Chances are that if you are fortunate enough to watch baseball games with a hardcore fan of an older generation, you hear complaints about the way baseball is played today compared to the “good old days”. Even with the draining of offense from the game over the past decade for obvious reasons, it does seem that almost every lineup is littered with power-focused, swing-and-miss types. One-run strategies are utilized less often, and speed seems to be less emphasized than in the past. Some of this is due to the game’s natural evolution, and a result of the encroachment of analysis into the game’s fabric.

An honest analyst with some scouting chops must realize that speed and athleticism are often at the core of the aspects of the game that are hardest to objectively measure, among them defense and baserunning. How much of the offensive and defensive impact of some of today’s fastest players is attributable to their speed? In light of some of the resulting answers to that questions, what is the Reds’ chance of success with their current Billy Hamilton experiment? Let’s use some batted-ball data to make some conclusions. Read the rest of this entry »

During their time together, much was written about Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, and the idea of lineup protection. In theory, by having Fielder right behind him, Cabrera would get more hittable pitches and hittable fastballs. Certainly, Cabrera’s offensive game didn’t suffer, and when Fielder went away, much more was written about the idea of losing lineup protection. Would Cabrera be pitched around, with an inferior threat behind him? In the very early going in 2014, there were half-humorous observations that Cabrera’s rate of pitches in the strike zone actually went up. That is, by losing his protection, Cabrera wound up in a better spot, and therefore the idea of protection is nonsense.

But there’s something interesting there. Pitch patterns, given a good-enough sample, can reveal something about opposing scouting reports. If Cabrera had seen more strikes with Fielder on deck, perhaps that would suggest that Fielder was serving as protection. Josh Hamilton doesn’t get a lot of pitches in the strike zone, because teams know to make him chase. Marco Scutaro gets a lot of pitches in the strike zone, because teams know not to be too afraid. What if — what if — teams pitched to Miguel Cabrera as if they weren’t that afraid of him? That would be crazy, right? Wouldn’t that be crazy?

Read the rest of this entry »

A few years ago — unfortunately I don’t remember where — I remember seeing an article beginning with the premise that not all pitches out of the strike zone are alike. What we offer here on FanGraphs is O-Swing%, a rate of swings at pitches out of the PITCHf/x zone. Yet this groups all such swings and pitches together, and for a hitter, swinging at a pitch an inch outside is different from swinging at a pitch a foot outside. One might indicate a little better discipline than the other. The author decided to see if there were cases where O-Swing% was misleading, given the distribution of swings at balls. What he found was, no, it’s fine. Over full seasons, there’s no need to get more granular. But what about when you’re short of full seasons?

This little study was inspired by Jose Abreu, and a hunch. Abreu, right now, owns a 152 wRC+ in his first-ever exposure to the bigs, and his isolated slugging percentage is an impossible .369. He’s already been everything the White Sox could’ve dreamed of. Abreu also owns one of baseball’s higher O-Swing% rates, at 39%. He’s been fed a lot of pitches out of the zone, and he’s swung at a lot of pitches out of the zone, and that trait and success don’t always go hand in hand. What I wondered was: has Abreu been swinging at borderline balls, or has he really been fishing? He’s already demonstrated that he can drive pitches on any of the edges. His functional zone might just be bigger than the average zone. To what degree has his zone really expanded?

Read the rest of this entry »

The Royals, as you most likely know, are something far from a powerful team. It took them until April 9 to hit their first homer of the year, an Alex Gordon shot that likely wouldn’t have made it out of any ballpark in the big leagues had it not been wind-aided. It took them until April 15 to hit their second. Even now, 24 games into the season, they have only 10, four coming in the span of a week from Mike Moustakas, who has just 13 total hits — and a .159/.213/.354 line — all year. They have as many homers as a team as Jose Abreu does on his own. Their isolated power is .001 better than that of the Mets, and is in shouting distance of the worst mark we’ve seen in decades. They’re on pace for 67 homers. No one has hit fewer than 70 since the 1991 St. Louis Cardinals, who had only Todd Zeile break into double-digits with 11.

