineup to start next season. It was reported toward the end of the season that the other infielders were uncomfortable throwing to Martinez.
I reiterate this background because too many people are calculating the loss of Martinez’ value at first base in evaluating this trade. No value lost. Hopefully Gyorko is kept as infield utility guy, but I’m afraid that if they make any significant free agent moves, his salary is a place to cut corners.
To be fair, the major reason the Cardinals won the Holliday sweepstakes was because they were the only serious bidder for his services. They basically won by default!
I really don’t see them capable of signing Harper unless they can trade Fowler first (and likely Jose Martinez as well). Now that they have Goldschmidt, the bullpen is easily their biggest need, and they’d have no money left to upgrade it if they spent pretty much all of their remain payroll room on a luxury like Harper.
I expected Craig to apply some of his prospect valuation work to this trade.
Goldschmidt- $25mil surplus value
Weaver – $25mil surplus value
Kelly – $28mil value as a 50FV prospect
Young – $2mil value as a 40FV prospect
Draft pick – ?
Sure, the goal of every trade isn’t to win the surplus value championship, but according to the Fangraphs go to method, the Cards overpaid
Cameron would be so disappointed!
It all hinges on Goldy signing an extension. Many rumors that cards were discussing a trade and sign strategy. If they do then this is a great trade for the Birdos. If he flees, then it’s a bad deal for Cards.
Any extension would be separate from this trade. After all, the Cards could’ve just signed Goldschmidt as a free agent after the season without giving up any players.
If you want to assign value to the right to negotiate an extension before he reaches free agency, that’s fine. But I don’t think the right has a $30mil value
Everything you say is true but the cards have done this with Rolen, Holliday, and Edmonds to name three and of course tried it with Heyward and failed.
The cards do much better with players that have played there a bit vs signing a free agent cold. So for them, this one year window is valuable.
I’m not sure what value it has but it has value to the Cards.
The vaunted best fans in baseball convince everyone to stay. Rolen, Holliday, and Edmonds were a generation ago.
Kind of hard to peg a value on that (pre-FA extension) without looking back in hindsight someday. It’s possible the Cards save money by extending him now instead of bidding against other teams next winter. And they don’t get his 2019 in that scenario.
I would argue the exact opposite – whoever signs Goldschmidt is going to be stuck with an aging first baseman. If somehow making this deal makes them feel like they have to sign him long-term, then it’s a bad deal for the Cards. If they see it as having one bargain season of a great hitter without any long-term commitment to a player on the wrong side of 30, then it’s a good deal for them.
I looked for some comps… started with PA and fWAR rate within 10% of Goldschmidt and got 42 comps all-time.
I got rid of any that debuted more than 50 years ago or any that wouldn’t have played through their age 37 season yet (Tulo and Braun) and any who through age 30 were primarily C/2B/SS/CF. That gets us down to 14.
Next, I eliminated Thurmon Munson as I think the odds of Goldschmidt tragically dying in the near future is far lower than 1:15.
OK, we are getting closer– one more thing to trim the list down, lets also look at total value the last three years for the players [ages 28-30]. Despite similar PA and career value to this point, there is a wide range on the recent values.
Dave Parker on the low end was worth 6.9 wins ages 28-30 and Todd Helton was the high end at 19.1. The average is 13.5 with Goldschmidt coming in at 15.3, so I’m eliminating the bottom players until the averages match Goldschmidt.
This eliminates Matt Williams, Andy Van Slyke, Fred Lynn and Dave Parker and lets press on with some future results from the nine survivors.
OK, now lets see how these guys did ages 32-37:
32: 3.4 fWAR
33: 3.2
34: 2.1
35: 3.5
36: 1.4
37: 1.5
Of course it isn’t that simple. Not every player made it to age 37. These straight averages should be figuring in something like a zero for those.
You could argue that something less than zero is appropriate as not only did they get nothing from the player, but if the player was under contract and was getting premium money like Goldschmidt would be getting, that they’d also be taking a hit on their payroll. I’ll use -1 fWAR.
32: 3.4 fWAR
33: 2.7
34: 1.4
35: 2.5
36: 0.9
37: 1.0
Further, for example Lenny Dykstra’s age 33 season, he only had 164 PA. Again missing a lot of PAs from a big dollar player comes at a cost because you still have to pay them AND find replacements. For any player-seasons with less than 500 PA I’m adding in -1 fWAR per 500 PA. So 3 fWAR for 250 PA would end up counting as 2.5 fWAR.
32: 3.3 fWAR
33: 2.6
34: 1.3
35: 2.4
36: 0.7
37: 0.9
Didn’t make much of a diffence; last thing I’ll do is smooth it out into a more normal looking aging curve
32: 3.5
33: 2.9
34: 2.2
35: 1.5
36: 0.9
37: 0.2
Using the projected $/win from the Cano trade value post and extending it a few years, the comps suggest Goldschmidt would be looking at a 6/$114M extension right now (7/$128M total including the remainder of the current contract).
