Carlos Santana Doesn’t Care For Balls In Play
In a series of three GIFs from Friday night’s baseballing match between the Indians of Cleveland and the Royals of Kansas City, I’ll attempt to visually encapsulate Carlos Santana’s 2014 season to date:
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In the second inning, Santana hit his team-leading 18th home run. Later in that very long second inning, Santana drew his MLB-leading 72nd walk. In the ninth, he struck out for the 87th time. Thus became the sixth game this season in which Carlos Santana had at-bats end in all three true outcomes (walk, strikeout, home run). Only Giancarlo Stanton, with eight, has had more TTO games than Santana.
The next day, Santana hit two more bombs and drew another walk. He didn’t strike out, but he did raise his TTO percentage to 43%. That is to say, nearly half the time Carlos Santana has come to the plate this season, he’s either struck out, walked or hit a dinger. That’s quickly approaching Adam Dunn territory, and Adam Dunn is the King of the TTO. In fact, only Dunn, Stanton, George Springer, Chris Davis, Chris Carter and Mike Napoli have a higher TTO% than Santana this year. Difference is, these are all notorious TTO guys. Dunn’s career TTO% is 51%. Everyone knew Springer was going to be a TTO guy. Davis, Carter, Napoli and Stanton all sit between 44-46% for their careers. Prior to this season, 36% of Carlos Santana’s plate appearances ended in a strikeout, walk or homer, which is still high, but not extraordinary high like it is now. This is somewhat of a new thing for Carlos Santana.
Then again, the whole season has been somewhat of a strange one for Carlos Santana.
It was announced in Spring Training that Santana would take over as the Indians everyday third baseman. Not only did that not work out (kind of), Santana struggled mightily at the plate (kind of).
On April 11, in just the 11th game of the season, Santana’s average dipped below .200. A month later, it was at .148. A month after that, it was .178. It wasn’t until June 21 that Santana got his average back above .200. Yet he remained hovering around league-average production thanks to his rare combination of discipline and power. During this slump, some wanted him benched. Others wondered if he should be demoted to Triple-A. His name started to pop up as an expendable piece in trade rumors.
Over the last month or so, Santana has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball, but still his average rests at just .232. He’s still striking out more than ever. Yet, thanks to a career-high .224 isolated slugging percentage and .371 on-base percentage, Santana is having the best offensive season of his career. His .368 wOBA and 138 wRC+ would both be single-season highs since becoming an everyday player in 2010. He’s hitting for more power than ever while also getting on base as often as ever. That’s the best possible combination of outcomes for a hitter, regardless of what batting average might lead you to believe.
Not only is Santana having the best offensive season of his career while hitting under .235, he might finish with one of the best offensive seasons of all-time under .235. According to ZiPS, Santana is projected to finish the season with a batting average of .233 and an OPS+ of 131. Since the liva ball era began nearly a hundred years ago in 1920, only five different players have posted an OPS+ north of 130 with a batting average south of .235. Carlos Pena did it most recently in 2009. Jack Cust did it in 2008. Before that, you have to go back 18 years to Mark McGwire’s 1990 season. Gene Tenace did it three times in the 70’s. Harmon Killebrew did it in 1972 and Mel Ott in 1943. Even if Santana doesn’t end up quite meeting the exact criteria, it’s clear he’s in bizarrely historic company this season.
Even stranger is that there doesn’t appear to be much else out of line with Santana at the plate. There’s nothing different in the way he’s being pitched. He’s hitting both fastballs and offspeed pitches about the same as ever. He’s swinging at the same amount of pitches within the strike zone. He’s making contact at career levels. His batted ball mix has stayed consistent. The only real noticeable differences that sticks out is his career-high HR/FB%, backed by an average fly ball distance of 285 feet, up 11 feet from last season. If anything, given Santana’s spike in homers and strikeouts with no other significant changes, it seems like Santana might just be selling out for power. And selling out for power would make sense given Santana’s situation – the way he’s played defensively and the result it’s had on his batting average. Santana hits into the shift more often than most players in baseball and, as a result, is hitting just .200 on ground balls, well below the league average. Hitting home runs is one way to negate the effect of a shift, and Santana has helped make up for the lack of singles with an increase in his already-elite walk rate.
“But guys who walk a lot don’t drive anyone in!” Well first, two of Santana’s walks this season actually have driven runners in, so it’s not like it’s impossible. But if you’re really of the crowd that places the value of driving in runs over creating runs, Santana’s spike in power has allowed him to drive in runs as often as ever, with his projected 74 RBI falling right in line with totals of 74, 76 and 79 from years past.
Engaging Twitter user Nick W. Schaller also pointed out to me that Santana has improved his baserunning this season by five runs already, becoming an above-league average baserunner after being one of the very worst in the league the last two years. Most notably, Santana is scoring from second base on singles 86% of the time after doing so just 45% of the time prior.
