Archive for Daily Graphings

The Phillies Are Failing In a Different Way Than Expected

All throughout the winter — and for the last few winters, really — the Philadelphia Phillies have been the go-to for easy jokes to make about seemingly terribly-run baseball teams. We’ve wrung years of hilarity out of the Ryan Howard extension, dating to basically the exact moment it was signed. We cringed at the riches awarded to the declining Jonathan Papelbon in an era where teams are getting smarter about the values of closers. We watched GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. squeeze a few more good years after Pat Gillick’s 2008 World Series champs once he was promoted in Nov. 2008, then ride the team downward from 102 wins in 2011 to 82 in 2012 to 73 in 2013, all while refusing to trade any of the team’s clearly aging core. Just days ago, the Sporting News ranked all 30 GMs. Amaro came in last, and while none of those rankings have a lot of science to them, it’s hardly the first time.

And really, it was a different kind of bad for the Phillies. The Astros are worse on the field, and so are the Cubs. But those teams, and others like them, seemed to have a plan. They were willing to suffer the pain of 100-loss seasons in order to rebuild barren farm systems. They’re not there yet, but they’re both going in the right direction. The Phillies, meanwhile, refused to trade Cliff Lee or Cole Hamels or Chase Utley or Jimmy Rollins for talent that could have been on track to form the core of the next good Phillies team with J.P. Crawford and Jesse Biddle. Amaro, likely with his own employment status in mind, chose to retain or re-sign all while reloading with the likes of Michael Young and Delmon Young in 2013, then to get even older with his main moves for 2014: Read the rest of this entry »


George Springer and Maximizing Contact

Several weeks ago, there was some concern over Edwin Encarnacion. He was having a somewhat strikeout-prone April, and he was having an under-powered April, and Jays fans weren’t sure what to make of the guy going forward. He’s since hit 13 home runs in May, all in a span of 20 games, and now he basically seems like himself, and on a hot streak to boot. All concern has been erased.

Similarly, people were very worried about George Springer after an underwhelming first couple weeks. Of course, Springer didn’t have Encarnacion’s track record, and of course, Springer was a rookie getting exposed to the majors for the first time, but I’d field questions in my chats about whether or not Springer might get demoted since his power was totally absent. In April, Springer batted .182 without a single dinger. In May, he’s batted .325 with eight dingers, and he’s homered in four games in a row. Springer has been one of the best hitters in baseball lately, and the initial overreaction now seems silly and absurd. Give rookies time. Especially the really good ones.

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Yasiel Puig’s Historic Start

Fun fact: over the last 365 days, the best hitter in baseball has been neither Miguel Cabrera nor Mike Trout. Instead, Yasiel Puig has ascended to the top of the charts, posting a 172 wRC+ that just edges past both superstars. Also fun fact: that 172 wRC+ is Puig’s career mark, because his entire Major League experience has been contained within the last calendar year. He’s a dozen games shy of one full Major league season, and he has a 172 wRC+.

Let’s try and put that start in some historical perspective. Tony already noted how good Puig’s rookie season was, relative to other 22-year-olds, but let’s see if we can go a little further, and isolate the best debut years in baseball history. This is actually a little difficult, because querying gamelog totals is not particularly easy, but we can hack together a list of comparisons using Baseball-Reference’s Play Index and our summable game logs here on FanGraphs.

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The Most Improved Hitters Thus Far by the Projections

What follows represents an attempt by the author to utilize the projections available at the site to identify the five major-league hitters whose wOBA projections have most improved since the beginning of the season.

For every batter, what I’ve done is first to calculate his preseason (PRE) wOBA projection, averaging together Steamer and ZiPS forecasts where both are available. What I’ve done next is to calculate every hitter’s rest-of-season (ROS) wOBA projection (again, using both Steamer and ZiPS when available). I’ve then found the difference in wOBA between the preseason and rest-of-season projection.

When I attempted a similar exercise last month (with WAR, in that case), I used updated end-of-season projections instead of rest-of-season ones. The advantage of the latter (and why I’m using it here) is that it provides the closest available thing to an estimate of any given player’s current true-talent level — which, reason dictates, is what one requires to best identify those players who have most improved.

Only those hitters have been considered who both (a) are currently on a major-league roster and (b) weren’t accidentally omitted by the author, who is a moron. Note that Projection denotes a composite Steamer and ZiPS projection. PRE denotes the player’s preseason projection; ROS, the rest-of-season projection. Plate-appearances estimates for both PRE and ROS projections are taken from relevant batter’s depth-chart projection. Data is current as of Monday.

