Rays Scrape The Barrel, Come Up With James Loney
Two seasons ago Casey Kotchman, a career .259/.326/.392 (91 wRC+) hitter in over 2,300 plate appearances coming into the year, posted a stellar .306/.378/.422 (127 wRC+) line in 563 plate appearances for the Rays. This past season Jeff Keppinger, a career .281/.332/.388 (92 wRC+) hitter in nearly 2,300 plate appearances coming into the year, posted a stellar .325/.367/.439 (128 wRC+) line in 418 plate appearances for the Rays. Tampa bay is now going to try to work their magic on James Loney.
Loney, 28, has agreed to a one-year, $2 million contract with the Rays according to Tim Brown and Jon Heyman. He’s been a league average hitter throughout his career (.282/.339/.419, 103 wRC+ in nearly 3,500 plate appearances) but has slipped below that level in recent years, hitting just .296/.322/.386 (94 wRC+) in just short of 1,700 plate appearances since the start of 2010. This year he put up a .249/.293/.336 (70 wRC+) line in 465 plate appearances for the Dodgers and Red Sox, career-worsts across the board.
Can Loney’s offense spike like Kotchman’s and Keppinger’s? Sure, it’s possible. Those two are ground ball hitters who enjoyed abnormally high BABIPs while with the Rays, possibly due to the turf at Tropicana Field and holes opening on the infield as they ran the bases aggressively. Loney’s career ground ball rate is just 43.2% (45.8% in 2012), so he’s a different type of hitter. He does put the ball in play though (career 12.2 K% and 11.0 K% last year) and good things usually happen when you do that. If nothing else, he’ll help chip away at the team’s astronomical 21.7% strikeout rate from this year.
It’s been more than a full year since Loney has hit a homer in his home ballpark — last one came on Sept. 17th of 2011 — and his troubles against left-handed pitchers have become so extreme (107 wRC+ vs. RHP and 52 wRC+ vs. LHP since 2010) that the Rays will surely pair him with a right-handed hitting platoon partner. Loney’s first base defense is rated very well by DRS and UZR, so at the very least he’ll contribute in the field. He’s not much of a base-runner either, so his game boils down to being a league average bat against righties and being a vacuum over at first base.
The Rays paid Carlos Pena more than $7 million to hit .197/.330/.354 (98 wRC+) and provide 0.9 WAR in 660 plate appearances last year. Loney will make less than a third of that and should be able to provide similar production assuming the Rays use him properly, which Joe Maddon’s history suggests they will. Tampa can’t afford to drop multiple years at big bucks on a first base masher like Adam LaRoche, so signing a stop gap like Loney for relative pittance is their best course of action at first. It’s low-risk, maybe medium-reward if things break right.
Mike writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues and baseball in general at CBS Sports.
The Red Sox should feel a little better about giving Gomes $5mil a year if Loney is getting $2mil.
I love this deal for the Rays. All Loney needs to do is hit .270 with 10 HR and play average 1B defense at worst and this is a huge win for TB. Also, as suggested, his value can be maximized with platooning him appropriately which is where Maddon shines.
It’s a nice value signing, but I would hold off on falling in love with James Loney.
Just so that is very clear, I “love the deal”, I do not “love James Loney”.
That would be a “huge win for TB” for the value of the contract, but those numbers are well below average for 1B, and below the production they’ve recently gotten from the position. That’s a step backwards for the Rays, production they’ll have to make up in other areas if they simply want to stand still, offensively.
Eh, the Rays have limited cash. Being able to get good value is a big win for them, letting them spend money improving other positions. With that said, you’re right that it doesn’t actually improve the club unless they can spend those savings wisely elsewhere.
Last year the Rays had Carlos Pena hitting .197/.330/.354 at first base. I think there’s a good chance Loney can at least match that, so I’m not seeing how this would be a step backwards.
platoon at 1B could be where Mike Morse comes in. and with a RHer going, maybe he takes LF while Jennings shifts to CF…
Could hitters that avoid striking out (like Loney and Keppinger) be undervalued by the rest of the league? Friedman is notable for liking to “buy-low” on players.
Why would a hitter want to maximize his skills such that he be undervalued, and thus underpaid?
Sorry, misread your original comment.
It does make you wonder. I think on a team like the Rays, though, where scoring a runner on third, no outs, seems like a near-impossibility at times, a contact hitter in the lineup adds certain value regardless of a BABIP luck.
Does it, though? Adding one hitter like that requires the luck of having him come up at the time you need a groundball/deep fly ball out. I’m not sure one can count on him coming to bat in enough “productive out” situations for that to a real source of value.
I think getting on-base via error is undervalued (wOBA accounts for this, though).
I think barrel is misspelled in the title
A cheap replacement for Luke Scott but with better defense.
Whoa… whoa… whoa…. Two players had career years while playing for the Rays in two different years? That never happens anywhere else!!