If having him on their roster helps them to put together an extension for significantly less than that, then I guess there was some extra value in the trade beyond the players/pick involved. And of course they don’t have to decide today, so can spend the next ~11 months fine-tuning his future valuation.
Cameron might be disappointed whenever any other team gets a new first baseman.
“the goal of every trade isn’t to win the surplus value championship”
Especially for the Cardinals, who have been trying to consolidate asset depth for high impact for several years. That probably requires overpaying somewhat. In this case these players have fairly little value for StL next year, or conceivably for the next several years. Cards fans are happy to make a trade like this without losing MLB contributors like Flaherty, O’Neill, Hudson, or Reyes or their higher-ranked prospects like Gorman or Montero.
The Q is what happens after 2019. FAs include Goldy, Ozuna, Wacha, and maybe Carpenter. That’s the inflection point for the franchise.
Yeah – the Cardinals churn out 2-3 Win position players like the Yankees churn out 7th inning relievers.
What they lack is impact,
Carpenter has an option for 2020 that will likely be picked up, but yes the Cardinals will indeed have a busy offseason next year.
Although, they do have the young pitching available to easily replace at least one of Mikolas and Wacha, and O’Neill could possibly replace Ozuna in LF if he can lower his K rate and they find an alternative way to stabilize RF. There’s also the possibility of Gorman taking over 3B (with Carp moving back to 1B) if he can move quickly enough through the system.
Think these surplus numbers are a bit inflated for the Cards’ prospects.
Weaver was a 50 FV SP ($21MM per Craig) and only has 5 years of control left so let’s conservatively call it $17MM even though a pre-arb year is gone, which are the most valuable for the team.
From what Eric has suggested recently, it sounds as if Kelly’s stock is down a bit from when he was a 50 FV last year. He’s probably not quite down to the $8MM valuation of a 45+ FV POS player, but it’s probably more reasonable to assume the industry lies more in the $20MM surplus range than $30MM.
Then the Cards will also be able to offer Goldy a QO after this year, which more than makes up for the comp round pick.
So with Young that puts it in the $35-40MM range for a $25-30MM asset. So I actually happen to agree that they probably slightly overpaid here, but don’t think it’s anywhere near as egregious as this would suggest.
Jose Martinez has no business in an NL lineup. His defense is so terrible—whether at 1b or rf—that his decent (but not great) offense is only able to make him up an “average” player.
I hope the Rays swoop in and trade for Jose Martinez. He’s meant to be a DH and the Cards pretty much have to trade him now. Cards would be smart to get a useful bullpen piece for him (Rays have plenty of guys who fit the bill).
Not a bad candidate team for the Cards to send Martinez to. I am trying to think of who else might be interested in employing him as a DH. The Twins?
They don’t have to trade him, as he could still get some significant playing time in RF, but yes this would be a good idea.
The Rays have Choi as their DH playing for the league minimum. Martinez is arb eligible. Rays are cost conscious so not sure they’d want to give up prospects and pay Martinez several million bucks.
Jose Martinez is not arb-eligible yet.
In a normal situation, I would say I like this for the Cardinals. Goldschmidt is an impact bat, potentially the best one available by trade or free agency. He instantly makes the offense far more potent. And to get him, all they had to do was give up a couple of guys whose stars looked way brighter a year ago. They needed to consolidate talent, and this does it.
But I do wonder whether it makes sense to push in all the chips for 2019. The Cubs are still a very good team. The Brewers are returning largely the same team from a year ago. Both of these teams are going to be at their peak in the next couple of years. Perhaps neither of those guys were in the Cards’ long-term plans, and they’ll make a few more short-term moves in 2020, and 2021, etc to keep them in the game. Or they’ll extend Goldschmidt, which would hurt the long-term balance sheet but give them a few more years with him. Or maybe this is actually a good strategy–guys with one year of control left seem to cost very little in trade these days, so maybe it’s a more cost-effective way of doing it. Maybe because of the pending free agents, the Cardinals figure this is their last run with a bunch of the gang anyway (as Craig mentions). It’s an interesting question.
I don’t know what to make of this from the D-Backs’ side because Kelly and Weaver are confounding, but my guess is that there weren’t many suitors for Goldschmidt. Who is looking for a one-year first baseman, even one as good and cheap as Goldy? Aside from the Astros, I’m not sure there was another a logical match.
Because he only has one year of control left, the excess value on his contract is probably no more than an FV50 prospect. I know they’re not prospects anymore, but I am curious to hear what Eric and Kiley would say about Weaver and Kelly. My guess is that they’d probably hang an FV50 Weaver still, but Kelly is probably down to a 45 at best. That looks like a pretty good deal for the D-Backs. And if they can get the 2017 version of Luke Weaver then they’ve totally scored, because that guy is a 4-win pitcher. I think I’d be happy with this as a D-Backs fan. I think.
