Archive for Instanalysis

Russell Martin Bringing New Element to Pirates Baseball

Russell Martin was a Yankee, and then Russell Martin became a free agent. Russell Martin is a catcher, and once he became a free agent, the Yankees were in need of a catcher. Russell Martin is pretty good, and he wasn’t looking to break the bank with a contract. Russell Martin is 29. Martin seemed like an excellent candidate to re-sign, and indeed, there were indications that the Yankees were making Martin a priority. Then Thursday, Martin signed a two-year deal with the Pirates. It’s worth just $17 million, but the Yankees reportedly weren’t interested in matching that price. While the Pirates had been mentioned as a serious suitor in recent days, it’s an undeniable surprise to see the Yankees essentially get priced out for something they could really use.

The Yankees, as has been mentioned several times over, are trying to avoid paying luxury-tax penalties in 2014, meaning they’ve placed a particular emphasis on one-year contracts. In that light, staying away from Martin makes some sense, but the Yankees still need a catcher, and guys like A.J. Pierzynski and Mike Napoli are unlikely to sign for one season. Surely the Yankees will figure something out, and this isn’t going to make or break their whole next year, but from the outside, this is a little perplexing.

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B.J. Upton, Braves Reach Hefty, Predictable Agreement

For several months, now, the Atlanta Braves have looked like a fitting future home for B.J. Upton. Once Upton officially became a free agent, the Braves made no secret of their interest, and in fact nearly two weeks ago it was suggested to me that I begin writing about Upton signing with Atlanta. That turned out to be not so much a false alarm as a hasty one — Upton didn’t sign then, and other teams sniffed around, but Upton has signed now, with the Braves for five years and just over $75 million. The predictable match is indeed the match that we observe, as Upton has landed his big-money contract, and as the Braves have landed their top offseason priority.

With the Braves, Upton basically replaces Michael Bourn in center field. The Braves aren’t done, as they still have a hole on one side of Upton (assuming Martin Prado shifts to third), but that’ll be addressed in time, and that also isn’t what’s relevant today. B.J. Upton is 28 years old, with a new employer that just made a substantial long-term commitment, and he should be discussed.

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The Extremity of Wilton Lopez

There’s a fun game I’ve enjoyed playing, called Spot The Half-Decent Astro. It’s challenging, because there haven’t been very many of them, and because I could never get anyone else to play too. Did you know that the 2012 Astros’ team leader in home runs was Justin Maxwell? Do you know anything about Justin Maxwell, aside from his name and that fact? The Astros have been dreadful for a reason — they haven’t had very many good players. One of their few good players has been reliever Wilton Lopez. Now Wilton Lopez isn’t an Astro anymore.

Basically. The Astros and Phillies have unofficially swung a trade, sending Lopez to Philadelphia, and sending a prospect or two or more to Houston. Without knowing anything about the prospect(s), it’s a sensible trade for Houston, because what they don’t need right now are good relievers. And it’s a sensible trade for Philadelphia, because it makes them better now and the Phillies are all about the now.

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Ryan Madson: Bounceback Player for a Bounceback Team

At the start of last offseason, Ryan Madson had big dreams. For a time, it appeared he was on the verge of signing a big four-year contract. He didn’t, ultimately having to settle for a one-year contract, and then he missed that one year in its entirety after sustaining a torn UCL. Tommy John surgery completely wiped out Madson’s 2012.

The Angels had big dreams, too. They signed Albert Pujols, they signed C.J. Wilson, they announced the terms of a massive new TV contract, and they set their sights on the World Series. The Angels didn’t even make the playoffs, even though the playoff pool had expanded by 25 percent. The Angels missed the playoffs in part because of their inconsistent bullpen.

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Jonathan Broxton Means Changes in Store for Aroldis Chapman

The general manager of the Cincinnati Reds is Walt Jocketty. Jocketty and the Reds have known there was a decision they’d have to make on Aroldis Chapman. Chapman has proven himself as a closer; Chapman has not yet proven himself as a starter, but it would sure be neat if he could, and if he did. This is what Jocketty had to say on the matter earlier in the offseason:

“We haven’t made a decision on Chapman as a starter or as a reliever,” Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said. “We’re talking about it.”
[…]
“It depends on if we re-sign [Jonathan] Broxton and [Ryan] Madson,” Jocketty said. “Or if we get another closer.”

Today, there’s word that the Reds and Broxton are having serious discussions about a three-year contract. Obviously, no contract has yet been signed. Obviously, the Reds haven’t come out and declared that Chapman is moving to the starting rotation. But what it looks like is that the Reds will re-sign Broxton and try to get Chapman to start. Just because that might not be how it works out doesn’t mean that isn’t how it’s most likely to work out.

