Of the pitchers expected to be selected in the first round of this year’s draft, Virginia lefthander Nate Kirby is one of the safer bets to remain a starter as a professional. But despite a clean profile, his limited upside restrains my enthusiasm as we head down the home stretch of the college baseball schedule.
Over the last two weeks, my insatiable desire to rank everything manifested itself in a three–part roundup of the buzz, rumors and scouting reports of this year’s top international amateur prospects and an excessively long ranking of the top prospects for this summer’s domestic draft. Earlier this year, I mentioned the top two names already making buzz in the 2016 July 2nd class, so it only seemed reasonable to also dive into the next two draft classes as well.
For obvious reasons, there’s a lot more information available for future draft classes than for future July 2 classes, but there are still limitations to what we can know at this point.
– It’s easier now to scout non-draft eligible high school players because of the showcase circuit, but scouts aren’t focusing on them so many don’t have strong opinions, much less rankings of these players. An average scout’s knowledge about guys on this list is limited to a handful of guys that are on loaded high school teams they see regularly, a guy that really stood out at one summer event they went to, collegiates that play at major programs or that were known prospects out of high school. We have video of most of these players and will start adding it to the FG YouTube page in the coming weeks.
That means making this list is combining what I’ve seen, what scouts tell me, notes from various other sources and which underclassmen are attracting interest from advisors, which is a surprisingly good indicator.
This is the update to September’s list and a lot has happened since then. I chose to rank as many players as there are first round picks and to give reports on them, since those are the guys that matter at this point. I obviously have lots of info beyond that to pass along, but opted to be more general at this juncture.
The next couple section break down plays as sandwich to 2nd rounders or 3rd rounders or others of note, with varying definitions from each group that I note below. The reason I’m less detailed about the lower rankings is because 1) we’re still six weeks from the draft, so this will change 2) it’s kinda silly to act like 45 and 65 are that different at this point and 3) there’s inherent secrecy from scouts about draft rankings, so these will likely change again in the summer when we see these guys compete on an even playing field. For these next two groups, players are presented in order of preference, so you can shift them around a few spots if you want, but the final section of others is in no order at all.
As I’ve said in many places already, this class is very weak up top. The top 15 players listed below have anywhere from six to ten players worth of being picks in the top half of the first round in a normal year. This amounts to 5-9 elite players missing, which doesn’t seem like a lot, but means teams picking in the top 20 will likely notice they’re getting less than they may have expected to get a year ago when the draft class was less clear.
Again, since the draft is inherently secretive at some level and I can’t see every player multiple times this spring, these rankings are a mix of what I’ve see and think and what scouts are telling me. I’d like for it to be 100% my opinion, but that would be foolish, so I have to side with the preponderance of scouts, even when they disagree with me. I’ll link to video from the FG YouTube page where we have it, which is still a lot, but there will be a lot more in the coming weeks, as we have video of nearly every player I put in the top 3-4 rounds.
In an otherwise depressing draft season, Kyle Funkhouser did his best to raise our spirits over the weekend, delivering a signature performance that – outside of Dillon Tate and the recently injured Chris Shaw – most of this year’s top amateur prospects have yet to.
While it is generally regarded as a basketball conference, the Missouri Valley Conference has had a penchant for producing quality professional baseball prospects. Wichita State is the most well-renowned program both in terms of collegiate success and high-end talent (Casey Gillaspie, Conor Gillaspie, Mike Pelfrey and Braden Looper, among others), but Missouri State University has had it’s fair share of pro prospects, particularly pitchers (Ross Detwiler, Shaun Marcum, Brad Ziegler, Scott Carroll, Mike Kickham, Pierce Johnson and Nick Petree).
Junior righty Jon Harris is the present iteration of the highly-regarded MSU hurlers, and while he will not be selected as early as Detwiler (6th overall in 2007), the right hander should be off of the board in the top 40 picks.
Harris was drafted out of a St. Louis area high school in the 33rd round of the 2012 draft, and has put up solid numbers since setting foot on campus. After pitching for the Harwich Mariners of the Cape Cod League this past summer, Harris has received some more buzz, so it was little surprise to see 20+ evaluators, including a handful of scouting directors on hand to see Harris pitch against Jacksonville University two weekends ago.
Florida State outfielder D.J. Stewart was regarded as a first-round talent heading into his junior season, but after seeing him during an Easter weekend series at N.C. State in Raleigh, I came away with a lesser opinion.
A 28th-round draft pick by the Yankees out of high school in 2012, Stewart batted .364/.469/.560 as a freshman, then slashed .351/.472/.557 as a sophomore last year on his way to being named the ACC Player of the Year. He hit a disappointing .232/.362/.316 while playing for the USA Baseball Collegiate National Team last summer, although he’s now carrying a .306/ .506/.595 line through 37 games this season. I got two looks at Stewart last week – one on Thursday and the other on Saturday – which is more time than you want to spend without sunscreen at Doak Field unless you’re a masochist who delights in the stinging pain of hot showers.
University of North Florida OF Donnie Dewees was a largely unknown quantity coming out of high school in Crystal River, Florida. Three years after going undrafted, Dewees has put himself in position to be selected within the first 100 picks, and given the crooked numbers he has put up thus far, he has a chance go significantly higher.
Background
For the (many) uninitiated, let me give some background on Dewees. The left-handed hitting outfielder quickly worked his way into the starting lineup as a true freshman during the 2013 season, finished with a .347/.429/.535 line in 248 plate appearances, and garnered numerous conference and national awards. He continued to hit in summer ball, posting a .321/.393/.526 triple-slash with 12 HR in the competitive Northwoods League.
The results weren’t pretty for Andrew Suarez, who battled himself as much as he did the North Carolina Tar Heels in Chapel Hill last Saturday.
Pulled after throwing 60 pitches in just three innings (4 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 2 SO), the Miami lefthander repeatedly missed with a fastball that didn’t reach higher than 91 mph and was altogether a much different version from the one selected by the Nationals in the second round last year (subsequently becoming the highest-drafted college player to not sign). Granted, a late-February oblique strain caused him to forego his next two starts – missed development time that can explain the lower velocity from last year. But the control struggles were entirely new, as he walked just one batter in the two starts leading up to Saturday.
The primary concern that scouts have about Michael Matuella is durability. So when the Duke righthander was scratched from making his second start of the season due to a forearm strain, it was a setback that led the Blue Devils training staff to keep him on strict pitch counts over his next few appearances. On Friday night against Pittsburgh, however, the reins were loosened and he showed evaluators the form that made him a candidate to be a top-five draft pick before the season began.
February has passed and so too has the feverish sprint of college baseball here in Arizona. While the rest of the country remains numb and depressing, the Valley of the Sun has been teeming with activity. During February’s twenty-eight days, seventeen Division 1 programs with draft-worthy players (not counting Grand Canyon and Arizona State) ventured to the Phoenix Metro area for tournaments and the like. It made for a whirlwind month of scouting.
Below are reports on 2015 draft eligible players I felt were worth discussing in descending order of their Future Value grades. A Pref List, if you will. I’ve excluded most players from schools who will be back down my way again this spring (like Oregon State, New Mexico and UNLV) for obvious reasons as well as notable underclassmen who aren’t draft eligible this year, like Nebraska CF Ryan Boldt and Oregon State C K.J. Harrison; I’ll write them up in a separate post.
I actually wrote a good bit more about the lower level guys in this post but due to concerns about length and your attention spans, this post was cut down considerably. For the unabridged version, you can go here to my poorly maintained personal blog.
