Archive for Daily Graphings

Henry Owens‘ final start of 2012 was a scoreless one. In five innings, the 20-year-old struck out four, allowed eight base runners and a number of hard-hit balls. Minus a run or two, it was a typical start for the left-hander.

This off-season, the chatter on Owens has been less polarizing than expected. Yes, a 3.49 FIP and 11.51 K/9 is impressive. However, his 4.16 BB/9, .350 BABIP and low ground-ball percentage are all troublesome. Owens presented similar to his stat line during a September scouting trip to Greenville, South Carolina.

Video after the jump

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The Tampa Bay Rays used to be the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays used to have a player named Bobby Smith. On August 24, 1999, in a game against the Chicago White Sox started by Jim Parque, Smith finished 0-for-4, striking out looking four times. To get more recent — just last June 14, in a game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Texas Rangers, Justin Upton finished 2-for-5, striking out looking three times. Many strikeouts are called, but most strikeouts are not. This is something you knew, even if this isn’t something you knew.

Last year, Jerry Sands got into nine games, batting 24 times. He struck out nine times, and he struck out looking four times. Last year, Delmon Young got into 151 games, batting 608 times. He struck out 112 times, and he struck out looking four times. Of Delmon Young’s strikeouts, 4% were called strikeouts. No regular or semi-regular player posted a lower rate of called strikeouts.

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Here at FanGraphs, you are treated with a smorgasbord of baseballery. From research on aging curves to in-depth mustache analysis, the pages are filled with the base and ball dreams of a true diamond-level nerd.

And so it’s true of our premium product that all the different parts of baseball are represented. Ostensibly, the ‘annual’ portion of FanGraphs+ is fantasy-baseball-centered, but that doesn’t mean that your average non-roto baseball lover won’t find something to enjoy. Take Dan Wade’s investigation into reaching on error as a skill. Or Jeff Zimmerman looking at adjustment times for position players switching leagues. Hey, even if you hate closers, you might be interested in Jack Moore’s attempt to predict closer changes with a stat found on our leaderboards. And with the purchase of FanGraphs+, you’ll also get free access to the analysis we provide ESPNInsider on a weekly basis.

NotGraphs? Our staff painstakingly produced 1113 player caps. There are only 750 players on opening day rosters, and even with our near-200 prospect caps — which, by the way, are full of observations from Marc Hulet, Mike Newman, Jason Catania, J.D. Sussman and others — that leaves almost 200 players that probably shouldn’t get a player cap. Enter the wit of our glorious Notters, who will leave little nuggets of laughter for you on the unexpected player page. You’ll leave with a smile on your face and a question in your heart: Why was I looking at Vincente Padilla’s player page anyway?

And yes, it’s also a fantasy product. Later this week, we’ll give you Auction Values on the projections leaderboards. Chad Young already gave ottoneu players auction values for all scoring settings. Between Michael Barr, Mike Podhorzer and I, you’re set in preparing for your draft, no matter what style it is. And then there are the rookies! Marc Hulet gets the top-notch ones, Carson Cistulli rummages through the bargain bin, and Chris Cwik tells you why you shouldn’t care about any of them.

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On Friday, ESPN.com’s lead baseball story was title “Let’s Corral the WAR Horse,” and the image used in the rotation feature box was simply a white sign with the words “NO WAR” attached to a stick, presumably a stock image of a sign from an anti-violence protest. In the piece, Jim Caple — a writer I like, have spent a little bit of time with, and who is a pretty good advocate for logical thinking, by the way — explained why he’s a little frustrated with what he perceives as an over reliance on WAR as the stat’s popularity grows.

Quoting Caple:

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You’re familiar with the story of Adam Greenberg, even if you’d completely forgotten about it until just now. Greenberg made his major-league debut in 2005, and he was hit in the head by the very first pitch that he saw. Greenberg sustained a concussion, and until 2012, that represented the entirety of his big-league career. Eventually, there was a petition to get Greenberg another major-league at bat. The Marlins signed Greenberg to a contract toward the end of 2012, because if there’s one baseball organization that badly wants people to like it, it’s the Miami Marlins. The friendly, lovable, PR-conscious Miami Marlins.