***

5. Devin Mesoraco, C, Cincinnati (Profile)
Projection (PRE): 413 PA, .247/.308/.413 (.274 BABIP), .313 wOBA, 96 wRC+
Projection (ROS): 240 PA, .260/.320/.438 (.288 BABIP), .330 wOBA, 107 wRC+

Notes
In 160-plus career starts for the club, Mesoraco has served as Cincinnati’s cleanup hitter just three times. In five starts since last Monday, Mesoraco has also served as Cincinnati’s cleanup hitter three times. In part, the loss of Jay Bruce and then (upon Bruce’s return) Joey Votto has facilitated the move. In part, it’s Mesoraco’s own production which has suggested to manager Bryan Price that his catcher ought to occupy one of the most important spots (both symbolically and actually) in the Reds lineup. Notably, Mesoraco’s plate-discipline projections haven’t improved at all. Rather, it’s his early BABIP and power-on-contact figures which have led to his more encouraging forecasts.

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Projected Win Totals, Graphed

This post is a bit of an experiment. During the day, while working on various writing topics and filtering through different ideas, I’ll often come up with something that isn’t quite worthy of a full 1,000 word post, but is interesting enough to share on its own. A lot of times, these things just end up on Twitter, but sometimes, they just don’t go anywhere.

Instead of just leaving these in the back room, I’m going to start putting them up just as stand-alone, low-commentary posts and see if there’s enough interest in the data points as conversation generators to continue posting them. If it turns out that you guys don’t like them, I won’t keep doing them, so critical feedback is certainly welcome, but perhaps there’s room on FanGraphs for posts that aren’t quite fully fleshed ideas, but instead just interesting statistical nuggets. We’ll see, I guess.

If you go to the site’s Playoff Odds page, you’ll see some pretty staggering numbers for the teams at the top. Our model currently forecasts the Tigers to have a 94% chance of reaching the postseason, for instance, both Bay Area teams are strong favorites to reach at least the Wild Card game as well. These numbers are surprisingly high given that we’re still in May, and there’s fourth months of baseball left to play. A lot can happen in four months.

But to illustrate why those numbers are so high, it helps to take a look at the projected final records in graph form, because there are some huge gaps between the teams at the top and the teams in the middle or bottom.

Here’s the American League first.

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Oakland’s One-Hit Wonder

Something wacky happened in Tampa Bay on Wednesday night. When something wacky happens in baseball, @cantpredictball is usually on the case. I’ll let them (him? her?) begin the storytelling:

You don’t need me, or cantpredictball, to tell you that’s rare. According to the Baseball-Reference Play Index, teams that get one-hit have won just 62 baseball games in 100 years. That’s just the ninth time it’s happened in the last decade. Oakland had never done it in its 45-year tenure as a franchise.

What’s funny about the game, besides the Athletics being victorious with one hit, is that if you look at the win expectancy chart, you really can’t even tell when that hit came. Go ahead, see if you can tell:
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Quarterly Report – Troy Tulowitzki

A little over over a quarter of the 2014 season is in the books, and the sample sizes are creeping toward a representative level. Over the past couple of weeks, we have been taking somewhat deeper looks at some of this season’s more noteworthy players and performances to date. “Noteworthy” doesn’t always mean “best”, though it does in most cases. Today, we’ll take a look at the first quarter performance of Troy Tulowitzki, who has torn the National League limb from limb in the early going. Though he’s played at an All Star level for years now, he has taken things to a whole new level in 2014. Is this at all sustainable? Are the improvements in his offensive game real, or is this small sample size theater? How much does Coors Field have to do with all of this?

Troy Tulowitzki was selected with the seventh overall pick in the memorable 2005 draft. I will always have the order of a good chunk of that first round firmly embedded in my memory bank – One, Justin Upton, two, Alex Gordon, three, Jeff Clement, four, Ryan Zimmerman, five, Ryan Braun, six, Ricky Romero, seven, Tulo. Andrew McCutchen went 11th, Jay Bruce went 12th, Jacoby Ellsbury went 23rd, Matt Garza went 25th, Colby Rasmus went 28th……pretty good first round. I was a member of the Brewers’ front office then and remember that first round unfolding. For us, it was a very tough call between Braun and Tulowitzki. Though you really couldn’t go wrong with that coin flip, I’m pretty sure that most parties would agree that Tulowitzki has turned out to be the very best player among that group. Impact offense and defense, and still playing shortstop at age 29, with no position shift anywhere on the horizon.