This isn’t a surprise. The Royals hit the fewest homers in the American League last year, and they tied with Minnesota for the fewest in 2012. This wasn’t built to be a powerful team, and it’s not.

Read the rest of this entry »

Sometimes hitters are terse about their craft. They aren’t all Joey Votto, after all. But if you can pry a few thoughts from them, you’ll still find multitudes underneath seemingly simple statements. At least, that’s what happened after a conversation I had with Prince Fielder last week.

Before a game against the Athletics on April 22nd, I pointed out to the Rangers’ slugger that he makes more contact than most power hitters. “I’m making more contact on pitches that I want to swing at,” Fielder said of maturing as a hitter. The average top-30 home run hitter since 2011 has swung and missed at nearly 11% of the pitches he’s seen. Fielder’s swinging strike rate over the same time frame is 8.7%.

But things have changed in this regard over his career. Over his first four seasons, he struck out 19% of the time and swung and missed more than 11% of the time. Over his last four seasons, he’s struck out 14.5% of the time, thanks to that reduced swinging strike rate.

Ask the slugger, and the answer why seems so simple: “Trying to be ready to hit,” he offered with a shrug before asking: “Being more selective?” His reach rates haven’t improved much, though. In the first four years of his career, he swung at 27.4% of pitches outside the zone and 69.1% of pitches inside the zone. The last four years, he’s swung at 30.4% of pitches outside the zone and 67.7% of pitches inside the zone. Strange way to become more selective.

What Fielder has done is swung less as he’s aged — down from 47-48% to around 44-45%. There’s some evidence that swinging less is good for you, even without slicing it into swinging more at pitches inside the zone and less at pitches outside the zone. The Twins are trying this approach out currently.

But let’s look at this brute force stat — swing% — on an individual level. Since 2011, there have been 233 qualified batters. Take a look at how the top 50 and bottom 50 in swing percentage have done against each over that time frame.

Read the rest on FoxSports.com.

Last year, the St. Louis Cardinals scored nearly five runs per game and bashed their way to the World Series. Okay, the pitching helped too, but the 2013 Cardinals were far better at scoring runs than any other NL team — the Rockies were #2 in the NL in runs scored, but were still 77 runs back — and that was their competitive advantage. And then, over the off-season, they replaced Pete Kozma with Jhonny Peralta, which is about as large of an offensive upgrade at a position as any team made over the winter. Sure, they lost Carlos Beltran, but he was replaced by Matt Adams, and swapping out David Freese for Kolten Wong didn’t appear to be a significant offensive downgrade.

The 2014 Cardinals aren’t exactly the same team as the 2013 Cardinals, but this is more of a tweaked line-up than an overhauled one, and the general core remains the same. And yet, after finishing third in the majors in run scoring last year, St. Louis currently finds themselves 28th in the majors this year, and has hit so poorly that the team has already made a few adjustments to their roster. So, what’s going on in the Gateway City?

Read the rest of this entry »

As I write this, it’s still early in the 2014 regular season. But, as I write this, Ervin Santana has one of baseball’s better adjusted ERAs. He has a top-five adjusted FIP and a top-10 adjusted xFIP. He has a top-10 strikeout rate, an upper-level strikeout/walk ratio and a top-five contact rate allowed. He’s been absolutely dominant against right-handed hitters, and he’s been only slightly less dominant against left-handed hitters. Santana was late to sign — and it took some injuries to get him to Atlanta — but through a handful of starts, Santana has demonstrated a new level of ability.

