Archive for Daily Graphings

Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 4/6/16

12:01
Dave Cameron: Hey all. I’m a bit under the weather at the moment — kids are disease factories — and I have to drive to the airport to fly to Toronto this afternoon, so we might not make it a full hour today. But I’ll do my best.

12:02
Gerald: Braves have stated they “don’t want to trade Ender Inciarte”…but will they trade him by 8/1?

12:02
Dave Cameron: Depends on how their first half goes. If they’re hanging around .500 and see a legitimate chance to contend next year with Swanson and/or Albies added to the roster, then no. If they’re playing .350 ball and see that 2017 is a likely rebuilding year too, maybe.

12:03
KI: Aaron Sanchez induced 16 whiffs yesterday, including 4 off his change up. Has this combined with a spring where he barely walked anyone changed your thoughts on him?

12:04
Dave Cameron: Certainly starts like this help. I’ll remain skeptical of the dramatic command improvement until he does it over a longer period of time, but if he strings together a few of these, the prognosis will definitely get a lot better.

12:04
primantis: Has Trevor Story’s performance in the first two games caused you to adjust your thoughts on his long term outlook, and if so how? Just two games, but the HRs were all no-doubters.

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Jose Bautista and the New Slide Rule

That didn’t take long. Just a few days into the season, we have a controversial play relating to the slide rule instituted this offseason. Last night, trailing 3-2 in the top of the ninth with the bases loaded and one out, Toronto Blue Jays batter Edwin Encarnacion hit a ground ball to Rays third baseman Evan Longoria. Longoria threw to second base to force out Jose Bautista, who had been running from first base. As second baseman Logan Forsythe attempted to throw the ball to first base for an inning-ending double play, Bautista’s arm caught Forsythe’s foot, Forsythe’s throw went awry, Encarnacion was safe, and two runs scored. Officials overturned the call, ruling that Bautista violated Rule 6.01 for interference and Encarnacion was declared out at first, ending the game in favor of Tampa Bay.

Those are the basic facts of what happened last night, and while the interpretation of the rule might be subject to criticism, there can be little dispute about what happened. There is also likely little dispute about the impetus of the new rule — player safety — and that last night’s play had little to do with player safety. That leads to a couple questions. Like, was the rule interpreted correctly? And like, should the slide rule cover plays like Bautista’s when little harm is likely to come on the play?

Before we take a look at the play, let’s consider the precise language of the new rule itself. Rule 6.01(j) is the relevant one here, titled “Sliding to Bases on Double Play Attempts”. So what does the runner have to do?

If a runner does not engage in a bona fide slide, and initiates (or attempts to make) contact with the fielder for the purpose of breaking up a double play, he should be called for interference under this Rule 6.01.

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Carlos Rodon Is Going to Break Out, or Already Has

It’s anecdotal of course, of little value maybe, but when you’re talking to Carlos Rodon these days, you get a different feeling than you might have last year. He’s more… comfortable. He’s not a rookie anymore. “Knowing you belong” is really important, as he put it to me.

But the reason he knows he belongs now is that he had a great second half last year. He agreed that went a long way to calming the nerves. But anyone can have a great half without a major adjustment, only to see things change once again at the whim of the baseball gods.

The good news is that Rodon made two huge adjustments last year that coincided with the start of his run. That suggests it wasn’t luck. That suggests that Rodon has found something that can help him walk fewer batters. And that’s about all that stands between Rodon and a breakout season.

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Garrett Richards Changeup Watch

The Angels lost to the Cubs 9-0 on Monday. Garrett Richards didn’t allow all of those runs, but he did allow more than zero runs, so he took the loss. He needed 97 pitches to go five innings, and he allowed six hits and three walks, so it’s not like Richards just had the game of his life. If I were most people, I’d probably take this opportunity to write some happy words about Jake Arrieta. But I’m not most people, and I’m particularly enthusiastic about Richards’ changeup. Yesterday kicked off the slate of games that matter, and Richards threw nine changeups. Why is that important? Last season, Richards threw one changeup. The season before, he threw all of 15. This is a legitimate thing, now. Richards is going to try to throw changeups. Now we’re going to watch all of Monday’s.

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The Best News for the Orioles Out of Opening Day

The Orioles had to wait through a rainless rain delay, and then later through a more rainful rain delay, but in the end, they did walk off to victory over the Twins, on a Matt Wieters RBI single. Ordinarily you’d think the win was the most important thing. Every individual win matters — the Orioles’ playoff odds have now gone up — so it’s nice to have that to celebrate after a day that simply dragged on. It was a well-earned win, following a game that in no way went according to plan.