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Sunday Notes: Dickey & Scherzer on Pitch Counts, Bando’s Spitball, Blue Jays

On July 2, 1963, the San Francisco Giants beat the Milwaukee Braves 1-0 in 16 innings. Juan Marichal and Warren Spahn both pitched complete games. Marichal threw 227 pitches, Spahn, who was 41 years old at the time, threw 201.

What do R.A. Dickey and Max Scherzer think about the historic duel?

“I’m speechless, really,” said Dickey. “In this day and age we’re not used to seeing totals that come anywhere close to that. It’s quite remarkable. That being said, I’ve always been a guy who likes to throw a lot of pitches.”

“It’s amazing what they did,” said Scherzer. “Many guys in the past were able to consistently throw150-160, and they did it in four-man rotations. That seems preposterous in today’s game.”

By modern-day standards, Scherzer is a workhorse. The Detroit Tigers righthander has thrown at least 100 pitches in 37 of his last 42 regular season starts. On 18 of those occasions he’s thrown 110 or more. His high-water mark is 123. Could he imagine doing what Marichal and Spahn did 51 years ago?

“Could I get conditioned for 200 pitches? Yes, I think I could,” said Scherzer. “But my per-pitch intensity would have to be less than where I’m at right now. I don’t think there’s any way [Marichal and Spahn] were throwing 95 [mph] and their effort level had to have been lower. So yes, some pitchers today could do it, but with less intensity.”

Dickey believes much the same. The 39-year-old Toronto Blue Jays righty regularly logs over 100 pitches per outing, and he feels he could throw many more.

“As a knuckleballer, I could throw 200 pitches fairly easily,” said Dickey. “I’m not exerting nearly the force Max would be. He would have to temper it back, but I’m already operating at about 70 percent capacity. It wouldn’t be that much for me to throw that many pitches. But it comes down to effectiveness. If a pitcher is throwing 150 and getting his brains beat in, then he’s throwing 150 just to throw 150.”

Dickey was a conventional pitcher early in this career. Could he have approached Marichal-Spahn territory in his pre-knuckleball days?

“I could have,” said Dickey. “I threw 183 once [at the University of Tennessee]. I did that in a regional. I started a game and went seven innings, had two days off, then threw 183 to get us to the College World Series. A few other times I threw around 160.”

Scherzer hasn’t thrown nearly that many, but he does see value in stretching the limits. He feels it’s especially beneficial as a learning tool.

“In college, I think I threw as many as 133,” said Scherzer. “The whole pitch count thing… yeah, it’s right, but the biggest thing is how many days off you get after you make one of those types of starts. I think it’s fine to pitch that deep. You learn a lot about yourself on the pitches after 100. I’ve always been a big believer in that. That’s why I think going to college is better than signing out of high school.

“In college you’re on a seven-day rotation and constantly exposed to 120 pitches. That’s not the same as 120 pitches every five days. I think it’s good for a pitcher – and good for his arm – to learn how to pitch that deep into a game. When you’re fatigued, you have to pitch. You have to execute and use your off-speed. You also have to conserve so you can still throw your best thunderbolt on pitch 125.

“I’ve been told that some of the all-time greats, like Sandy Koufax, would smell the win when they got into the ninth inning. That’s when they got nasty. They were cruising with less of an an intensity level, and at the end they really picked it up.”

Dickey doesn’t practice conservation, but he does agree on the educational value of extended outings.

“The more you’re pushed, the more you see what you’re capable of doing with deeper pitch counts,” said Dickey. “You learn 130-140 is something you can handle. There doesn’t have be that psychological barrier. You can be conditioned for it just like you can be conditioned to run a marathon.

“As for [saving thunderbolts], that’s not really something I do. Some other guys may do that within the framework of nine innings. I remember watching Bartolo Colon pitch in his prime. He would be 91-92 and then in the eighth and ninth innings he’d be 98. I’ve seen Verlander do that too. I’m different in that respect, but again, I’m not exerting the same kind of force.

“Do I tip my hat to Marichal and Spahn? Oh, man, are you kidding? Absolutely. But the dynamic of a pitching staff has changed so much. There are specialized relievers. Teams are paying much more attention to the metrics of righty-versus-righty, and this guy versus that guy, and managers are making decisions based on those metrics. It’s a big reason we’re seeing lesser and lesser pitch counts for starters.”

