Suppose the amount of human knowledge in the universe is finite. And suppose we happen to have reached the limit; we have acquired as much as we can. And suppose further that this applies to baseball, as well. What if we have learned as much as we can about pitching, for example, and there is no more knowledge we can gain, try as we might? It’s a silly supposition, of course: there’s lots more to study and learn and there always will be until we crash into the sun. But I present this thought experiment to you because it’s as close to a real explanation for Rich Hill’s recent dominance as I can get.

There’s a very real chance you have no idea what or who I’m talking about at this point, so please, let me back up. Rich Hill the pitcher is who, and his two starts wherein he’s recorded 20 total strikeouts, a single walk, and given up all of three runs in 14 innings is what. The what is brought up because it’s odd. How odd? There have been 97 games this year in which a starting pitcher went at least seven innings with at least 10 strikeouts and walked at most one batter. There have been 2,235 games played this season, so 97 represents just 4% of the total games. The fact that Hill did it once is interesting. The fact that he did it twice is just bizarre.

Read the rest of this entry »

“I don’t care about hitting home runs, I don’t care about any of that sort of stuff,” Joey Votto told me when I mentioned the stat. “I care about improving all of the facets of my game that can be repeatable and that age well.” And really, as great as his season has been this year, no quote better sums up the strides he’s made.

One things we know that ages terribly is contact on pitches outside of the zone (O-Contact%). It drops off the table quickly after 29.

Read the rest of this entry »

Do you remember last offseason? Last offseason, it seemed like Major League Baseball had two primary goals. One, it wanted to make the game move faster. And two, it wanted to do something about the ongoing drop in run-scoring. They didn’t really have a plan in mind, but they said it was a thing they were going to monitor. Last September, runs scored per nine innings dropped below 4 for the first time this millennium. And last year, also for the first time this millennium, there was a month with a league-wide OPS below .700. Actually, there were three of those months, in just a four-month span. Offense was going down; everyone was aware. Baseball needs a certain minimum level of offense to survive.

There’s your setup. This year, to some extent, baseball has succeeded in trimming unnecessary delays. The game does go faster, even if it’ll never go fast. And then there’s the matter of run-scoring. Here’s one plot, of year-to-year R/9 averages:

Hey, look, a little rebound. Relative to last year, this year is up 0.21 runs per nine, getting back closer to 2012 levels. That’s interesting on its own. But this gets more interesting the closer you look.

Read the rest of this entry »

The crux of my duties here at FanGraphs is to project prospects who happen to be in the news. In most cases, this involves writing about highly touted minor league players as they’re called up to the big leagues for the first time. There’s certainly been no shortage of players from that phylum in 2015. This year has often been labeled the “The Year of the Prospect,” and rightly so. From Kris Bryant to Carlos Correa to Noah Syndergaard to Lance McCullers, we’ve experienced a historic wave of young talent matriculating to the big leagues. Top prospects often turn into productive big leaguers, so nobody would be surprised if several of this year’s crop of rookies went on to be perennial All-Stars.

But not all impact major leaguers come out of this mold. As Jeff Sullivan uncovered this past February, about one-third of the players who produce three wins in any given season never even cracked a Baseball America’s Top 100 list. The purpose of this post is to analyze, or at least call attention to, a few rookie hitters on contending teams who weren’t ballyhooed as prospects, but have still acquitted themselves well in the big leagues. The four hitters below came to the big leagues with little fanfare, but have already made an impact on the division races this year, and more importantly, stand a good chance of remaining productive.

*****
Randal Grichuk, OF, St. Louis

Although he was a first round pick, Randal Grichuk underwhelmed throughout his minor league career. His 113 wRC+ as a minor leaguer was more good than great, especially for a future corner outfielder. And up until this season, he was best known as the guy the Angels selected before Mike Trout. Grichuk’s put together an excellent performance for the Cardinals this year, however, belting 16 home runs in 92 games on his way to a 142 wRC+. Grichuk’s had some trouble making contact, but has made up for it by being extremely productive in those plate appearances that haven’t resulted in a strikeout.

Grichuk didn’t crack any top-100 lists heading into the year, but KATOH still thought he was an interesting prospect based on his minor league numbers. Although his overall .259/.311/.493 batting line was nothing special, especially for the Pacific Coast League, KATOH was still impressed by the power he demonstrated as a 22-year-old in Triple-A. My system projected him for 4.4 WAR through age 28, making him the 81st highest-ranked prospect. It’s no secret the Cardinals have a good team this year, and Grichuk has been a big part of that success. The one obstacle for the 23-year-old is an elbow injury, which has limited him to pinch-hitting duties of late. If healthy, though, Grichuk’s pop should continue to power the Cardinals lineup this October, even if his batting average comes back to earth a bit.

