Luis Valbuena struggles against fastballs, and is Michael-Jackson-bad against all other pitches. In an alternate world in which the Cubs actually cared about the difference between 61 and 65 wins, Luis Valbuena does not get 303 plate appearances last season. But in this world, where the Cubs are suppressing arbitration clocks and dropping bench players into starting roles, Luis Valbuena gets 303 PA. Barring something magical, do not put Luis Valbuena on your fantasy team in 2013.

That was me. I wrote that very review of Cubs third baseman Luis Valbuena for his 2013 FanGraphs+ fantasy profile. At the time, Luis Valbuena had a career .224/.292/.343 slash and a 73 wRC+. On the merit of some impressive defensive output in 2012, he had managed to increase his career WAR to a sterling -0.3 wins through 1109 PA.

Nothing outside of some solid PCL numbers suggested Valbuena could be a solid third baseman in 2013. So far, I’ve been quite wrong.
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Joey Votto didn’t pop up on Monday. Of course he didn’t. It’s not because he didn’t play — he did play, and he batted four times. The first time, he grounded out. He’s human. The second time, he singled on a liner. He’s a talented human. The third time, he flew out. He’s still human. The fourth time, he walked. He’s human, but less so than us. I remember, back in the old days, I was excited to get my hands on line-drive percentage. Batted-ball data! Could you imagine! Since then, I’ve taken a big step back, since LD% has seemed littered with flaws. One flaw is that Joey Votto’s career LD% isn’t 80%. There’s no way that’s correct.

Pick something there’s been one of this year. There have been more Astros sweeps of the Angels this year than there have been Joey Votto infield pop-ups. There have been more Travis Wood grand slams this year than there have been Joey Votto pop-ups. There have been more Jesus Montero triples this year than there have been Joey Votto pop-ups. There have been more home runs ruled non-home runs then reviewed on instant replay and still somehow ruled non-home runs this year than there have been Joey Votto pop-ups. That is, according to the data we have here on FanGraphs. Votto’s historically been unbelievable in his pop-up avoidance, and the pages will tell you his 2013 total is a big empty zero. We’re getting into the middle of June. Vernon Wells has hit 17 pop-ups, and Votto’s still sitting at none.

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Major League Baseball has stepped up its investigation of Biogenesis, the now-defunct anti-aging clinic that reportedly provided performing enhancing drugs to many MLB players. According to an ESPN news report last week, MLB has secured the cooperation of former Biogenesis director Anthony Bosch and plans to rely on Bosch’s testimony and documents as a basis for suspending more than a dozen players for violations of the league’s Joint Drug Policy.

There’s been a great deal of hue and cry over MLB’s deal with Bosch and with good reason. Our colleague Jonah Keri, writing at Grantland the day after ESPN’s report, raised important questions about Bosch’s credibility and the scope of MLB’s proposed action. [Disclosure: I was on vacation last week, but assisted Jonah on his post, as he noted.] Others have defended MLB’s plan to rid the sport of PEDs “once and for all.” As with most discussions about PEDs and baseball, there’s a lot of disagreement, accented by rage (faux or not) and hyperbole.

If you’re familiar with my writing, you know I’m not one to shy away from a healthy argument. But arguments are strongest when backed by verifiable facts. Such was the lesson of my legal training and experience. So before we get too far down the road in deriding or defending MLB’s conduct, let’s take some time to parse through the facts.

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The St. Louis Cardinals, to date, have been the best team in baseball, at least in terms of getting wins and avoiding losses. It’s not surprising, in that the Cardinals have proven themselves to be something of a powerhouse, but it is surprising given some of their injuries. The Cardinals have the best record in the National League by two games. They have the best run differential in the NL by 32 runs. A big part of the explanation is pure talent. The Cardinals have talented players. There’s also the matter of timing. At the plate, with the bases empty, the Cardinals own an 86 wRC+, good for 24th and sandwiched between the Mariners and the Pirates. With man or men in scoring position, they own a 140 wRC+, good for first by a mile. The Cardinals have scored 35% of their baserunners, and that’s tops in all of baseball.

This didn’t escape Buster Olney’s attention. Olney has written and tweeted about the Cardinals’ ability to drive runners home, noting that they have the highest team OBP with runners in scoring position since at least 1974. A lot of this came up Sunday night, and a lot of the response, as you can imagine, is that the Cardinals have been lucky. Olney wasn’t buying this argument, and you shouldn’t buy it, either. “Luck” — what we’re dealing with here isn’t luck.

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Ike Davis homered in the season’s second game. He homered twice a couple weeks later, then he homered again a week after that. That makes it sound like Davis hit a flurry of home runs, which he didn’t. He hit four over a handful of weeks. But then, after going deep on April 25, he didn’t go deep again until the beginning of June. On June 2, Davis took Kevin Slowey deep to center in Miami, and Ron Darling chimed in innocently enough:

Well let’s see if that can get Ike going.

