Archive for Minor Leagues

UPDATED: Oakland, Arizona Top 15 Prospect Lists

Oakland and Arizona recently completed a five-player trade that saw three prospects change hands. Oakland sent Major League pitchers Trevor Cahill and Craig Breslow to Arizona in return for prospects Jarrod Parker, Ryan Cook, and Collin Cowgill. Parker is definitely the best prospect acquired as neither Cook nor Cowgill made the D-Back’s original Top 15 list. Oakland, though, has less depth in their system so all three players can be found on the new list.

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Top 15 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies might not have a strong farm system, but it certainly is an intriguing one. Considering how much talent the organization had to give up to acquire the likes of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee (the first time), Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence, that’s an impressive accomplishment. And its perhaps even more impressive when you figure in the number of high draft picks the club has had to deal away to assemble its impact ensemble. Still, all those trades have definitely hurt this organization’s minor-league depth:

1. Trevor May, RHP
BORN: Sept. 23, 1989
EXPERIENCE: Four seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 fourth round, Washington HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Fifth

SCOUTING REPORT: May is a big, strong pitcher with a solid repertoire that includes a 90mph to 95 mph fastball. He also has a potentially plus curveball, a changeup and a new-found slider. His delivery gets out of whack at times, which causes his command to suffer. As a player from a cold-weather state, he’s always been a little behind prospects from sunny weather locales, such as California, Arizona and Florida — but he’s definitely playing catch-up now.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Brody Colvin took a step back in 2011, and Jarred Cosart was traded to Houston, so May’s breakout season was more than welcomed by the organization. The right-hander pitched a career high 144.1 innings and had a 2.69 FIP. He maintained an outstanding strikeout rate (12.10 K/9), but his control remained inconsistent (4.05 BB/9) — and that is the biggest thing preventing him from becoming an elite pitcher.

YEAR AHEAD: May will move up to double-A in 2012 and he isn’t far from contributing to the big-league team. Still, he needs to polish his secondary pitches and improve his control.

CAREER OUTLOOK: May has the potential to develop into a No. 2 starter – especially if he commands his fastball at the major-league level. He has the frame to become an innings-eater.

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Rhiner Cruz? 1st Pick? Seriously?

In seeing Rhiner Cruz‘ name as the top pick in this year’s Rule 5 draft, my first thought was this would be the last time I ever spent a tangible amount of time prepping for it. In a moment of clarity, the Houston Astros helped me understand just how important the Rule 5 draft is NOT.

Even after reading Adam Foster’s piece breaking down Rule 5 draft picks between 2007-2010 which hammers home the fact players selected essentially have zero value on average, I was still hopeful for something…. anything worthy of excitement from a prospect perspective.

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Top 15 Prospects: Oakland Athletics

Despite all the media attention around its drafting philosophies over the years, the Oakland Athletics organization really doesn’t have a great record with the amateur draft. Yes, the club has nabbed some intriguing players – such as Michael Choice and Grant Green – but the depth is definitely lacking. One current area of strength with the organization is the international scouting staff; the back half of the Top 15 list is littered with high-ceiling athletes.

1. Michael Choice, OF
BORN: Nov. 10, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 1st round (10th overall), U of Texas-Arlington
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 3rd

SCOUTING REPORT: Choices’ No. 1 tool is his power, which could some day rate as a 70 on the scouting scale. His pull-conscious approach and big swing could lead to a lot of strikeouts. He has decent speed, which plays well in the outfield. He’s seen time mostly in center field during his pro career to this point but will likely move to right field where his arm will play well.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Choice, who recently turned 22, enjoyed the offensive environment in the California League and slugged 30 home runs in 467 at-bats. His ISO rate sat at .257 after Choice also flashing above-average power in his small sample size debut in 2010 (.343 ISO). He hit .285 in ’11 but had a healthy BABIP and a 25% strikeout rate in the upper levels of the minors will likely result in lower averages. Even if he doesn’t hit for average Choice has added value because he gets on base a lot (11.3 BB%).

YEAR AHEAD: The slugger will move up to double-A in 2012 and look to trim his strikeout rate while also keeping up the power output. Choice could reach the Majors in the second half of the season – especially after such a strong Arizona Fall League (six homers in 17 games, .318 average).

CAREER OUTLOOK: Choice has the potential to develop into a middle-of-the-order hitter – something the Major League club could really use. He should also have some defensive value.

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Opportunity May Knock for Cubs’ Josh Vitters

Since being drafted third overall in the 2007 draft, few prospects have developed in more disappointing fashion than Chicago Cubs third base prospect Josh Vitters. Once considered an elite player with baseball skills including 70 power and hit tools, Vitters has stumbled to a .277/.319/.439 triple slash line across five minor league seasons. Due to these struggles, Vitters’ status as a prospect has slipped as 2011 was the first where he failed to make the Baseball America top-100.

However, 2011 also saw Vitters post his best numbers since the 2009 season in the Southern League at 21. With a .283/.322/.448 line, he has at least placed himself in a position to compete for the Cubs third base job now that Aramis Ramirez is a free agent and extremely unlikely to return to Chicago. For Vitters, the stars seem to be aligning perfectly as the Theo Epstein era, combined with his being placed on the 40-man roster equals a fresh start in an organization where the term “bust” had already been thrown around pretty liberally.

