Let’s begin with the news: Josh Hamilton is a free agent no longer. As of Thursday, he’s agreed to a five-year contract with the Angels reportedly worth $125 million. That breaks down easily to come out to an average annual value of $25 million. As of Wednesday, the Rangers looked like the favorites to get Hamilton locked up, and it was said that Hamilton would give the Rangers a chance to match any offer before he committed himself to another organization. According to Jon Heyman, the Rangers were actually given no such chance, as they were simply told that Hamilton was leaving. Reports suggest the Rangers wouldn’t go higher than four years. The Angels gave five. Five is greater than four.

Now let’s follow with some recent history. The Angels weren’t even mentioned seriously as a Hamilton suitor until Thursday morning. It looked like it would be the Rangers, with the Mariners and the Phillies somewhere on the dark-horse periphery. In fact:

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One of my favorite* old writer techniques was when people would try to analyze Zack Greinke’s decision-making process based on the fact that he had social anxiety disorder. It was as if the condition made Greinke more understandable, as opposed to less. “Greinke would never want to play in a large market,” people would assert. “He wouldn’t be able to handle it.” Zack Greinke, most recently, has been a free agent. Zack Greinke just reportedly signed a six-year contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers for $147 million. As markets go, Los Angeles is pretty big.

* least favorite

Greinke was the market’s best available free-agent starter, so in that sense it’s not a surprise that he wound up with the Dodgers, since the Dodgers have all of the money. Even your money is the Dodgers’ money now. They even took your laundry quarters. In recent days, this wasn’t so clear, though, as it was down to the Dodgers and the Rangers, and there were indications that Greinke preferred Texas. But those indications were just rumors, and the smart bet would’ve been on the team with all of the money. The team with all of the money was and is the Dodgers.

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Recently, it was reported on a great number of occasions that the Angels had strong interest in free-agent Brandon McCarthy. The Angels wound up giving two years and $15 million to Joe Blanton, seemingly pulling them out of the running. Today, McCarthy has signed a very similar contract — one worth $15.5 million over two years, with the Diamondbacks. This is more or less the contract McCarthy was destined to end up with, and Arizona is the lucky team that gets to give it to him. This being FanGraphs, of course we’re somewhat biased where McCarthy is concerned, but it’s not bias that makes this look like a potential steal, and a probable bargain.

Let’s ignore the contract breakdown and just look at the overall figures. For two years and $15.5 million, the average team would be looking to add, what, three wins over replacement? A little bit more than that? Yes, pitcher WAR has its issues, and yes, of course not every team looks to spend the same amount of money per win on the free-agent market. Efficiency is more important for some than for others. But a $15.5-million contract over two years is not a hefty contract, and you’d expect only so much of a return. McCarthy is positioned to give a better return.

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The Angels at one point recently had a threadbare starting rotation, but it was considered pretty likely they’d be able to re-sign Zack Greinke. The Angels, since then, have all but dropped out on Zack Greinke, and added Tommy Hanson and Joe Blanton. Hanson cost the Angels Jordan Walden. Blanton cost the Angels two years and $15 million. The Angels aren’t necessarily done, but instead of having four starters they’re sitting on six, and it looks like the rotation isn’t going to add a high-profile arm. They might have to make do with what they have, and because they now have Joe Blanton, we should probably talk about him.

Last year, over 30 starts, Blanton posted a 4.71 ERA. That was his lowest ERA since 2009. He’s nearly 32 years old, he can’t stop coughing up dingers, and he missed a lot of 2011 with an elbow problem. There’s a reason Blanton wound up with the contract he did, and there’s a reason he didn’t seem to be highly sought after in the market. My role now is to try to sell you on him. There are elements of Joe Blanton’s game that should appeal to you quite a lot. You, being the avid reader of FanGraphs.

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Since 2010, ten different players have played third base for the Chicago White Sox. One of them has posted a positive WAR, and he’s currently a free agent, looking for a multi-year contract. The position has been something of a trouble spot, and on Wednesday the White Sox addressed said trouble spot by agreeing to terms with Jeff Keppinger. Word is it’s a three-year contract worth something in the neighborhood of $12 million, give or take your average annual salary.

Keppinger had been hotly pursued, despite a broken leg. There was talk that the Yankees were very interested, as third base has become a problem spot for them, too, but the White Sox were able to offer Keppinger a ~guaranteed starting job, which might have played a role in his decision. The Yankees have an opening now, but they might not have an opening upon Alex Rodriguez’s return from injury. In Chicago, Keppinger presumably won’t be pushed.

