Archive for Daily Graphings

I don’t think it’s fair to say that errors have been forgotten, necessarily. Errors are still a big part of the game, they’re obvious when they happen, and they get factored into our advanced defensive metrics. But as those same advanced defensive metrics have grown in popularity, so has an emphasis on the importance of range. Evaluation of defense has shifted from looking at errors to looking at range, because errors are frequently flukes, and range is a more critical, informative component. If you can cover more ground, you can make more plays, and you can be a better defender at your position. Range is the thing. Errors are not so much the thing, anymore.

But though errors aren’t often discussed these days, they should be given their due, because they happen, and because sometimes they happen at most unfortunate times. Just the other day Matt Klaassen highlighted two meaningful errors in particular, committed by Brandon League and Carlos Pena. Both of those were recorded as reached-on-errors (ROE). According to Baseball-Reference, last season there were 1,781 ROEs in all. For the sake of comparison, last season there were 927 triples and 1,479 sacrifice bunts. We should discuss those ROEs just a little bit, because somebody ought to.

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Earlier this week I posted about the Best Bunts of 2012 according to Win Probability Added (WPA). Nothing like that is really complete, however, without talking about the worst. So here, divided into some rather arbitrary categories, are some of the worst bunts of 2012.

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Brandon McCarthy is a popular guy in sabermetric circles. He’s a good pitcher who reads FanGraphs and looks at PITCHF/x data, and in his spare time, interacts with fans on Twitter. McCarthy’s also a free agent this winter, and his ability to throw strikes and get hitters out is going to make him a popular guy with teams looking to upgrade their rotation as well.

Outbidding everyone for the popular guy doesn’t always lead to great results, though, and there are teams who will be looking for a rotation upgrade who won’t be able to afford McCarthy. So, to those teams, I present Scott Feldman, a free agent starter with none of the publicity who might be able to do a pretty decent impression of McCarthy next year.

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Seeing prospects in person is my passion. In 2012, I was fortunate enough to visit parks in five different leagues — collecting information and video on 200 legitimate prospects or more. The lists released over the next few weeks will highlight the best prospects I’ve seen in person at each position during the 2012 season. The rankings will be adjusted based on projected position at the major league level, not present position (in italics if ranking includes position shift). After writing the first three lists, I realized there’s really no way to keep statistical information out of the equation completely and focus on scouting/projection alone. This has caused me to hedge my bets a bit on high ceiling talents and focus more on the complete player. Additionally, understand this is not meant to be a complete list of the best prospects at each position across all of Minor League Baseball, but the best of what I’ve seen.

Previous Rankings:
The Catchers
The First Basemen
The Second Basemen
The Third Basemen
The Shortstops
The Corner Outfielders

1. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins Read the rest of this entry »

The Indians might be shopping some of their players. The newest rumor has the Red Sox interested in Shin-Soo Choo, whom the Indians have under team control for one more year of arbitration. Assuming the team won’t be in contention for the division title next year — they haven’t had a winning season since 2007 and, in related news, their starting staff has the second-worst FIP in the American League since that year — he seems to be an ideal player to trade away. Except for the fact that he owns a spotty track record and his value has been all over the place.

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Just last season, Maicer Izturis wrapped up a three-year, $10-million contract. On Thursday, Maicer Izturis signed a three-year, $9-million contract. There’s also a fourth-year option — worth $3 million — for one of the very newest Toronto Blue Jays. Maybe that isn’t enough of a hook. Maybe this will make for a better hook.

It’s the first multiyear contract that Anthopoulos has guaranteed to a free agent since becoming general manager in the fall of 2009. The biggest handout prior to Izturis occurred last offseason, when the Blue Jays signed lefty Darren Oliver to a one-year, $4.5 million deal.