Video after the jump

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Top 15 Prospects: Chicago Cubs

Chicago is a tough, tough system to rank. Outside of the Top 2 players I had about 20-25 guys that could easily have ranked in the remainder of the Top 15. The system is loaded with intriguing B- and C-level prospects that could either explode in 2012 or completely fall off the radar. Some of the guys that missed included Junior Lake, Ryan Flaherty, Aaron Kurcz, Shawon Dunston Jr., Zeke DeVoss, Marco Hernandez, and Dallas Beeler.

1. Javier Baez, SS
BORN: Dec. 1, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 1 season (Rookie)
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (9th overall), Florida HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

SCOUTING REPORT: There weren’t many people that thought Baez would fulfill his commitment to Jacksonville University and a ninth overall selection by the Cubs (along with a $2.6 million bonus) ensured that the dynamic infielder entered pro ball. Baez is a strong fielder with a powerful arm, although scouts are concerned that his range may diminish too much for him to stick at shortstop long term. At the plate, he has plus raw power thanks to his above-average bat speed.

YEAR IN REVIEW: The Puerto Rico native, who played high school ball in Florida, appeared in just five regular season games after signing. He held his own in brief cameos in both the Arizona rookie league and the more advanced Northwest League. Baez will turn 19 in December.

YEAR AHEAD: Because he already had a taste of the Northwest League, Baez will probably begin 2012 in low-A ball. There are whispers that Baez carries a bit of a poor attitude and is aloof so it will be interesting to see how he handles life in the low minors as a millionaire teenager.

CAREER OUTLOOK: If he keeps his head on straight, Baez has all the ingredients necessary to become a top flight MLB shortstop or third baseman (if he looses too much range). With some minor tweaks to his approach, he could very well develop into a middle-of-the-order hitter.

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Minor League Free Agent Watch List

As an observer — I hesitate to call myself a fan since becoming a writer — of a team that’s constantly looking for reasonably-priced free agents, I always find minor league free agency particularly fascinating. A couple weeks ago, Baseball America unveiled a comprehensive list of the players available via minor league free agency.

Essentially, these are minor leaguers who have spent the requisite time in the minor leagues without being added to the 40-man roster (based on draft status), or are veterans who signed one-year deals and will test the choppy waters once again. BA does a very good job of summarizing the process after the jump.

A number of noteworthy players on the list have already signed, like Matt Antonelli and Matt Fox. Nonetheless, here are a few of the names I’ll be keeping an eye on:

RP Garrett Mock

Mock has shown good strikeout rates across his entire career, including a 7.8 rate in the minors and an 8.0 mark across three star-crossed seasons in the nation’s capital. After missing nearly the entire 2010 campaign due to a neck injury, it appears as though Mock’s future will lie in someone’s bullpen, where his strikeout rates will likely suit him well. It doesn’t hurt that he spins a pretty good slider, either. He’ll probably have to settle for a minor league deal and spend some time on the farm proving his neck is healthy, but he could be a nice surprise in someone’s bullpen before the end of the 2012 season.

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Top 15 Prospects: Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles minor league system definitely lacks depth and the talent starts to erode after the first three prospects on the Top 15 list. With that said, the first two prospects in particular have monster ceilings and could develop into elite players at the MLB level. With a new front office and a new direction, it will be interesting to see what changes are to come for Baltimore’s minor league development system in 2012.

1. Dylan Bundy, RHP
BORN: Nov. 15, 1992
EXPERIENCE: High School
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (fourth overall), Oklahoma HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

SCOUTING REPORT: Bundy was arguably the best pitcher available in the 2011 draft but the right-hander slipped to the Orioles at No. 4, joining his brother – and fellow Top 15 prospect – Bobby Bundy in the organization. The younger Bundy easily has the better stuff with a mid-to-high-90s fastball, curveball, cutter and changeup. He has above-average pitchability and command for his age. He definitely doesn’t have the biggest frame but also has a smooth, effortless delivery that should help him stay healthy.

YEAR IN REVIEW: It was a huge year for Oklahoma with two prep pitchers – Bundy and his friend Archie Bradley (Diamondbacks) – being selected within the first seven picks of the draft. Fellow prep pitchers Michael Fulmer (Mets) went in the supplemental first round and Adrian Houser (Astros) was nabbed in the second. Even Bundy’s catcher at Owasso High School, Drew Stiner, was selected and signed with the Giants as a 43rd round pick. The Orioles first rounder signed too late to make his pro debut in 2011.

YEAR AHEAD: Bundy is probably advanced enough to open his career in high-A ball but the organization won’t be that aggressive with him; he should start out in low-A ball. Baltimore pushed top offensive prospects Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop with mid-season promotions from low-A to high-A in 2011 but it remains to be seen if the minor league staff would be willing to push a young arm through a similar timetable. It’s important to keep in mind that the club lacks pitching depth in the system but, at the same time, it will be at least a few years before the big league club is anywhere near ready to compete for the AL East division title.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Because he’s such an advanced pitcher, Bundy may need no more than two to three years in the minors before making his MLB debut. The teenager has all the necessary ingredients to develop into a No. 1 starter at the MLB level. The only thing he really lacks is premium size/pitcher’s frame at 6’1” 200 lbs.