And, looking back, perhaps we were tipped off. Think about how you used to think about Ervin Santana. He was homer-prone — in your head and in the numbers — and he was an example of a fastball/slider starting pitcher. He never mastered a third pitch, so he never frequently threw a third pitch. And while his slider was good enough for him to get by, the limited repertoire set him a lower ceiling. Santana, we assumed, was a known entity. Then we heard something at the end of December.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s no secret that Christian Yelich can hit. The 22-year-old Miami Marlins outfielder was drafted 23rd overall in 2010 for much that reason. He proceeded to hit .313/.387/.499 in the minors before being called up last July. This year he’s off to a .315.384/.393 start in 99 plate appearances. Many view him as a future batting champion.

Yelich is more guarded than most. I’ve asked hundreds of hitters about their approach, and almost all have been willing to expound on it. Not Yelich. When I broached the subject earlier this week he was personable yet reticent.

“I will not tell you that,” responded Yelich. “I do look for stuff up there, but I don’t really want to say what I’m trying to do. I don’t like talking about my approach.”

That wasn’t the answer I’d hoped for, as talking to the talented youngster about his craft was a primary reason I ventured into the clubhouse. Pursuing it from a different angle, I asked if he is the same hitter now as when he signed.

“I think you stay the same,” answered Yelich. “Guys get in trouble when they try to change when they get to pro ball, or when they get called up to the big leagues. Making major changes usually isn’t a great idea, but you can make adjustments. Teams make adjustments to you and you make adjustments to them. That’s the game of baseball.”

The left-handed hitter was fairly forthcoming on mechanics.

“Coming into pro ball I was a little taller,” said Yelich. “I was basically straight up. I really wasn’t on my legs a whole lot. I made an adjustment to spread out a little bit. Guys were throwing harder and I was able to recognize pitches a little better that way. That’s the only major mechanical adjustment I’ve made.

“Physically, every hitter is different. Guys have things they do when they’re successful, and things they do when they’re starting to go bad. You have to be able to recognize what those are. You learn yourself coming up through the minors; you learn your swing better.”

He remained reserved when I revisited his approach.

“Your first go-round in the big leagues against some of these teams… I’m learning pitchers,” said Yelich. “Certain pitchers do certain things and fall into patterns. And pitchers try to learn hitters. That’s why I don’t want to tell you about my approach at the plate. It’s a big part of the game. Certain guys pitch you a certain way and other guys pitch another way.”

I asked what a hitter can divulge that can’t be ascertained from video and scouting reports.

“You’d be surprised,” said Yelich. “That’s just the way it is.”

——

Jarrod Saltalamacchia is open about what it means to be a Marlin. The 28-year-old catcher is a veteran presence on a team loaded with youth and promise. Last season he was the second-youngest starter on a team that won the World Series. I asked “Salty” about going from Boston to Miami.

“There’s a lot less media here,” answered Saltalamacchia. “There aren’t 25-30 [reporters] waiting for you after a game like in Boston. Otherwise, the biggest difference is that there are a lot of younger guys. I’m finding myself saying things like ‘This is how we did it’ or ‘This is what I’ve seen.’ In some ways, it’s almost more of a coaching [role].

“We have a lot of young guys who can play but are still trying to find themselves,” continued Saltalamacchia. “The league doesn’t really know them, so it’s fun to see them go out there and just kind of see-ball-hit-ball. That’s kind of a Catch-22. In one respect it’s good, because you want them to be… how should I say this? With veteran guys you know what you’re going to get. With young guys there are still a lot of unknowns. It’s fun for me to watch them go out there and just play the game, have fun, and kind of search for who they are.”

I asked Saltalamacchia, a week short of his 29th birthday, if he has a firm grasp of who he is as player.

“I pretty much know who I am now,” said Saltalamacchia. “I don’t go out there to do more than I’m capable of doing. The best thing about veteran guys is you don’t see them trying to be something they’re not. They know what they can do with certain pitches and they do it. They also know how to control their emotions. Young guys are still young. They try to prove themselves by doing more.

