Archive for Daily Graphings

Jose Bautista’s Counter-Shift

One of the remaining great unknowns is finding a reasonable way to evaluate the performances of coaches. With managers, we have only so much of the picture. It’s the same with hitting coaches and pitching coaches, and while sometimes we can credit a pitching coach for helping a guy learn a new pitch or smooth out his mechanics, hitting coaches are even more of a mystery. It would appear that teams haven’t even figured out who is and isn’t a worthwhile hitting coach, yet while their overall value isn’t known, one thing we can do is focus on individual cases. A team’s hitting coach won’t have the same effect on every hitter. In Toronto, one hitting coach has had a significant effect on one hitter.

Before the year, the Blue Jays added Kevin Seitzer, and one of Seitzer’s messages was stressing the importance of using the whole field. Seitzer came into a situation featuring Jose Bautista, who blossomed into a star by becoming an extreme pull power hitter. This season, Bautista has performed at a level well above what he did the previous two seasons. He’s back to what he was at his peak, yet he’s gotten there by following a different sort of path.

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A.J. Pollock, Better Than You Think, Now Gone

Who’s the best all-around center fielder in baseball? Well, that’s easy. It’s Mike Trout. I could give you a bunch of stats to illustrate that, but I won’t. It’s Mike Trout. Discussion over, at least on that point. Second-best? You can make a case for Carlos Gomez. You can also make a case for Andrew McCutchen. There’s not really a wrong answer there between the two. One gives you a bit more defense, one a bit more offense. No matter which one is No. 2 or No. 3, it’s safe to say that they’re the only two names there.

But after that, it gets a little more questionable. If this was two years ago, maybe Austin Jackson is in that conversation, but he’s well into his second consecutive year of decline from a great 2012, to the point that’s he’s playing like a replacement player right now. Colby Rasmus has his supporters, and he’s also got a .266 OBP. Lots of people like Adam Jones, and it’s hard to argue with the 55 homers he hit over 2012-13. He’s also been a below-average hitter in 2014. Jacoby Ellsbury probably belongs in the discussion, but his 98 wRC+ isn’t doing him any favors. Maybe you like Coco Crisp, although his once-stellar defense has collapsed in recent years.

I guess the point here is this: how many total names would you have to go through — Desmond Jennings, Lorenzo Cain, Denard Span, Juan Lagares, etc. — before you got to Arizona’s A.J. Pollock, who broke his hand over the weekend when Johnny Cueto hit him with a pitch? A dozen? More? And yet, Pollock is one of just five true center fielders worth six WAR since the start of 2013. (I’m discounting Shin-Soo Choo here, who isn’t a center fielder now and was merely trying to impersonate one last year.) If you prefer “over the last calendar year,” he’s still No. 5, behind the big three and Ellsbury. With 2.5 WAR through 50 games this year, he was on pace for 6 WAR in 2014 alone, and had been behind only Trout and Gomez before getting hurt. Read the rest of this entry »


The Road to the Draft

This week, one of the key events on the baseball calendar takes place: the annual Rule 4 draft. Yup, that’s what it’s technically called, but it’s better known as the amateur draft, with 1,200 high school, college and junior college players hearing their names called over the three days of proceedings. Unlike the football and basketball drafts, the baseball version takes place a bit under the radar, with all but the most hardcore fans unfamiliar with the vast majority of the draftable players.

This is understandable, as all but the rarest of exceptions among players are not seen at the major league level for a while, unlike the instant gratification of the football and basketball drafts. This isn’t to say that the events of later this week aren’t vital to the short, intermediate and long-term future of all 30 clubs. On the contrary; the draft remains the cheapest way to turn a club around, though it does take time. There is a lot of player-specific draft content around this week, so let’s take a different tack and look at the process, the people involved – the who’s, what’s and where’s surrounding the baseball draft. Read the rest of this entry »


Jon Lester’s Favorite Teammate

Among starting pitchers with at least 40 innings, here are the biggest increases and increasers in strikeout rate since 2013, by percentage points:

The Red Sox are playing well again, which means we get to write positive things about them. Among the most positive things has beenJon Lester, who’s taken a step forward after having taken a step back. Lester, for a couple years, posted ace-like numbers. The following three years he lost a lot of strikeouts, but now he’s back to the old level and then some, carrying what’s otherwise been an inconsistent starting unit. For Lester, it’s a good strategy in what remains a contract year — play better baseball. After all, better baseball means better baseball money.

