I recently dreamed that I hit the comeback trail and was signed to a 10 day contract with a minor league team. With a combination of 77 mph cutters, sub-70’s change-ups, and more than a few knuckle balls, I parlayed my short contract to a major league roster spot. The dream ended, as dreams usually do, but it got me thinking about the minimum talent level necessary to pitch successfully in the majors.

When we analyze pitching talent, we’re mostly referring to a function of velocity, movement, command and control. There is a notable intangible that probably deserves mention. I’ll call it craftiness. Basically, the pitcher’s ability to out-think the hitter. Some pitchers seemingly can outperform the results that we might expect from their  speed, movement, and location alone.

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It wouldn’t be accurate to say that Craig Kimbrel is a rich man, now. But he’s basically guaranteed to become a rich man, soon, and then soon after that, he’ll be richer. His new contract with the Braves is a fascinating one, for reasons…Dave…has probably already illustrated, or probably will soon illustrate. The Braves have made a major commitment to an incredible and seemingly risky reliever, and in so doing they’ve avoided having to take this year-to-year. Kimbrel was in line to set some arbitration records.

For the Braves, and for analysis, what’s most important is what’s likely to happen with Kimbrel down the road. Contracts are forward-looking, and what’s already happened only matters in that it can help one determine a fraction of the future. People want to know what Kimbrel’s likely to be at 26, what he’s likely to be at 30. So much of our time here is spent looking ahead, and that is how it ought to be, but every so often it’s worth acknowledging the past. Worth acknowledging remarkable things that might originally have escaped notice. See, there’s this one thing Craig Kimbrel did.

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Matt Harvey will be as confident as ever when he returns from Tommy John surgery. Not only does he expect to be fully healthy, he’ll be back to where he feels most comfortable. The young New York Mets ace said as much when I spoke to him in January.

The first time I talked to Harvey, he wasn’t yet in his comfort zone. It was April 2012 and he was pitching for Triple-A Buffalo. His big-league debut was still three months away.

At the time, Harvey was chomping at the bit. Questions remained about his readiness, but they weren’t being raised by the right-hander. Harvey told me, “I’d like to think I’m right there. It’s never my decision, but I’m always going to be ready, both mentally and physically.” He went on to say he wouldn’t be intimidated.

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According to legend, Vladimir Guerrero once hit a home run off a pitch that bounced off the ground. According to similar legends, he hit more than one such home run. I haven’t actually been able to find any confirmation, myself, but I’ve been in possession of this alleged memory for years, and Guerrero was the kind of hitter who at least made you believe he was capable of such an extraordinary feat. I’m disinclined to doubt any story about Vladimir Guerrero, and we do, if nothing else, have video evidence of this, a single he hit off the ground against the Orioles in 2009. Guerrero was a free swinger, and a contact swinger, and when you put those two qualities together, you can see some incredible things.

Now, Guerrero last played in the majors in 2011. There’s certainly no one quite like him, and Pablo Sandoval might be the current game’s closest approximation. No one in baseball is capable of doing all the same things Guerrero did, but that doesn’t mean Guerrero’s departure marked the end of hits against pitches that bounce. From time to time, you still see a hitter get lucky after he’s chosen to be overaggressive, and below, let’s walk through all the hits from the 2013 season against pitches that first found the dirt.

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Play the player-profile game every day this week at 1:00pm ET. We’re giving away a free annual subscription to FanGraphs+ to the first reader who guesses correctly the identity of that day’s mystery player. (Limit one copy per customer).

As the absurdly coiffed Eno Sarris announced on Monday, the newest iteration of FanGraphs+ is now available in exchange for your hard-earned money — and any other kind of money, too.

As in recent years, we’re celebrating this important Moment in History by way of the player-profile game.

Said game is easy: the author offers the text of an actual player profile from the newest iteration of FG+, being careful to omit any proper names that might reveal the identity of the player in question. The reader, in turn, attempts to identify the player using only the details provided in the profile.

First reader to guess correctly (in the comments section below) gets a free annual subscription to FanGraphs+, worth roughly the equivalent of Alec Baldwin’s watch in Glengarry Glen Ross.

Today’s entry comes to us by way of the classy, invincible author himself. (Note: a clue will be provided, if necessary, after 50 wrong responses.)