Yet for my taste, it’s not the win that’s most encouraging. One win is the result of one game. There was a positive sign in there that could mean something over another 30-odd games. There are questions everywhere in the Orioles’ rotation, and their Monday starter faced just six batters before rain forced him out, but Chris Tillman showed something before his appearance was over. He whiffed five of the six batters, but even more importantly, there’s significance in what he was pitching.

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Here’s All the Weird Baseball Things That Happened Already

Moments before the season’s first pitch, ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian giddily exclaimed something to the effect of, “Baseball season is about to start, and we have no idea what’s going to happen!” Kurkjian, 59, said this with a sense of childlike wonder. The kind of wonder that can only come from experiencing something for the first time, or the anticipation of a first-time experience. The kind of wonder that baseball renews annually.

Well, all the teams — with the exception of Detroit and Miami — have now either played a game or at least had a game postponed, and baseball hasn’t disappointed. Baseball never disappoints. We’ve missed this for so long, and now it’s back, so let’s celebrate it. Let’s take in all the weird baseball things that have already happened this season, just two days in. Something weird and fun has happened in every game! This is a post all about fun facts. Fun facts are great. And fun.

Pirates vs. Cardinals

We’ll begin with this one not only because it was the first game, but because I’ve already written this fun fact here. Francisco Liriano made the start for the Pirates, and his final pitching line was six innings, three hits, no runs, five walks, and 10 strikeouts. No pitcher since at least 1913 (and, presumably, before then, too, since pitchers didn’t strike out 10 batters in a game then) has ever finished a game with that pitching line. The first pitching line of the season was one that’s never happened before.

Blue Jays vs. Rays

These two clubs are the only teams to have played two games this season, and in that second game, Josh Thole hit a home run. Josh Thole’s only job in major-league baseball is to catch R.A. Dickey’s knuckleball. When he hits a home run, it happens on accident. We he does anything else besides catch a knuckleball, it happens on accident. Josh Thole hadn’t homered in almost three years. The last game in which Josh Thole hit a home run, Mariano Rivera got the save. A Josh Thole home run isn’t quite a Ben Revere home run, but it is a Josh Thole home run.
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Scooter Gennett on Hitting (But Not Pitchers’ Pitches)

Late last summer, Scooter Gennett talked about how improving his plate discipline would make him a more productive hitter. He echoed those words when I spoke to him a few weeks ago. The 25-year-old Brewers second baseman feels better selectivity will result in a higher one-base percentage and, hopefully, more extra-base hits.

Yesterday, Gennett went 2 for 3 with a home run — off Madison Bumgarner, no less — and a walk in Milwaukee’s opener. It was only one game, but it was a nice start and a step in the right direction. The left-handed hitter has a .287 batting average in three MLB seasons, but his .318 OBP and 4.0% walk rate are poor, while his .424 SLG is pedestrian. His track record against same-sided pitchers has left a lot to be desired, making Monday’s blast even more notable.

———

Gennett on his all-fields approach: “Basically, I hit the ball where it’s pitched. On a pitch right down the middle, ideally I hit it straight up the middle. If it’s outside corner, I should hit it from the left fielder to the line. Middle away, left center-field gap. Middle in, right center. Inside corner, right-field line. That’s my approach.

“Normally, if I don’t hit the ball where it’s pitched, it’s because of the speed of the pitch. Your timing isn’t going to be perfect every time. If you’re late, you don’t want your normal swing. You got jammed and your bat will break. If I’m late on a pitch that’s middle in, I’ll try to keep my hands inside the ball and maybe punch it to the left side.”

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What We Can Learn from the First Game of the Season

A hundred and fifty-four days. That’s how long we’ve been wandering in the wilderness. That’s a long time, and especially so when you remember that the wilderness isn’t acres and acres of trees but basketball and hockey. But now we have found civilization because baseball has returned and we are all happy and excited at the prospect of a new season. The dawn of a new season always brings with it questions. Who will be the best team? Who will be the best player? Who will win in the playoffs? What unlikely events will occur? We don’t know, which is why this is so fun. If you could flip to the back of the book and find the answer, you know you would, and but then, when June and July came around, you’d be forced to find something else to do with your life. It’s like that book that lists all the World Series winners from Back to the Future. Screw that book.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t take guess on how things will go. You know we love to take guesses and you love it when we take guesses. In fact, listen to any sports radio now or read any baseball article on the internet and you’ll find guesses as to what will happen this season. Because people love guesses! Some will be grounded in numerics and hard data; others will be pulled, to put it politely, from the darkest of regions. But all are, at their core, guesses. So let’s do some more guessing.