——

Pitch counts weren’t a big deal for the Brewers in the late 1970s. Their starters threw a lot of innings, but not necessarily a lot of pitches. From 1978-1980, the Milwaukee staff allowed the fewest walks and logged the fewest strikeouts in the American League.

Buck Martinez, now a broadcaster for the Blue Jays, was one of the Brewers’ catchers in those seasons. He says the low strikeout and walk totals were by design.

“When I got to Milwaukee in 1978, George Bamberger was the manager,” said Martinez. “The first thing he said to the pitching staff was, ‘Boys, we’re going to cut the walks in half. We can’t have 800 walks in a season.’ He wanted our pitchers to limit the number of pitches batters saw. That helped turn things around in Milwaukee.”

The results speak for themselves. After winning just 67 games in 1977, the Brewers won 93 and 95 in Bamberger’s first two seasons at the helm. Offense was a big reason – Bamberger’s teams were the precursor to “Harvey’s Wallbangers” – but the pitch-to-contact approach clearly paid dividends.

“It was about pitching late into the game,” said Martinez. “Who are your best pitchers? They’re your starters, so you want them pitching most of your innings. You do that by reducing your pitch counts – not that we had pitch counts back then; the hitters told you when you were tired. We simply didn’t consider strikeouts important. It was about outs. We had a good offensive club and our pitchers realized the longer they stayed in the game, the more chances we had to score runs and give them a win.”

Mike Caldwell and Lary Sorensen were among the beneficiaries. In 1978, the duo combined to win 40 games and pitch 574 innings. Caldwell’s K/9 was 4.0. Sorenson’s was 2.5.

The 1979 season featured one of the most unique pitcher-usage games in baseball annals. On August 29, Bamberger used position players for the final five innings of an 18-8 loss to the Kansas City Royals. Third baseman Sal Bando went three innings. Second baseman Jim Gantner and Martinez each went one inning.

“We were down by a ton and didn’t want to use any more pitchers,” explained Martinez. “Bamberger handed Bando the ball and said ‘you’re pitching,’ Gantner was in the dugout lobbying to pitch. I called down from the bullpen and told [pitching coach] Cal McLish, ‘I want to pitch in this game.’ The game was in Kansas City and I had come to the Brewers from the Royals. I warmed up for about five innings, so by the time I got to the mound I was dead tired. I’d still have been out of the inning without giving up a run had Bando been able to turn a double play. He was playing second base by then. I threw fastballs, curveballs and a palm ball. I got Amos Otis to pop up on a palm ball.”

According to Martinez, Bando had a go-to pitch of his own.

“Sal came out for the second inning looking like a McDonald’s french fry pack,” said Martinez. “ He was greasy all over the place. He had Vaseline everywhere. He got all doctored up to pitch the next two innings.”

——

Rob Rasmussen has faced one batter. The Blue Jays southpaw made his big-league debut on Tuesday at Fenway Park. He retired David Ortiz on a ground ball to first base.

John Gibbons hinted the match-up might happen during his pregame media session. Asked about the 25-year-old UCLA product, the Toronto skipper said, ‘Who knows, maybe he’ll come in face Ortiz tonight.’ Word got to Rasmussen as the team prepared to take batting practice.

“People were asking, ‘What are you going to do if you have to face Ortiz?’ Rasmussen told me the following day. “That was kind of out of the blue a little bit. I didn’t know what to say, because I didn’t know Gibby had said that.”

Rumor became truth in the seventh inning.

“While we were hitting, they said ‘Hey, you’ve got Ortiz.’ They told me Dustin [McGowan] was going to face Pedroia to start the inning, then I was going to get Ortiz. After that, Delabar was coming in to get Napoli. It was my first time getting hot in a big-league pen, and to be honest, it was kind of a surreal moment.”

What did Gibbons say to the rookie when he reached the mound?

“Gibby said, ”Hey, have fun and join us in this party.’ That made me smile. It made me realize this is fun. There’s tons of money and a lot on the line in terms of wins, but at the end of the day it’s about enjoying the moment. We had a three-run lead, so I also knew the worst I could do was give up a solo home run and we’d still be up two.”

It took five pitches for him to retire Big Papi. I asked Rasmussen to describe the at bat.