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Top 15 Prospects: Arizona Diamondbacks

Pitching has become the indisputable strength of the Arizona Diamondbacks system. The Top 10 features seven pitchers and the first four have ceilings of No. 1 or 2 starters. Despite having a bevy of high picks in the 2009 amateur draft and using most of them on hitters, Arizona lacks premium offensive prospects after many of those selections faltered or grew significant warts. All in all, though, this is an impressive system that just needs a little more depth to become elite. *Reliever Bryan Shaw was not considered a prospect due to service time.

1. Trevor Bauer, RHP
BORN: Jan. 17, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 1 season (Played at A+/AA in ’11)
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round, UCLA (3rd overall)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

SCOUTING REPORT: Bauer was selected third overall in the 2011 draft and had the talent to be taken first overall, so Arizona was no doubt thrilled to get him. He has a diverse repertoire that includes a fastball that can touch the mid-90s, a plus curveball, slider, and changeup. He’s already established himself as a workhorse pitcher, pitching 100+ innings in each of his three seasons at UCLA. Bauer has an unorthodox delivery that worries some scouts while others point to Tim Lincecum as an example of someone who made “different” work out pretty darn well.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Arizona’s No. 1 prospect posted an eye-popping 1.25 ERA with 203 Ks in 136.2 innings during his junior season at UCLA. He then signed with the Diamondbacks in time to make seven starts in the minors. All told, he pitched more than 160 innings in 2011, which is why he did not head off to the Arizona Fall League with a lot of the other top college picks. Bauer had some success in pro ball by striking out a lot of batters. His 7.56 ERA (3.44 FIP) in four double-A starts was tainted by a BABIP-allowed of .429 (as well as the small-sample size). The right-hander struggled a bit with his control (4.32 BB/9).

YEAR AHEAD: It’s unclear what plans the organization currently has for Bauer. A safe bet would be to see him begin the year in double-A, pitching along side Tyler Skaggs. There was some talk of Bauer making his MLB debut in 2011 but it ultimately did not happen. Chances are good that fans in Arizona will be treated to his first big league appearance in 2012. He’s not far at all from being MLB-ready.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Bauer has the makings of a No. 1 starter and should be no worse than a No. 2, assuming he stays healthy – and there is no reason to suspect that he won’t. Arizona currently has a very exciting crop of young pitchers filtering up through the system right now and it shouldn’t be long before Bauer sits atop the starting rotation, followed by Jarrod Parker, Skaggs, and Pat Corbin – with Archie Bradley a few steps behind.

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Top 15 Prospects: Minnesota Twins

When it comes to developing in-house talent, Minnesota has a reputation for being rather conservative with the annual amateur draft, both in terms of investment dollars and in the type of player that the organization gravitates towards. In recent years, the club has supplemented its amateur draft talent with a foray into the international free agent market. So far, it’s working out well for the Twins with four international free agent signees among the Top 10 prospects, and another drafted out of Puerto Rico.

1. Miguel Sano, 3B/SS
BORN: May 11, 1993
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons (Reached Rookie+ in ’11)
ACQUIRED: 2009 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 3rd

SCOUTING REPORT: Sano is sandwiched between Joe Mauer and B.J. Garbe for second place on the list of the highest bonuses handed out to amateurs by the Minnesota Twins ball club. Thankfully for Minnesota, Sano appears to have a little more Mauer in him than Garbe. He has outstanding bat speed and a smooth stroke that should eventually lead to 70 power on the 20-80 scouting scale. Defensively, he’s outgrown shortstop and there is some concern that he might also eventually get too slow for third base (He’s 6’3 230 lbs now). Sano should provide enough offense for first base but it would definitely hurt his defensive value.

YEAR IN REVIEW: The infielder had an explosive offensive season while spending his second year in short-season rookie ball and he’s definitely ready for the next challenge. His power output was off the charts with a .345 ISO rate but he had the strikeout rate to match (26.3%). His batting average was helped by a healthy BABIP and he’s not going to continue to hit .290-.300 if he keeps whiffing at the same rate. Sano did not excell defensively at either third base (15 errors in 48 games) or shortstop (11 errors in 16 games).

YEAR AHEAD: Sano will look to continue to refine his approach, which includes improving against breaking balls. He’ll be playing in a less offense-oriented league so it will be interesting to see what his power numbers look like by the end of the season. Defense is something he’ll definitely want to focus on and it remains to be seen how long the organization sticks with him on the left side of the infield.

CAREER OUTLOOK: As mentioned, Sano could very well outgrow the hot corner and move to first base (or possibly left field). A right side of the infield featuring Sano and Eddie Rosario could be quite exciting. Don’t be shocked if he becomes one of the top prospects in all of baseball before too long… and eventually a star player with a middle-of-the-order bat for Minnesota.

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