Despite a batting average below .240, Carlos Santana is undoubtedly putting together the best season of his already-impressive young offensive career. His career-high power output is coupled with a league-best walk rate that gives him an elite on-base percentage. His spike in power production has him driving in runs as often as ever while a more aggressive and efficient approach on the bases has him scoring runs as often as ever. He’s creating, driving in and manufacturing runs in every facet of the game. There’s really no arguing with the production Santana has brought to the Indians lineup this season.
If you really needed more proof that batting average doesn’t mean a thing, look no further than what Carlos Santana is doing this year.
August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.
His improved base running could also stem from the position switch. Less time behind home plate is most likely keeping his legs fresh. If only this could have happened two years ago to prevent the Indians from signing Nick Swisher…
This was my first thought as well, that catching less could probably have a positive effect on one’s baserunning.
Eh…it still wouldn’t help Brian McCann.
Or it could be that they have a new 3rd base coach.
And also so far, he’s 3 runs above average this year at first base.
Wouldn’t be the first time a catcher named Carlos turned into a star after moving to first.
There’s been talk that Santana’s time at 3B has improved his skills at 1B, I’m not sure how true that is, but it doesn’t seem like too much of a stretch to believe that putting in work at a tougher defensive position can help a player play better at an easier one.
it’s either a huge coincidence or there’s a lot of merit to it… and I lean STRONGLY towards the latter
Miguel Cabrera’s 1st base defense also has increased after Prince Fielder traded
I’ll bite – who are you referencing here?
Carlos Delgado probably
The other Carlos Santana. He still sucked at baseball after switching from catcher to first. But realized he could play guitar instead and became a star.
Slightly off-topic, but does the “scoring from second base on singles” stat include infield singles?
It does include infield singles. Something like UBR will adjust for that (as well as the difference between balls hit to LF/CF/RF)
Santana was on 2nd when a batter hit an infield single once this year, but scored when the shortstop covering second couldn’t handle the flip from the second baseman. It was ruled an infield hit + an error on the second baseman. Here’s the video:
http://m.mlb.com/video/v33121137/
I’m so glad the yokels calling for Santana to be benched or demoted are far removed from making actual decisions. Santana’s slump was awful, but there was no good reason to think he wouldn’t snap out of it, given his track record.
Did I think he’d snap out of it to the tune of being one of the five best hitters in baseball for more than two months now? No. I intend to hold Santana up as an example every time someone gripes about a good player being finished after a few bad weeks.
There weren’t really too many people seriously calling for Santana to be permanently benched. More of the angst was about Francona continuing to hit him 4th and not even give him a day off when he looked totally lost at the plate. He was finally forced into a short break when he got a concussion when catching, and when he came back from that break his swing was improved. So I don’t think Santana’s season proves that people calling for him to get “benched” temporarily were off base.
I could be convinced that he was uncomfortable playing 3B and/or with switching between positions (he’s only played 1B and DH since the concussion), but he had a monster series just before the concussion, so I don’t think the time off is what changed anything for him.
I know I’ve posted this elsewhere, but his splits as a C/3B are positively Bergenian this year. Something that hasn’t been quantified is definitely at play here. Maybe the defense got into his head, maybe it’s randomness, but, wow, is there a difference when he’s at first. . .
The same can be said about his home/road splits. I’m too lazy to figure out when he played which positions at home and away, but dude really likes playing as far away from the corner of Carnegie and Ontario as he can this year.
But you’re still cool with the yokels who remained silent, right?
Absolutely!
#killBA #notgonnahappen
He can play the hell out of the guitar, too.
Batting average doesn’t mean a thing? It meant something when he was hitting .148. And it meant something when he hit whatever he hit to raise it to .235.
IT’S CALLED AN ADAM DUNN HAT TRICK OKAY: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/introducing-the-adam-dunn-hat-trick/
Is TTO% a thing? I feel like it should be a thing included with the batted ball data or something like that. It may not have a high degree of statistical validity, but it at least seems like a useful/interesting novelty or a grounding point from which to view the rest of a player’s stats.
Well you can kind of eyeball it on counting stats.
LOL that last pitcher
does he always run off the mound like that?
How do we know that Santana doesn’t care for balls in play?
Considering his low Z-swing%, and O-swing%, he always hit the ball he want to hit
The difference between april and July is how hard he can hit the ball. His judgement on his own strike zone has never changed. I think his lack of power in early season is due to 3rd baseman practice
His BABIP has been very low all year as well. While a 20% K rate is fairly high for him, it’s a lot lower than most guys who aren’t hitting .240. Early in the season, his GB% was through the roof, with only about 11% LD. Now that his profile is more normal (18.8% LD, fewer GB, more FB, not a ton of pop-ups), his .256 BABIP still seems low. He’s never been Ichiro on balls in play (career .277), but there could be regression (progression?) potential there. It’s been a long time since the Tribe had a consistently productive 1B, but Santana could be a plus glove and .255/.375/.455 for a while. I’ll take it.
And your DH for the next two years is…Nick Swisher! It’s only $30M. Legitimately did not see “worst player in baseball” coming for him.