“When I was in Texas, I would watch guys like Mike Young hit and be like, ‘Man, that would be awesome; I’m going to try to do that.’ But that wasn’t me. I’m not going to be a contact hitter. I’m going to work counts and try to hit gaps. I’m going to have my strikeouts. It wasn’t until I got to Boston and talked to Varitek, Pedroia and some of the other veterans – they said ‘Hey, don’t get away from who you are.’ Dave Magadan was another huge help as far as finding out who I am.”

Saltalamacchia feels Jose Fernandez has yet to fully find himself. That’s bad news for opposing teams, as the Marlins ace is already one of the best pitchers in baseball. He is also, as Salty recognizes, just 21 years old.

“Jose has amazing stuff, but he’s still kind of throwing the ball,” opined Saltalamacchia, one day before Fernandez overpowered the Atlanta Braves with 97-mph fastballs and knee-buckling curveballs. “Once he discovers how good he really is and starts pitching, he’s going to be really, really good.”

The veteran catcher cites 28-year-old closer Steve Cishek as an example of a pitcher with a good understanding of who he is.

“There are times he’ll come set and wait a few seconds, because he wants the hitter to maybe think a little bit more,” said Saltalamacchia. “Or he’ll just bear down and really concentrate on where he wants the pitch to go. He’s got a good understanding of who’s up and he knows how to slow the game down. If you’re able to slow the game down enough to where you’re thinking and not just gripping the ball and throwing… that’s something that comes with experience.”

——

Vidal Nuno has experienced a lot at a relatively young age. The 26-year-old southpaw went from California to Kansas before Cleveland took him in the 48th round of the 2009 draft. Two years later he was pitching in the independent Frontier League. Last week he replaced the injured Ivan Nova in the New York Yankees starting rotation.

How did Nuno end up at Baker University in Baldwin City, Kansas?

“It was about opportunities and needing to see the world a little bit, see the United States,” explained Nuno. “I talked to family members, and a couple of scouts told me the best way to get my name out there was to move on from San Diego. I had options – I could have gone to San Diego State – but I needed to get out and meet new people, have some new connections.

“I wasn’t drafted out of high school. I was a small kid, barely throwing 82, but I had good command and a heart that made me compete. I had that going for me.”

Those attributes were enough for Nuno to excel at the small-college level and get drafted. They weren’t enough to keep him in pro ball. The Indians released him after a nondescript first full professional season in low-A. I asked the stocky lefty if he feared his career might be over when he was let go.

“Oh yeah,” admitted Nuno. “That’s always a question when you get released, or even when things aren’t going your way. It was a little downfall for me. What they told me was there weren’t enough innings where I was at. They’d drafted a lot of pitchers the last two years and there is always going to be a depth chart. Teams are going to give the chances to the guys who got the bonus money. It’s about getting an opportunity, and when I’ve gotten an opportunity I’ve done my best to take advantage of it.”

That’s exactly what Nuno has done since the Yankees signed him off the scrap heap. Despite a fastball that averages just 89 mph, he’s pitched himself onto a big league staff. How did he do it?

“It’s been heart and work ethic,” opined Nuno. “I also added a changeup and a cutter from Double-A to now. I’ve always had good command, but instead of having two pitches, I have five or six. I use all of them. I have to.

“It’s all about pressure points and arm action. I’m not a flamethrower. I’m a crafty guy. I have to be crafty and make the ball move. If I do that and locate in and out, it’s going to be a good day.”

——

Mick Kelleher didn’t have a particularly good day on August 7, 1977. Playing for the Chicago Cubs, the 5-foot-9, 170 lb. infielder suffered bruised ribs tangling with Dave Kingman. Known for his prodigious power, “King Kong” stood 6-foot-6 and weighed well over 200 pounds.

Kelleher currently coaches first base for the Yankees. When he consented to talk about his infamous fracas, the first thing I asked was, “Are you braver than you are smart?” Kelleher laughed. “I was at that time.”

“Kingman was with San Diego and the game was in Chicago,” remembers Kelleher. “Bob Shirley was pitching for the Padres and Steve Renko was pitching for the Cubs. Steve was about 6-6, 260. We had a knockdown, drag-out all day long. There were two fights prior to the one I got in with Kingman. People were throwing at each other.