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Today, Julio Teheran joined the ever growing ranks of young players to sign long term deals early in their careers, agreeing to a six year contract with the Braves that guarantees him $32.4 million, according to Ken Rosenthal. Because he has just one year of service time, this deal buys out two remaining pre-arb years, three arbitration seasons, and then his first free agent year, while also giving the Braves an option for a second free agent year at just $12 million.

The easy comparison is the Madison Bumgarner deal signed in April of 2012. Because that deal was completed after opening day, it’s officially only a five year extension, but in reality, it covers the same time period as this deal for Teheran, and could be more accurately described as a six year deal since the extension didn’t kick in for 12 months from the signing date. Bumgarner got $35 million in guaranteed money for those six years, and he gave up two free agent years as team options for $12 million. Teheran got a little less in guaranteed money, but also surrendered one fewer free agent year. Regardless, the two deals are very similar, and there’s little question that the Braves used Bumgarner’s contract as something of a template for this Teheran deal.

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The other day, I got the idea to compare UZR data against data taken from the results of the Fan Scouting Report. Though there are certain things I’d change about the methodology were I to repeat the study, I’m still content with what I found, and I think it’s interesting to look at where the fans and where the numbers don’t see eye-to-eye. For example: Juan Uribe, when he’s playing in the field. The numbers have loved him. The fans have tolerated him. That’s interesting, even if I don’t know exactly why — yet. It might just have to do with the way Uribe looks, but there could be more to it than that.

Anyhow, once I compared and contrasted fans and numbers in the past, I felt the urge to do a similar sort of thing looking forward. FanGraphs hosts a few different projection systems; among them are the Fan projections and the Steamer projections. Soon, we’ll also have full ZiPS data, but we don’t have that uploaded yet. But we can make do with those two. Many fan opinions are in, and all the Steamer evaluations are in. Which players and pitchers do the fans like more? Which players and pitchers do the fans like less? Is there anything we can learn from what we find?

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It’s a simple thing to say, but there’s an important interplay between the swing and the miss when it comes to pitching. In order to get a swinging strike, you need to get the batter to swing and you need to get them to miss. These are, in effect, two different skills, even if the best pitchers are awesome at both. And so it’s not surprising that we have two different metrics for that moment — whiffs per swing (whiff% in some places) and whiffs per pitch or swinging strike rate (swsTR% here). We probably need both. Is one better?

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For the Orioles it’s been an offseason of mostly quiet contemplation, interrupted only by brief attempted dalliances with Grant Balfour and Tyler Colvin. At last, though, they are stirring again, reaching a three-year agreement with Korean righty Suk-min Yoon worth a reported $5.75 million. The contract, like the others were, is pending a physical, so perhaps it would’ve been wiser to hold off on writing this for another few days, but let’s just assume this is going to be official. Let’s assume the Orioles know what they’re getting into.

Yoon’s a risky sort with limited upside, and there are real questions here that’ll be discussed later on. There’s a reasonable chance Yoon never throws quality innings in the bigs, and there are reasons why he’s signed for less than the market rate of one single win. But let’s just get something clear: this is hardly any money, especially given the three-year guarantee. More money this offseason was thrown at Garrett Jones. A similar amount of money was guaranteed to Willie Bloomquist. Michael Morse got more money. Chad Qualls got more money. Edward Mujica got a lot more money, despite ending up last year with shoulder fatigue. It should be recognized that this is a small commitment, with upside more in terms of potential value than potential ability on the pitcher’s part.

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Speculating about how much money it would take to sign Mike Trout to a long term deal has become something of a sport unto itself. Ever since he broke into the big leagues and almost immediately established himself as the best player in baseball, people have wondered aloud about what kind of deal he could command. The fires were stoked even further when the Angels decided to renew his contract for just $510,000 last year, allowing him to rack up another +10 WAR season and get even closer to free agency. Now, with just four years of team control remaining, the Angels are reportedly hoping to get Trout signed to a long term deal that will keep in Anaheim for the foreseeable future.

So, let’s play the Mike Trout Extension Game again. With Freddie Freeman resetting the extension market for players with three years of service time, we have a new data point to work with anyway, and so we probably need to update our prior estimates to reflect the new reality of extension pricing. So let’s work through the numbers and see what we can come up with.

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