You smell that? It’s baseball’s prospect-list season. The fresh top-100 lists — populated by new names as well as old ones — seem to be popping up each day. With the individual rankings coming out, some organization rankings are becoming available, as well. I have always regarded the organizational rankings as subjective — and, as a result, not 100% useful. Utilizing the methodology I introduced in my article on prospect evaluation from this year’s Hardball Times Annual, however, it’s possible to calculate a total value for every team’s farm system and remove the biases of subjectivity. In what follows, I’ve used that same process to rank all 30 of baseball’s farm systems by the surplus WAR they should generate.

I provide a detailed explanation of my methodology in the Annual article. To summarize it briefly, however, what I’ve done is to identify WAR equivalencies for the scouting grades produced by Baseball America in their annual Prospect Handbook. The grade-to-WAR conversion appears as follows.

Prospect Grade to WAR Conversion

Prospect Grade	Total WAR	Surplus WAR
80	25.0	18.5
75	18.0	13.0
70	11.0	9.0
65	8.5	6.0
60	4.7	3.0
55	2.5	1.5
50	1.1	0.5
45	0.4	0.0

To create the overall totals for this post, I used each team’s top-30 rankings per the most recent edition of Baseball America’ Prospect Handbook. Also accounting for those trades which have occurred since the BA rankings were locked down, I counted the number of 50 or higher-graded prospects (i.e. the sort which provide surplus value) in each system. The results follows.
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Other clubs: Braves, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Indians, Orioles, Reds, Red Sox, Rockies, White Sox.

To say the Tigers have had a “type” is an understatement. They have consistently brought in hard-throwing pitchers with either command or secondary-pitch questions, and most of them have ended up as relievers by the time they make it to the big leagues. As Kiley pointed out in last year’s rankings, it’s hard to fault the Tigers’ process, as they continue to develop enough talent to reinforce their big league team via trades, and Mike Ilitch has had no problem spending money to fill in the gaps with free agents.

When 2015 didn’t go according to plan, they were able to replenish their stock by trading from the underachieving parent club. And to their credit, they have started to target a more diverse group of players in the draft and internationally. There is still a lack of impact talent in this group, but a lot of depth and interesting prospects that will contribute to a winning club.

I would draw attention to the rankings that differ from other lists, but honestly, most of the grades are so similar you could shuffle them around and we would be saying the same thing. For just a few from the top end, I buy into Christin Stewart‘s power potential despite him being a recent draftee who didn’t used to have much pop. I would bet I also have more faith in Mike Gerber’s steady skill set than most. Otherwise, some guys are lower, some are higher… I can’t argue with anyone who disagrees on these guys because there aren’t big differences between a lot of them, especially on the pitching side.

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Other clubs: Braves, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Indians, Orioles, Reds, Red Sox, White Sox.

The Rockies’ system is a long list of potential major league contributors, topped by nearly a full team of 50+ overall grade prospects. They haven’t had the best luck developing young pitchers, but Jeff Hoffman and Jon Gray give them a chance at building a cost-effective pitching staff in the near future as they try to retool, while a stable of younger hurlers may arrive in three to four years. I don’t see any huge surprises on this list for people, though having Brendan Rodgers number one may be debatable. Gray gets bumped down a bit for command concerns, though obviously his upside is apparent. Catcher Dom Nunez and starting pitcher Peter Lambert may be higher on this list than you will hear elsewhere, and Carlos Estevez‘ relief potential bumps him into the 50-grade territory for me.

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Other clubs: Braves, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Red Sox, White Sox.

I share the view of many fans in wondering if the return from the Todd Frazier deal was justified, even though I do think Jose Peraza and Scott Schebler are valuable prospects. Even if all three (Brandon Dixon being the third) were busts, the Reds have amassed quite an assortment of high-upside and -floor prospects who could the club competitive in a short time frame. And that’s without including Nick Howard and Jonathon Crawford as promising assets, both of whom were highly thought of as recently as last offseason before their lost 2015 years.

