By any statistical measure, Pirates pitching phenom Jameson Taillon’s 2011 was a success. Strong strikeout rates, low walk rates and less than a hit per inning leaves both Pittsburgh and prospect fans in general excited about his developing into the organization’s first top flight starter since Doug Drabek nearly two decades ago (Gerrit Cole has some say in this as well).

Did Taillon impress in person? Most definitely, but the young right-hander scouted quite differently than the numbers indicate. Taillon was actually quite raw and requires considerable refinement even though the numbers say otherwise.

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When the Seattle Mariners dealt left-hander Cliff Lee to the Texas Rangers for a package centered around first baseman Justin Smoak, my initial reaction was surprise – the New York Yankees were in the hunt and had apparently offered their top prospect, only to be rebuffed at the 11th hour. In March, a spring training piece I wrote on Montero included even stronger sentiment:

Jesus Montero has a chance to have a very special career for the New York Yankees, or any franchise he may be dealt to. Personally, I thought the Seattle Mariners were nuts for wanting Justin Smoak over Jesus Montero at the trade deadline last season.

Having never had the opportunity to scout Smoak in person, my frame of reference for discussing Smoak became Montero as he still ranks as the best pure hitting prospect I’ve had the opportunity to scout.

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Colorado Rockies 2010 first round pick Kyle Parker posted impressive power numbers, but lofty strikeout totals in his full season debut in the South Atlantic League. Given his being age appropriate for the level, if not a touch long in the tooth, Parker’s triple slash line of .285/.367/.483 appears better on paper than in practice as his 132/48 strikeout-to-walk ratio and .353 BABIP point to a prospect whose success has a bit of a “Smoke and Mirrors” feel.

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The Mets system is hurt by a lack of depth. It has some very nice arms in Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey and Jeurys Familia, but things begin to fall off quickly after that. The offensive prospects, in particular, come with a lot of question marks.

1. Zack Wheeler, RHP
BORN: May 30, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 1st round (6th overall), Georgia HS (by San Francisco)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 2nd (San Francisco)

SCOUTING REPORT: A half year of veteran outfielder Carlos Beltran cost the San Francisco Giants dearly when they shipped Wheeler to the east coast. The right-hander instantly became the organization’s No. 1 prospect, narrowly edging Matt Harvey for the distinction. Wheeler’s repertoire includes a 91-95 mph fastball that can touch the upper 90s, a potentially-plus curveball and two developing pitches: a changeup and a cutter.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Wheeler had little to no issues with high-A ball during his first true full season in the minors. He struggled a bit with his control while pitching in the Giants organization (4.81 BB/9 in 88 IP) but made some minor adjustments with the Mets and showed improvement, albeit in a small sample size (1.67 BB/9 in 27 IP). He has yet to see his strikeout rate dip below 10.00 K/9 in his career. After posting an outstanding ground-ball rate in ’10, Wheeler’s became more of a fly-ball pitcher in ’11; it would be nice to see him work the lower half of the strike zone more consistently.

YEAR AHEAD: Wheeler is ready for the challenge of double-A and he should spend the majority of the season at that level. The organization may be tempted to call on him if the starting rotation struggles but he could use another full season in the minors before facing big league hitters.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Beltran compiled 1.2 WAR in 44 games with the Giants before jumping ship for a lucrative two-year contract with the St. Louis Cardinals. Assuming he stays healthy, Wheeler will have no issues surpassing the value (possibly in his rookie season) that the Giants organization squeezed out of Beltran. Wheeler has a legitimate shot at becoming a No. 1 or 2 starter at the MLB level.

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Boston Red Sox minor league second baseman Sean Coyle is a solid minor league prospect which is actually pretty rare for a player of his stature. In fact, in three years spent Scouting the Sally, only a handful of prospects have been worthy of more than a cursory look (Jose Altuve – HOU, Leury Garcia – TEX, Wilfredo Tovar – NYM) which speaks volumes about Coyle as a baseball player. However, as kind as it may seem on the surface to compare the best second baseman in the Red Sox system to the best second baseman in baseball – organization mate Dustin Pedroia – it’s pretty unfair to both players.

Video after the jump

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For more on the Venezuelan Winter League, check out Carson Cistulli’s final SCOUT leaderboards for said league.

With the MLB in the middle of its winter hiatus, we of the baseball-addicted must roll our listful eyes towards the winter leagues. One such league is the wildly popular Venezuelan Winter League. It is hard to say what exact level the Venezuelan league constitutes — but it certainly has a few veterans of both leagues, as well as a few MLB guys (though usually nobody who is already well established in the majors).

This year, Chicago Cubs fans have had the delight of being able to keep tabs on their… exciting… pitcher Carlos Zambrano. Big-Z — perhaps in an effort to ingratiate himself with the new Cubs regime, perhaps in a move to showcase his talents to the league — has now pitched five games for the Caribes de Anzoategui, but according to some recent rumors, Zambrano may be calling it a winter.

And maybe he should.
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The Boston Red Sox top prospects list has undergone an upheaval over last season’s like no other. Only one player in the Top 10 (Ryan Lavarnway) appeared on the list a year ago, which accounts for an unprecedented amount of movement. The list lost just one prospect to graduation (Josh Reddick) while the other eight players either lost value or were surpassed by more promising talent. The good news for the system is that it still has a fair bit of depth and some of the players who stumbled in 2011 could rebuild their prospect value in ’12.