“I fell behind with two fastballs, which wasn’t ideal,” said Rasmussen. “The first one I yanked down and away. The second one was a little up and off the plate. On the first one I was just trying to get that first strike in there, but there was such an adrenaline rush that I missed. I had to step back and take a deep breath. The second pitch wasn’t a strike, but it was more of a quality pitch. It was, ‘OK, that was better. Here we go.’ Then I got a fastball in that he took to make it 2-1. Then I threw a slider that kind of cement mixed – it backed up – but fortunately he fouled it off. On 2-2, I threw a curveball and he rolled it over to Edwin [Encarnacion].”

Adrenaline aside, Rasmussen claims to have been calm and focused on the mound. Once it was over, he reflected on the experience.

“When I came out of the game is when it really hit me,” said Rasmussen. “It was like, ‘Oh, man.’ It was then that I kind of realized the magnitude of what I did. I had just realized a dream.”

——

Everyone loves a good quote, and Steve Delabar is no exception. The Toronto reliever gladly accepted my invitation to participate in “the quote game,” an offbeat interview approach I’ve had fun with over the years. In short, I recited half a dozen notable baseball quotes, and Delabar gave me his interpretation of them.

Good pitching will always stop good hitting, and vice versa. – Casey Stengel

“That’s true in a sense. The way I see it is good pitches beat good hitters. Good pitchers can make bad pitches.”

I exploit the greed of all hitters. – Lew Burdette

“He was exploiting the gray. I’m a power guy so that doesn’t really apply to me. I’m just trying to throw it around the strike zone and let it eat.”

A baseball game is a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings. – Earl Wilson

“Every inning, something crazy can happen. If you sat in a dugout during a game, you’d understand why. There are so many ebbs and flows. You can be as high as the moon in one inning and then the other team starts chipping away and you hit the panic button and freak out. You’re up and down the whole game, so you just try to chill.”

Baseball is like a church. Many attend but few understand. – Leo Durocher

“The further you get away from the field, the easier the game is. Even the guys in the dugout will say ‘Why did he do that?’ On the field, decisions have to be made at the speed of the game. When you’re questioning what somebody did, well, go out there on the field and make that decision.”

A ballplayer has two reputations, one with the other players and one with the fans. The first is based on ability and the second the newspapers give him. – Johnny Evers

“Now, with the social media, you can kind of show everybody what kind of person you are. Still, you could be the greatest guy and the best teammate, but if you’re not getting the job done, the media might blow you up.”

You have to be a man to play baseball, but you have to a lot of little boy in you – Roy Campanella

“You need to have fun. You can’t let it become too serious. You work hard on the side to play the game, but they don’t say ‘We’re going to work baseball.’ They say, ‘We’re going to play baseball.’ It’s a job, but we play our job. You don’t tell a kid, ‘Go to your room and work with your toys.’”


So Dellin Betances has Arrived

Dellin Betances made his major-league debut as a top prospect in 2011. Here’s how that went for him:

betances2011

(via Baseball Savant)

You don’t need to know much about that chart to know that Betances was terrible. Beyond struggling with precise location, he struggled with general location, and he looked nothing like a pitcher a team would want to use. He had size and he had heat, but he didn’t have anything else, and there were signs he’d end up nothing but a bust.

In one sense, Betances is back. In another sense, he’s arrived for the first time. Betances now is excelling as a Yankees reliever, and the past no longer has much relevance. He’s changed some parts about his delivery. He’s changed his breaking ball. He’s changed his role, which is the most significant change of all. The things Betances has kept are his size and his heat, but the questions from the past aren’t the questions of today. I’m not sure today there are any questions.

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The Story of SABR101x

Professor Andy Andres remembers the first year that he and his colleagues, David Tybor and Morgan Melchiorre, taught the Sabermetrics 101 course at Tufts University. One of the more memorable lectures came on October 18, 2004, which was a pretty memorable night in New England. Though Game 5 of the American League Championship Series had started around 5 pm, Sabermetrics 101 — which met in the evenings — was still in session. At least for a time.

“We felt like we had to get through the lecture,” Andres recalls. “So Tybor and I, he’s got the radio, and every half inning we’d write the line score [on the blackboard].” But then in the eighth inning, David Ortiz belted a homer into the Monster seats. Andres and Tybor consulted, but determined that since Melchiorre had been lecturing about Derek Jeter’s defense at the time that they should let him preach, hoping the good karma would continue to rub off on the team. But they weren’t the only ones who had learned of Ortiz’s feats. “One of the girls in the back of the room, went ‘Wahooooooo, Ortiz just hit a home run!” Class dismissed. “We immediately shut it down, and switched to FOX,” Andres says.

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