Carlos Correa Gets His Mega-Deal in San Francisco

Carlos Correa
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

The Giants made a giant splash on Tuesday night, signing the top free agent remaining, Carlos Correa, to a 13-year contract worth $350 million. One of the biggest free agents last year as well, he took a three-year deal with the Twins worth $105.3 million, but with an opt-out clause that allowed him to hit the open market if a second crack at it seemed like a good idea. After a .291/.366/.467, 140 wRC+, 4.4 WAR season in Minnesota, and an offseason with more owners more willing to make it rain than any year in recent memory, Correa took his shot. It was a well-aimed one.

After Trea Turner got an 11-year, $300 million deal with the Phillies, and Xander Bogaerts landed $280 million from the Padres, it shouldn’t come as a surprise to see Correa comfortably clear the $300 million mark. While he didn’t have the best season of these three shortstops, he’s two years younger than Bogaerts and has a longer track record of success than the remaining elite shortstop, Dansby Swanson (and is a tiny bit younger). As I feel with the Turner or Bogaerts signing, this isn’t really a 13-year deal in a meaningful sense, and while the Giants will undoubtedly be overjoyed if Correa is still a star in 2035, that’s a long time from now. Spreading it out over 13 seasons allows his pre-benefit luxury tax number to be just under $27 million a year, something which seems like an unbelievable bargain right now. It’s technically a 25% pay cut from 2022!

ZiPS Projection – Carlos Correa
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
2023 .277 .356 .462 520 77 144 28 1 22 74 63 114 0 124 7 5.4
2024 .273 .354 .454 531 77 145 28 1 22 75 65 115 0 122 7 5.3
2025 .271 .353 .453 528 77 143 28 1 22 73 66 114 0 121 7 5.2
2026 .265 .347 .442 520 74 138 27 1 21 70 64 111 0 117 6 4.7
2027 .259 .342 .426 502 69 130 25 1 19 65 62 108 0 111 5 4.1
2028 .256 .338 .416 481 64 123 24 1 17 60 59 104 0 107 4 3.6
2029 .251 .333 .402 455 58 114 22 1 15 56 55 99 0 102 3 3.0
2030 .252 .333 .404 421 54 106 20 1 14 51 50 92 0 103 2 2.7
2031 .249 .331 .394 421 52 105 20 1 13 49 50 93 0 100 1 2.5
2032 .247 .328 .385 384 46 95 18 1 11 44 45 86 0 97 0 2.0
2033 .241 .320 .372 352 41 85 16 0 10 39 40 80 0 91 -1 1.4
2034 .238 .315 .359 315 35 75 14 0 8 33 35 72 0 86 -2 1.0
2035 .239 .316 .360 272 30 65 12 0 7 28 30 63 0 87 -2 0.8

2023 ZiPS Projection Percentiles Carlos Correa (592 PA)
Percentile 2B HR BA OBP SLG OPS+ WAR
95% 40 34 .324 .409 .569 160 8.0
90% 38 30 .313 .392 .541 152 7.4
80% 34 27 .303 .381 .516 142 6.7
70% 32 25 .292 .372 .496 137 6.3
60% 30 24 .285 .363 .476 130 5.8
50% 28 22 .277 .356 .462 124 5.4
40% 27 20 .269 .348 .447 118 5.0
30% 25 19 .259 .341 .434 111 4.4
20% 24 17 .251 .329 .416 106 4.1
10% 21 15 .237 .317 .396 96 3.3
5% 20 13 .221 .304 .374 90 2.7

Over 13 years, ZiPS actually guessed slightly less on this one, a departure from the big contracts signed this fall. ZiPS has seen enough in recent years to move to a piecewise function, valuing the first win at $5.26 million and subsequent wins at $9.33 million and a 3% yearly boost in both of those numbers. The percentage boost may seem miserly, but MLB’s salary growth has been short of inflation for a while and certainly way behind revenue growth, and helped by COVID, the average salary increased by only $70,000 between 2017 and 2021. MLB’s competitive tax threshold will remain a significant pain point, as will each number that puts a team into the next “tax bracket.” That first threshold barely budges over the life of the new CBA, only increasing 1.5% a year, from $230 million to $244 million.

