Catcher Throwing Is Making a Comeback
Depending on your perspective, it’s a very fun time to be a catcher. Admittedly, I may be imparting some personal bias here since my favorite part of catching was always when a runner took off for second base. It’s the one time in a game when the catcher is in the spotlight. Most of your time as a backstop consists of serving your pitcher in whatever way they need, but with the increase in stolen base attempts this year, catchers have consistently found themselves with golden opportunities to show off their throwing skills. Because of this, arm strength and pop time are as important as they’ve been in the last few decades, and some catchers have been early standouts when it comes to controlling the running game.
The importance of throwing out runners, or even limiting attempts, has made a comeback. As we progress through the next few months, we’ll gain a more precise understanding of just how valuable this skill can be in this stolen base environment, but the early season trends indicate that if you can throw out runners at a good rate, you’ll be one of the most valuable defensive players in the league. And there are a few catchers who have stood apart from the rest of the field when it comes to this being a significant part of their overall value so far. I’m going to highlight two of them in this piece. The first is Gabriel Moreno.
Through the first few weeks of play, no player has produced more defensive value than the young catcher in Arizona and much of that is due to his success throwing out runners. In Moreno’s 2022 prospect report, Eric Longenhagen reported that the catcher sat in the 1.95-1.98 pop time range while in the Arizona Fall League. That would have been slightly above the big league average. However, so far this season, he has been excellent, averaging 1.90 seconds according to Baseball Savant. The combination of his pop time and five caught stealing in eight attempts (63%) has provided the D-backs with plenty of fun, but also with the reassurance that their catcher can still provide value despite struggling offensively (he has posted a meager 62 wRC+ in 52 plate appearances).
Moreno’s J.T. Realmuto-esque athleticism is a crucial aspect of his defensive skills. While it’s clear that being athletic is beneficial to any catcher (or any player for that matter), it’s still worth mentioning how it plays out for Moreno. As a smooth and quick mover, he can quickly transfer the ball from his glove to his hand in each part of the zone while maintaining perfect footwork from a one-knee down stance. Depending on the catcher, this can be very difficult, but Moreno makes it looks easy since his body is so adjustable. Check out these two throws from a one-knee down stance on pitches in different locations from a righty and lefty pitcher:
April 1 (Freddie Freeman running, Madison Bumgarner pitching)
April 10 (Joey Wiemer running, Zac Gallen pitching)
Madison Bumgarner was as slow as can be to home plate. With a long, high leg kick and big arm swing, even a runner with 39th-percentile sprint speed like Freddie Freeman felt confident enough to swipe the base with a big jump. However, Freeman did not account for Moreno’s cat-like quickness and pinpoint accuracy on top of the bag. Accuracy is an important piece of catcher throwing that’s still missing from Baseball Savant’s metrics, but here we can see why it’s so important to be accurate on these throws. It can be the difference between the runner being safe or out on a play like this, even if it wasn’t immediately clear to the umpire. The initial call was safe, but replay review showed that Ketel Marte’s glove hit Freeman’s leg in time.
Moreno was just as accurate on the other throw. Zac Gallen was quick to home, but his loopy curve slowed things down, leading to Moreno having little room for error on the throw. Despite Joey Wiemer’s 95th-percentile sprint speed, Moreno sent him back to the dugout with a quick transfer and a seed down to second. Moreno didn’t get a strike call on a pitch that was in the zone, but his presentation to the umpire was still clear due to his one-knee stance creating a lane for the umpire’s eyes to see the ball. This is an incredible skill to have. Many catchers don’t give the ump a chance to see the location of the pitch, but with this stance, Moreno assures he can still secure strikes while making perfect throws.
Another catcher who doesn’t quite have the framing skills of Moreno but possesses an accurate, rocket throwing arm is Willson Contreras .
April 3 (Ronald Acuña Jr. running, Jake Woodford pitching)
April 17 (Alek Thomas running, Jack Flaherty pitching)
Contreras has always been a standout thrower, but he hardly needed to flex those muscles in the last few years of his career in Chicago. As a below-average receiver and blocker, Contreras’ defensive skills and output were not suggestive of a long future behind the dish as he continues to age. However, if he proves to be a top-tier thrower, his value as a catcher will need to be re-evaluated. So far, he has been the fifth-most valuable defensive player in the league despite his limitations elsewhere as a fielder.
Throwing out Ronald Acuña Jr. and Alek Thomas is nothing to sneeze at either. Both runners had good jumps, but the combination of Contreras’ rocket arm and Jack Flaherty and Jake Woodford’s quick deliveries beat them with plenty of time. Contreras isn’t super quick with his transfer, but his 87.4 mph average throwing velocity makes up for it. That mark is the highest in the league so far according to Baseball Savant. If he continues to couple his great arm strength with his current 123 wRC+, Contreras could be in for a career year with the Cardinals. They would certainly love to continue having a catcher who baserunners fear.
There are more catchers than just these two who have provided their pitching staff with comfort when it comes to handling the run game. Some of those include Elias Díaz (5-for-10 versus would be basestealers), Connor Wong (4-for-6), and Martín Maldonado (4-for-8). On the other hand, some standout defensive catchers from previous seasons have been a liability with throwing out runners: Jose Trevino (0-for-10) and Austin Barnes (2-for-17). Of course, some of this has to do with pitchers letting runners take too big of a lead and/or jump, but it’s notable nonetheless. For example, if Trevino is unable to limit the running game at all this season and going forward, does his value as a framer and blocker make up for his lack of hitting and throwing? On the other hand, a catcher like Connor Wong has been able to add another piece to his game as his bat continues to develop at the big league level. This will be a key contributor in buying him time to stick around.
