Archive for Effectively Wild

Effectively Wild Episode 1293: Offseason Draft Day

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the possibility of the Mariners selling and what a Jerry Dipoto-led rebuild would look like, the Yankees’ CC Sabathia signing and GM Brian Cashman’s comments about the luxury tax, scenes from the GM meetings, the Giants hiring Farhan Zaidi from the Dodgers, and Lance McCullers presumably pitching hurt and having Tommy John surgery, then conduct their annual free agent contracts over/under draft and World Series odds movers draft.

Audio intro: Blondie, "Will Anything Happen"
Audio outro: Big Thief, "Vegas"

Link to EW competitions and drafts sheet
Link to MLBTR’s FA contract predictions
Link to October Bovada World Series odds

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Effectively Wild Episode 1292: Strat and Tats

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Willians Astudillo‘s 2019 Steamer projections and turnover in the Astros front office and field staff, then (13:17) bring on Arnie Pollinger and Robin Perlow, husband and wife administrators of the 40-year-old SOMBILLA Strat-O-Matic league, to talk about the origins of the league, playing Strat on their first date, league rivalries, how they’ve kept the group together for so long, keeping track of past performance, how Strat has enhance their appreciation of baseball, pace of play, and the beginning of the league’s latest season. Then (41:16) they bring on EW listener and A’s fan Chris Rankin to ask him many probing questions about why he recently elected to get Khris Davis‘s .247 batting averages and Matt Chapman’s 2018 Defensive Runs Saved total tattooed on his wrists, and the possible ramifications of that decision. Lastly, Ben brings on Baseball Prospectus co-founder, Ringer colleague, and dermatologist Rany Jazayerli (1:04:29) to put a bow on both preceding segments by explaining whether Chris could conceivably remove his tattoos and how Strat taught him how to analyze baseball, followed by updates on Roger Angell and the minor-league free agent draft.

Audio intro: Clem Snide, "Weird"
Audio interstitial: The Rolling Stones, "Tumbling Dice"
Audio interstitial 2: Simon Love, "(Why’d You Get That) Tattoo Girl?"
Audio interstitial 3: Golden Earring, "Save Your Skin"
Audio outro: Dawes, "A Little Bit of Everything"

Link to 2019 Steamer projections
Link to SOMBILLA website
Link to photo of Chris’s tattoos
Link to Rany’s Strat-O-Matic article
Link to Roger Angell article
Link to .247 shirt

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Effectively Wild Episode 1291: Power Ball to the People

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh, Jeff Sullivan, and ESPN’s Sam Miller recap the results of their 2018 minor league free agent draft and the surprising season of Wade LeBlanc, banter about Willians Astudillo and Delmon Young, discuss the defining memory of the 2018 season (and other seasons), and react to Clayton Kershaw’s contract extension. Then (28:54) they bring on Rob Neyer, author of the new book Power Ball: Anatomy of a Modern Baseball Game, to discuss how he picked a game and topics to write about, whether baseball is changing in worrisome ways, knowing when and how to cite stats and talk to players, an unintended consequence of a powerful MLB Players Association, the pace of baseball’s evolution, Rob Manfred’s performance so far, and much more.

Audio intro: The Whigs, "Say Hello"
Audio interstitial: Rockpile, "When I Write the Book"
Audio outro: Joanna Newsom, "The Book of Right-On"

Link to minor league FA draft episode
Link to EW competitions/draft spreadsheet
Link to Sam’s article on each season’s defining memory
Link to Sam’s article on 2017’s defining memory
Link to Sam’s Delmon transaction tree article
Link to Jeff’s Kershaw contract post

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Effectively Wild Episode 1290: Circling the Wagenen

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Boston’s outfield rotation during the World Series, the significance of declining World Series ratings, the Orioles and the difficulty of classifying “tanking” teams, Manny Machado’s public persona and whether his reputation will hurt his free-agent appeal, and the Mets’ hiring of agent Brodie Van Wagenen as their new GM. They also answer two listener emails about the Astros and do a Stat Blast about the differences between postseason and regular-season baseball.

Audio intro: Dinosaur Jr., "The Wagon"
Audio outro: Lou Reed, "Wagon Wheel"

Link to Craig Edwards on World Series TV ratings
Link to Jeff’s post on the Orioles
Link to Ben on quantifying hustle
Link to Sheryl Ring on hiring agents as GMs
Link to Jeff on postseason stats

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Effectively Wild Episode 1289: Postseason Finale

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan recap the last three games of the World Series, including a wild and interminable Game 3, Game 4’s divisive managerial decisions, Game 5’s matchup of diverging starter narratives, how this World Series and postseason stacked up historically, the futures of the Red Sox and Dodgers, how great the Red Sox were, the weird ways they won, playoff unpredictability, the transition to the offseason, and more.