1. Xander Bogaerts, 3B/SS
BORN: Dec. 1, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off

SCOUTING REPORT: Given his young age, Bogaerts’ season was a massive success. He displayed an advanced approach that should lead to him hitting for average down the line and he has good bat speed, which generates above-average power. Defensively he plays a solid shortstop but he’s expected to slow down and shift over to third base before he reaches the Majors. An interesting side note: Bogaerts’ twin Jair Bogaert spent 2011 playing for Boston Dominican Summer League team (He hit .288 in 47 games).

YEAR IN REVIEW: Bogaerts played the 2011 season in low-A ball at the age of 18 – although he spent the first half of the year in extended spring training. He showed uncanny power for his age with an ISO rate of .249, as well as impressive patience (8.4 BB%). He still has rough edges in his game and struggles with breaking balls, which helped lead to a strikeout rate of 24%.

YEAR AHEAD: The infielder could spend 2012 in high-A ball as a teenager, if Boston wants to continue to be aggressive with him. He’ll look to curb his strikeouts while ironing out the rough edges in his game. If he keeps up this pace Bogaerts could be playing in the Majors by the time he’s 21 years old.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Bogaerts has the potential to develop into a middle-of-the-order threat with 30+ home runs a possibility. He should remain on the left side of the infield but it probably won’t be at shortstop. The Aruba native will be a fun prospect to watch in 2012 and I imagine Boston considers him virtually untouchable.

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With each passing day, it becomes more likely prospect Tyler Pastornicky will open the 2012 season as the starting shortstop for one the National League’s best teams. As the Atlanta Braves continue their careful transition from present-to-future, providing a defensive anchor at shortstop will be key as the organization’s strength is in its young pitching.

However, for as good as Tyler Pastornicky was in 2011 across the double-A and triple-A levels, his success as a big leaguer is far from a sure thing. And this is what makes a scouting report on Pastornicky difficult to write. Was he young for the level of competition? Yes. Were his offensive numbers strong? Certainly, but Pastornicky does not scout as well as his age and overall offensive numbers would indicate. This is why it’s important to be blunt in stating I like the young shortstop more than most, but can already envision this piece being perceived as overly negative when compared to the notoriety Pastornicky has gained this off-season as a potential shortstop of the future for the Braves.

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Pitching is definitely the strength of the Milwaukee Brewers system. The organization has amassed an impressive group of arms in just the past two seasons. The club scored on two pitchers – Tyler Thornburg and Jimmy Nelson – in 2010 that many thought would crash and burn as starters in pro ball after flip-flopping between the rotation and bullpen in college. They then used two first round picks in 2011 to grab two of the more impressive college arms available to them in the 12-15 pick range. One knock on the system is the serious lack of high-ceiling bats.

1. Taylor Jungmann, RHP
BORN: Dec. 18, 1989
EXPERIENCE: College
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (12th overall), U of Texas
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

SCOUTING REPORT: Jungmann has the makings of a solid No. 2 or 3 starter at the Major League level if he can improve his secondary pitches: a slider and changeup. The right-hander’s main weapon is a heavy fastball that sits in the low 90s and touches the mid 90s. With a big, strong frame he has the potential to develop into an innings-eater but there is a little effort in his delivery that might need to be smoothed out.

YEAR IN REVIEW: The Texas alum didn’t play pro ball after signing, even though fellow first rounder Jed Bradley pitched in the Arizona Fall League. Jungmann had an impressive season in college, posting a 1.60 ERA in 141 innings of work.

YEAR AHEAD: Jungmann will likely be assigned to high-A ball where he’ll look to improve the command of his secondary offerings. He could reach double-A at some point in 2012.

CAREER OUTLOOK: It won’t be long before Jungmann joins fellow young hurlers Zack Greinke and Yovani Gallardo in the Milwaukee starting rotation. He should secure a permanent spot by 2013 and could have a long career with the Brewers.

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The Chicago White Sox system continues to be one of the weakest in the Majors. The front office and ownership cannot fault anyone but themselves for failing to invest in the amateur draft or the international market. On the plus side, the organization has lucked into a few interesting prospects like Addison Reed and Dylan Axelrod. Chicago doesn’t have a true No. 1 prospect, although Reed has value as a potential high-leverage reliever who is close to MLB ready – and the recently acquired Nestor Molina has a higher ceiling than most of the existing players in the Sox system.

1. Addison Reed, RHP
BORN: Dec. 27, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 3rd round, San Diego State University
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off

SCOUTING REPORT: It was a whirlwind season for Reed, who opened the year as an obscure, yet intriguing, pitcher. A teammate of Stephen Strasburg’s at San Diego State, you have to wonder if there’s something in the water there… as both pitchers went undrafted out of high school before seeing big-time velocity jumps in college. Reed pitches in the mid-90s with his fastball and can touch the upper-90s. He also has a slider that’s developing into a plus pitch.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Reed pitched at five levels in 2011, starting as low as low-A ball and ending in the Majors. It was a crazy ride for the pitcher that posted strikeout rates of 11.80 or higher at each stop. He also showed above-average control with walk rates below 2.00 BB/9 at each stop – save for one (2.61 BB/9 in 20.2 IP).

YEAR AHEAD: All told, Reed walked just 14 batters with 111 strikeouts in 78.1 innings in the minors. He basically has nothing left to prove in the minors and could very well be a key piece of the Sox bullpen in 2012. One thing he needs to watch out for, though, is the home run. He allowed just four all year but three came in triple-A and the Majors as his ground-ball rate diminished.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Reed has the demeanor to succeed as the go-to high-leverage reliever for Chicago and it was his emergence that likely lead to the trade of Sergio Santos to Toronto (for No. 2 prospect Nestor Molina). If Chicago so chooses, Reed and Molina could be a dominating late-game pair – although Molina has potential as a big league starter.

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