An increase like Lester’s causes one to dig around for potential explanations. It’s not that he’s really throwing harder. It’s not like he’s dramatically changed his pitch mix. It’s not a matter of getting ahead more. Between 2011 and 2013, 29% of Lester’s pitches thrown were with two strikes. This year, he’s at 30%. But over those three years, under 18% of those two-strike pitches turned into strikeouts. This year, he’s at 24%. That’s a change, and it might lead you somewhere else.

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How it all Starts: Alex Wood and Kevin Pillar, the Draft and the First Year

Kevin Pillar and Alex Wood had different draft experiences. Pillar, an outfielder for the Toronto Blue Jays, was a 32nd-round pick in 2011. His signing bonus was $1,000. Wood, a pitcher for the Atlanta Braves, was a 2nd-round pick in 2012. His bonus was $700,000.

They also shared something in common. Both thought they would be taken much earlier than they were.

“I was expecting to go somewhere between the 12th and 20th round,” said Pillar, who was drafted out of Division-II California State University. “I put on pretty good showing at some pre-draft workouts and area scouts told me I could expect to be drafted in that range. I was with my parents and some friends listening to the draft, and it ended up being a long, somewhat miserable day.”

“I’d be lying if I said I didn’t think I should go in the first round,” said Wood, who was selected out of the University of Georgia. “I’m a pretty realistic person and felt I had a legitimate shot at going that high, but draft day came around and I didn’t get any calls until after the first round ended. I thought I was probably one of the three best lefties, but I guess my mechanics scared some teams off.”

Wood was more highly regarded than Pillar, and he had another advantage when it came to bonus negotiations. Read the rest of this entry »


Jon Singleton’s Understandable Leap

For the Astros, Jon Singleton can be bad, and better than what the team has been running out there. To date, Astros first basemen have combined to be worth -1.0 WAR, worst in baseball by most of a win. No, the same players don’t project to be that bad going forward, but they certainly don’t project well, and Singleton’s promotion has been a while coming. The platoon that’s played was always intended to be a placeholder, and the place no longer needs to be held.

Yet the Astros don’t just hope for Singleton to be tolerably mediocre. He’s one of their top prospects, maybe a tier below George Springer, and he’s 22 years old until September. Most significantly, Singleton has had a huge campaign in Triple-A after struggling through a difficult and sometimes miserable 2013. Singleton’s made a leap forward, and this one is seemingly pretty easy to explain. That also makes it easy to buy into.

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Getting Ready for the 2014 Amateur Draft

Major League Baseball will hold it’s Rule 4 amateur draft on this week, with the main action on Thursday, June 5. MLB Network and MLB.com will broadcast and stream, respectively, pick-by-pick coverage of the first four rounds: Round One, Competitive Balance Round A, Round Two, and Competitive Balance Round B. In essence, the top 74 spots. The draft will continue untelevised on Friday and Saturday.

This is the second year for the new draft rules that were implemented as part of the collective bargaining agreement inked at the end of 2011. Before last’s year’s draft, I wrote a two-parter on the new rules. Part I (here) discussed the changes to the free-agent compensation system and the competitive balance draft picks. Note that the qualifying offer price after the 2013 season was $14.1 million. Part 2 (here) explained the new draft slot values (the amount a team can spend on each particular draft pick, with the most money going to the number one pick) and the new draft bonus pools (the total amount each team can spend in the Rule 4 draft). If you’re unfamiliar with the new rules, or just need a refresher, take a look at last year’s posts before reading on.

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FG on Fox: Austin Jackson’s Comfort Zone

Sometimes, you can just do everything right and the results aren’t coming,” Tigers outfielder Austin Jackson said before a late-May game against the Athletics. And if you look at what Jackson is doing at the plate, he’s right.