With the Marlins, Greenberg doubled his career playing time. On the one hand, it was a great gesture on the Marlins’ part, as they signed Greenberg and allowed him to pinch-hit in a home game on October 2. On the other hand, it was an awful gesture on the Marlins’ part, as they forced a cold and unprepared Greenberg to pinch-hit against the eventual NL Cy Young winner before thousands upon thousands of viewers in person and on TV. In his second big-league plate appearance, Adam Greenberg faced one of baseball’s best-ever knuckleballs. The results were predictable.

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Every year, around this time, players advertise themselves as being in the best shape of their lives, either because their offseason conditioning regimens improved, or because previously they were lazy. I think the players are almost always being sincere — they probably, genuinely, feel great — but as fans, we identify this as a cliche, and we generally dismiss it. For one thing, we hear this claim entirely too often. For another, it’s never been demonstrated that there’s a relationship between best shape and on-field success. Or, if you prefer, on-field improvement. It’s been studied, albeit not exhaustively so.

There’s something particular I want to examine, though, and it has to do with Jhonny Peralta. This is an article about Peralta from Friday morning. Within:

Fewer pounds would be preferable, they told him, as he headed home for the winter. He got the message and lost 18.

“It’s good,” Peralta said. “I’ve never been at this weight since I’ve been with Detroit. I finished last season at 236. I’m at 218 now.”

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When MLB.com released its top-100 prospect list, I was excited to see shortstop Luis Sardinas included at number 84. As my eyes scrolled from left-to-right across the page, a second Hickory Crawdads player ranked 88th. His name? Jorge Alfaro. The 19-year old ranked fifth on my list of best catchers scouted in 2012 behind a quartet of current and former top-100 players.

Video after the jump

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After a third consecutive All-Star season, Adrian Beltre’s Hall of Fame path is becoming clear. Over those three All-Star campaigns, Beltre has added 96 home runs, 309 RBI and 1,820 plate appearances of an astounding .314/.353/.558 (138 wRC+) line. His 19.0 WAR over those three seasons pushed his career total up to 62.5; he’s already a borderline Hall of Famer purely by WAR (or JAWS, which already rates him the 12th-best third baseman of all time).

But I don’t think Beltre is in quite yet — it is the Hall of Fame, after all, and perception matters. His entire career in Seattle was a dud at the plate — he hit just .266/.317/.442 in his five years as a Mariner, and they came in what should have been peak seasons (ages 26 through 30). Overall, he only has four truly standout offensive seasons — his last three and his Bonds-esque 48 home run campaign in his walk year as a Dodger in 2004. Beltre’s consistently exceptional defense is what pushes him into the Hall of Fame conversation, so he would need the Brooks Robinson (just a 105 wRC+ but the unassailable glove) treatment to gain entry if his career were already finished.

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Allow me to try to simplify the sabermetric revolution as much as I can:

Late 20th Century: we are evaluating baseball players
Early 21st Century: we were so wrong about our baseball player evaluation!
Less Early 21st Century: we were so wrong about our baseball player evaluation, again!

First, there were players, then there were numbers. Then there were better numbers, then there were still better numbers. The numbers will only continue to improve with time, and a lot of the things we currently think we know about baseball will probably end up being at least partially untrue. Keep that in mind next time you express a particularly strong opinion. But anyway.

Several years ago, people started to care an awful lot about on-base percentage and offensive productivity. This was warranted, because it is important to get on base and be offensively productive. A little later on, people started to care an awful lot about defense. Turns out some of those OBP-happy sluggers were subtracting runs almost as fast as they were adding them. Whoopsadoodle.

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As Dave Cameron wrote two days ago, multiple reports have emerged about numerous baseball players connected to a clinic in South Florida that dispensed performance-enhancing drugs and has been nicknamed “BALCO East.”

Of course, as Cameron notes, “Rodriguez is going to get the most attention, because he’s Alex Rodriguez.” The Yankees are reportedly exploring all avenues to void the last five years and $114 million of his contract. But this is an interesting case, because, if they succeed, this would be the first time an active player would be successfully punished based on news reports.
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