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It might not be fair to say the Tampa Bay Rays don’t care about player makeup concerns. You could conceivably come up with a hypothetical talented player so awful the Rays wouldn’t take a chance. Based on precedent and indications, it might be fair to say the Rays care the least about player makeup concerns of any team in the league. Almost by necessity, if you figure the Rays need to identify exploitable inefficiencies in order to survive. Given such, perhaps the least surprising move of the winter meetings so far is that the Rays acquired Yunel Escobar from the Marlins in exchange for Derek Dietrich.

Strip away the traits that make this deal unique and it makes plenty of sense on the face of it. Escobar wasn’t much of a fit with Miami, since the Marlins prefer Adeiny Hechavarria at shortstop. The Rays were looking for an everyday shortstop, the acquisition of which would allow Ben Zobrist to go back to roaming. The Rays wanted someone good now; the Marlins wanted someone potentially good later. Escobar is affordable, at $5 million in 2013, with $5 million options for each of the next two years. If the offseason is about front offices answering as many questions as they can, the Rays and Marlins both just answered questions by swinging this deal.

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When the Angels allowed Dan Haren to walk away for nothing, the immediate speculation was that he’d look to stay on the West Coast. There seemed to be a natural fit with the Padres, and though there were lingering questions regarding Haren’s health, it was clear he was going to get a shot somewhere, and it was clear he was going to be in some sort of demand. Haren seems to have found a home now, on Tuesday, and it isn’t on the West Coast at all — it’s on the opposite of the West Coast, as Haren has an agreement with the Nationals for a year and $13 million.

The immediate implications are twofold. One, the Nationals have an agreement with Dan Haren! Two, with Haren, the Nationals would be removed from the Zack Greinke sweepstakes, almost certainly. Greinke had been linked most often to the Dodgers, Angels, Nationals, and Rangers, and Haren would round out the Nationals’ starting rotation, eliminating the need. Not that the Nationals were considered a favorite for Greinke’s services, but one less suitor is one less suitor, even though the Dodgers are all the suitors a free agent needs.

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Early on during the winter meetings, we’ve seen the Rays agree to terms with James Loney, and the Padres agree to terms with Jason Marquis. Now we’ve seen the Red Sox agree to terms with an actual good player, signing Mike Napoli for three years and $39 million. In theory, this’ll cause more dominoes to fall. In reality, more dominoes will fall regardless.

From this we can learn a little something about reported rumors and reported demands. Napoli was said on several occasions to be holding out for a four-year contract. He didn’t get it. Napoli was said on some occasions to be insistent on catching. With the Red Sox, he’ll predominantly be a first baseman. Either Napoli isn’t getting exactly what he wanted, or what he wanted wasn’t accurately conveyed.

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Two seasons ago Casey Kotchman, a career .259/.326/.392 (91 wRC+) hitter in over 2,300 plate appearances coming into the year, posted a stellar .306/.378/.422 (127 wRC+) line in 563 plate appearances for the Rays. This past season Jeff Keppinger, a career .281/.332/.388 (92 wRC+) hitter in nearly 2,300 plate appearances coming into the year, posted a stellar .325/.367/.439 (128 wRC+) line in 418 plate appearances for the Rays. Tampa bay is now going to try to work their magic on James Loney.

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Some time ago, the Angels attempted to trade Dan Haren to the Cubs in exchange for Carlos Marmol. The Angels had concerns about Haren, and wanted to turn him into something useful. The Cubs had concerns about Marmol, and wanted to turn him into something useful. On paper, the deal looked lopsided in the Cubs’ favor, and so one had to consider that maybe the Angels knew something scary about Haren’s medicals. Sure enough, the deal fell through, and now Haren is a free agent looking for a short-term contract. No one’s going to be ballsy enough to give him a long-term contract.

Friday, the Angels completed sort of the opposite of that Haren/Marmol trade. Instead of the Angels dealing a troubled starter to get a troubled reliever, they’ve dealt the somewhat troubled Jordan Walden to the Braves in exchange for the troubled Tommy Hanson. Unlike with Haren, we don’t have to speculate that something might be up with Hanson, physically — we know that his shoulder has been groaning. The Angels, without question, know that they’re taking a chance, here. They determined, at the cost of Jordan Walden, the chance is worth taking.

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