Big changes in parts of his process all seem positive, but the results aren’t quite there yet. Could good times be around the corner?

The most stark change Jackson is demonstrating comes when we look at the numbers that evaluate his swing decisions. At FanGraphs, we track how often a player reaches at pitches outside the zone (O-Swing%) and inside the zone (Z-Swing%). Jackson has incrementally improved this skill with every year in the bigs, but this year he has taken a large step forward. His contact rate has enjoyed it:

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Jose Bautista and the 9-3 Putout

To begin:

infante1

Wow. That’s a pretty boring GIF, huh? J.A. Happ threw that pitch and Omar Infante fouled it off. Nothing to see here.

Unless, that is, you already know what happened in this at bat. The Omar Infante in this GIF doesn’t know it quite yet, but something terrible is about to happen to him.
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Sunday Notes: Otero, Fredi, A New Manny, Leskanic’s Last Hurrah, Sox-Rays, Joba

Dan Otero is excelling out of the bullpen for the Oakland Athletics. The 29-year-old righthander has a 1.90 ERA in 56 games since hopping across the bay prior to last season. It was a hop with a twist, and the second time he changed venues in a roundabout way.

Otero is a graduate of Duke University, but the San Francisco Giants took him in the 21st round of the 2007 draft out of the University of South Florida.

“My transfer was basically about baseball,” explained Otero. “I had a disagreement with the coach and decided to take my senior year elsewhere. I went to Duke in the fall and got my degree – I was able to graduate in three and a half years – then played [at South Florida] in the spring. I was the Friday night starter at Duke and did well there – I loved it – but needed a change of scenery.”

The Miami native saw his role change when he got to pro ball.

“When I started out in short-season, I had no idea what plans they had for me,” said Otero. “I was just happy to get a chance. My first game, I was thrown into the ninth inning in a closer-type situation. After that I was used as a closer in the minor leagues.”

Otero saved 72 games in his first three seasons on the farm. He did so as a fastball-slider pitcher, setting aside the curveball and changeup he used as a starter. The latter two are back in his arsenal now that he’s a big-leaguer.

More than his repertoire has changed. According to the philosophical righty, so has the talent level – sort of.

“There’s a huge difference between the big leagues and the minor leagues, yet it’s only a very small difference,” mused Otero. “The hitters are just a little better, but that makes them much better. Consistency is the biggest aspect of that. In the minor leagues, you can get away with a mistake more often. If you miss your pitch up here, more than likely they’re going to hurt it. The hitters are good and the scouting reports are very good. They know us as well as we know them.”

Fourteen months ago, Otero wasn’t sure what was going on. How he went from San Francisco to Oakland is an interesting story.

“I was designated for assignment by the Giants at the end of spring training last year,” explained Otero. “I was then claimed by the Yankees but never actually got there. It was basically a paper move. I was claimed, then DFA’d while I was on my flight to Tampa. I got off the plane to voice mails and texts telling me that. All of a sudden it was, ‘What do I do now?’ I waited there a few days, until the waiver period ended, then Oakland claimed me and I flew back to the Bay Area. The Yankees never did communicate to me what happened.”

Otero, whose father was born in Cuba, is bilingual. That has proven to be both a blessing and a curse in pro ball.

“In the low minors there were always five or six Latin guys and I was used as a translator,” said Otero. “I also drove them around, helped them find apartments, took them to the grocery store. If they had a question about what the coach was saying, they’d come to me.

“The most uncomfortable position I was ever put in was getting called into the manager’s office to translate for a pitcher who was getting reamed out. Another time I had to tell someone he was being fined for not having his hair cut properly.”

While at Duke, the self-professed baseball history buff wrote a 24-page independent studies thesis on minorities in baseball.

“I needed a credit and the Dean of the history department said to pitch him an idea,” said Otero. “I wrote about how the Dodgers and the O’Malley family were basically at the forefront of the integration aspects of baseball. That’s from Jackie Robinson, to building a camp in the Dominican Republic, to bringing in Hideo Nomo from Japan. They also had the Mexican influence of Fernando Valenzuela. Another thing I looked at was the percentage of black players now compared to in the 1950s and 1960s.”

