Archive for Daily Graphings

Recently, it was reported on a great number of occasions that the Angels had strong interest in free-agent Brandon McCarthy. The Angels wound up giving two years and $15 million to Joe Blanton, seemingly pulling them out of the running. Today, McCarthy has signed a very similar contract — one worth $15.5 million over two years, with the Diamondbacks. This is more or less the contract McCarthy was destined to end up with, and Arizona is the lucky team that gets to give it to him. This being FanGraphs, of course we’re somewhat biased where McCarthy is concerned, but it’s not bias that makes this look like a potential steal, and a probable bargain.

Let’s ignore the contract breakdown and just look at the overall figures. For two years and $15.5 million, the average team would be looking to add, what, three wins over replacement? A little bit more than that? Yes, pitcher WAR has its issues, and yes, of course not every team looks to spend the same amount of money per win on the free-agent market. Efficiency is more important for some than for others. But a $15.5-million contract over two years is not a hefty contract, and you’d expect only so much of a return. McCarthy is positioned to give a better return.

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Yesterday, the Chicago White Sox warmed the cockles of the present author’s heart by taking 29-year-old infield-type Angel Sanchez from the Angels in the Rule 5 draft. Because Sanchez can play the infield (including shortstop) and because he has some kind of offensive upside (owing to his excellent contact skills) and because he’s cheap (he still has just two years of service time and will likely make the league minimum), Sanchez will allow the White Sox to spend money elsewhere. Or, otherwise, to not spend money elsewhere and just keep that money and use it for whatever, like for a donation to an important New England boarding school.

Players who are chosen in the major-league phase of the Rule 5 draft (as was Sanchez) must be kept on the selecting team’s 25-man major league roster for the entire season after the draft — which suggests, if he’s retained by the White Sox, that Sanchez will fill some manner of utility role behind Gordon Beckham, Jeff Keppinger, and Alexei Ramirez.

Paying a player like Sanchez at or near the league-minimum salary would seem to give the signing time a competitive advantage. It’s also possible that that’s not the case at all. What the author found himself wondering — and what he attempted to answer by means of this post — is the question: “How much are utility infielders worth these days?”

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The Reds have been looking for a consistent leadoff hitter since the current iteration of the team began contention in 2010. Drew Stubbs was supposed to fill that role, but his performance has trended the wrong way since 2009 — after a sharp 105 wRC+ in 2010, Stubbs has posted marks of 90 and a brutal 64 in 2011 and 2012 respectively. Between Stubbs and Zack Cozart, Reds leadoff hitters hit an awful .208/.254/.327 last season.

Now, the Reds are looking to fill the two holes Stubbs’s decline has left them with — leadoff hitter and center field. The club was interested in Ben Revere but the Phillies beat them to the punch. CBSSports.com’s Danny Knobler reports the Reds are shifting their sights towards Rockies outfielder Dexter Fowler.

Knobler reports starting pitcher Mike Leake may be the cost for Fowler. Homer Bailey’s name has popped up as well. Is Fowler enough of an upgrade over Stubbs for the Reds to deal away one of their MLB-ready starting pitchers?

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To a certain extent, it seems like almost the entire market is waiting on free-agent starter Zack Greinke to make a decision. Greinke seems to be choosing between the Dodgers and the Rangers. If Greinke goes to LA, Texas might turn its attention to Josh Hamilton. If Greinke goes to Texas, Hamilton will end up elsewhere. As Greinke makes his decision, Hamilton makes his decision, and then things become clearer for Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, Justin Upton, and so on and so forth. Greinke needs to choose an employer before the rest of the big-ticket acquisitions can identify their own.

As we’ve talked about, Greinke’s the available free-agent ace, so long as your definition of “ace” isn’t “Justin Verlander or above”. He’s going to get paid accordingly by someone, with a shot at beating the CC Sabathia contract. Being that Greinke is exceptionally talented and still not very old, the appeal is obvious. He’s ready to help in the regular season and he’s ready to help in the playoffs. There is a thing about Greinke, though, that’s worth exploring in greater depth than we have.

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The Phillies have a hole at third base, and Michael Young is a man without a position in Texas. These two problems look to be coalescing into a trade between the Rangers and Phillies, where Texas would ship Young to Philadelphia in order to give him the chance to have a regular gig again, and they’d receive a little bit of salary relief in the process. The Rangers would still be on the hook for $10 million of the $16 million he’s due in 2013, a natural response to the fact that Young was Major League Baseball’s worst regular player in 2012, but they’d free up a roster spot, save a bit of money, and give one of the franchise’s most popular players a chance to keep his career going in a new city. From that perspective, the deal makes a world of sense for Texas.

But, despite Young’s dismal 2012 season, I like this deal for the Phillies as well. As I noted on ESPN Insider yesterday, there’s a decent list of recent performers who have apparently fallen apart in their mid-30s, only to rebound the next season and regain most of their pre-faceplant production. While Young was genuinely terrible last year, we also need to keep in mind that single year performance isn’t the best indicator of future performance, and any decent projection should be informed by his success prior to 2012 as well as his failure last year.