Read the rest of this entry »

Hello. There is still regular-season baseball taking place, even literally right now, but I am an impatient person. So, here’s a post about the year in projections, even though the year isn’t finished. The year is basically finished, and that’s good enough for me. We could re-visit in a month, but I don’t know if I’ll see the point.

You know, at least anecdotally, that it hasn’t been the best year for team projections. We had the Rangers projected as one of the worst teams in baseball, and they’re currently leading their division. We had the Twins projected as one of the worst teams in baseball, and they’re still alive in the wild-card race. We had the Royals projected as just about a .500 team, and they’ve got the best record in the American League. Then there are the Mariners, and the Red Sox, and so on and so forth. It seems like it hasn’t been a banner season for the numbers.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Milwaukee Brewers have reportedly hired David Stearns to be their new general manager. What that means for Craig Counsell is yet to be determined. The 45-year-old Counsell has been the club’s manager since May, and his contract extends through the 2017 season.

On the surface, Counsell and the Harvard-educated Stearns look to be a good fit. Counsell was an accounting major at Notre Dame prior to playing 15 big league seasons, and he spent three years as a special assistant to former GM Doug Melvin before moving into his current position.

Counsell talked about his decision-making process, and the collaborative relationship between a manager and the front office, when the Brewers visited Wrigley Field last month. Read the rest of this entry »

Last year Clayton Kershaw had an absolutely dominating season, which culminated in him winning both the NL Cy Young and MVP awards. When the playoffs started, I remember feeling a little bad for the Cardinals, who were facing the possibility of having to face Kershaw twice within the five-game NLDS. Of course, the Cardinals defied the odds by defeating Kershaw twice en route to winning the series, showing that anything is possible in a short series. I wonder, though, if they couldn’t have improved their odds of winning the series had they matched up their starters a bit differently.

In a five-game Division Series, most managers start their ace in Game 1, assuming that he is available to pitch on regular rest. That will optimize a club’s chances of winning Game 1. However, I’ve wondered if that does not necessarily optimize that same club’s chances of winning the series. Would a team be able to, under some circumstances, optimize its chances of winning the series by using their #2 starter in Game 1, and starting the ace in Game 2?

Read the rest of this entry »

Mark Melancon has 47 saves this season – a franchise record – and 96 since coming to Pittsburgh three years ago. In 214 games with the Pirates, he has a 1.75 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP.

Those numbers must seem unfathomable to Red Sox fans. In 2012, Melancon came out of the Boston bullpen 41 times and put up an ugly 6.20 ERA. Torched in high-leverage situations early on, he subsequently took up residence in then-manager Bobby Valentine’s doghouse. He rarely pitched with a lead and logged just one save.

That winter, Melancon was sent to Pittsburgh in the six-player deal that brought Brock Holt to Boston.

Earlier this week, I asked the 30-year-old right-hander what has changed since his disastrous stint in Beantown. Read the rest of this entry »

Injuries are an unfortunate part of most physical activities, and Major League Baseball is no exception. Players tear hamstrings running, their ACLs changing directions, and hurt their shoulders and elbows throwing. To the extent possible, those involved in the game do their very best to prevent injuries. Trainers and teams go to great lengths to strengthen and stretch out players so as many injuries as possible can be prevented. Innings and pitches are monitored to try to keep pitchers healthy.

Often, we might feel like throwing our arms up in the air and declare that prevention is impossible, but teams generally try to keep their players healthy. Whether the incentive is to achieve a greater moral good or keep valuable employees productive is debatable, but whenever an injury occurs that might be prevented, it draws attention. The attention does not focus entirely on the actual injury suffered, but whether it is possible to prevent similar future injuries. Chris Coghlan’s slide on a double play — a slide which resulted in a season-ending injury to Jung-ho Kang — is an example of the type of play and injury that spurs debate.

Read the rest of this entry »

Over the last calendar year, Houston righty Josh Fields has been a top-30 reliever. That may not be the type of lede that grabs you by your collar and shakes a click out of you, but the “how” might intrigue you. Because Fields has changed one thing — a new pitch has helped — but it’s something that he changed mentally that really made the difference. And his faith had everything to do with that change.

Read the rest of this entry »