What era would he most like to have played in?

“I’d have like to have played in the 1910s and 1920s, in the days of Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth,” said Otero. “Back then it was for the love of the game. You ate hot dogs, drank beer and played baseball.”

——

Fredi Gonzalez is one of an increasing number of bilingual managers. The Atlanta Braves skipper once helped translate for Spanish-speaking players as a coach under Bobby Cox. At the helm, he can handle everything on his own.

Four years ago, while managing the Marlins, Gonzalez handled a disciplinary issue with Hanley Ramirez in their native language.

“With Hanley it was a performance issue – a lack of performance issue – and I took him out of the game,” explained Gonzalez. “I talked to him in Spanish. His English was pretty good by then, but it was still his second language. It’s easier to speak to someone in their native tongue. That way none of the message can get lost in translation.”

Gonzalez speaks a third language, one that is foreign to the vast majority of his players – sabermetrics.

“I’ve never had a conversation with a player about advanced stats,” said Gonzalez. “I’ve never gone into WAR or even OPS. I usually stick with things like left-right splits. We’ll talk about shifting – we’ll tell them our reports say we should shift David Ortiz – but they never ask what someone’s ground-ball percentages are. They don’t ask for reasons, they just trust us.”

Players can trust Gonzalez to tell them the truth, but they also need to keep their tongue-in-cheek detectors sharp. Evan Gattis found that out firsthand last spring.

“We called him into the office,” said Gonzalez. “All of the coaches were there, as well as our general manager. Gattis is looking around and wondering ‘What’s going on?’ I asked him, ‘Where were you last night?’ He said, ‘I was in my room.’ I said, ‘We have a police report saying you weren’t in the room. Where were you?’ He said, ‘I was in my room, I promise you I was in my room.’ I said, ‘Just kidding. We wanted to tell you that you made the club.’ Sometimes players kind of tear up a little bit when they hear that. It’s a fun part of my job.”

——

There are tongue-in-cheek detectors and there are bullshit detectors. Many of the latter started flashing this past week when Manny Ramirez visited Fenway Park and proclaimed himself a new Manny. The former slugger – and newly-named Cubs minor-league player-coach – told reporters he’s found religion. He apologized for past transgressions and said his life will now be spent spreading of the word of God.

Tabloids and talk radio reacted with doubt and derision. That came as no surprise, as Boston fans are often as cynical as they are passionate. No judgment will be passed here – I feel everyone deserves a chance to put their house in order – but the skepticism is easy to understand. Ramirez was asked why he should be taken at his word:

“I could say whatever I want,” responded Ramirez. “I could say that I could read the Bible. I could say that I’m going to preach. But if I don’t live it, I’d be a hypocrite. You have to live it. A lot of people are going to say whatever they want to say, but I only worry about what God says. How am I going to work and how am I going to talk? How am I going to treat my wife? You could tell me, ‘Oh no, Manny do this, do that.’ But maybe you, outside, maybe you drink, maybe you use drugs, and that’s the same. That’s the way I look at it.”

Ramirez, who has 555 home runs and 66.7 WAR, was asked if he believes he’ll one day be elected to the Hall of Fame.

“I’m leaving that decision to God,” said Ramirez. “If it happens I’m happy, but where I want to be is in the book of life. The Bible says you have focus on the things you cannot see. The things you see right now – everything is going to pass. So why am I going to worry about that?”

——

Manny Ramirez was the MVP of the 2004 World Series. In order for that to be possible, the Red Sox had to rally from three games down to beat the Yankees in the ALCS. They did so behind the heroics of David Ortiz, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe and Dave Roberts.

Mostly forgotten is that Curt Leskanic helped save the season.

In Game 4 of the ALCS, Leskanic entered in the 11th inning of a tie game with two out and the bases loaded. He retired Bernie Williams on a fly ball, then pitched a scoreless 12th inning. He was credited with the win when Ortiz homered in the bottom half. It was the final appearance of his career.

Leskanic was a workhorse reliever for 11 big-league seasons. Pitching primarily for the Rockies and the Brewers, he saw action in 603 games. By the time he took the mound in the early-morning hours of October 18, 2004 his arm was toast. The Red Sox were one bad pitch away from yet another devastating defeat and he had to get outs on guts and guile.