“Kingman came up and Renko hit him in the shoulder. He didn’t charge the mound, he just went to first base. The next guy hit a ball to short and he turned it over to me – I was playing second base – and here was Kingman, coming in, standing straight up. He didn’t slide. He basically came after me. I went to the ground, but then got up and we fought. He’s a big man, but in the heat of battle you kind of lose it. It didn’t matter how big he was, we were going to fight. The next thing I knew we were on the bottom of the pile.

“I ended up with five bruised ribs on the side where he hit me. I had a wrenched neck and a charlie horse. When my feet hit the ground I flipped him over my shoulder and one of his legs landed right on my thigh. I was pretty banged up.”

The ramifications were far different than they would be today. Kelleher and Kingman were the only two players ejected from the game. Both were fined $250 and neither was suspended.

Following the season, Kingman signed with the Cubs as a free agent and the two became teammates. Upon reporting to spring training, Kingman found Kelleher wearing a provocative piece of apparel.

“I had a t-shirt my fan club in Chicago had given me,” explained Kelleher. “It said ‘King Kong Killer.’ His nickname was King Kong and mine has always been Killer. I used to wear the t-shirt around the clubhouse. He wasn’t a real popular guy and we didn’t know each other very well at that point, but I’d go around the locker room wearing the t-shirt. I’d be punching my fist into my other hand. Everybody got a real kick out of that.

“Dave and I ended up becoming friends. We never talked about the fight. It was just something that happened in baseball on that one particular day. That’s the way the game was back then. He never brought it up and I never brought it up. We did joke about the t-shirt, but that was about it.”

Earlier, FOX posted a piece I wrote about hitters who do and don’t see many inside pitches. Since the start of last season, Yasiel Puig has seen more inside pitches than anyone. Andrew McCutchen has been the very opposite, among righties. As far as lefties are concerned, pitchers are more willing to try to blow up Chris Davis and Ryan Howard than they are Chase Utley and David Murphy. It’s simple stuff, but I think it’s interesting stuff, and stuff we don’t get to see very often.

Now, in an outright display of corporate synergy, I thought it’d be useful to look at some similar kinds of data for pitchers, since pitchers represent the other half of the pitcher-batter equation. Consider this a companion article. Which pitchers throw inside the most to righties? Which pitchers throw inside the most to lefties? Which pitchers work down most often, and which pitchers work up most often? Probably, the data doesn’t have many surprises, but probably, the data does have some surprises. So let’s get into some tables.

Read the rest of this entry »

Don’t look now, but the Minnesota Twins lead the major leagues in runs scored per game. The Minnesota Twins — with a line-up featuring the likes of Chris Colabello, Pedro Florimon, Kurt Suzuki, Aaron Hicks, Josmil Pinto, and Trevor Plouffe — are scoring 5.52 runs per game in a month where Joe Mauer has been kind of terrible. On the list of amazing things to happen this April, this has to rank near the very top. And the way they’re scoring runs is perhaps just as surprising.

When you think of organizations that have committed to a patient approach at the plate, you probably think of the Red Sox, Yankees, A’s, and Indians; clubs with long track records of emphasizing on-base percentage and working counts. You probably don’t think of the Twins; over the last three years, Minnesota’s hitters rank just 24th in OBP and are tied for 16th in walk rate. Even with a franchise player like Joe Mauer, taking pitches and getting on base hasn’t really been a point of emphasis for the Twins, and Mauer found himself surrounded by the likes of Ben Revere, Ryan Doumit, Alexi Casilla, and Danny Valencia.

Those four are all gone now, however, and the new Twins don’t look much like the old Twins. Their 12.9% walk rate leads the majors, and their .354 OBP ranks second only to the Colorado Rockies. The Twins are basically walking their way into wins, and it looks like it might very well be be design.

Read the rest of this entry »