The Reds have an uphill road to climb this season to contend, with the Cardinals, Cubs and Pirates all looking like present contenders. Depending on how their young players respond at the major league level, we could see an influx of talented players turn them into a contender akin to the way the Cubs did last season. Most likely they still have a year or two to expect the results to resemble their collective potential, but this crop is an exciting group to monitor this year.

They may lack a sure thing top-of-the-rotation starter or cornerstone shortstop, but you can’t help but be interested in seeing where pitchers like Robert Stephenson, Cody Reed and Amir Garrett settle in. And between Blandino, Peraza and Blake Trahan, at least one of them should be able to supplant Zack Cozart at short, allowing Eugenio Suarez‘ likely move to third base.

This was a hard organization to cover, due to the endless amount of legitimate bench and bullpen pieces behind a sizable list of 50+ future value players. The system boast a ton of mid-level talent to go along with their solid top talent, and is a team I’ll be following closely this year to see how everyone’s stock improves.

As usual, there are a few rankings here that differ from popular opinion. I have Winker ranked number one, since I maintain confidence in his hitting ability while also expecting his power to come on strong. Ian Kahaloa and Gavin LaValley are too newer additions to the organization whose futures I am higher on than what I have heard elsewhere. I am not as bullish about Eric Jagielo’s bat progressing, and am also lower on Antonio Santillan, Yorman Rodriguez and Aristides Aquino. Admittedly, Santillan and Kahaloa are so early in their development that you could make a case for either of them moving up or down ten spots, and I wouldn’t argue with you.

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Other clubs: Braves, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Red Sox.

The White Sox have seen their lowly regarded farm system weakened by the Todd Frazier deal, but they still have a few guys at the top who could be impact players. This system’s biggest strength is in its depth of depth pieces, including a lot of bullpen arms and bench players that still have some upside if things break right. Perhaps the most interesting quality is how unique some of their prospects are. Many are gifted athletes who seem to have atypical looks on the field, or just unique stories. Watch Tyler Danish on the mound and how his delivery works, with possibly surprising success, depending on who you ask. Or take Eddy Alvarez, who previously won a silver medal in speed skating before coming back to baseball.

Though I don’t think this system will churn out a bunch of surprise superstars, the scouting department has done a good job bringing in gifted yet undeveloped players in at the lower levels. Give their Rookie-level players a year to develop and we may have three or four of them high on this list next year.

I think you’ll find the top three players here to be the same three as most evaluators would say, though my order is a little different. As fun as Carson Fulmer is to watch, his delivery makes it harder to project the necessary improvements to reach his upside, so I actually think Spencer Adams and Tim Anderson have a brighter future. Adams is more potential than reality in some ways, but his athleticism and easy actions are too good not to see him fully progressing. It may be a year early for most to feel comfortable with Adams’ grades, but I’m going to trust the potential.

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Other clubs: Braves, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Red Sox.

Cubs fans had to be thrilled with how the 2015 season played out, as many of the top prospects in their system decided they didn’t need an adjustment period and sprinted out of the gates. Looking at the number of young players contributing to the playoff run, you could assume the minor league pipeline would take a step back after graduating so many high-level players. Fortunately for Cubs fans, there is still a wealth of both high-floor and high-upside talent under team control.

There is a strong mix of pitching and hitting assets. Most of the top offensive reinforcements will be knocking on the big league door within a year or two, while the higher-ceiling pitchers may take another year to show up. The overall quantity of guys who were in the conversation for this list was itself an impressive compliment to the Cubs’ scouting and player development efforts.

For the hitters, I’m a little higher on Billy McKinney and Dan Vogelbach and lower on Willson Contreras and Jeimer Candelario than you might see elsewhere. None of them grade out poorly in my opinion, but it may be a different ranking than even some Cubs officials would prefer. Pitchers Dylan Cease and Jake Stinnett are ranked favorably, especially in comparison to CJ Edwards and Pierce Johnson for reasons that are explained in each respective player’s report.

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Other clubs: Braves, Diamondbacks, Orioles.

The 2015 season was a disappointment from a standings perspective for Red Sox fans, no doubt. The near future should be a consolation, however, with their young talent proving capable of making an impact going into this spring. The new graduates were backed up by positive developments on the farm, as a number of guys took steps forward to fill in behind them. New general manager Dave Dombrowski has a lot with which he can work as the club looks to be back in the hunt for a division title.