Davis singled in his next at-bat. Then he went 1-for-14. Finally, after weeks of speculation and strong denial and halfhearted denial, the Mets gave Davis a demotion to Triple-A, his OPS standing at an even .500. It’s been Davis’ contention that he can’t learn to hit major-league pitchers in the minor leagues. The Mets, though, would like to see him at least hit minor-league pitchers. They’d like to see him at least hit someone.

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It’s hard to find a good, stable middle infield combination, especially offensively, since so many players at those positions are defensive specialists who are happy to see a blooper fall in occasionally. When a team like the Padres puts together a good middle infield combo seemingly overnight, it’s definitely worthy of mention. In shortstop Everth Cabrera and second baseman Jedd Gyorko, San Diego may have one of the game’s most surprisingly effective middle infield duos.

If we were to focus only on 2013 performance as a marker of overall ability, then we’d be forced to note that only 11 teams have qualified players at each position. We don’t want to knock out the other 19 teams for not having qualifiers, but there are some we can eliminate right off the bat. Four teams — the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mariners and Marlins — don’t have a qualified player at either position. Perhaps — in another year — the combo of Jose Reyes and Maicer Izturis will merit mention, but not now. The same goes for Robinson Cano and Derek Jeter with the Yankees, as they won’t get enough playing time out of Jeter to merit consideration this season.

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Yasiel Puig has been in the Major Leagues for a week. In the seven days since he was called up from Double-A, he’s hit as many home runs as Andre Ethier has all season. He’s already doubled Matt Kemp’s 2013 home run total. He ended his first game in the majors by starting a double play, throwing a laser from right field to nail a runner retreating to first on a long fly ball. Puig-mania is in full effect, and needless to say, he’s not going back to the minor leagues no matter how many Dodgers outfielders eventually return from the DL.

It’s hard not to get caught up in the excitement. If you’ve missed his absurd debut, MLB.com has an embeddable five minute video of his early accomplishments, so you can relive the glory of Yasiel Puig’s incredible first week below. Read the rest of this entry »

We are a little more than two months into the season, and that means it’s time to check on early season velocity trends. As I’ve mentioned before, declines in velocity are a less reliable signal in April and May than in June and July, but nevertheless large declines can still be a solid predictor that a pitcher’s velocity has in fact truly declined and will remain lower at season’s end. Almost 40% of pitchers that experience a decline in April — and almost 50% in May — will finish the season down at least 1 mph. And while the signal gets much stronger in July, 40% is still a pretty sizable number.

So let’s take a quick look at the major decliners from April and May.

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Lance Berkman has numbers worthy of the Hall of Fame. The longtime Houston Astro — and current Texas Ranger — boasts a career slash line of .295/.408/.540. His post-season rate stats — accumulated in 52 games — are even better.

Berkman isn’t the boastful type. The 37-year-old switch-hitter acknowledges his accomplishments, but in a humble and understated manner that mirrors his legacy. Had he spent his career in a large media market — and not been overshadowed by Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio — his fame would be far greater. As for a plaque in Cooperstown, he will merit serious consideration once his playing days are over.

Berkman talked about his evolution as a hitter — and the relative value of OPS and RBIs — when the Rangers visited Fenway Park earlier this month. Read the rest of this entry »

Hello there, children, we are all children. From one child to another, I would like to welcome you to the second part of the ninth edition of The Worst Of The Best. Found here is the second part of the eighth edition, from last Friday. Found here is every post in the category, from the beginning to the present. Right now, this post isn’t in that section, as I write it. Right now, this post is in that section, as you read it. So, the section has changed, the section has grown. Does that mean the section is alive? According to some definitions, yes, and according to other definitions, no, the section does not possess life, that’s ridiculous. I am pleased to answer this question for you.

Earlier this Friday, we examined the wildest pitches from the past week, and now we’ll examine the wildest swings, between May 31 and June 6. Just as the wildest pitches are the pitches furthest from the center of the strike zone, the wildest swings are those swings at pitches furthest from the center of the strike zone. It seems this past week was a little less wild than usual, but that doesn’t mean we don’t still have a top-five list of hitters looking like idiots, based on the PITCHf/x data and of course their own on-field actions. There are no checked swings, and there are no swings during hit-and-runs. Those swings don’t count and that’s the last word. Incidentally, two weeks ago I provided two bonuses. Last week, there was one bonus. This week, zero bonuses. What have we learned about bonuses? They are bonuses, and by definition they are not usual. Don’t be greedy. Now please enjoy this list, at no charge to you.

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