Due to a fractured thumb, the Royals will be without Mike Moustakas for at least the next few weeks. No doubt, Kansas City will miss their three-plus win, All-Star third baseman. But as is often the case in baseball, one man’s misfortune is another’s opportunity. In this instance, the beneficiary is Cheslor Cuthbert, whom the Royals recalled from the minors to replace Moustakas.

Unless you’re a Royals fan or a prospect connoisseur, you might have no idea who Cheslor Cuthbert is, but my nerdily-sorted spreadsheets really like the Nicaraguan infielder. Last year, he hit .277/.339/.429 as a 22-year-old in Triple-A. He also struck out in an encouragingly low 14% of his trips to the plate. He already looks like a Royal.

That performance, along with the fact that he plays primarily third base — a somewhat premium defensive position — landed Cuthbert at 74th on KATOH’s preseason top-100 list, placing him tops among Royals farmhands. That was before he opened this season by slashing .333/.402/.624 in 24 games. He was one of the very best hitters at Triple-A over the season’s first month, and was quite possibly the best prospect-age hitter in Triple-A.

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The Cubs decided to position Dexter Fowler a bit deeper in center field this season, and it might have saved a no-hitter. Anthony Gose, vocal critic of defensive metrics, also finds himself a bit further from home plate, likely due in part to those same metrics which Gose called a “scam.” Research done by Baseball Info Solutions’ owner and chairman John Dewan in 2013 suggested that, generally speaking, fielders who play shallow in center, like Fowler and Gose used to, don’t save enough runs on the balls hit in front of them to make up for the runs lost on balls hit over their heads. The arrival of Statcast has given fans and teams alike previously unprecedented access to information regarding fielder positioning, and the most visible team-mandated adjustments this season have been those which move outfielders closer to the fences in an effort to prevent costly extra base hits at the expense of a few more singles.

But the Pittsburgh Pirates are their own team with their own identity, and if we’ve learned anything about how the organization operates during the Neal Huntington era, it’s that they’re constantly searching for ways to use data to their advantage, and that they’re not afraid to pull the trigger on a radical change. And so while a deeper center field may seem en vogue, the Pirates are zigging while the Cubs, Tigers and others zag, and have instead instructed not only McCutchen, who played one of the five deepest center fields in baseball last year, to bring it in, but also the rest of the outfielders, too.

From a Travis Sawchik story last month, for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:

“In reviewing the numbers last year, there was so much collateral damage done in front of us, balls that fell in, extra bases that were taken by guys trying to get to balls,” Pirates manager Clint Hurdle said. “It was glaringly apparent that we could make an adjustment, especially with the athleticism of our outfielders and change the dynamic of what’s gone on as far as run prevention.”

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A quick check of the pitching leaderboards for qualified starters reveals an unsettling fact for the Red Sox: David Price has the second-worst ERA in baseball. Cue the alarm bells! The Sox paid for an ace, and instead, they’ve gotten the exact opposite of an ace — as far as outcomes are concerned, at least. Seven starts into the season, some element of worry has to be merited, right? The answer is yes, of course, because an ERA of almost seven for a No. 1 starter after over a month of games has to be worrying. Price has been terrible, and if you’re worrying about him or would like to, that’s probably merited. The reason why we’re here is to look into whether his performance thus far is grounds to for worry in the future, as well: though Price can’t get any of his clunkers back from the past seven starts, we can certainly look into whether those clunkers might presage future clunkers.

First, let’s start with the bad news, because it’s always better to end with good news. The bad news has been right there in front of us in every single one of Price’s starts this season, flashed up on a board in the stadium or on our TV screens during every pitch: his velocity is down. Way down. Lowest it’s ever been. That’s worrisome not only because velocity loss leads to a smaller margin of error, but also because velocity loss is the most visible indicator of injury. The drop captured in the red box in the chart below — depicting Price’s velocity by month from 2011 to 2016 — ought usually to inspire some concern (chart courtesy of Brooks Baseball):

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Brewers pitching prospect Jon Perrin issued his first free pass of the season on Friday night. Accompanying that solitary walk on his stat sheet are 47 strikeouts and a 2.50 ERA over 36 innings of work. Pitching for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, Perrin has essentially been the Midwest League equivalent of Greg Maddux in his prime.

His long-term goal isn’t necessarily to be the next Maddux. Nor is it to be the next Josh Tomlin, a more realistic control-and-command comparable. Perrin aspires to be an attorney.