In all, ZiPS projected a $382 million deal for Correa with the Giants, with $350 million getting you almost through the end of the 10th season of the contract (2032). The Twins apparently offered him a 10-year, $285 million agreement prior to his signing with the Giants; if Correa had an impeccable sense of timing, they displayed a rather poor one. Essentially, Minnesota was fighting the last war rather than the current one, offering a 2022 contract in 2023. Entering the 2022 season, the ZiPS projection for Correa with the Twins for 2023–32 amounted to $278.7 million.

How big a deal is Correa entering free agency at 28 rather than 30? A pretty big one. Below are the ZiPS projections for if I change his 2023 age.

ZiPS Projection – Correa 13-Year Deals by Age
Age Expected Deal ($M)
25 470.6
26 441.5
27 419.9
28 381.6
29 328.9
30 282.9
31 244.0
32 216.8

Yes, Correa hit the market a year older, but he also entered it with an additional essentially healthy season added to his résumé. During his age 22–24 seasons, a series of injuries resulted in him only being able to play in 294 out of a possible 486 games. For a player that young, it was an extremely concerning development. But he played in almost every game in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and 148 games in 2021. He missed a handful more games in 2022, but these maladies were more of the freak variety: an injured finger from a ball hitting his hand twice in a May game against the Orioles, and a stay on the COVID-19 list.

The cumulative missed time had an obvious effect on his long-term projections, and after ranking second in projected rest-of-career WAR in ZiPS before 2017, he slipped out of the top 20 before the 2020 season. Correa now has a mean projection of 42.4 career WAR remaining. With it looking increasingly likely that Fernando Tatis Jr.’s days a shortstop are mostly over, that’s enough to give him a projection of the best eventual career WAR of any active shortstop, slightly edging out the Mets’ Francisco Lindor.

The Giants have been active in free agency this winter, signing Mitch Haniger, Sean Manaea, Joc Pederson, and Ross Stripling already. However, while all of these players can contribute a lot in an NL West race, none can reasonably claim the mantle of a star, let alone that of a franchise-leading talent. San Francisco previously tried to burn down the NL West with an Aaron Judge signing, but the Yankees swept in to keep their franchise slugger. Truth be told, I think Correa’s a better fit for the Giants. They arguably need a shortstop more than a star corner outfielder, and Oracle Park is noted for its cruelty to power hitters of all stripes. While Correa hits for power, too, he’s more of the gap-to-gap type than pure loft. I’m slightly bearish on the projected home run totals for Correa, but I think he’ll hit more doubles and triples into Triples Alley in deep right-center than ZiPS envisions.

There’s unlikely to be any position controversy, even with Brandon Crawford signed for another season. While I wouldn’t anoint Crawford the best shortstop in Giants history — that plaudit better fits Travis Jackson or George Davis — he’s almost certainly the most valuable one for the franchise since Horace Stoneham hired the moving trucks in 1958. But Crawdaddy turns 36 next month and came back down to Earth after a fantastic 2021 season. Even more importantly, he’s in a contract year, and when Correa finishes his time in San Francisco, Crawford will probably have been retired for a decade. He’s still a fine defensive shortstop and ought to be a compelling replacement at third base over Evan Longoria and Wilmer Flores.

Losing Correa no doubt has to be disappointing for the Twins, but if they were willing to spend $285 million on him, there are other players out there. $285 million might land you Swanson and Carlos Rodón, and if not, at least the vast majority of their salaries. The AL Central is up for grabs, and that kind of investment may make a bigger difference there than any other division in baseball. It would be a shame if the Twins simply put that cash back in their pockets.

After seeing 36 wins evaporate from 2021 to 2022 and with the Dodgers and Padres looking like first-tier contenders, the Giants had a choice either to go big or to accept their lot as NL West underdogs. They went big, giving out the largest payday, by far, in team history. While the Giants have given out big extensions before, they only signed a single free agent to a $100 million dollar contract between Barry Zito and now (Johnny Cueto). The NL West just got a lot more exciting.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

121 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Cave Dameron
1 year ago

Thank you Dan, very cool!

Ruben Amaro Jr.
1 year ago
Reply to  Cave Dameron

Thank you Cave, very cool!

FunFella13member
1 year ago
Reply to  Cave Dameron

This adds nothing to the conversation

gblasius
1 year ago
Reply to  FunFella13

Thank you FunFella, very cool!

sadtrombonemember
1 year ago
Reply to  FunFella13

You’re supposed to be the fun one here. We all have our roles to play.

TKDCmember
1 year ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I think FunFella might be one of those opposite nicknames, like when you call the 400 pound guy “Tiny.”