I don’t think the prospect of winning a few extra games in a couple years does much or anything to take away the sting of losing the franchise’s greatest-ever home-grown player and their only legitimate chance until now of getting a D’backs jersey into Cooperstown. I don’t think the D’backs got fleeced in this trade–but I do think their fans did.
Randy has a D’Backs hat on his plaque.
If I was a DBacks fan, I would be furious if they didn’t trade Goldschmidt this year and thus only got a compensation pick for him. No need to keep guys for sentimentality’s sake when you know it’s a lost season before it even begins – especially when they can net you some key pieces of your future.
I am a Dback fan and I agree with Jon. It’s sad to see him go, but it’s probably for the best for the future of the team. Since he will have put up the vast majority of his numbers as a Dback, then he’d probably go into the HoF as a Dback anyway, but those kinds of things don’t matter to me all that much.
And if winning “a few extra games in a couple of years” happens to be the difference in maybe making the World Series, or at least the NLCS, it’s probably worth it, since they aren’t getting there with this team in 2019.
It’s not like the Cardinals are going to just break down the roster and rebuild after next season. They’ll still have one of the best collections of young starting pitching in the game along with their ace Martinez, as well another year of Carpenter (probably) and Molina and younger core players like DeJong, Wong, and Bader, with Gorman likely added to the mix by 2020.
Still too early to say “likely” for Gorman. I’m waiting to see him adjust to Midwest League pitching before I give him an ETA less than 2 years.
Its probably worth noting how low the bar is for “productive MLB catcher” these days. Kelly may not be anything special but he doesnt really have to be either. If he can be even a league avg hitter he is probably already a top 5 catcher in MLB.
This. I doubt Kelly hits more than 18 HR in a season, but only 5 catchers cleared that bar last year. He is also average to above average at framing, blocking, and throwing. Combine that with an OBP over .370 the last two years in AAA. This is a 24 year old catcher I’d love to have on my team for 6yrs.
His highest HR total in the minors was 10. Seems like he is a decent catcher who an take a walk hitting 8th.
Maybe AJ Ellis, without the godawful framing?
Kelly hasnt proven his framing yet. He can catch and throw, but framing isnt established
Ellis first got regular PAs at age 31 and put up 3.5 WAR with Kelly’s profile. Makes you wonder what he could have done with a more typical career arc. I could definitely see the comp.
Per Eric A Longenhagen: The average big league catcher in 2018: .230/.304/.372
Dbacks catchers really pulled those numbers down last year!
I’d give the Diamondbacks an “A” for this, but it will obviously be worse if Weaver can’t stick in the rotation. Only one of the guys they got needs to develop into a regular for this to be a reasonable deal for the DBacks, and both Kelly and Weaver look like they could be over 50-50 shots to do so.
Of course you’d feel better if Weaver was coming off his good season, not his crappy one — but if that were the case, he’d be worth more than Goldy straight up.
and STL wouldnt trade him
idk if this improves the Cardinals enough to really move the needle. Surely this saps a lot of Carpenter’s value? Really like the move for both sides, just not sure it is as big as the name attached to it seems.
Carpenter has a -2.5 UZR/150 at 3B last season, and has the same number over the last 3.
I doubt the Cards are too worried.
He has been worth less than that every year he has played more innings. He’s 33 all season. He has significant back and shoulder issues. If he regresses back to the 20 offensive player he was the last 2 years instead of last year’s 33, while playing poor defense and risking more injury, I’m going to think yes, it saps some of his value notably.
Last year’s -2.5 UZR/150 came in 75 games.
In his 2 full seasons at 3B, he managed a -5 UZR/150.
Considering the 15 run gap in positional adjustments, either number would be significantly more valuable than the scratch defense he’s provided at 1B over the last 3 seasons.
Carpenter was playing hurt in 2017, which was easily his worst offensive season dating back to 2013, and even then he was still pretty good. He may start declining due to his age, but he should still post excellent offensive value for at least the next couple of years.
Carpenter lousy defense at 3B isn’t really much worse than his lousy defense at 1B. I don’t see how this saps his value.
Uhh, care to back that 1B claim up with some numbers? Or is that just your opinion?
All lousy 3b defense is more impactful than lousy 1b defense though. That’s just how it works.
True, but also keep in mind that while Gyorko is a pretty good defender at 3B, he’s essentially being “replaced” by a 3-time Gold Glove winner at 1B, which arguably offsets the negative defensive value of moving Carpenter from 1B to 3B.
I like this for the Cardinals, except they really needed Harper.