The 22-year-old right-hander graduated from Oklahoma State before being drafted by Milwaukee last year in the 27th round. He took his LSAT over the winter, and if he gets an acceptance letter from his target school there’s a good chance he’ll bid baseball adieu. Read the rest of this entry »

Major League Baseball has taken steps toward becoming a truly global game in recent years. Cuban players have joined their Venezuelan, Dominican and other Latin American counterparts in making a significant impact on today’s game, and talent from the Far East, particularly from the Japanese and Korean Leagues, has made its presence felt as well.

This year’s most heralded Japanese rookie is Kenta Maeda, who signed a long-term deal with the Dodgers this past offseason. After concerns were raised following a medical examination, he signed a deal that was heavily discounted from the originally negotiated terms, paying him $25 million over an eight-year period. This put the Dodgers in a fantastic position: a low-risk, potentially high-reward scenario. One month in, the Dodgers simply have to be thrilled as Maeda’s posted a 3-1, 1.41 mark with a 28/6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 32 innings.

Sure, the season remains young, and the sample sizes are small, but it’s not too early to form some early hypotheses regarding whether Maeda is for real. Today, let’s use granular batted-ball data, examining his plate-appearance frequency and production by BIP type data, to see how Maeda is getting it done, and whether we can expect his success to continue moving forward. Read the rest of this entry »

In last night’s fifth inning, the Rockies threw punches and punches until the Giants were frontless. They scored 13 runs, which, as was noted at Purple Row, was a team record for runs scored in an inning. Oh, did I mention that this game was in San Francisco, and not in Denver? Because it was, which makes it all the more surprising. Let’s walk back through their blockbuster night, and use it to show what the Rockies are doing right this season.

First, let’s put this game into some context. Here are all the teams who have scored 15 or more runs in a game at AT&T Park, which as you probably know has been open since 2000.

15+ Runs Scored by Single Team, AT&T Park History

Date	Tm	Runs	Opp	Runs	Barry Bonds?
5/6/2016	COL	17	SFG	7	No
7/10/2015	SF	15	PHI	2	No
9/13/2014	LAD	17	SF	0	No
8/31/2014	SF	15	MIL	5	No
8/24/2010	SF	16	CIN	5	No
9/24/2008	COL	15	SF	6	No
7/23/2005	FLO	16	SF	4	No
9/3/2004	SF	18	ARI	7	Yes
4/9/2003	SF	15	SD	11	Yes
5/24/2000	SF	18	MON	0	Yes

SOURCE: Baseball-Reference Play Index

As you can see, this doesn’t happen very often — happens even less when Barry Bonds hasn’t been involved. For reference, over the same time span, a team has scored 15-plus runs at Fenway Park 37 times. Across the bay at whatever Oakland’s ballpark is called now, it’s happened 16 times. At Camden Yards, it’s happened 27 times. Runs are simply harder to come by in games affected by the marine layer.

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We’re here every year, it feels like. May rolls around, we notice that Brandon Belt has been doing new things in the early part of the season, and then we forget about it until the next season rolls around when we start all over again. Maybe it’s because he’s been the victim of a few impact injuries that have caused him to miss time in the second half of the past two seasons. Maybe it’s because he plays in the hardest park at which to hit home runs as a left-handed hitter for 81 games a year. Either way, it seems like Belt doesn’t really get his due. By all accounts, he should: by WAR, he was a top-five first baseman in 2013, and he was top-seven in 2015. Last season, he produced more offense by wRC+ than Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Abreu, or Eric Hosmer. What’s most impressive about Belt, however, is that he has always been evolving, and once again he’s showing some pretty significant adjustments so far this season.

We can trace a long line of Belt’s many evolutions. There was his breakout toward the end of 2012 and into 2013. There were his aggressive swing%/pull% adjustments in 2014. And finally, there was his plate coverage/opposite field power increase in 2015. Belt has obviously always been looking to improve on the craft of hitting, even if the overall results haven’t followed the perfect trajectory: removing an injury-marred 2014 that saw him play only 61 games, Belt has recorded wRC+ marks of 119, 140, and 135 in 2012, 2013, and 2015, respectively. Early adjustments brought him to a very high level, but subsequent ones haven’t quite vaulted him into the elite.

There’s not much that can compare to his wholesale improvements this year, however. I considered holding off on this article until the point at which we could get stabilization on a few more of his stats — ISO, in particular — but the changes are simply too glaring to ignore for another month or so. They’re exciting. We couldn’t wait. Let’s start with these few key offensive statistics:

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The Phillies are off to a really good start this season, sitting at 16-12 in what is expected to be a rebuilding season as the team finally separates itself from its former glory in a move to the future. The team has some exciting young pitchers already succeeding in the majors with Vincent Velasquez and Aaron Nola putting together some very good performances. Maikel Franco is a promising young hitter and J.P. Crawford should be ready to contribute at some point. To get to their record this season, the team has succeeded by limiting runs and winning close games. The starting pitching has led the way, but the bullpen has been key, as well. No pitcher has surprised more than Hector Neris, who has upped the use of his splitter and gotten fantastic results.