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Hiroki Kuroda Gets Contract, Raise from Yankees

Earlier Tuesday, there was a rumor floating around Twitter that B.J. Upton had signed a long-term contract with the Phillies. That turned out to be fake, or alternatively sent to the present from the presently unknowable future. There was also a rumor floating around Twitter that Hiroki Kuroda had signed a short-term contract with the Yankees. That turned out to be real, as Kuroda has re-upped for a year and $15 million, with another near-million in incentives.

Last January, Kuroda signed with the Yankees for a year and $10 million. He pitched well, and after the season the Yankees extended to him one of those qualifying offers worth $13.3 million. Kuroda declined it, but there was some thought that he could accept it, suggesting that the terms weren’t far off from something he’d find agreeable. Indeed, the Yankees have re-signed Kuroda for the qualifying offer, and just a little more. Or a lot more, depending on how you feel about a couple million dollars.

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Melky Cabrera Follows Marlins to Toronto

During the 2012 regular season, Blue Jays outfielders combined to be worth 4.6 WAR, which was tied for the sixth-lowest total in baseball. Nearly all of that came from Jose Bautista, who was terrific and then injured. The Blue Jays have some young and talented outfielders in-house, and if they were rebuilding, they might guarantee those players some time. But this week’s mega-trade with the Marlins signaled that the Blue Jays would like to win “sooner” instead of “eventually”, so now they’re going to guarantee some time to Melky Cabrera.

On Friday, the Jays signed Cabrera to a two-year contract worth $16 million, according to Enrique Rojas and later confirmed by others. The deal is not yet official — just like Toronto’s other big deal — but there’s little reason to believe it won’t become official after Cabrera’s physical, so now we analyze.

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Maicer Izturis Finds New Place to be Perfectly Acceptable

Just last season, Maicer Izturis wrapped up a three-year, $10-million contract. On Thursday, Maicer Izturis signed a three-year, $9-million contract. There’s also a fourth-year option — worth $3 million — for one of the very newest Toronto Blue Jays. Maybe that isn’t enough of a hook. Maybe this will make for a better hook.

It’s the first multiyear contract that Anthopoulos has guaranteed to a free agent since becoming general manager in the fall of 2009. The biggest handout prior to Izturis occurred last offseason, when the Blue Jays signed lefty Darren Oliver to a one-year, $4.5 million deal.

Under Alex Anthopoulos, the Blue Jays’ biggest free-agent investments have been Darren Oliver and Maicer Izturis. Granted, free agency is not the only means by which one may construct a major-league roster. On the other hand, Darren Oliver and Maicer Izturis. This is one of those things that’s funny if you think about it for five seconds and a lot less funny if you think about it for five minutes.

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Value Hunting: Potential One-Year Buys

Free agency is, by far, the most inefficient way to build a team. It’s also a necessary evil. No club develops enough players internally to fill out an entire roster — or trade for players to help fill out the roster — so every year, every team goes outside its organization to grab some players out of the free-agent pool. Some teams are big spenders, and some scrape the bottom of the barrel. But they’re all looking for the same thing: value and minimal risk.

Pretty much the only way to achieve the minimal-risk part is with a one-year contract, but that isn’t always a realistic option. For the most part, the guys you can sign to a one-year deal have some kind of flaw. Maybe they’re old or injured or just not productive anymore. Every once in a while a team uncovers a gem on a one-year contract, though, leaving everyone else to wonder how they missed out on that guy. With free agency just a few days old, here is a quartet of players likely available on one-year contracts who could provide a surprisingly strong return.

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David Ortiz, Red Sox Renew Vows

For a very long time, the Boston Red Sox were good. Great, even. Then, beginning around September 2011 or so, the Red Sox turned into a disaster. The Sox followed a poor end to the 2011 season with a poor all of the 2012 season, and it became somewhat conceivable that David Ortiz would look for a change. Ortiz was set to be a free agent after the year, and as hard as it is to imagine the Red Sox without him, maybe Ortiz would’ve been sick of the atmosphere. Just recently, Ken Rosenthal wrote that the Texas Rangers would have interest in Ortiz as a potential free-agent DH. It wasn’t impossible that Ortiz would go somewhere else, is the point.

But that’s not happening, as it turns out. Friday was the end of the exclusive negotiating window for teams and their free agents. Recently there were reports that Ortiz and the Red Sox were close to an agreement, then there were reports that Ortiz and the Red Sox weren’t really close to an agreement. But Friday, word’s out that an agreement is in place. David Ortiz is not hitting the open market — David Ortiz is staying in Boston.

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