Under Alex Anthopoulos, the Blue Jays’ biggest free-agent investments have been Darren Oliver and Maicer Izturis. Granted, free agency is not the only means by which one may construct a major-league roster. On the other hand, Darren Oliver and Maicer Izturis. This is one of those things that’s funny if you think about it for five seconds and a lot less funny if you think about it for five minutes.

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Bottom of the second inning, and as Upton walked toward the plate, he might have noticed that no one was referring to him as the future anymore…

It wasn’t much of a crowd, and therefore it wasn’t much of a heckle, but what it lacked in long and loud, it made up for in short and sweet. This was the sound of a crowd protesting spoiled brats and mouthy prospects and unpaid dues.
— August 2, 2006, Saint Petersburg Times

There’s no way around it: B.J. Upton and Justin Upton have disappointed. That is a true statement, even though it’s just as true that much of the criticism hasn’t been fair. They’ve both been booed by their home crowds and dangled endlessly on the trade market. And though B.J. is just 28 and Justin is just 25, it seems like they’ve been around forever, ever since B.J. signed for $4.6 million as the second overall pick in 2002, and Justin signed for $6.1 million as the first overall pick in 2005.
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R.A. Dickey was just recently announced as a finalist for the 2012 National League Cy Young Award. Depending on who you ask, he might well be the favorite to win. R.A. Dickey was just earlier Thursday reported to be the subject of trade conversations. Joel Sherman talked about it, Ken Rosenthal talked about it, and others have talked about it. Right now team executives are all hanging out in the same place, and the Mets are gauging the trade value of maybe the league’s best starting pitcher. It probably goes without saying that this is an unusual situation.

For those who haven’t been following, what makes this more unusual is that there were just reports that the Mets and Dickey had made progress in contract extension negotiations. Dickey’s locked up for just one more year, and he’s interested in returning, while the Mets are interested in having him return. It’s all just a matter of price, as it pretty much always is. At present, Dickey wants more than the Mets are willing to give, which is obviously why they haven’t reached an agreement.

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Stop me if you’ve heard this before; the Diamondbacks are listening to offers for Justin Upton again. These aren’t even just courtesy phone calls to check in on his availability, or speculation from other teams about his availability – Kevin Towers flat out confirmed that he’s in trade negotiations with other teams about his star right fielder.

“I’m open-minded and I’m going to listen to what people have to say,” he said. “If a deal presents itself that makes the Diamondbacks better, I think I need to be open-minded. The last two years, there has not been a deal that we felt made us better. That’s why we’ve retained him and we’ve kept him.”

“He will not be an easy guy for us to move. I think we’ve said it’s probably unlikely we end up doing something with him, but if somebody is willing to step up and we think it’s a deal that’s going to make the Diamondbacks better next year and going forward, we’ll talk about trading him.”

When you keep making a player available every winter, the differentiation between “shopping” and “listening” becomes meaningless. And so, with Upton back on the market, the search for a logical trade partner has once again brought the Texas Rangers back into the rumor vortex.

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Earlier Wednesday, it was announced that Padres catcher Yasmani Grandal would be suspended 50 games for testing positive for testosterone. In the event that you don’t believe me for some reason, here’s Ken Rosenthal, and you probably believe Ken Rosenthal:

#Padres’ Grandal gets 50-game suspension for testing positive for testosterone. Not good for a team that needs all offense it can get.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 7, 2012

See? Literally the exact same thing. Previously the day had belonged to Jason Bay and Mark McGwire, but Grandal grabbed headlines like few Padres ever do.

The direct consequences are clear. The most direct consequence is that Grandal will be suspended for 50 games, instead of serving as the Padres’ regular catcher right out of the gate. That’s a full third of a season, for an important young player, and that could have a meaningful impact on the Padres’ final totals of wins and losses. Additionally, the Padres now have to wonder about what they might have in Grandal. Though he batted .297 last year in his first exposure to the majors with an .863 OPS, this positive test introduces question marks. Just as Melky Cabrera will have to prove himself all over again, Grandal will have to prove himself all over again.

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