Archive for Daily Graphings

The Mets and Twins Should Remember Joakim Soria

Glen Perkins has, somewhat quietly, become a dominating relief pitcher. He currently sits 5th among qualified relievers in FIP (1.84), 4th in xFIP (2.21), and he has 14 shutdowns against just two meltdowns. He’s into advanced statistics and knows what FIP and xFIP are. He’s going to represent the Twins in the All-Star Game next week, the team he grew up watching as a kid in Minnesota. And he’s signed to a well below market contract, one that pays him just $2.5 million this year, $3.75 million for the following two years, and then gives the Twins a $4.5 million option on his 2016 season. Because of all these things — okay, probably not the nerd part — the Twins are reportedly not willing to trade Perkins, as their preference is to keep him while they rebuild a new core of young players around him.

The Mets might do a similar thing with Bobby Parnell. He has also been excellent (2.16 FIP, 3.16 xFIP) since moving into their closer role, and as a 28-year-old under team control via arbitration for the next two seasons, the Mets are apparently disinclined to trade him. Neither team wants to send the message that their rebuilds are going to take years, and both are showing a preference to retain their young, cost controlled assets and simply move older pieces on larger contracts instead.

Here’s the problem. Closers — relief pitchers in general, really — are simply not worth building around. Today’s asset is tomorrow’s liability, and the Twins and Mets should learn from the mistake that the Royals made with Joakim Soria.

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Inside Pitches, and the Batters Who Swung at Them

Here, for maybe the first time in the history of the Internet, is a post inspired by Hernan Perez. Hernan Perez is a professional baseball player, currently for the Detroit Tigers. He has batted a few times, and is 22. Hasn’t been real good in the minors. Might be getting better. A few years ago he was a teammate of Wondy De Los Santos, who is also a professional baseball player, or was. Odds are, you don’t know a lot about Perez, if you’ve even heard of him, but this post isn’t about him. It only starts with him.

The Worst Of The Best is taking a little break, until next week, when we’ll reflect on the entire first half. That’ll be fun, but in the meantime, sometimes people still tip me off on Twitter about particularly wild pitches or swings. Earlier this week, I got a tip about a swing by Hernan Perez. Later, I got another tip from another person about another swing by Hernan Perez, in the same game. That was enough to drive my curiosity, and sure enough, Perez took two really bad swings in a game against the White Sox. One was at a breaking ball in the dirt. One was at a fastball, here:

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Is Selig Preparing To Use The Nuclear Option?

Reports surfaced Tuesday on ESPN.com that Ryan Braun refused to answer questions posed by Major League Baseball’s lawyers when they interviewed him as part of the Biogenesis investigation. Alex Rodriguez is scheduled to be interviewed this Friday and, according to ESPN, also will refuse to answer MLB’s questions. Despite silence from Braun and Rodriguez, MLB apparently plans to suspend the two players — and perhaps 20 others — sometime after the All-Star break. But Braun and Rodriguez have been called out for special punishment: Not only does MLB plan to suspend the pair 50 games for possessing or using a banned substance, the league will reportedly add on another 50 games for lying about their use of banned substances.

ESPN’s report generated lots of questions and commentary. Who leaked this information to ESPN and why? Did MLB leak it to put pressure on Braun and Rodriguez to cooperate? Did Braun or the players’ union leak it to show the league’s heavy handedness? How can the league already have decided to suspend Rodriguez for 100 games before he’s even met with investigators?

But perhaps the most pressing question is: How can a player be suspended for lying when he remained silent in response to questions from MLB’s investigators? And the corollary: If the “lying” didn’t take place during the investigation, does MLB plan to rely on years-old public statements? Wouldn’t that open a huge can of worms? Craig Calcaterra, over at Hardball Talk, had some interesting things to say on these issues:

Last year Melky Cabrera famously — and quite ridiculously — attempted to pass off a phony website as an excuse for his positive PED test. It caused MLB to actually have to conduct an investigation into the phony company, purchase phony products and, at least according to some reports, travel to the Dominican Republic. This, apart from its hilarity, was blatant lying, deception and fraud. And yet, at the end of it, Melky Cabrera was given only a 50-game suspension.

If what Melky Cabrera did wasn’t worthy of double discipline, how on earth could Braun offering denials or, more likely, not saying anything, justify it?

Craig’s comments sent me scurrying back to the Collective Bargaining Agreement and the Joint Drug Policy to see if I could figure out MLB’s 100-game suspension plan. I’ve actually written on this point before, back in June, in my primer on all things Biogenesis. In that post, I pointed to two different “just cause” provisions — one in the CBA and one in the Joint Drug Policy — that MLB would likely rely on.

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Word Going Around on Yasiel Puig

Maybe you haven’t heard quite as much about Yasiel Puig lately. I don’t know, I don’t know who you read and what you watch. But it’s hard for a player to sustain that level of coverage and interest, as Puig seemed to be absolutely everywhere for his first few weeks. Justifiably, of course. But Tuesday was a big day for Puig, in a sense — against the Diamondbacks, he drew two unintentional walks, for the first time in his young career. Previously, he had just four. And in case you thought Puig was slowing down, this month is new but he’s slugged .500. He hasn’t spent a day in the majors with a three-digit OPS. Puig is still excelling, and the Dodgers are still succeeding around him.