Audio intro: Frank Sinatra, "It’s Over, it’s Over, it’s Over"
Audio outro: Doug Martsch, "Stay"

Link to Ben’s article about second-guessing
Link to Jeff’s post about the Red Sox in historical context
Link to Ben’s Price post

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Effectively Wild Episode 1288: The More You Don’t Know

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about how teams project the outcomes of matchups between batters and pitchers, the perils of second-guessing well-informed managerial decisions, and why teams still make mistakes, then answer listener emails about start-to-start strikeout variance, limiting the number of pitchers used per game, a potential problem with pitcher-catcher headsets, the four Wander Francos, the MLB players with the most-ever teammates, and the legality of getting a running start when tagging up, plus a Stat Blast about a new way to think about how often the best batters fail.

Audio intro: The Posies, "I Guess You’re Right"
Audio outro: The Beths, "Not Running"

Link to Ben’s article about second-guessing
Link to Ben’s article about Kratz and catcher sounds
Link to list of players with most teammates

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Effectively Wild Episode 1287: Contact High

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about a home-run robbery by 40-year-old Endy Chavez and some managerial news, then discuss the first two games of the World Series, focusing on the Red Sox strikeout narrative, the disappointment of Clayton Kershaw vs. Chris Sale and Sale’s playoff vulnerability, David Price‘s second consecutive strong postseason start, a Fenway Park attendance mystery, mid-inning commercials on the Fox broadcast, Nathan Eovaldi‘s free agency, Cody Bellinger’s deceptive fly balls, the decisions of Dave Roberts (including Pedro Baez vs. Alex Wood and not starting Max Muncy), and more.

Audio intro: Rolling Blackouts Coastal Fever, "Talking Straight"
Audio outro: Oasis, "Hung in a Bad Place"

Link to Endy play
Link to Ben’s research on the contact advantage
Link to Jeff’s research on the contact advantage
Link to Jeff’s Bellinger post

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Effectively Wild Episode 1286: World Serious

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Willians Astudillo, how long it takes to fall asleep, and international signings, then review the end of the NLCS, discuss the worst way to lose, forecast the legacy and future of the Brewers, and preview the Red Sox-Dodgers World Series matchup, including why the series is closer than it looks, the Mookie Betts conundrum, Clayton Kershaw vs. David Price, the status of Craig Kimbrel, the potential for bad blood, the Dodgers’ flexibility, the correlation between payroll and success, what makes an exciting World Series pairing, and much more.

Audio intro: The Roches, "You’re the Two"
Audio outro: Elliott Smith, "Coast to Coast"

Link to Kimbrel pitch-tipping article
Link to Ben’s Dodgers flexibility article

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Effectively Wild Episode 1285: October Gets in Gear

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about a wild week of playoff baseball, including all the action from Games 3 and 4 of the ALCS and Games 4 and 5 of the NLCS, Joe West’s infamous fan-interference call against the Astros, Andrew Benintendi‘s game-saving catch, Craig Counsell‘s Curly Ogden gambit with Wade Miley, Clayton Kershaw‘s bounceback start, spygate and sign-stealing, Manny Machado’s literal heel turn, Counsell’s fateful decision to pitch to Cody Bellinger, why playoff baseball would be boring if not for the suspense, and more, plus an addendum about the Red Sox winning the pennant and the whereabouts of Willians Astudillo.

Audio intro: The Dead Weather, "Hustle and Cuss"
Audio outro: The Band, "The High Price of Love"

Link to Jeff’s post about Joe West’s call
Link to Jeff’s post about sign-stealing
Link to Zach Kram’s post about Counsell’s strategy
Link to Ben’s post about how playoff baseball is different.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1284: The Ghosts of Game Seven

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Game 3 of the NLCS, the apparent breakouts of Orlando Arcia and Brock Holt, Josh Hader as Poochie, why Yasmani Grandal and other playoff catchers can’t catch, whether a “cruising” pitcher is actually likely to keep cruising, and the 15th anniversary of Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS. Then (26:12) they bring on former Red Sox senior baseball analyst and Diamond Mind developer Tom Tippett to talk about how he started working for Boston, simulating the 2003 ALDS for Theo Epstein, simulating ALCS Game 7 for NESN, why Grady Little’s decision not to pull Pedro Martinez may not have been quite as bad as it seemed, how Boston’s subsequent success affects our perception of Game 7, the value of managers, how teams prepare for the playoffs, whether working in baseball is satisfying forever, and more.

Audio intro: Fionna Apple, "A Mistake"
Audio interstitial: Vitamin C, "Unhappy Anniversary"
Audio outro: Uncle Tupelo, "Fifteen Keys"

Link to post about catchers not catching
Link to Russell’s research about cruising pitchers
Link to MGL’s research about cruising pitchers
Link to MGL’s research about quick hooks
Link to Pedro’s recent comments on Game 7
Link to Tom’s Game 7 simulation article
Link to full Game 7 telecast
Link to Ben’s Game 7 retrospective

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