But for the Diamondbacks, they basically got two low ceiling players. Yes, they might be 2 WAR guys if they play full time and reach their peak ability. But is that actually valuable? Not unless you are aiming to be a 81 win team
The Dbacks might think they’ve figured a way back to 2016 Weaver, who looked like a potential 2/3 starter.
If they turn him into 2013/2015/2017 Pat Corbin (~3.5 WAR/200), this trade looks an awful lot better.
The only way this makes sense to me for the DBacks (other than saving money and having someone to play positions within the construct of a mediocre team), is if they have reason to believe they can turn around Weaver and fix Kelly’s inability to hit MLB pitching, and if they think they have a great idea for the #80 pick. I just haven’t seen any of those organizational skill sets on display yet.
Kelly has 131 few-and-far-between PAs in his MLB career, mostly spent backing up one of the most durable catchers in baseball in Yadier Molina. He just needs regular PAs. With a walk rate above 10% and a K rate below 20%, his path to a 100 wRC+ isn’t a bad bet. The question is what kind of game power he might develop, because he’s always had good raw power it’s just popped up here and there.
Eight picks in the top 100?
Cards need a truckload of resign cash for 2020.
Ozuna
Goldschimdt
Mikolas
Wacha
Carp option
etc……
I don’t know if Goldschmidt can have a good enough year to make me want to buy his decline years. Wacha isn’t a piece I’m worried about. If Ozuna has a bounce-back year and shows 2018 was more shoulder-oriented than just his typical inconsistency, I’d be interested since he’s still under 30, but IMO having all those guys off the books just means more $$ to throw at Arenado.
Doesn’t the freed up money now put Dbacks in the Machado or Harper conversation?
Follow on move would be sign a cheap 1B (Flores, Bour, Adams, Morrison)
Then sign Machado (and trade Ahmed?) or Harper (and trade Souza?) and they would be in the thick of the wild card race.
Younger, cheaper, better, but with a little more cost this year.
No, no it doesn’t. It puts them in the get rid of Grienke’s deal at all costs conversation.
I don’t see the Dbacks entertaining Machado at SS at all, and they already have two third-basemen (Lamb and Escobar). Maybe Harper, but I don’t see them committing something like half their payroll to two guys, unless they trade Greinke.
Since this is the only move the Dbacks have made so far, it’s not yet clear what direction they are going. If they trade Peralta, Hirano, or Bradley, then that will tell us they’re probably looking at a complete rebuild, then clearly they won’t entertain Harper.
What’s wrong with Machado at SS? He’s still a decent at worst defender there, and it is his preferred position.
I agree they’re not likely to shell out the needed cash for either him or Harper, though.
I don’t know if this puts the Cards over the top or if they have a real chance at extending him, but I don’t like it for Arizona. Any time of the best players in the league is just moved because the team is giving up, it’s not a good look. They were good last year, are losing some major arms, and now they can’t be caught looking on Goldy. I would’ve held on until the deadline and at least enjoyed another half season of one of the best hitter to ever wear the uniform. Mariners and now Diamondbacks in full tank mode.
Goldy is just ONE piece the Cardinals need.
His $14 million salary is not a BIG bet. Neither are Weaver, Kelly or Young, none of which figured to play a big part in the Cardinals plans for 2019 and going forward.
Weaver has been a disappointment and his regression in 2018 to a 4.95 ERA is not promising. In parts of 3 seasons in the majors, while his defense has shown promise, Kelly’s bat has not developed as his .154 BA and .415 OPS are ample evidence.
Goldy’s BAT is a big deal, but its not a big bet on the Cardinals part. They know what he offers. Now the Cardinals need to make a BIG bet on a closer and pieces to shore up the pen and the back of the rotation.
The bullpen, yes, but what’s wrong with the rotation? They’ve already got an excellent 1-4 with Martinez, Mikolas, Wacha, and Flaherty; and at least one of Wainwright, Reyes, Gomber, Gant, and Poncedeleon should be able to handle the 5th spot while the others provide excellent depth for potential injuries and/or ineffectiveness.
I pointed out that the Cards were now obviously going for it next season on the trade thread and got downvoted for it, and here’s a whole article saying the same thing. smh
“…And shouldn’t preclude more additions to try to catch up to the Cubs, at least on paper…” Don’t you mean the Brewers?
Another in a long line of lousy D-Back trades (Upton for Prado, anyone?). This smells like they couldn’t wait to do their homework.
Unfortunately, they made their mistake three years ago signing Greinke to a contract they couldn’t afford and then not being able to extend Goldschmidt when could have.
Goldschmidt’s current contract is (has been all along) stupid. He will almost make in 2019 as much as Boston is paying two platoon players who combined aren’t close to him. A team friendly contract for a young player after one breakout year is one thing, but continuing to grossly underpay him for years on end (just because you can) is shortsighted.