About those two walks, though. Walks aren’t as sexy as singles or doubles or triples or dingers or outfield assists, but walks are indicative of some degree of patience, of discipline. There’s reason for the Dodgers to be particularly encouraged by the bases on balls, because Puig is new, and because Puig is new, pitchers are in the process of adjusting to him. Baseball, as we’ve come to learn, is a game of constant adjustments, all career long, but perhaps the biggest adjustments come early on, and there’s word out on Puig. At least, that’s what the numbers are saying. Puig hasn’t stopped hitting, but pitchers have changed the way they attack.

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LINK: Ryan Spilborghs Talks PEDs

There are a lot of opinions about the use of performance enhancing drugs in Major League Baseball. The BioGenesis reports have put those opinions back front and center, and if you want sensationalized outrage, you don’t have to look very far to find it. That’s why I’m linking to this piece in the Denver Post by former Rockies outfielder Ryan Spilborghs.

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Jeff Samardzija On the Evolution of His Pitches

Although Jeff Samardzija is dealing these days, and was a fifth-round pick who scored a major league deal when he was drafted in 2006, baseball wasn’t easy for  in those in-between years. He walked too many batters in the minors, and it only got worse when he hit the bigs. He could have been forgiven for a little despair. But he opted for evolution instead, working on each of his pitches to find the combination that has led him to where he is now: a top-25 pitcher by WAR with a top-10 strikeout rate among qualified pitchers.

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The Matt Garza/Matt Harvey Connection

You’re going to be reading a lot about Matt Garza, if you haven’t already. This being July, it’s officially trading season, and Garza is probably the best starting pitcher on the market. So, rumors. Let me try to distill what I’ve seen: there’s talk the Cubs might reverse course and sign Garza to a long-term extension, but that probably won’t happen, and Garza will probably be dealt, probably soon. The free-agent-to-be has been scouted by just about everyone with an interest in pitching, because scouting is cheap. Garza’s going to be in demand, and he’s allowed five runs over his last five starts.

Among his opponents over that five-start stretch: the Astros, the Mets, and the White Sox. The Cubs would like to pitch Garza as a top-of-the-rotation ace, but that’s not the right label. By ERA-, he’s been as good as Mat Latos, but by FIP- he matches Scott Feldman, and by xFIP- he matches Yovani Gallardo. Over the rest of the season, ZiPS projects Garza to pitch similarly to Ricky Nolasco and Edwin Jackson. This has all been Matt Garza in a nutshell: he’s a good pitcher and an available pitcher, but he’s a three-month pitcher who isn’t worth torching the farm. He’s unlikely to be a guy who saves a season.

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Tewksbury’s Notebook: Notes on the 1992 Cubs

Bob Tewksbury had a lot of success in 1992. Pitching for the St. Louis Cardinals, the right-hander went 16-5 with a 2.16 ERA. A control artist, he walked 20 batters in 233 innings.

He had less success against the Chicago Cubs. In five starts, he allowed 18 runs — 14 of them earned — in 34 innings. Andre Dawson, Mark Grace and Ryne Sandberg went a combined 26 for 65, with 10 extra-base hits, against him.

Tewksbury knows why he struggled against the Cubs, and why he had success against the rest of the National League. The internet age was still a few years away, but notebooks weren’t. Tewksbury logged scouting and statistical information after every game he pitched.

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Jonathan Papelbon: Buyer Beware

Peter Gammons, as he so often does, teased an interesting tidbit yesterday morning, this one concerning Philliers closer Jonathan Papelbon. To wit:

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Bartolo Colon’s Biggest Misses

Bartolo Colon was strong again Monday night, as the A’s knocked off the host Pirates 2-1. Of his 108 pitches, 78 were strikes. He walked one batter out of the 30 he faced. As a consequence, Colon’s season walk rate went up.

Colon, maybe, doesn’t have the best command of any starting pitcher — but it’s close, and that much is something of a miracle, considering where Colon went and how he came back. Colon basically throws a ton of fastballs — his rate is the same as Aroldis Chapman’s — and only Cliff Lee has thrown a higher rate of strikes. Few pitchers have thrown a higher rate of first-pitch strikes. Colon’s walk rate is a tick above 3%, and no one’s thrown a higher rate of pitches in the zone. Though Colon’s far from unhittable, he succeeds by pounding the zone relentlessly and he  forces the batter to supply the damage. It might be a simple formula, but Colon makes it work, thanks to his command of his pitches.

So I thought we’d look at his wildest pitches. Sometimes a technique to examine a guy’s success can be by looking at his failures. Which has been Colon’s lowest pitch of the season? What about his highest? What about most inside and most outside? What, if anything, can we learn from these pitches? I’ll admit, I’m kind of going into this blind, but I have confidence we can learn something. So let’s pay tribute to Colon’s ability to throw strikes by looking at him throw some balls.

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