So far this season, Hector Neris has faced 63 batters and struck out 27 of them. If you look at the strikeout-rate leaderboard for relievers who’ve recorded least 10 innings, you find that Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, and Craig Kimbrel are the first three names to appear there, which isn’t surprising. Hector Neris is fourth, which is. The Phillies reliever struck out more than a batter an inning last year, but has taken that performance to new heights this season. Neris’ secret is out, as he has increased his splitter usage from 21% last season to 52% this year.

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Bryce Harper may have slumped recently, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t had a fantastic start to the season. He’s two homers shy of the league lead, and both the league leaders above him play half their games in Colorado. He simultaneously owns one of baseball’s best walk rates and one of baseball’s best isolated-slugging percentages. Bryce Harper is the man. Numbers weren’t necessary to make this point. All in all, Harper’s offensive performance to date has been worth nine runs above average.

Adam Eaton‘s been better. Not with the bat — Eaton’s just putting up his typical 117 wRC+ again. No, Eaton’s been better than Harper’s bat with his glove. Using Ultimate Zone Rating, our default defensive metric here on the site, Eaton’s glove has been worth a league-leading 9.6 runs above average. Use Defensive Runs Saved, where Eaton is running laps around the league with 12 runs saved, and it gets even better — Eaton’s defensive performance becomes equivalent to Mike Trout’s season at the plate.

So this funny thing is going on with Adam Eaton in right field — a position he’s playing on an everyday schedule for the first time, having moved over from center field to accommodate Austin Jackson — and, especially considering Eaton’s outfield defense has been something of an enigma in the past, this development is something that’s begging to be explored.

Adam Eaton’s made 10 noteworthy plays this season, which, combined with all the other routine ones, have already been worth 12 Defensive Runs Saved. That’s more than Josh Donaldson had all of last year. Eaton’s number might not (probably won’t?) stay that high all year, but it’s that high right now. Let’s watch Adam Eaton save 12 runs.
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For the last week or so, the Angels have been pretty vague about what’s going on with Garrett Richards. He missed a start due to “fatigue” and “dehydration”, but they hadn’t given any real indicators that his arm was bothering him. Apparently it was, however, as Jeff Passan dropped this bomb this morning.

Source: Angels ace Garrett Richards has torn ulnar collateral ligament and is expected to need Tommy John surgery. https://t.co/wkbiUpTCl0

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) May 6, 2016

This is a huge blow to the Angels, not only because Richards is really good, but because the Angels pitching staff without him is atrocious. Here’s what our current depth chart forecast for Anaheim’s starting rotation looks like, with Richards included.

#25 Angels

Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Garrett Richards	159.0	8.4	3.2	0.7	.298	72.7 %	3.39	3.41	2.8
Hector Santiago	140.0	8.1	3.5	1.1	.292	74.2 %	3.89	4.29	1.3
Jered Weaver	137.0	5.6	2.5	1.4	.288	70.0 %	4.54	4.84	0.5
Nicholas Tropeano	114.0	8.5	3.3	1.1	.303	71.6 %	4.09	4.03	1.1
Matt Shoemaker	84.0	7.6	2.3	1.2	.298	71.5 %	4.04	4.07	0.9
Andrew Heaney	62.0	7.5	2.6	1.0	.301	72.0 %	3.83	3.91	0.7
C.J. Wilson	40.0	7.6	3.7	0.9	.295	70.8 %	4.06	4.14	0.4
Tyler Skaggs	39.0	8.7	3.2	0.8	.294	73.7 %	3.42	3.60	0.6
Kyle Kendrick	16.0	5.3	2.3	1.2	.292	71.5 %	4.23	4.59	0.1
Total	790.0	7.6	3.0	1.1	.296	72.1 %	3.93	4.08	8.4

Hector Santiago is a FIP-beater, so he’s better than that projected WAR makes him look, but after him, it’s a dumpster fire. And in Passan’s story, he notes that Andrew Heaney may also need Tommy John surgery, so we might be crossing his ~60 innings off that list as well, if his rehab-to-avoid-surgery plan isn’t successful. And Tyler Skaggs just went for an MRI after getting scratched from a Triple-A start last week; the current diagnosis is biceps tendonitis, but it’s an arm problem for a guy with a history of arm problems.

At some point in the not too distant future, the Angels rotation could be Santiago-Weaver-Tropeano-Shoemaker-Kendrick, which wouldn’t be good enough to contend even if supported by the offense of the 1927 Yankees. And the 2016 Angels aren’t exactly an offensive behemoth.

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