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This was written in December, but with recent stories surrounding Rodriguez, we’ve pushed it back to the front page for reference.

After his monster MVP season in 2007, Alex Rodriguez signed a new 10-year deal with the Yankees for $275 million, plus an additional $30 million in marketing incentives linked to home-run milestones. So far, the Yankees have paid Rodriguez $161 million, leaving $114 million on the contract. That breaks down to $28 million for 2013, $25 million for 2014, $21 million for 2015 and $20 million in 2016 and 2017.

This week, we learned A-Rod will undergo left-hip surgery surgery in January to repair a torn labrum, a bone impingement and a cyst. The surgery is being delayed to give Rodriguez time for physical therapy to strengthen the hip. Recovery time is estimated at four to six months, which means a return to the Yankees lineup in June — at the earliest.

But what if A-Rod’s recovery doesn’t go as planned? What if the surgery isn’t successful? What if A-Rod doesn’t recuperate as quickly as expected? What if A-Rod doesn’t play in 2013? What if his career is over?

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The Washington Nationals system has been weakened by trades and promotions in recent years but the organization still has some interesting prospects in the system. With that said, the depth in the upper levels of the system took a big hit during the Rule 5 draft when prospects Jeff Kobernus (6th overall) and Daniel Rosenbaum (8th) were selected from the system. It was a curious move to leave those two players unprotected, given that the organization is not exactly overflowing with near-MLB-ready players. The loss of Kobernus and Rosenbaum were done after the Nationals Top 15 list was submitted so I’ll update the list a little later on.

#1 Brian Goodwin (OF)

Opening Day Age: 22
2012 Level: A/AA
Acquired: 2011 draft (34th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: AA/AAA

Goodwin, 22, flashed a lot of potential during his amateur career but it’s taken some time for his tools to start clicking on the field. The former 34th-overall selection spent 2012 playing at two levels and completely dominated A-ball before skipping over high-A for double-A where he struggled.

A talent evaluator I spoke with wasn’t worried about the outfielder’s difficulties in double-A. “He’s got a very, very interesting ceiling. [Goodwin] hits for average, power and has defensive skills,” he said. “He’s a wonderful young man… the make-up matches the ability. He’s very coachable, and a quick learner.” The contact added that Goodwin is also energetic and a hard worker. “His disposition is always the same whether he goes 4-for-4 or 0-for-4.” Read the rest of this entry »

It’s rare to see so much offseason activity related to a premium position like centerfield, especially this early in the offseason. The market was always considered deep, but it has been surprising to see an equal number of trades as free agent signings. With two upper echelon free agents remaining and a few intriguing trade targets conceivably on the block this centerfield carousel has been a terrifically fun offseason storyline.

Whether due to an outfield logjam, an unwillingness to dole out extremely lucrative deals or simply an opportunity to improve at a premium position, a number of teams have been very active with centerfielders. The swift nature of many of these transactions was somewhat unexpected as, with so many talented players available, it stood to reason that the surplus would allow teams to wait and effectively force down asking prices. Instead, seven centerfielders have already found new homes, and at least one of them was never really considered a legitimate trade target.

Through the various signings and trades, Michael Bourn is still on the market. Though he is the best overall player available at the position, his case is an interesting one, as his number of potential suitors has dwindled and legitimate alternatives remain. While a big contract hasn’t been ruled out, it’s starting to look like he won’t get near what he expected, even though he’ll likely provide more value at the position than anyone else.

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This year was a rather light year for Rule 5 prospects in terms of players I’ve seen in person, but a handful of players taken were worth mentioning.

MLB Phase

Chris McGuiness, Cleveland Indians

A fine organizational piece, I saw McGuiness in 2010 as a member of the Greenville Red Sox. At the time, he presented as a solid, all-around hitter with no stand out tool and limited defensive upside. Soon after, he was dealt to the Rangers and spent two-plus years with that organization. At 24, his Double-A power numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, but the Indians really have no answer at first base. Might as well throw him in the mix with a number of former top prospects and see how things shake out. As with most Rule 5 draft picks, it’s a no lose proposition for the Indians. For McGuiness, this is what the Rule 5 draft is for. With Mitch Moreland already producing league average offense at first base and Mike Olt looking for an opening, he really had no shot at surfacing with the Rangers. Read the rest of this entry »

krem·lin·ol·o·gy, noun
Trying to guess or infer what things people say and do really mean, as opposed to what they seem to mean; after the Kremlin, the seat of Soviet power, the actions of whose leaders western powers struggled to interpret during the Cold War
Macmillan Open Dictionary

When asked if he had met with Hamilton, who is believed to be in the Nashville area this week, Amaro said, “No. But I wouldn’t tell you if I did.” When asked if he had met with Hamilton’s agent, Michael Moye, Amaro again said, “No. But I wouldn’t tell you if I did.”
The Philadelphia Inquirer, Dec. 5

During hot stove season, it’s easy to get excited about a team’s possible acquisitions, especially during Winter Meetings week. But it’s hard to know what to believe. If an executive says that he is interested in a particular player, or that he is not interested in trading a particular prospect, does that mean anything? How do we read between the lines?
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