The first baseball game of the season just took place on Sunday. It featured the Pittsburgh Pirates hosting the St. Louis Cardinals. What can that game teach us about the season that is to come here?

Even More Strikeouts

Strikeouts are going up. We know this. We’ve seen graphs and pie charts and other representational forms of data showing how more and more batters are striking out. What’s more, as was pointed out by Steve Treder at The Hardball Times, this isn’t anything new. What is new is the heights to which strikeouts have ascended. Last season, there were over 15 strikeouts per game played (an average of 7.76 per team times two). That means 28% of the total outs in games during the 2015 season came by strikeout. That’s a lot.

Much has been written about this trend, what to do about it, or if it’s even a problem. Perhaps it’ll eventually even out? Not if the first game of the season had anything to say about it. The Pirates struck out just five times against Cardinal pitching including Adam Wainwright, but the Cardinals made up for it by striking out 15 times against Pirate pitching. That’s a total of 19 strikeouts. Divide that by the 51 outs in the game (the Pirates were leading at home so they didn’t bat in the ninth inning) and we can see that 37% of the outs made in the game came on strikeouts. Of course, one game doesn’t dictate an entire season and the strikeout rate in baseball has taken a dip at times over the decades. But strikeouts. Yeesh.

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A Brief History of Opening Day/Early-Season Error Rates

Meaningful baseball! The world is right again. Full stadiums, actual numbers in the win-loss columns, Curt Schilling in the booth, all of it. Except, as we saw yesterday in our three games during “Soft Opening Day,” the first few games of the season can feel a bit like an extension of spring training — at least performance-wise. Sure, there was Chris Archer and Marcus Stroman dueling in Tampa (even though Archer might not have had the trademark control of his slider at times), and the Royals doing many Royals things, but there were also things like this, in the first game of the day:

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Pirates Bet on Gregory Polanco with Contract Extension

If you made it to Opening Day and wondered why there hadn’t been a greater number of contract extensions signed this spring, you weren’t alone. Just a few days ago, Dave Cameron wondered that very thing, noting that Kolten Wong was the only player to sign an extension, opting for the promise of guaranteed money rather than betting on the arbitration process and hitting free agency. Over the weekend the number of recent extensions doubled, or increased by one, as Gregory Polanco and the Pirates came to terms on a contract extension worth $35 million over five years — with two team options for another $25 million total — according to Ken Rosenthal after Jeff Passan first reported the deal. Polanco only has one year of service time, and with the extension not kicking in until next year so this contract has the potential to buy out three free-agent seasons, but given Polanco’s lack of production thus far, the team is making a bet that Polanco will be better than what he has shown.

The past few springs have seen quite a few contract extensions, and this year is certainly a down year in that regard. Here are position-player extensions from the past few years, including Polanco and Wong. The statistics included here are those produced during the player’s last season prior to the extension.

Pre-Arbitration Position Player Contract Extensions
Name Team OBP SLG wRC+ WAR Contract (Year/$M) Service Time
Mike Trout Angels .432 .557 176 10.5 6/144.5 2.070
Matt Carpenter Cardinals .392 .481 146 6.9 6/52.0 2.012
Andrelton Simmons Braves .296 .396 91 4.6 7/58.0 1.125
Starling Marte Pirates .343 .441 122 4.6 6/31.0 1.070
Jason Kipnis Indians .366 .452 129 4.4 6/52.5 2.075
Christian Yelich Marlins .362 .402 117 4.4 7/49.6 1.069
Juan Lagares Mets .321 .382 101 4.0 4/23.0 1.160
Yan Gomes Indians .345 .481 130 3.6 6/23.0 1.083
Adam Eaton White Sox .362 .401 117 3.0 5/23.5 2.030
Paul Goldschmidt Diamondback .359 .490 124 2.9 5/32.0 1.059
Allen Craig Cardinals .354 .522 137 2.7 5/31.0 2.077
Jedd Gyorko Padres .301 .444 111 2.5 5/35.0 1.016
Kolten Wong Cardinals .321 .386 96 2.3 5/25.5 2.042
Gregory Polanco Pirates .320 .381 94 2.3 5/35.0 1.103
Anthony Rizzo Cubs .342 .463 117 1.8 7/41.0 1.040
Blue=2016 extension, Orange=2015 extension

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