The organization has four prospects who are pretty widely accepted as its top talents, though opinions differ greatly on the ranking order. Separate Red Sox officials all had one of Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi as top dog, each player having separate questions that potentially limit their ceilings (though they’re all pretty high regardless). Moncada has legitimate defensive concerns while Devers’ power is more projection than reliable skill for now. Anderson Espinoza has a case for being on top of the list as well with his exceptional talent standing out at such a young age. In the end, I decided on Benintendi, though I could get behind any of the other three being the preferred choice.

The trade for Craig Kimbrel took four prospects off the list, which you can read about when the Padres list comes out (Margot would have been #3, Allen likely just off the top 10, Guerra towards the back end of the 45+ group). The rest of the system still has a good mix of upside and safety with enviable pitching and middle infield prospect quality. As a fair warning, I have a higher opinion of Mauricio Dubon and Trey Ball than may be commonly accepted, while Sam Travis gets more love after a strong regular season and fall performance than I’m willing to give just yet.

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What the Orioles lack in sure-thing big-league prospects, they make up for with an impressive collection of back-end starters, relievers and fringe regular/bench guys. At the top of the list are the same guys as last year, with Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey headlining the future hopes of a cost-controlled stable of young players. Unfortunately, both are dealing with time missed due to injuries, and the O’s will have to determine how to deal with Bundy’s conundrum of not being quite ready to stick in the majors but being out of options.

Jomar Reyes and Chance Sisco are the greatest hope for the Orioles to develop a cornerstone position player, though not without risk. Sisco has defensive shortcomings and questionable power projection, and Reyes just finished up playing in A-ball as an 18-year-old. Still, what has made their Major League roster fun to watch with Dan Duquette at the helm has been their propensity for putting bench players and fringy starters into positions where they are able to thrive. Though the overall picture may leave this farm system looking grim, there probably isn’t a better team than the Orioles at getting the most out of what they have to stay competitive.

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*EDIT: After a strong showing from internet commenters, I added a couple changes to this piece. You’ll see that Austin Riley and Kolby Allard were both added to the list, as well as some notes under Ryan Weber’s report.

I’m going to leave the overall grades the same here, though AS WITH EVERYBODY overall grades may change by the time I get to the composite prospect list. I originally wanted to put three overall grades in these reports, then thought about leaving them out entirely because of their likelihood to change, before finally settling on putting a likely future value in for some comparisons. The innernets say no. I’m new here.

I’m reserving the right to change grades as I go along, this being the first time I’ve compiled reports on a volume this scale, though I have decided to put three values in for overall grades in the future lists. This should help clear up some of the questions people have about how I can agree that pitcher Mel Clark has a high ceiling, but only makes it on the list in the 45+ section. Enjoy!

The Braves have made some headlines this year with a number of trades to bring in young talent. While the short-term picture suffers with the loss of some popular, productive players, they are setting their future up with a lot of depth in their farm system. With a few players on the verge of contributing to the big league team, the next year or two may not be as bad as it could be trading away so much present value.

The big push of prospects could come from players at A-ball Rome and below. There are a lot of interesting talents who have entered the system in the last year or two that haven’t yet revealed how high their ceilings could be. The lower-level collection of players has a lot of risk involved, but the sheer volume of players with talent should ensure the Braves will reap the benefits of the work they’ve put into the farm.

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What they may lack in impact bats, the Diamondbacks make up for with pitching depth. They have a lot of pitchers with high floors in the upper levels of the minors, and a few in the low minors that should move quickly. A few have top of the rotation potential. The addition of Dansby Swanson to the organization this June does a lot to help reinforce the offensive pipeline, but the team will have to do a better job developing hitters over the next few years.

Their quantity of outfield options is solid, and was something of a logjam in the upper minors this season. That four players who started playing for the team in 2015 make the top eight here is a good sign for their talent acquisition going forward. Look for the pitchers to start making their presence felt in the big leagues in 2016 and 2017, while we wait on some of the lower-level hitting prospects to put things together.

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