Players like Gabriel Moreno and Willson Contreras have given their teams an edge while other catchers have done the opposite. It’s still a bit early to know for sure, but if we continue at this rate, we may have to adjust our prior understanding of catcher defensive value.
Esteban is a contributing writer at FanGraphs. One of his main hobbies is taking dry hacks every time he sees a bat.
“. . . whoM baserunners fear.”
it’s about what can be expected from the editorial team.
I think what’s interesting about it so far is that with the CS rate so low (roughly 17%), it would be hard to lose a lot of value from being unable to throw out runners, but there is a lot of room to gain significant value from nabbing runners.
I have been watching a lot of Dbacks game this year and was excited to watch Moreno ever since I saw him play for the Jays. He is starting to heat up a bit with the bat but is just electric behind the plate. He manages pitchers well and has an absolute gun which makes the stolen base attempt super entertaining.
Once pitch framing goes away with the robo-umps, skills like pop time and arm strength are really going to come to the forefront of FO considerations.
The new rules pretty much put all the onus on the catcher since the pitch clock neuters the old “hold the ball” staredown tactic. All the pitcher can contribute is one throw and quick-pitch. Plus four-seamers high, which is trendy anyway.
With a runner on first base, guess hitters should be locked on fastball early in the count.
I’ve been waiting for this article, because with the SB rate so absurdly high I’ve been wondering what the value of a catcher arm is. One could argue that the chances of throwing a base stealer out are so low that you could just punt entirely on it
Oh, and here I thought you were going to write about how Drew Smyly might benefit from being better at throwing Yan Gomes.
Who wouldn’t benefit from being better at throwing Yan Gomes?
I just got curious–who has the fastest pop times? What’s an absolutely elite, amazing pop-time? The answer appears to be JT Realmuto, who has had average pop times in the 1.82-1.83 range from 2020 to the present. Shockingly, that’s faster than he was from 2015-2019, when he was in the 1.90-1.92 range. Which is still good enough to be effectively tied for the lead during that time period, but since 2020 he’s been at five-hundredths of a second faster than anyone else since we started recording this stuff.
It seems like for mere mortals, pretty much everyone tops out at 1.9-ish pop times. Sometimes 1.89, sometimes 1.91, but Gabriel Moreno is in very good company with that pop time. Looking at this, it seems like you can generally make do with a pop time of 2.00 or less, but things start getting dicey around 2.00. For someone like Logan O’Hoppe, who has a pop time of 2.10, I think we can expect a lot of teams to run on him.
Enjoy the article. I’ve been looking at CS % lately and they’re pretty good indicator too I think. Logan O’Hoppe in particular has usually been below 30 % throughout the minors and in the pros he’s 8% this year. But he’s injured now unfortunately. Maldonado has dropped off but in 2018 had a whopping 49%. Realmuto had 47% the year after.
Bob Boone had a career 40% CS rate the including a 58 in 1982. 7 Gold Gloves. I think HOF worthy. But with WAR being the dominant stat today…
And he was a master of framing pitches
I was a bit (but not really) surprised more teams weren’t taking a shot at Gary Sanchez this off season, not as a primary catcher, but potentially as someone’s whose value will increase with catchers needing stronger arms. Sanchez has always had a strong arm, but it got lost as the Yankees tried to improve his pitch blocking. He even had decent pitch framing numbers at first. Curious to see if he value increases any once he’s back in the big leagues. I don’t have high hopes, but arm strength is something he possesses. If he can hold the pitch-framing that rebounded last year, and greater utilize his arm strength, maybe there’s something left there to be salvaged. What happened to his bat is perhaps a bigger question.
A couple of commenters seem to believe the CS rate this season is extremely low. According to Baseball Reference, this season’s CS rate of 17% is the same as last season’s and 2019’s rates. And, it is even better than 2020 (15%) and 2021 (16%). The difference is in the total number of stolen bases this season (.68 SB/G – highest it’s been since 1998) compared to .51 last season, .46 in 2021 and .49 in 2020. However, this season’s CS rate is worse than any other season prior to 2019. So, I guess it is low, but no worse than the previous 4 seasons.
This is good perspective. If 2023 CS rates are in line with prior 4 seasons, is it a) the rule changes and base sizes are not making a notable difference or b) new rules and base sizes enticing slower runners to make attempts who still probably shouldn’t. Case in point: Gleyber Torres and his 35th percentile sprint speed already with 9 attempts and 5 CS in April.
I’m not sure where your numbers are coming from. Fangraphs and Baseball Reference seem to match. From 2019-2022, there were 7864 SB and 2646 CS, a CS rate of 25.2%. The range is 24.3% – 26.7% within those 4 years.
In 2023, 455 SB and 117 CS, a CS rate of 20.5%.
Attempts are also up by ~35%, from 0.64 attempts per game in 2019-2022 to 0.86 attempts per game in 2023.
So even if the CS% was the same, the fact that 35% more attempts are taken means the rule changes are making a noticeable difference. Presumably the past foregone attempts would have a worse than average CS% and bring the average up.
The fact that CS% is down and attempts are up make it clear that there is a substantial difference. Gleyber Torres represents 2.5% of the total attempts this year, and is not a meaningful representation on his own.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=0&season=2023&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=
Indyralph, I’m looking at Baseball Reference Major “League Batting Year-by-Year Averages.” Here is the link (not sure if it will work).
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/bat.shtml
I see. I think those are per game rates. So same per game CS divided by more attempts means lower CS%.
You may note I was asking a question, assuming the data was correct, not stating a fact.
But I do find it interesting, based on your info, that one player with 35th percentile speed represents 1 in 40 steal attempts across the entire league 🤷♂️ it seems some players (or coaches sending him) have an ill advised sense of empowerment to try to steal bases due to the new rules.
Thanks for the article. I look forward to updates as the season progresses.