“I was simply hurt,” said Leskanic. “When I was on top of my game, I was anywhere from the mid- to high-90s. In Boston, I was down to 92-93. If were to draw up a scenario where I was pitching in a crucial game like that, it would have been with my A stuff. It wouldn’t have been needing cortisone shot after cortisone shot just to be able to go out there and pitch. I knew I was close to the end.”

With the specter of 1918 hovering overhead, the righhander came out of the bullpen one last time. Catcher Jason Varitek was there with a question.

“When I came to the mound, Tek asked me how my slider was in the bullpen,” said Leskanic. “As long as it was changing planes it was still a competitive pitch, so I told him it was working well. We went with that.

“My first pitch to Williams was a strike and on the second we got a pop-up. Walking off the mound, I was like, ‘Man, Lord, please let’s score a run right now so we can win this game and go home.’ At that point, I was just in pain.”

——

The recent brouhahas between the Red Sox and Rays have come as no surprise. The teams have a history of scrapping when they play each other, sometimes for silly reasons. Lines of propriety have been straddled, if not crossed. Jonny Gomes has been on both sides.

I asked Joe Maddon his opinion of Gomes running in from left field to escalate the Yunel-Escobar-versus-the-Red-Sox-bench episode last weekend. Was it acceptable for a player to leave his position to insert himself into a situation?

“It depends on what team you’re on,” responded Maddon. “That’s a situation where a guy sticks up for his teammates, so it’s all about interpretation. If it’s your teammate, you love it. If it happens from the other side, you’d argue against it. It happened here in 2008. Jonny came running in [from the Rays] bench. Another time he came from right field against the Yankees. Again, it depends on which side you’re on.”

The 2008 incident culminated in a bench-clearing brawl that saw Gomes throwing punches at a Red Sox player at the bottom of a pile. A person involved in the game remembers the precipitating events this way:

“A few years back we had the James ShieldsCoco Crisp thing. Everybody in the stands knew he was going to throw at him on the first pitch. The night before, Coco was yelling at Joe Maddon and the whole team. Things happen that upset people, and bad blood carries over.”

I asked a contact with another team for his take on pitchers intentionally hitting hitters. He didn’t want his name used, but he did share this anecdote:

“There was an incident last year at our place versus,” he said. “We had everything set up for [Pitcher X] to come into the game and go inside on [Hitter X]. He was their top hitter and our guy wasn’t going to be scared if he decided to charge the mound. He wasn’t someone you’d necessarily want to charge the mound against. But there really aren’t phone calls to the bullpen saying to hit a guy. Even so, every pitcher has his own way of thinking. Some guys feel it’s justified to drill someone, so they’re going to do it.”

——

Joba Chamberlain isn’t afraid to answer questions, and he’s had plenty of opportunity to do so. The Detroit Tigers righthander was a much-ballyhooed prospect with the Yankees and was introduced to the New York media almost immediately. He made it to the Bronx in his first professional season [2007] after stops in Tampa, Trenton, and Scranton Wilkes-Barre.

Adapting was a whirlwind in more ways than one. Moving through a system quickly is any player’s goal, but it isn’t without its obstacles.

“By the time I would get set up at one place I’d be moving to another,” said Chamberlain. “That was something I’d never done before, so I never really felt settled. It was a weird feeling to get called into the office and told I’m moving up a level and am pitching the next day. I’d get in my car and drive, and the next thing I knew I was throwing in a game for a different team.

“What made it especially tough is that every time I moved up it was around the time I was suppose to see my son. It’s not like the big leagues where you know which city you’ll be in.”

Chamberlain received media attention at every stop along the way. He became used to having reporters at his locker every day, and no longer finds it disruptive – at least not that he’ll admit.

“I’m fine with it,” said Chamberlain. “There are people whose job it is to ask you questions, and part of your job is to answer them. You want to give them the time and respect they deserve, and answer their questions honestly and up front. When you blow the game you blow the game. You don’t want to make it a bigger deal than it is, you just answer the questions.”